The FED has reversed and is now "easing". M2 up $100 billion vs prior week Balance sheet up $10 billion Reverse Repo down (good) $27 billion Free Bank reserves up $11 billion Monetary base up $121 billion and up y/y for the first time many years.
The FED has recognized the macro weakness and funneled "juice" into the economy-they know they cannot continue to tighten in the face of softening data. The big questions will be? 1)How long will they do this? 2)How long will it take the economy to respond?
In the interim, we have some market indicators on the recent liquidity injection. 1)The DXY is at 15 month lows and 2)The broader stock averages continue to melt up
This backdrop, if the FED stays the "easing" course for a few weeks/months will good for gold/silver, other commodities and stocks.
Given ADTN's excellent response to recent earnings news, the "market" is starved for ideas that have not already been played. If WSTL, and KTCC can offer up good numbers and/or guidance-they will rocket.
Hi Commandor, can you share your current thoughts on OIIM? Currently at 1.85. As always, thanks for sharing.
Commandor, what is your take on Harmonic slashing Q2 outlook? I remember you saying you may be a buyer below $5. Interested in your thoughts. Have a great weekend
If we are to go off the RSI then you could argue that a pull back next day or so could occur on PCTI before rallying up. google AWE-some.Stocks - they offer pretty good trade alerrts. you dont have to trade their tickers but it definetly helps you recognize possible patterns for stocks you're trading.
Missing reading Commanders thoughts about the markets.
Thank you Commandor for introducing me to RSI an easy way to check to see if a stock is oversold/overbought. It seems every time I sell a stock that I own with a RSI over 80 that it has turned out to be the correct decision.
Any ideas why this popped a little today?
I wonder if pcti will spend another half million buying calculators? or on fountain pens?
Although it may be a little early, I think the reward/risk is now favorable in the oils. Bought DVN at $34.50 and BBG at $3.65 today.
X axis : Stocks Price Correlation Coefficient Y axis : Quantity of stocks Sep-2016 1,000 Day Parameter 2,830 NASDAQ Stocks Price Analysis This stock mode of correlation coefficient is -0.2 In other words, the correlation coefficient of the other stoc
WSTL was originally going to report after the close today, but did so before the open. They made $.02/share non-gaap on $15.4 million in sales-breakeven is generally around $15 million. With net/net at $.60/share, the business is almost selling for free. I bought 80,000 more this morning at $.64-$.68/share.
W?R to KTCC. There has been a consistent seller since latest earnings report. With about 15,000 crossing in the low $6.80s, it appears that seller is now completely out. I picked some at $6.82, the intra-day low was $6.81, so with 34,000 shares trading yesterday, 5/17, that may have been KTCC's selling climax. Would love to see some insider buying in the coming weeks.
CPI data for April was actually quite weak at .2%. If it weren't for a tax increase of smokes in Calif., it would have been it would have been .1%. Also, core CPI ex-shelter was up only .75%. If ex-shelter/health could be measured, I suspect it would have been close to 0. The point I'm making is the consumer has little purchasing power outside of the necessities-shelter and health taking up a large % of spending to the exclusion of everything else.
In recent weeks/months: 1)Loans have been flat to lower 2)Commodities indexes down 5-9% 3)Oil net down
This is all in an environment where last year inflationary pressures were building as oil prices doubled off the 2/16 lows and China fiscal and monetary stimulus. So, going out from now through early summer y/y CPI comparisons will get narrower with perhaps a print of 1% y/y CPI, core or headline, after the FED increases rates next month to 1%. This is going to set off: 1)Bond market rally 2)Deflationary scare 3)Profit scare as top line forecasts will be in doubt-SPX sell off 100+ points 4)Perhaps a weaker $ as our interest rates fall while Euro-Zone rates flat line or go higher-there are still a few countries that have bonds with negative yields.
At that time, late summer/early fall, the FED will panic to add liquidity, so will the PBOC. Stocks, commodities will all get much stronger as inflationary expectations will quickly return-partly because the FED will be adding liquidity while the DXY is at a much lower level. The SPX will make new highs above 2500, gold/silver will rally big all will be fine for a few months until the inflation numbers get above 2% again y/y-putting the FED back in play to tighten. When the FED does tighten, perhaps early 2018, then we get a 30% sell off in stocks. If I'm right, we will see, in the coming weeks: 1)TLT rallies into mid 120s 2)10yr-2yr goes below 100 3)DXY down below 97
As always, just one man's opinion.
Hi Commandor. Could you give me your thoughts on IVTY? As always thanks. I may buy some.
Currently, the "market" cares little that the Chinese bond market inverted, the 5 yr got to 3.71% vs the 10 yr was at 3.68. In any case both 5yr and 10 year are at 40 month high yields since 1/14. Bottom line, the PBOC is tightening and that should put a damper or world aggregate demand-at the margin-hence why commodities have been so soft in recent weeks.
Optical stocks have been warning about soft Chinese demand for the 2ndQ-I suspect that softness will broaden to other technology sectors.
Took gains in KVHI today at $9.85-2ndQ guidance was too soft for me. Will be a buyer again under $8, after insider buying.
what? pcti paid half a million for an IP phone system. They could have done it for $50,000 for company this size. don't they have half the people in China? They don't understand technology.
What a bloodbath... no wonder "management" did not pay (their own) bonuses in pcti shares... in the meantime, suckers were content buying the hype and the rumors....
isn't the doctor still taking a 315k salary with benefits for not showing up? if he didn't draw a salary, there could have been a profit.
Well,well. For those of you who could not hear the call (link didn't work) here is the summary/translation:
* As usual, antennas is going nowhere but at least it's not going down right now. * We had a couple of one-offs in scanners and are praying everyday that they repeat. * Following the doctor's tradition, we needed a scapegoat, namely services. They better "rectify" by Q3 or else! Did you guys notice how many times we said rectify? LOL * We are switching to flex-work:i.e. more layoffs on the way but you guessed it right, never at the top... * Our "great" future is now small cells and firstnet. No more 5G (sorry Oldsmobile58) or that DAS explosion (sorry Doctor) * Dear investors, please rest assured management has your best interested at heart. How else would we find the time to buy a new $500K phone system in the middle of all this?
All in all, it can be said that the doctor did unfortunately leave a sort of "legacy." Not too mention all the "buddies" still there: operations v, product mg, marketing dr, sales v imported from the middle east for no other reason, etc.
The doctor may continue his rumors to unload the suckers' expense but "make no mistake" this is a dog. Pure and simple.