|Day's Range||100.76 - 100.76|
Needham Growth Fund Portfolio Manager Chris Retzler joins Canaccord Genuity Senior Managing Director Tony Dwyer and Yahoo Finance’s Adam Shapiro, Julie Hyman, Emily McCormick to discuss the markets on On The Move.
The Dow Jones industrials turned positive midday as Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified and public impeachment hearings for President Trump got underway.
Research Affiliates says inflation-adjusted returns for emerging market stocks will be far better than for U.S. shares over the next decade.
The Russell’s fifty-day moving average has surpassed its 200-day moving average in a taste of what’s to come, analysts say
Things are starting to turn around in a big way for small-capitalization U.S. stocks, as their larger-cap brethren enjoy a string of recent record closes.
U.S. stocks inched up to close at fresh record highs Friday even through President Trump said the administration had yet to agree to roll back import duties on China as part of a “phase-one” trade deal.
Beleaguered shares of small U.S. companies are set for a bump in performance as value stocks have risen, market analysts say, but small caps could quickly fade again with an economic setback. The small-cap Russell 2000 index has lagged the benchmark S&P 500 for much of 2019 and has yet to escape the bear market it confirmed last December. The Russell's outperformance is in tandem with the S&P 500 Value index , whose 5.2% quarter-to-date climb has outpaced the S&P 500 Growth index's 2.3% advance over the same period.
U.S. stocks ended by clinching new records Thursday even after a report of ‘fierce internal’ opposition in Washington has emerged over plans for the U.S. and China to lift each other’s import tariffs in phases
With earnings season slowly fading, tariffs move back to center stage. After the close today, investors hear the latest from The Walt Disney Co (NYSE: DIS). The stock’s performance slightly trails the S&P 500 Index (SPX) so far this year.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average went underwater in the stock market today after a report of a potential delay in a U.S.-China trade deal.
Seventy-five percent of analysts covering the stock have a Buy or equivalent rating, while 25% recommend a Hold. Short interest remains high, at about 90% of its limited IPO float.
The stock market rose for a second session Monday, buoyed by trade optimism following remarks by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross after talks in China.
How do you deliver an encore for a stretch of five days when the Fed lowered rates, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) delivered powerful earnings, and the jobs report showed that consumers continue to be incredibly healthy? All that good news helped send the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and Nasdaq (COMP) to record highs Friday. A possible one emerged early Monday when Bloomberg reported that U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said licenses for U.S. companies to sell components to China’s Huawei will come “very shortly.” Ross also said the U.S. might not have to slap tariffs on European cars, perhaps a sign of a thaw in that trade relationship.
Wall Street stocks have climbed to record highs as worries over U.S.-China trade relations and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have receded, but cautious investors have been sticking with technology shares and some defensive stocks over value stocks and more speculative plays such as IPOs. Technology companies are considered capable of earnings growth even if the economy falls into a recession, while defensive shares offer steady dividends. The S&P 500 has gained 22% this year in large part because of the 36% gain in technology shares , which have an outsized impact on the benchmark index.
Compass is a holding company that operates like a private-equity firm. The stock’s outlook seems attractive, as does its 6.9% dividend yield.
Wall Street's main indexes climbed on Friday, as concerns over global growth were allayed by largely upbeat U.S. jobs report and data out of China that showed factory activity expanded at its fastest pace in more than two years. The tech-heavy Nasdaq hit a record high for the first time since July, while the benchmark S&P 500 notched its fourth record high this week.
Bonk, bonk, bonk … The S&P 500 is now trying for the seventh time to break and stay above its prior all-time high. The purple line in this chart does just that and provides a visual explanation of the S&P 500’s (SPX) failure to break higher. The real question is this: Will the S&P 500 finally break above purple trendline resistance?
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- That was quick. It took less than 24 hours for markets to start second-guessing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who said on Wednesday that monetary policy is in a “good place” to keep the economy growing moderately. And yet, the S&P 500 Index fell on Thursday, dropping the most in three weeks at one point and indicating doubts among traders that the economy is anywhere but a good place. Sure, the S&P 500 set another new all-time high this week, but broader measures of equities are well below their records. The New York Stock Exchange Composite Index is down 3.68% from its high reached in January 2018, while the Russell 2000 Index is 11.3% below its record set in August 2018. The trigger for the declines Thursday was a Bloomberg News report that Chinese officials are casting doubts about reaching a comprehensive long-term trade deal with the U.S. even as the two sides get close to signing a “phase one” agreement. That shouldn’t be a total surprise, though, as many traders have speculated that the impeachment hearings against President Donald Trump provide China with little incentive to a broad agreement. What was surprising was the MNI Chicago Business Barometer index, which fell to 43.2 for October from September’s 47.1 when it was forecast to rise to 48. That’s a big miss. Then, the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell the most in eight years, possibly signaling more moderate household spending approaching the holiday-shopping season. If that wasn’t enough, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s widely-follow GDPNow index that aims to track the economy in real time fell to a paltry 1.46% rate.It’s hard to criticize Powell. All else being equal, it’s better for business, consumer and investor confidence to have an optimistic central banker than one who is pessimistic. That said, it’s also good to have a central banker who doesn’t seem out of touch with reality. We’ll find out soon enough where Powell stands, with a pair of high-level economic data points scheduled to be released Friday in the form of the monthly jobs report and the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index.HOW LONG OF A PAUSE?The bond market sure isn’t acting like the bar to further rate cuts is very high. After falling 4 basis points on Wednesday, yields on benchmark two-year Treasury notes dropped an additional 7 basis points to 1.53% on Thursday. The probability of another rate reduction happening at the central bank’s next policy meeting in December stands at a not-so-insignificant 30%, which is higher than where it was a month ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Plus, at about 16 basis points, the gap between two- and 10-year yields is lower now than where it was before the Fed started cutting rates at the end of July. If the so-called yield curve really is a reflection of where the economy is headed, then the flattening is a sign that the bond market believes that the Fed’s three rate cuts have done nothing to spark growth. “We do not think the worst of the downside risks for the Fed have passed yet,” said Wells Fargo Securities strategist Erik Nelson.STOCKS HAVE A NEW LEADERThe U.S. economy has been described as the cleanest of the dirty shirts. In other words, while growth has slowed rapidly in the U.S., it’s still a lot better than most anywhere else in the developed world. If the recent performance of the global stock market is any indication, that narrative may be about to change. In late trading Thursday, the MSCI All-Country World Index excluding the U.S. was up 3.35% for the month of October, while the MSCI USA Index was up just 2.06%. It’s the greatest outperformance by the non-U.S. gauge since December. And while the latest monthly sentiment indexes from State Street Global Markets released Wednesday showed investors’ attitudes toward U.S. equities are languishing near all-time lows, those toward European stocks have rebounded and are approaching record highs. In that sense, the global stock market may be signaling that it doesn’t expect U.S. economic growth to get much worse, but rather growth in the rest of the world may have stopped slowing and will catch up with the U.S.RAW MATERIALS ARE HOPPINGCommodities are another market that may be signaling that the outlook for the global economy isn’t all that bad. The Bloomberg Commodity Index posted its first back-to-back monthly increase in September and October since January and February. The gains have been broad-based, with the energy, agriculture and industrial metals sectors all rising for the month. The World Bank isn’t too optimistic the gains will continue. The organization on Tuesday cut its price forecast for commodities, saying slower global growth will sap demand for energy, metals and crops. “Expectations for global growth both for 2019 and 2020 have been revised down substantially, including in emerging market and developing economies,” the World Bank said in the report. To be sure, such organizations don’t have the greatest track records in making forecasts, often reacting to the data instead of anticipating trends the way markets do.SHADOW ECONOMY SHRINKSIt didn’t get much attention, but the International Monetary Fund came out with a blog post this week looking at the “global informal” or “shadow” economy. This is activity that falls outside the regulated economy and tax system, such as street vending or unregistered taxi drivers. The author, IMF senior economist Thomas Alexander, points out that this part of the economy is hard to measure since participants usually operate on a small scale. Nevertheless, Alexander concludes that the informal economy has steadily shrunk as a percentage of gross domestic product in every part of the world since the early 1990s. In the OECD countries, it’s down to about 15% from 20% almost 30 years ago. The glass-half-full take is that this means the global economy is structurally better, given that the informal economy is generally associated with low productivity, poverty, high unemployment and slower growth. The downside is that it provides opportunities to those who might not otherwise find employment. So, fewer opportunities in this part of the economy may make it harder for many to escape poverty.TEA LEAVESThe Labor Department is expected Friday to say the U.S. economy added 85,000 jobs in October, down from 136,000 in September, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The reality, though, is that the actual results have just as much chance as exceeding the median estimate as falling below. The top-ranked interest-rate strategists at BMO Capital Markets pointed out in a research note Thursday that five proxies they use to track the health of the labor market are positive, while five are negative. As they explain, the Fed’s third rate cut since July on Wednesday wasn’t meant “to offset weakness in the labor market but rather to get ahead of any cracks that may appear in coming months. As such, we expect Friday’s payrolls report to confirm that a stable job market continued through October, even if the trade war is beginning to impede hiring across sectors.” But if the labor market continues to slow, it would put pressure on the Fed to cut rates again in December, despite Powell signaling that policy makers are unlikely to do so.DON’T MISS A Bright Spot for the U.S. Economy? This Is It: Robert Burgess Futures Are Pulling Cryptos Out of the Dark: Aaron Brown Powell Will Need a Horror Show to Cut Again: Authers' Newsletter The Federal Reserve Puts Monetary Policy on Pause: Editorial Lagarde’s Task Is to Lead a Cultural Revolution: EditorialTo contact the author of this story: Robert Burgess at email@example.comTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Beth Williams at firstname.lastname@example.orgThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Robert Burgess is an editor for Bloomberg Opinion. He is the former global executive editor in charge of financial markets for Bloomberg News. As managing editor, he led the company’s news coverage of credit markets during the global financial crisis.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.