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7.56-0.11 (-1.43%)
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  • C
    Obviously gold/silver getting hammered and the 50% retracement of the low in March of $1450 and the high in Aug of 2075 has not held. The next retracement would be 62% or about $1690, with the expectation that a grab for liquidity sell off could take gold down to $1650ish.

    2/26 in Asian trading, Bank of Australia and Bank of Japan increased QE to contain the sell off in their bond markets. The FED will have to do the same, but as posted earlier will wait for some more "pain".

    In the interim, I continue to buy gold/silver stocks, reducing 0% yielding cash into stocks that yield 1.5-3.0+%
  • C
    With interest rates spiking, we are getting a little bit of what I was looking for. Interest rates are up because;

    1) Higher inflation is anticipated
    2) Increased supply of treasuries is overwhelming the size of the FED's QE program

    The question, in the coming weeks/months, will be: how much "pain" will the FED tolerate before they increase QE?

    Pain will come from falling stock prices, slowing housing and auto sectors, lowering of GDP and earnings estimates for 2021.

    Going to put out guestimates:

    1)S&P 500 falls to 3450-3500
    2)Gold down to $1650ish, Silver down to $22.00.
    3)US 10 year up to 1.80%
    4)Inflation May/June will be 4% headline, 3% core.

    I am a buyer of physical gold/silver at the above prices along with stocks. Will wait to see what bargains show up in stocks. However, once the FED increases QE, gold/silver make new highs and the S&P 500 goes to 4300-4500 by the 1stH of 2022.
  • C
    As expected soft guidance for the 1st Q-$17.5-$18.5 million in sales, loss of $.03/share to breakeven vs consensus of EPS of $.04.

    A 2ndH rebound was suggested my mgt. I am a buyer, but under $6.00 and no hurry.
  • C
    The FED has decided to make available to the public, M2 on a monthly basis, vs weekly. Last year, the FED changed monetary base date from every two weeks to monthly. Seems the advent of faster computer capabilities has the FED going in to "disguise" mode vs greater disclosure.

    My sense is the FED does not want the market to know what they are doing as far as interventions on a weekly basis, so the FED can hide what they are doing for a longer time. Ultimately bullish for gold/silver as "trust" will dwindle.

    Kind of sad, the American empire is being destroyed brick by brick.
  • C
    Continuing the CCRN story, THC had blowout numbers for the 4th Q-echoing HCA's results. Of course, all it is is CCRN's customers are flush with cash and cash flow. Demand for medical services is strong and returning normalcy should be additive to C19 patient census, increasing the demand for medical staffing. We will see in a couple weeks, AMN's results are next week.
  • C
    Curious week for G/S the week end 2/12. Gold up about $10, silver up about $.40, from 2/5 closes, the DXY was down, yet the GDX and GDXJ were only slightly up and down respectively. Money managers could have been repositioning their portfolios and been net sellers of G/S stocks. Given that silver drew in some fast money with a spike to over $30.00 on 2/1, some of that hot money could have wanted out of a "momentum" trade that didn't work.

    Of my 7 G/S indicators, as of 2/12 close, 3 were bullish. 3 were neutral and 1 bearish. G/S stocks are the only area I have been net accumulating since Thanksgiving, when all 7 turned bullish. My only concern to buying more is a grab for liquidity sell off that would take everything down.

    What will do that? A big jump in interest rates. The US 10 year ended at 1.21% a multi-month high with a backdrop of inflation expectations on the rise. If it weren't for QE, the US 10 year should be fairly close to nominal GDP. 2021 GDP estimates are anywhere from 4-7%, add 2% inflation-which is a low estimate-and the US 10 year should be at 6-9%.

    This gives you an idea, the magnitude of just how distorted interest rates are vs pre-2008-9, pre-QE time periods.

    Bottom line, the US 10 year could spike to 2-3% and still not even be close to where it should be. Obviously, the big question is what interest breaks all the "mo" trades in: stocks, commodities, crytos, real estate, high yield bonds etc.

    It will happen this year, could be soon. A catalyst could be continued oil price increases as the "market" has discovered a net short position there. If interest rates go up, the the DXY could go up, sending G/S down as well.
  • C
    I was a net seller of silver positions into the Reddit squeeze-by selling PAASF and SII.

    Otherwise, PBOC added liquidity on Monday and Tuesday to take their O/N repo interest rate down from around 3.65% (inverted yield curve) to 2.35% (normalized yield curve), so that concern was eliminated.

    The only position I have added to, in recent days, is CCRN under $9.00. In rereading their 3rd Q CC, their competitor's AMN and AMN's upped guidance, I draw the conclusion that demand for medical staffing is strong, will continue to be strong with CCRN and AMN having control over some supply.

    In the short run, that should increase top line, spreads and EPS. Consensus on CCRN is $190/$.08 vs I think they will do $200+/$.10-$.15 for the 4th Q.

    If I read the HCA press release correctly, their cash flow for the 4th Q was up from $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion year over year. That suggests hospitals are flush with cash, so can and will spend to staff their facilities to serve C19 and an increasing normalized elective and emergency businesses.

    The limit for CCRN's and AMN's business is getting enough medical staff themselves-that will be a continuing problem. But the backdrop looks to be excellent with demand strong, customers are flush with cash. From a valuation standpoint, AMN sells for 1.1X sales, CCRN is at .4. CCRN could double as still not be valued as high as AMN. It is my view, the founder of CCRN came back to lead this company (1/2018) to eventually dress it up for sale. Right now, if an offer were made, CCRN would fetch mid to high teens.
  • C
    2/4 missed getting PAAS under $30 today, but did buy some OR at $10.70. Gold/silver getting hammered, but holding will above the pre-Thanksgiving lows. $ is strong and likely to get stronger as there is a short squeeze going on there and the prospect of higher gold prices.

    For months, I have been expecting a grab for liquidity sell off and for months I have been wrong, so have been way too conservative. However, going out the next few months, there is no doubt in my mind that inflation is heading significantly higher, which will drive interest rates higher. The big question will be, at what level does the US 10 year have to get to, to put downward pressure on stocks? Lots of guesses out there.

    Should I be eventually correct, that the grab for liquidity eventually comes-higher interest rates maybe the cause- then I can see gold breaking lower to $1650ish and silver down to $20. That will be time to buy physical gold and silver in addition to loading up on the stocks.

    My larger point, keep good amounts of liquidity to be an opportunistic buyer.
  • b
    Congrats Commandor on CCRN that is up 25% AHs' on a great earnings report.
  • M
    This is the wrong PCTI... the right one is under the ticker OZSC they have a subsidiary under PCTI... OZSC is the company exponentially growing in the EV charging and storage market. With partnerships with wesco and zeem. Tesla coming and equity partner coming soon. With much more on the table with military contracts ect. #OZSC
  • I
    Just bought more shares for a discount, have high hopes for this stock in the near future
  • C
    While there has been quit a bit of excitement in US markets this week, in China their overnight repo rate has climbed to a 6 year high at 3.58%, the 10 year is 3.22%. As the PBOC has drained liquidity, their yield curve has inverted.

    It may mean nothing, but it could be big if this situation continues to exist and the financial markets "sniff" out China GDP slowing down and/or PBOC continued tightening. Maybe Sunday night, the PBOC adds liquidity to "correct" their yield curve, but if not markets "sniff" out a slowing of the reflation trade.

    Implication: Stocks down hard the 1st week of Feb.
  • C
    Sold a lot of VIRT above $27.50-down to only 20% of original position. Fundamentals are getting better, but risk of "transaction" tax increases.
  • A
    Today is turning into a great day all of a sudden! Still no idea what is going on. No SEC filings, no press releases, nothing on their website. Massive volume after hours.
  • q
    current management of pctel has no clue on how to turn the company around. they are just feeding at the trough at investors expense. if they had a clue about business and industry they would have put the 41 million to use by now.
  • b
    Silver holders hit the jackpot today as Reddit users found a new market to bid up. Congrats Commandor.
  • E
    Haha you guys you invested in the wrong PCTI. OZSC is the one that closed the partnership with Zeem to make EV stations. Not this PCTI. OZSC owns a company called PCTI that will be doing the work.
  • R
    Can anyone then please explain why the same stock reaction happened to Airgain - AIRG at the same time today?

    AIRG is a competitor to PCTEL so it seems like there is some news out for the sector....
  • C
    Since massive applications of QE by central banks, starting late 2008/early 2009, interest rates have been net/net moving lower with negative yielding debt peeking around $18 trillion, currently now about negative $16.5 trillion. Negative interest rates are implicitly a destruction in capital-pay $1000 for a bond now and get $995 in 10 years, Germany example. Nuts and violates all historical norms.

    In the interim, the "market" has been massively bidding up assets that cash flow or are inflation hedges. Of course, all of this is obvious, but what is the big picture?

    I think money is "looking" at the destruction of fiat currencies and wants to be in anything that cash flows and/or is an inflation hedge. Inflation hasn't been much of an issue, but now parts of the bond market are "predicting" inflation rising to levels not seen in 7 years.

    Increased budget deficits by the largest governments around the world are a backdrop of continuing and/or increasing QE-Australia just increased their QE on 2/2, which I think was the catalyst for the big rally on that day.

    As inflationary expectations and official government CPI/PPI numbers continue to rise, interest rates are doing the same. Such that at some point stocks will come under pressure, economies will slow down (interest rate sensitive sectors), budget deficits will rise and pressure will come to bear on central banks to increase QE for yield curve control.

    Man, won't that be the green light for gold/silver-won't be looking back either. Sometime later this decade, gold and the Dow 30 will be at the same level. Going to be fun.
  • C
    Soon, maybe a couple hours, buyers of 1.5+ million shares of PCTI will figure out that they have bought the wrong company-relative to yesterday's news of OZSC. The question will become, how long will it take for them to bail in size to drive PCTI back to the $6.50 area.

    The shot that something else is brewing is if AIRG is going to make a run at PCTI for .4 to .5/share. AIRG, could throw in a little cash, but the best play would be to use their overvalued stock to expand their business.

    Otherwise, PCTI will come under significant selling pressure in the coming days.