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Odyssey Marine Exploration, Inc. (OMEX)

NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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6.80+0.37 (+5.75%)
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  • R
    Ricky 47
    The Memorial was filed. The Mexican govt and their attorneys are reading through it. Then there will be meetings in the Secretaria de Economia and the ministers there will start scrambling because the strenght and size of the claim will become very clear to them. And they will sweat because they realize that if they don't make this go away Mexico could face a massive bill. There will be more meetings to decide on a strategy and they will approach the company with an offer. That offer could come any day now, or it could be in several months. It might not come at all if Mexico decides to roll the dice and buy Don Diego from OMEX at a price that the arbitrators set, but Mexico isn't cash rich and this is not a likely outcome. If there's a hint that Mexico is starting to deal, this stock will be at $12 the next morning. Should be fun to watch.
  • R
    Rock
    What is a reasonable fraction to use for estimating the share price based solely on the award sought? I guessed 20% of the award flowing to the company bottom line and that yielded a share price of $48. Sound about right? Assume 40% and you get $96. Somewhere in there.
  • R
    Ricky 47
    Interesting action yesterday when the stock closed at $6 on volume of only 25k shares (which is really 12.5k because nasdaq double counts due to market maker)...shorts sold around 12k shares short that day, so they accounted for ALL of the selling in the stock. Either they keep selling to keep the stock depressed until the next catalyst (am hoping for this) or they step away and the stock rebounds (as happened today). Either way they are cooked and we are watching VERY closely!!!
  • P
    Patrick
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.eluniversal.com.mx/english/victor-toledo-steps-down-environment-ministry-after-controversial-audio-leak%3famp

    The head of Semarnat resigned a couple days ago. He felt the government was trying to push for more agribusiness in opposition to his environmentalist mandate. This should increase the chances of a settlement with Mexico regarding Don Diego as its phosphate is surely coveted by those in the AMLO administration pushing for more agribusiness.
    The decision to remove Toledo stems from his criticism towards the federal government
    The decision to remove Toledo stems from his criticism towards the federal government
    www.google.com
    Bullish
  • f
    flip
    The NAFTA hearing is not scheduled until 2022! Way to go legal team, that is showing them what for.....6 years after the fact. Get ready to live with more disappointment.
  • R
    Roger R.
    Short sellers DID NOT COVER at all last week. Data from Friday shows no covering.
  • j
    john
    two potential paths forward for the company, each with different implications for Odyssey’s share price. One involves some sort of agreement with the Mexican government that would grant the company the ability to operate the Don Diego concession. In this case we expect the initial reaction in OMEX shares to reach $20 (with a 24-month target around $37 to $40). The other path results in an arbitration award by the NAFTA Chapter 11 tribunal. In this case the amount of the award will determine share price – a full award would put OMEX around $230 per share. The scatterplot diagram below applies different resolution amounts on an after-tax basis to OMEX’s fully-diluted share count to calculate the resulting share value.
  • b
    bulldog
    @Dave C You don't really have a grasp of this. Oceanica vis a vis Odyssey Marine
  • T
    Trev
    Hi @Dave C . For some odd reason your post has disappeared where you told us that OMEX would be back to 4 or 5 today. I'm just wondering if you're looking for a late day swoon in the stock? You must be shorting this thing like crazy today, right? I mean what an opportunity for a sophisticated and awesome trader like yourself. Thanks again for sharing all of your superspectacular trading insights with us!
  • b
    bulldog
    Interesting press release, especially on the make up of the recent equity transaction holders. Very interesting, and now I understand better why the stock rallied so much, besides the fact that OMEX is set financially for 2-3+ years.
  • D
    Dave C
    This should help the negotiations.

    President López Obrador issued a challenge to his detractors Tuesday: he will resign if 100,000 people attend a protest against him and opinion polls show that he has lost support.

    “How are authoritarian governments overthrown? With the people, with large protests; people go out to the street – hundreds, thousands, millions. In my case, at the first protest of 100,000 and when I see that I don’t have support in the polls, [I’ll go] to Palenque, Chiapas. I won’t even wait for the revocation of mandate [vote],” the president told reporters at his morning news conference. September 29, 2020
  • A
    Anonymous
    I may have missed it, but did the GR article make any mention of the other 2 parcels OMEX has the mineral rights to? They have the rights to the parcels immediately north and south of the existing one. What are they worth? When will they be assayed? Could those parcels be worth as much or more than Don Diego?
  • R
    Ricky 47
    Huge omex research report on this site. https://www.hvst.com/posts/arbitration-arbitrage-w8WTxQV0
    Describes an effort to arbitrage the differential between the private and public valuation of Odyssey Marine's arbitration claim vs. Mexico over the company's Don Diego phosphate concession.
    Describes an effort to arbitrage the differential between the private and public valuation of Odyssey Marine's arbitration claim vs. Mexico over the company's Don Diego phosphate concession.
    www.hvst.com
    Bullish
  • T
    Trev
    Hey Dave and Abdul and M and other shorts. How about you give us a good run down on the the short call on omex today. Convince us as best u can that this stock should be shorted here. I want you to give it your best shot and I promise not to ridicule you, I just want to see the best arguments you can muster. Cool?
  • E
    Eohippus
    Nice to see some good news for a change. The financing keeps them solvent until this is resolved one way or the other. Best result we could have hoped for. Hopefully this gets resolved in a more timely manner now. I still wonder if they will just sell the company to someone who has real expertise in phosphate dredging and walk away with some money for themselves and share owners.
  • T
    Trev
    Serious responses only: why doesn't this stock hit $14 or $15 on a squeeze? Shorts are getting a bit covered today but they're competing with a lot of new people who are coming into the name now so i don't think they get a lot covered. They are fried and have no where to go. What do u peeps think?
  • P
    Patrick
    $11 million-plus equity financing gets Odyssey Marine (OMEX) well past arbitration goal line. $3.54 billion NAFTA claim is unusually strong per lawyers and arbitration finance professionals.
    $11 million-plus equity financing gets Odyssey Marine (OMEX) well past arbitration goal line. $3.54 billion NAFTA claim is unusually strong per lawyers and arbitration finance professionals.
    seekingalpha.com
  • w
    wallywall
    Here's the thing about the short squeeze.....no sane person would be short this stock going into the arbitration ruling, so the shorts have maybe 18 months to cover. Seems like lots of time - no reason to panic. But the thing is that once things get quiet volume is going to dry up and it's going to take a long time to cover. That aint the worst of it. We're all going to be watching the short position like hawks looking for supper. When shorts start to whittle down the short interest, sellers of the stock are going to notice and they'll just disappear and things could get ugly for shorts. Some say "shorts don't care they've made a ton" - that could be true, but no one likes losing money and anyone who has been short omex for the last four years has lost money because the stock is basically flat and they've paid 20%/yr to borrow. Even if the position is still a winner, it's much less of a winner at $15 or $40 and that's going to take a bite outta performance. It's not a good time to be short omex period. That doesn't mean they need to cover anytime soon - but the longer they wait, the harder it's going to get to shed the entire position before omex gets a ruling or a deal with the mexicans.
  • J
    JAMES
    Who is purchasing the stock? With all the negativity going on this site, I wonder if negs are purchasing the stock.