|Day's Range||18.30 - 18.30|
After Tuesday's big rally, Wednesday's session was muted most of the day, but it wasn't boring. What moved the Nasdaq today? As is typically the case on FOMC meeting days, the Federal Reserve was on everyone's radar.Source: Shutterstock While the market was pricing in a roughly 25% chance of a rate cut this month, it was no surprise that the Fed held steady. But that doesn't mean they will continue to do so going forward. According to the Fed Funds futures, there's a 77% chance that the Fed will cut rates next month. Further, the market is pricing in a 62% chance that the Fed cuts twice by its September meeting.On some level, that feels bearish given that the Fed shouldn't be cutting rates in a healthy environment. That said, with the U.S. economy mostly humming along, investors don't want to fight the Fed. If it's willing to be accommodative and dovish, investors don't want to be stubborn.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips * 5 Top Stock Trades for Thursday: UBER, JBL, ADBE, SHOP That can be a boon for tech stocks, which tend to thrive in a low interest rate environment. If that ends up being the case, look for the PowerShares QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) to benefit. Wednesday's WinnersChip stocks, like Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) held up well on Wednesday after Tuesday's powerful rally. Should the trade-war rhetoric continue to improve, the semiconductors should continue to see upside.Adobe Systems (NASDAQ:ADBE) jumped more than 5% in Wednesday's session, after the company beat on earnings and revenue expectations. However, management's outlook for next quarter came up short of expectations, which makes today's rally somewhat peculiar. It appears that investors are willing to give ADBE the benefit of the doubt and seem to like the partnership with Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT).Speaking of MSFT, shares hit yet another new highs on the day, after doing so on Tuesday as well.Jabil Inc (NYSE:JBL) jumped double digits on the day, rising more than 10% after better-than-expected earnings. Non-GAAP earnings of 57 cents per share was in-line with expectations, while revenue of $6.14 billion beat consensus estimates by $130 million and grew 12.9% year-over-year. Now, the stock is flirting with a major multi-year breakout.T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS) tacked on another 2.4% gain on Thursday, as it looks increasingly likely that it will get the green light from the DoJ to acquire Sprint (NYSE:S). The latter rose 3% on the same optimism, as reports peg Dish Network (NASDAQ:DISH) as the likely suitor to buy the duo's asset sales, which are necessary for regulatory approval.Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) jumped 7.5% to new highs following a positive take from its investor meeting. The stock hit another new all-time high on the day as the Shopify train just keeps on rolling. Should shares hit $356, it will be a triple from the December lows. The LosersVideo game stocks struggled on Wednesday, led lower by Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI), which fell about 1%. Take-Two Interactive Software (NASDAQ:TTWO) ended flat after a strong last hour of trading, while Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:EA) ending higher on the day despite a lower open. The group was under pressure Wednesday following video game sales data showing an 11% year-over-year decline for May, while hardware sales slumped 20%.Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) struggled again on Wednesday. The stock opened at its highs on Tuesday, but fell despite announcing its new cryptocurrency. That selling continued today, with the stock down 0.53%. It cast a shadow over social media stocks, with Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) falling 1%, Snap (NYSE:SNAP) dropping 1.3% and Pinterest (NYSE:PINS) sinking 2.5%. The Bottom Line on the Nasdaq TodayThe Fed was the most polarizing event of the day and its aftermath will show itself in the days and weeks to come. Will the event act as a catalyst to propel stocks to new highs? After all, the Nasdaq is less than 200 points or about 2.1% away from those highs now. Or will investors sell the market lower despite the Fed's accommodative stance?Let price be the guide. If Wednesday's closing action is any indication, buyers want in on the market heading into the early part of summer.What I really want to see how is how the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones trade through the rest of the week. While they rose 0.42%, 0.33% and 0.15% on Wednesday, respectively, I want to see if the move has staying power. A strong finish to the week very well could bring new highs, but we need to see that continuation to confirm it. * Dow Jones Today: Stocks Almost Had Some Fed Fun Let's see if chip stocks can continue to push higher and if Adobe can climb up toward $300. And for Pete's sake, can we get some participation from the FANG stocks?Bret Kenwell is the manager and author of Future Blue Chips and is on Twitter @BretKenwell. As of this writing, Bret Kenwell was long AMD, AVGO, NVDA and PINS. More From InvestorPlace * 4 Top American Penny Pot Stocks (Buy Before June 21) * 7 Value Stocks to Buy for the Second Half * 7 Hot Stocks to Buy for a Seemingly Sleepy Summer * 6 Chip Stocks Staring At Big Headwinds in 2019 Compare Brokers The post Nasdaq Today: All Eyes on the Fed appeared first on InvestorPlace.
The CME Group launched micro e-mini contracts for the S&P 500, Russell 2000, Dow Jones 30 and Nasdaq100 indices at a much lower cost than the existing e-mini futures.
If the Fed doesn't signal significant easing ahead, the markets could nosedive. Many analysts agree that the markets might be overpricing the Fed's rate cuts this year.
Today at 2 PM ET, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, which will be followed by its press conference at 2:30 PM ET. Investors are hoping for a rate cut and a dovish statement from the Fed. On June 4, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s statement that “we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion” drove a stock market rally.
This afternoon, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to give public remarks on the state of the U.S. economy, even though expectations are low he will be announcing a 25 basis-point interest rate cut.
US markets rose sharply yesterday, and the NASDAQ Composite (QQQ) rose 1.4%. Semiconductor stocks were among the biggest gainers. NVIDIA (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Broadcom (AVGO), and Intel (INTC) rose 5.4%, 4.3%, 4.5%, and 2.7%, respectively.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi turned ultra-dovish in a speech in Portugal on Tuesday. Is this a motivation for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his cohorts to cut interest rates as they meet this week? President Trump on Tuesday blasted Draghi because stimulus in Europe means a lower euro versus the dollar, giving an edge to European companies in their exports to the U.S. On the other hand, the U.S. stock market is encouraged by Trump’s tweet of a “very good” phone call with President Xi of China and the news of an extended meeting with him at the G20.
Could there soon be a recession? "Bond king" Jeffrey Gundlach thinks so. He shared his views regarding the Fed, markets, recession, and strategies to hedge against the slowdown during a DoubleLine investor webcast on June 13.
Micron's (NASDAQ:MU) situation continues to deteriorate. With its margins waning and its revenue and profitability falling, MU stock price has fallen meaningfully from its highs. Just two months ago in April, Micron stock was trying to break out and exceed $45. What happened?Source: Shutterstock While the trade war was seemingly heading towards a friendly resolution a few months ago, a tweet from President Trump sent those assumptions down the drain. The tweet sank the stock market, as the PowerShares QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) calmly shed 11.5% in the month of May.However, it's had a much more devastating impact on semiconductors, chip makers and memory producers. For instance, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) tumbled more than 23% in May, MU stock dropped almost 26% from peak to trough and Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) dropped roughly 18%.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips * 5 Stocks to Buy for $20 or Less Comments that Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) made in conjunction with its second-quarter results didn't help. On Thursday evening, the chip maker said it expects first-half headwinds to persist in the second half of the year, after previously expecting them to lift. That caused Broadcom to issue full-year revenue guidance that was well below analysts' average estimate ($22.5 billion vs. $24.31 billion), inflicting even more pain on the group. What About the Valuation of Micron Stock?Too many people look at MU stock and assume it's a buy because of its low valuation. Many understand how price-earnings (P/E) ratios work, but some don't. They see Micron stock trading at four or five times its earnings and say, "That's a buy to me!"What they don't consider is the very basic equation of the P/E ratio. Quite simply, the ratio is price divided by earnings. When a company's stock falls and its earnings stay flat, its valuation or P/E ratio falls, making it more attractive. However, when companies' earnings fall, their stocks become more expensive.When both price and earnings fall -- which is what's been happening to Micron -- the company's P/E can remain almost constant. Last July, MU stock was trading at almost $60. Analysts' average estimate called for earnings of almost $12 per share during the fiscal year, giving MU stock a forward P/E ratio of about five. Fast forward to June 2019 and the forward consensus earnings estimate has cratered almost 50%, down to $6.35 per share. So, too, has the stock price, which is also down almost 50%.That's not surprising. The decline in estimates, in conjunction with the decline of MU stock, has kept the P/E ratio relatively constant. Thus, MU stock isn't that much cheaper now than it was in the past. Micron's Underlying BusinessNAND memory is a component of Micron's business, making up roughly 30% of its total revenue last quarter. However, another form of memory, DRAM, is the largest piece of MU's pie, making up 64% of its total revenue.Micron's President and CEO, Sanjay Mehrotra, said this about NAND and DRAM:"NAND markets remain oversupplied from the acceleration in bit growth driven by the industry transition to 64-layer 3D NAND. Although fiscal Q2 pricing came in below our expectations, we are optimistic that demand elasticity and seasonal trends will support improving demand growth in the second half of the calendar year.Since our last earnings call, DRAM pricing weakened more than expected. Our demand outlook for calendar 2019 has moderated, led by somewhat greater levels of customer inventory, weakening server demand at several enterprise OEM customers and worse-than-expected CPU shortages."Other executives have made unfavorable observations about memory:Anthony Neri, president and CEO of Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NASDAQ:HPE): "So the overall commodity environment continue to be favorable and there is an oversupply now compared to last year's as you recall there was shortages and costs going up. The DRAM prices are down."Dion Weisler, CEO of HP Inc (NASDAQ:HPQ): "I think broadly speaking, we have seen some easing around the overall supply chain costs in the basket of commodities and logistics."Kelly Kramer, CFO of Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO), also said the company was benefiting from reduced DRAM prices. Trading MU Stock Click to EnlargeMicron's price action was very discouraging last week , with MU stock topping out near $36. It's now down about 8% from those levels.If MU stock falls below Friday's lows, it could be in some trouble. Those lows buoyed Micron stock in late May and early June. If they can't do so now, then MU stock could tumble to $30. If the selling pressure doesn't relent, it could continue even lower.Now that semis and tech have caught a bid, see if Micron can hurdle $34 and its 20-day moving average. Otherwise, Micron stock looks risky on the long side in the short-term, particularly with a percolating trade war.With all that said, Micron is a boom-bust company. When its business is tough -- like now -- the ride is rough for investors. When its business is good -- and it eventually will be -- MU stock will be a huge winner. Even if MU slides further from here, it will likely be a good hold over the long term. DRAM and NAND aren't going anywhere, and neither is MU stock.Bret Kenwell is the manager and author of Future Blue Chips and is on Twitter @BretKenwell. As of this writing, Bret Kenwell is long NVDA. More From InvestorPlace * 4 Top American Penny Pot Stocks (Buy Before June 21) * 5 Red-Hot IPO Stocks to Buy for the Long Run * 5 Stocks to Buy for $20 or Less * 4 Dow Jones Stocks Ready to Rise Compare Brokers The post Should Micron Stock Be Bought or Sold? appeared first on InvestorPlace.
Fresh stimulus proposals for the ECB, which may begin as soon as next month, when the body reconvenes, are sending U.S. market futures up.
U.S. markets and stock exchange traded funds inched higher Monday as traders on a highly anticipated Federal Reserve meeting that is expected to outline the potential path to interest rate cuts this year. On Monday, the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was up 0.7%, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) gained 0.2% and SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) rose 0.2%. Investors will be closely monitoring the Fed's meeting concluding Wednesday for direction on the central bank's monetary policy for the year after rising expectations for an interest rate cut in recent weeks.
Consumer spending has taken a backseat in the first quarter. The US economy is facing headwinds like slower tax refunds, declining job numbers, and escalating trade tensions. The trade war is a major headwind for apparel retailers.
U.S. markets and stock exchange traded funds stumbled Friday as weak economic data, growing tensions over trade and the uncertain global outlook weighed on sentiment. On Friday, the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was down 0.4%, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) was flat and SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) fell 0.2%. “People are struggling to figure out where to put their money in the midst of so many unknowns,” Justin Wiggs, managing director in equity trading at Stifel Nicolaus, told the Wall Street Journal, highlighting the ongoing trade tensions and doubts about the direction of interest rates as some of these unknowns.
Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization all put up numbers strong enough to keep interest rate cut narratives at bay.
The sudden rally in the market was driven by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's dovish comments last week that “the Fed will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.” A CNBC article stated that market traders think there's a 70% chance of an interest rate cut in July and a ~60% chance of three rate cuts in 2019.
On June 13, the US Department of Labor reported its jobless claims report for last week. Initial jobless claims rose 3,000 to 222,000 for the week that ended on June 8—below analysts' expectation of 215,000. What does this say about the prospect of a rate cut?
U.S. markets and stock exchange traded funds bounced higher Thursday after a back-to-back decline as the energy sector helped lift the broader market higher in response to a sharp rise in oil prices, following suspected attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman. On Thursday, the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was up 0.4%, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) was 0.3% higher and SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) rose 0.3%. Crude oil prices surged a day after touching five-month lows after an series of attacks near Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, which sees a fifth of global oil trafficked through, Reuters reports.
Paul Tudor Jones has told Bloomberg that he expects an aggressive but short period of rate cuts by the Fed, which is set to meet on June 18 and 19.
Paul Tudor Jones’s Strategy for Fed Rate CutsTrade war expedites the need for rate cutsBillionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones spoke to Bloomberg today ahead of JUST Capital’s event in New York. He thinks the US-China tariff war has expedited
A Perfect Storm for Gold: All Macro Drivers AlignGold price movementIt has been difficult to predict gold movement this year—economic reports have been more or less mixed and US-China trade deal optimism has curbed gold prices. However, as trade