U.S. Markets close in 2 hrs 22 mins

REX American Resources Corporation (REX)

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
Add to watchlist
97.25-0.87 (-0.89%)
As of 1:23PM EDT. Market open.
Sign in to post a message.
  • E
    Eddy D
    $ALTO conversation
    NEWS
    "Among the major funding details released Tuesday, $700 million will go to biofuel producers. The ethanol industry clamored for aid last year as demand for liquid fuel crashed during government shutdowns. Geoff Cooper, president and CEO of the Renewable Fuels Association, said the group is pleased with Tuesday's announcement and that the relief will come over the next two months."

    reported in Farmers DTN news feed

    MY GUESS... Industry ran at 50% capacity ie 7B in a 14B gallon market.
    Fair distribution is 10c per gallon not produced.
    If so Alto had a capacity of 600M gallons...( so half would yield $30M seems a fair share... my guess)
    Alto ended Idling 180mil gallons in 2021.

    GPRE was at 1.2B gallons capacity( I think). So $60M GUESS!

    VLO had 2.7-2.8Bil capacity. So $135M GUESS.

    ADM. REX, AMTX...

    2020 was a hard year... BUT this will repair a bit the balance sheet and fill up the kitty for some Carbon Capture Investment or Protein production,

    $GPRE
    $REX
    $AMTX
    $ADM
    $REX
    $ANDE
    VLO is also big producer. 2.7Billion (I think last year). So ps
    Bullish
  • E
    Eddy D
    $ALTO conversation
    EIA report volume for the week is right on track
    1. Higher volume out of the plants - get ready for Labor day surge
    2. Refinig running higher and higher ( 91+ %)
    3. Byproducts of corn ( biodiesel) is Up ... and Prices are UP

    By the way corn futures moderated !

    Margin widen, volume is up.
    Watch for another bump in earnings estimates.

    $GPRE
    $GPP
    $ADM
    $VLO
    $REX
    Bullish
  • E
    Eddy D
    $GPP conversation
    1Q2021 Ethanol consumption was from Production and Inventory Depletion.
    Inventory went down from 24mil barrels to 19mil in 20 weeks or 200K per week.

    Now that Demand and inventory are on target, all new demand will be from production.

    GPRE has 290mil capacity per quarter, Produced 168mil in 1Q,

    At 80% of capacity, production might reach 240mil.

    For GPP, this is a delta 72Mil gallons or 3.5Mil ADDITIONAL REVENUE!

    Spread that over 20mil shares DELTA +17C above 1Q!!!!
    ====================

    Step it down to 220Mil shipped it is still $2.5M extra or $.12/share!!!

    arnings estimates are just +1C QtQ

    Load up on $GPP!

    $gpre
    $alto
    $rex
    $ande
    Bullish
  • E
    Eddy D
    $ALTO conversation
    EIA dat came out today. Ethanol inventory FLAT, Demand UP at Refinery level.
    Cash Price average $2.54 per gallon, driven by Opening / and probably some fulling up the tank for Memorial day.

    Meanwhile Corn adjusting down.

    Margin widening, profit double at plant level.

    Industry is on strong footing:,
    lower corn,
    good inventory, good demand, pace production ,
    good export(China), good price.

    Watch for P/E expansion from LOW LEVEL.

    $VLO
    $GPRE
    $ALTO
    $REX
    Bullish
  • E
    Eddy D
    Watch for Industry update news at REX earnings results. Always good to keep abreast of fundamentals, look ahead.
    o Carbon Capture thoughts here are very mature
    o cost control good
    o Volume and Inventory status
    o excellent blance sheet

    Tempered knowledge of policies, rins, prices

    $GPRE
    $ADM
    $Alto,
    $ANDE
  • E
    Eddy D
    $ALTO conversation
    What is shaking the Ethanol world , under under ?
    1. Driving rate is picking up.... but up to now nothing excessive not to keep up with.
    2. Based on corn and cane ... corn in high Demand due to China needs
    3. Invenotry is low ... industry is switching to alchohol, cut down run rate
    4. New Consciousness about CLIMATE! https://www.farmprogress.com/carbon/researchers-add-evidence-ethanols-low-carbon-benefits

    Worldwide? Yes

    1. US Corn Dec $6$+ Ethanol $2.34

    2. Braxil https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/050521-feature-brazil-center-south-hydrous-ethanol-enters-new-parabolic-price-phase

    3. Europe https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/agriculture/050521-eu-ethanol-corn-crush-margins-turn-negative-on-global-corn-rally

    CONCLUSION : Hold on to your producers!!! Ethaol might be better than STEEL... Luquid Steel !

    $ALTO,
    $ANDE
    $GPRE
    $REX
    $ADM
    Bullish
  • E
    Eddy D
    $GPRE conversation
    Industry running at 1.032Mil Barrels per day last week. Suspect that rate is higher this endiing week og 05 21 getting ready for Memorial day. Net Plants running at full capacity...
    92 % plus? Would be NICE

    $ GPP VOLUME 100%???

    More Oil derivatives for Diesel!!

    More DDG Meal (High price)

    Listen to Industry News next week

    $ALTO
    $REX
  • E
    Eddy D
    Load Up! Your were told yesterday!!
    $1.30 vs .01 in the table !
    $30M above target revenue.

    $REX

    Same factors of margin and cost for
    $GPRE
    $ALTO
    $ANDE
    $VOL
    $ADM
    Bullish
  • m
    magnet
    The 2020 EPS for REX American Resources Corporation is 1.18.
    By the Analysis page, the 2021 EPS estimate is 5.48 and the current year's Growth Estimates are 1018.40%.
    How does this growth rate come from?
    In my common sense, the growth rate is (5.48-1.18)/1.18 = 364.4%.
    Bullish
  • E
    Eddy D
    $ALTO conversation
    Back a few years on $CNBC, I remember the Chicogo guy loving the idea of Alcohol/NatGas truck engine.

    May be Alto should annonce a SPAC dealClearFlame.

    $GPRE could also get in that game or $REX
    They both have the CASH too.
    Bullish
  • E
    Eddy D
    $GPRE conversation
    Analysts missed 1Q earnings estimates by 71%.

    Since then margins have increased!
    $REX has announced, confirming the industry trends
    And is a Blow out!

    $Altoearnings have been upgraded twice for 2Q, 3Q and FY
    Yet has more to go

    Do you think that GPRE numbers would have been upgraded by now?
    NO... Analysts are sleeping!

    Load-up Now for at least a 25% increase like $REX.
    GPRE delta from forecast numbers loaded in the table will be much better.
    - IN 2Q, they sold a plant, and some tank+rails for GPP
    - IN 2Q, converted some preferred into common ( smart moves by these 'preferred folks'. I always check to see why they are smarter these preferred folks.

    Inventory is down, driving is UP, FEED is up for the cows...,
    price level is goood, volume ship is goood and so is export.
    Bullish
  • E
    Eddy D
    $ALTO conversation
    Bullish call : $TESLA Elon Musk looking to get some #RINs for saving carbon.
    o Battle ahead with Refineries paying up will cause a change in RINs flow
    o RINs bank get used up, but refimers have to add to the bank of RINs, not buy the RINs as substitute to mix.
    o Producers ( ethanol and EV cars) get paid $$ directly by Mileage Tax, And Electric Rate at Home

    Ethanol Producers get RINs $ directly as a CARBON CREDIT for Savings polluting and then for Capturing!
    #Tesla gets credit for EV and customers pay 'gas-CC fee'

    $ALTO
    $GPRE
    $REX
    $ADM
    Bullish
  • E
    Eddy D
    Congrats to $REX! and bright industry news.... Stock response just started.
    CONGRATS !

    Wanted to also poin to their 'nice' view on CC.
    But folks this is a long term -

    But they seem to be AHEAD of the GAME
  • m
    massimo
    $PEIX conversation
    Bull news for ethanol sector: Brazil extends tarif-free ethanol imports (around 200 Mln gallons)

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idAFL1N2G9004

    $gpre $rex $amtx $vlo $adm
    Brazil's government will extend a tariff-free ethanol import program with the United States for 90 days starting Sept. 14, the foreign ministry said in a statement on Friday.
    Brazil's government will extend a tariff-free ethanol import program with the United States for 90 days starting Sept. 14, the foreign ministry said in a statement on Friday.
    www.google.com
    Bullish
  • m
    massimo
    $AMTX conversation
    DRY-ICE will be essential for COVID vaccine.

    Dry ice comes from Carbon Dioxide that is typical from ethanol producers!

    Strong Buy

    $peix $gpre $vlo $ande $adm $regi $rex
    Bullish
  • E
    Eddy D
    Good 3Q Earnings report due to COAL credit... But stated Coal TAX benefits going away in 2022!

    LOOKING AHEAD :
    1 It seems that next option will not come online before COAL goes away.

    2 CORN headed higher in 4Q and ethanol did not keep up... so MARGIN went NEGATIVE... So this will take away from coal credits.

    3 Has CASH but LOW interest rate cut earning by 50%( just 500K for $200M on hand!)

    4.Winter Ahead - LOW SEASON for ethanol driving, LOW PRICE, and HIGH CORN due to China back in the picture.

    SO 4Q20 more of a miss on projection, and 1Q21 tougher specially if car traffic slows down YtY due to stay-at-home.

    Window Option to buy cheap ethanol plants CLOSING fast? ADM, PEIX, GPRE?
    Bearish
  • m
    massimo
    $AMTX conversation
    Interesting article that I wrote on SeekingAlpha about Aemetis

    https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/20123751-x10-bagger/5500201-aemetis-nasdaq-amtx-10-stock-trading-3

    $gpre $peix $vlo $ande $rex $adm $gevo $regi $amrs
    AEMETIS (Nasdaq:AMTX) A $10 Stock Trading At $3 - x10 bagger
    seekingalpha.com
    Bullish
  • E
    Eddy D
    Costs of corn UP! January CME $4.49
    Ethanol does not keep up... slight change ...from 1.31 to 1.32

    EIA ethanol stock +8% above LAST YEAR, when auto traffic was higher.
    All PADDs above last year supply

    What does it take for this industry to dial down production?????

    Heading into Winter month when market price slows down.
    Bearish
  • S
    Slashnuts
    GERS Suing REX Plants For Patent Infringement.
    https://www.greenshift.com/content/investorresources/pdf/appeal_2018_08_29_brief.pdf
    REX liability for back royalty's in the $10's of millions.
  • m
    massimo
    $AMTX conversation
    Aemetis and Pacific Ethanol: STRONG BUY

    Today we are down since REX posted a loss for the quarter. But REX is a traditional Fuel Ethanol company (energy sector)

    AMTX e PEIX are now hand sanitizer (more healthcare sector), so from 1 April we have not comparable anymore with REX. Total different business.

    $peix $gpre $rex $vlo $adm $regi $cdxs
    Bullish