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Royal Dutch Shell plc (RDS-B)

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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25.64-0.69 (-2.62%)
At close: 4:00PM EDT
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  • B
    Boris
    Saudi energy minister warns oil market gamblers will be hurt "like hell".
    The best case scenario is a deep cut in oil supply after one more dip. One more dip would bankrupt the small players and if they cut supply severyly after, the oil price could increase to above 80 USD in a short time. That would be a big disruption.
  • M
    Midweekhandelaar
    One day Shell will moon again. Maybe not today, or not monday, but one day it will. And then the shorters will lose money. They will lose a lot of money. I will hold till that day.
    Bullish
  • b
    ben
    Been watching RDS for a while now. Gonna buy in Monday green or red. Don’t think it’ll go down much from current level. Check out other oil stocks (MRO, CPE, OAS, XOM, etc.). All got beat down to within ~ 10% of March low, then rebounded. I think RDS is close to that rebound. I’m heavily invested in oil because I like making $ and everyone must realize that just because all hype is currently on EV and renewable energy that doesn’t take away from the fact that oil drives , and will Continue to drive the world economy for a couple more decades. Last time RDS saw $26 was in 1994! I’m buying in, and if I’m wrong, and it keeps plummeting, I’ll keep buying. This is NOT a company on fringe of bankruptcy.
    Bullish
  • B
    Boris
    The charts are saying this:
    Every now and then the price action can go just above so called ''normal'' levels of the bands, and are sold off there. The MACD is in negative terretory and even slightly sloping down. The RSI is 34 (oversold) and sloping down too. There is hardly any new money flowing in. Volumes are slowly increasing as it looks like a game of: passing the hot potato. If the RSI goes any weaker we will at least see another 10% drop, meaning a retest of the March 2020 lows.
    I think a retest of the March 2020 lows is a likely scenario prior to the earnings, since there is no direct catalyst to pull the price higher. Unless oil rises above 50 USD; that is likely going to pull in more money.
  • N
    Neil
    Shell is profitable at 31.00/Barrel. The shareholders can catastrophize all they want in the short term, but the fundamentals, especially with a vaccine are compelling. Remember that the price movement of a stock in the short term is dictated by the emotions of temperamental people. The business however, is not affected by those same emotions and a disconnect between the two presents an opportunity.
  • T
    Tom
    futures up a little but not as much as oil. If oil rises a bit higher you will see some investors close out their short position..that and more interested buyers. I expect a $2 pop in this stock by end of week. Don't sell...this stock will trend higher from there.
    Bullish
  • B
    Boris
    (!) repeat: big option expiration is today, expect more volatility

    my contraindicator says ''it's time to say goodbye to big oil, things will never be the same again''
    https://www.iexprofs.nl/Must-read/506833/Must-Read/Must-read-Dag-big-oil.aspx

    Though I do think there will be a big transition, I think things will normalise next year on a vaccin. Almost everyone I know (including me) will go on a travel once there is a vaccin, I know some people still take the plane regularly now. But a vaccin will bring back confidence and oil consumption especially by airlines.
    After a proven vaccin maybe a nice play to look at an airlines with a good balance sheet?

    Keep playing diversified, oil is my biggest position, followed by Chinese tech.
  • B
    Beep
    To those who are burning this management on the dividend cut:
    1) What would you do if you saw prices decline under 30 USD? Under 30 USD RDS does not generate enough cash flow.
    2) Cutting the dividend allows them to make good investments now when cash is king.
    3) They stated these were unprecedented difficult times, and on the demand side worse than any point in history. Should Royal Dutch Shell have prepared for a pandemic where no planes were flying and the goverments shut down the economy for an extended period? They could, but that would lower margins.

    I invested after the crash, because of the good decisions of the management. They also invested in a petrochemical joint venture in China where the economy is running hot again. And they had a project in The Netherlands to provide for around 40% of the required electricity in a windmill project in the sea.

    Royal Dutch Shell is not standing still, but your thoughts on Royal Dutch Shell might be affected by the price action of the stock. I see those 2 things as 2 seperate things. Personally, I do hope to see more action in the form of take overs in the energy market when it comes to delivering electricity directly to the consumer.
    And if they really want to make my wet dream come true: a Royal Dutch Shell nucleair plant.

    I'm on average in Royal Dutch Shell with a price of 13.00 euro excluding dividends. So, I am down 8,5% currently. 2022 is the time I'll enjoy watching the price action, I consciously choose to enter now, even though the technicals still give a sell signal.
  • b
    brd2dth
    Pain, pain and more pain. Seems market wants ~ > 6 % divy and will wait to drive this down to low $20s/share to get it. Got to ask CEO was the divy cut really worth it? Guess the management has no personal stake in the shares - otherwise they would think twice
  • N
    Neil
    I would also keep an eye on the price of Natural Gas and the ongoing recovery in China, where RDS has exposure in oil and gas.

    If WTI oil prices trend lower, LNG prices might go up, with tight oil underwater and unable to produce gas, this can benefit Shell immensely. TBH, they might already be benefitting from it. It is just not reflected in the price action. Which to me is an awesome gift.

    Good Luck.
  • B
    Beep
    ''Shale oil costs more than conventional oil to extract, ranging from a cost-per-barrel of production from as low as $40 to over $90 a barrel'' Probably those smaller players who have a costprice of 50 and over are all gone, bankrupt. Then some more will follow. I think the production cost of Shell is average 30+ USD. There will be more bankrupcies, and that will be good for the market.
  • G
    Gary
    If renewable energy is the future and RDS (as well as BP) are transitioning to focus on more renewable energy then, why are these companies consistently going down?

    Perhaps renewable energy is not the correct future.
  • D
    Dmitry
    My avg position is at usd 54, (2270 shares). I can’t be considered a happy investor at this point of time. I am DRIPing and know it will be around 2 years before I am in green. I am comfortable with company’s management and agreed with cutting dividends. Shell is well prepared to face the future. The company is in circular commodity business. We bottomed, the clime back will happen and Shell is well positioned.
  • G
    Greg
    Picking a stock with a good chance of a 40% gain in the next year or two is easy. Just purchase a highly regarded oil company that is selling at a 25 year low shortly before a vaccine will be announced. The hard part is holding onto said stock during volatile losses. Use logic, not emotions. If you need the money in the next 2-3 months sell the stock, otherwise have faith in the system. If every stock went up 40% in a straight line with no volatility, it would take all the meaning out of your earnings when they arrive.
  • D
    Dash
    This has always been cyclic stock the pandemic has cause it to break further. But I don't think oil is going anywhere unless poor countries like India and China find some magical alternative. This should come back up in couple of years so its more of how safe is the dividend from here on
  • B
    Boris
    The gap has been closed. Volumes are not really there at this moment. We could see an acceleration of the drop, and then you'll see up day with high volumes after, that's the moment of recovery.
  • B
    Beep
    https://shortsell.nl/universes/Nederland
    Short positioning in Dutch stocks (no noteworthy short in Shell currently)
    Fugro -> is dependant on extra expenditure from other oil companies, high chance to go bankrupt with oil companies cutting on spending
    Wereldhave -> reits, a reits company that kept paying high dividends, without having the income stream, kept increasing debt, now at a dangerous level
    URW -> reits, similarly like Wereldhave, but with a slightly stronger balance sheet
    Arcadis -> never looked at this one..
    Air France KLM -> airline, can't pay their expenses without goverment support
    SMB Offshore -> similar like Fugro, but with a bit stronger balance sheet
    shortsell.nl
    shortsell.nl
  • B
    Boris
    Oil is trading sideways today, but bigger is the move in Natural Gas 2.576 +0.086 (+3,45%).
    For Shell who is investing more in gas than oil recently, this will eventually be more important.
  • B
    Boris
    Key notes IEA (published 15 sept):
    - Oil supply rose, due to easing OPEC cuts
    - Resurge in Covid caused new local lock downs
    - Hurricane increased margins briefly
    - In august stock of oil dropped, might rise again in September
    - China is a major factor in the recovery
  • K
    King
    They never cared about shareholders but it is reasonable price at $25 unless they have financial solvency issues. I bought at $55 and rode into $70 and got out at $50 in 2020 feb and now wondering if I should join this house of pain.