RY - Royal Bank of Canada

NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price. Currency in USD
-0.31 (-0.39%)
As of 1:38PM EST. Market open.
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Previous Close78.95
Bid78.57 x 800
Ask78.58 x 800
Day's Range78.30 - 78.81
52 Week Range65.76 - 82.58
Avg. Volume1,001,004
Market Cap112B
Beta (3Y Monthly)1.03
PE Ratio (TTM)12.51
EPS (TTM)6.29
Earnings DateNov 30, 2016 - Dec 5, 2016
Forward Dividend & Yield3.16 (4.00%)
Ex-Dividend Date2020-01-24
1y Target Est88.84
  • Branches Still Pay Off for Canada’s Banks Even in the App Era

    Branches Still Pay Off for Canada’s Banks Even in the App Era

    (Bloomberg) -- In a world reliant on smartphone apps, bank branches may no longer be Main Street mainstays, with red velvet ropes between brass stanchions herding customers to tellers behind wickets.But they’re still an important part of banking and, in Canada, the two largest lenders are beating their smaller rivals at drawing more and more revenue from physical locations. Royal Bank of Canada and Toronto-Dominion Bank earn C$14 million ($10.6 million) a year from each of their domestic branches, distancing themselves from smaller competitors in the process.Bank branches are evolving as customers increasingly rely on mobile phones, websites and automated teller machines for routine transactions, with the drudgery of standing in line to cash a paycheck or shift money between accounts largely left to a bygone era.Canada’s banks have reacted accordingly, shrinking branch sizes, adopting the newest technology and turning once counter-bound tellers into roaming advisers armed with tablets to sell high-margin products and mortgages. That’s paying off: All of the big Canadian banks have posted increases in annual revenue per branch in each of the past three years, and sales have soared substantially from a decade ago.“We’re growing our investment in innovative formats: university campuses, hospitals, newcomer centers, which is helping us grow our client base,” Royal Bank Chief Financial Officer Rod Bolger said in a phone interview. “As we have ramped up our leading digital and mobile applications, customers and clients still like to come to branches for advice.”Royal Bank is Canada’s leader, with 1,201 branches across the country -- four more than a decade ago, even with the addition of digital-banking options during that period. Annual revenue per branch has soared 70% since 2009. Technology has allowed branch employees to focus on dispensing advice to customers rather than merely handling routine transactions, according to Bolger.“We continue to free up time for our banking advisers,” he said. “That is helping us to continue to expand our market share, which will then in turn result in higher productivity per branch.”Rival Toronto-Dominion, meanwhile, has 1,091 branches nationwide, slightly fewer than a decade ago. Like Royal Bank, it has seen a surge in per-branch revenue, with a 66% increase since 2009. The ratio for each of bank was calculated by dividing annual revenue from Canadian personal-and-commercial banking by the number of domestic branches at the end of each fiscal year.“People have been speculating about the future of branches, but we’ve been very clear in our strategy that branches are important to us -- they’re an important contact point for customers who need human advice and human touch,” Toronto-Dominion CFO Riaz Ahmed said. “We continue to see them as a very important part of our strategy.”Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce brings in an average of C$10 million in yearly sales, up about 53% from a decade ago, for each of its 1,024 branches.Customer Conversations“We continue to improve our advisory capabilities and focus on having conversations with clients to understand their needs and to provide them with products and services that they need,” said CIBC CFO Hratch Panossian. “That has had some positive momentum.”Canada’s six largest banks operate 5,578 branches domestically, 2.9% fewer than a decade ago. While the decline isn’t as dramatic as was once predicted by those who thought ATMs and mobile banking would spell an end to bricks-and-mortar locations, branches also aren’t keeping pace with population growth.Canada had 20 branches for every 100,000 adults as of 2018, down from about 25 before the 2008 financial crisis, according to the World Bank. The U.S., in comparison, had about 31 branches per 100,000 adults, down from 35.Bank of Nova Scotia reduced its domestic network the most, trimming 6.9% of its branches from a decade ago, to 949 today. Those branches generate an average of C$11 million in annual revenue, an amount that has climbed steadily in the past six years.“Scotiabank has been adding adviser roles to branches,” spokesman Clancy Zeifman said in an email. “We have also been investing in technologies and tools to help our employees be more productive, including removing manual processes so they can spend more time focusing on our customers.”While branches remain important for Bank of Montreal, CFO Tom Flynn said he expects a gradual decline in both the number of branches and average size amid a push toward digital banking. Canada’s fourth-largest lender has 891 domestic locations, which generate about C$9 million in annual sales on average, a 55% jump from 2009.Smaller Branches“We want to be close to people when they’re doing transactions that are bigger and really important to them,” Flynn said. “At the same time, total branch traffic is down, given the digital migration, and in response to that we have been and will continue to take the average square footage of our branch network down.”National Bank of Canada has the lowest annual revenue per branch, at C$8.2 million for each of its 422 locations, though that’s still 60% higher than a decade ago. The Montreal-based lender, the smallest among Canada’s Big Six banks, may lag behind its larger rivals partly because of its regional focus.“We are located in the province of Quebec, where people are less in debt -- they borrow less,” Jean Dagenais, senior vice president of finance, said in an interview. With property values lower than in other parts of Canada and mortgages smaller as a result, “the volume of loans per branch is lower than a big bank in the Toronto area.”To contact the reporter on this story: Doug Alexander in Toronto at dalexander3@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: David Scanlan at dscanlan@bloomberg.net, ;Michael J. Moore at mmoore55@bloomberg.net, Daniel Taub, Steve DicksonFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Toronto-Dominion (TD) Q4 Earnings Fall on Higher Expenses

    Toronto-Dominion (TD) Q4 Earnings Fall on Higher Expenses

    Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) fourth-quarter fiscal 2019 results reflect higher revenues, partly offset by rising expenses and higher provisions.

  • Blame the Financial Crisis for More Expensive Christmas Trees

    Blame the Financial Crisis for More Expensive Christmas Trees

    (Bloomberg) -- Consumers in the market for a Christmas tree can expect to pay more this year, as a shortage of Christmas trees has led to higher prices, thanks in part to the lingering effects of the 2008 financial crisis.The average price per tree reached $78 last year, compared to $37 in 2008, RBC analyst Paul Quinn wrote in a note. The crisis was responsible for the closure of many farms and the under-planting of seedlings, Quinn said. “Most market participants expect the shortage, which began around 2016, to last for several years,” he said.This shortage, along with low labor, has pushed prices higher over the past few years, Quinn wrote. Demand has been also rising, and to keep up with it, artificial trees have been gaining market share, albeit for higher prices.Quinn notes, however, that artificial plants are “less green” as they are not generally recyclable, while real trees are. His top pick for tree is Fraser Fir, which is sometimes called the “Cadillac” of Christmas Trees.To contact the reporter on this story: Aoyon Ashraf in Toronto at aashraf7@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Brad Olesen at bolesen3@bloomberg.net, Jennifer Bissell-Linsk, Steven FrommFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Canadian Imperial (CM) Down on Lower Q4 Earnings, Costs Rise

    Canadian Imperial (CM) Down on Lower Q4 Earnings, Costs Rise

    Substantial increase in credit costs hurts Canadian Imperial's (CM) fiscal Q4 earnings.

  • ECB Rate Cuts Seen as Done With Lagarde’s Review in Spotlight

    ECB Rate Cuts Seen as Done With Lagarde’s Review in Spotlight

    (Bloomberg) -- Explore what’s moving the global economy in the new season of the Stephanomics podcast. Subscribe via Apple Podcast, Spotify or Pocket Cast.The European Central Bank is done with cutting interest rates despite persistent downside risks to growth, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.With officials increasingly concerned about the impact of negative rates and President Christine Lagarde about to announce a strategic review, most respondents said monetary policy is on autopilot for the next two years. That’s a turnaround from the previous survey which predicted more easing in June. Economists now see the next move as a rate hike by the first quarter of 2022.Lagarde, who holds her first policy meeting on Dec. 12, is facing mounting pressure from banks and politicians who say subzero rates are damaging the financial system and hurting savers. It suggests her review will have to investigate other ways of using the ECB’s toolkit to revive inflation.“We don’t think they are going to ease, but if they were going to ease the pressure to do something else rather than cut rates is going to be quite high,” said Peter Schaffrik, a global macro strategist at RBC in London. “This is certainly not an environment to pile something on top after the implementation of the last program.”The last program was a package of measures in September, weeks before Mario Draghi handed the presidency to Lagarde. He fought off unprecedented opposition in the Governing Council to lower the deposit rate to minus 0.5%, resume quantitative easing and give banks easier terms on long-term loans.Since then, multiple policy makers have expressed unease over the threat to financial stability as investors turn to riskier investments, a concern that was also at the forefront of the ECB’s own financial stability review. Markets are no longer pricing a rate cut next year.Economists in the survey expect the Governing Council to change its guidance on future policy by September. It currently pledges that interest rates will remain at current “or lower” levels until inflation is entrenched back at the target.“Under the assumption of a gradual, though modest, recovery in economic growth, we think the bar for another rate cut or a step up of asset purchases is currently high,” said Barclays economists Philippe Gudin and Christian Keller.Bond purchases will most likely continue until late 2021, according to survey respondents. They don’t foresee the monthly pace of 20 billion euros ($22 billion) changing until one month before completion of the program, nor are new asset classes such as equities likely to be added to the mix. That may reflect a bet that Lagarde won’t want to reopen old wounds -- QE was at the heart of the dissent over September’s decision.The economic outlook remains cause for concern. While recent data suggest the euro zone’s downturn may be bottoming out and tensions in the U.S.-China trade war may be easing, economists aren’t counting on the ECB making major revisions to its forecasts. They still see a recession as a near-term risk.Strategic ThinkingRespondents said Lagarde’s strategy review will be announced by January -- a significant minority think it will happen next week -- but their expectations are modest. A majority expect the Governing Council to agree to flexibility around the inflation goal, allowing price growth to overshoot or undershoot for a while.They were split on whether the current target of “below, but close to, 2%” will be tightened. Some policy makers argue that phrasing risks leaving inflation too weak, and would prefer to set it at precisely 2%.A quarter of respondents expect an agreement on more transparency in the decision-making process with policy makers voting on measures and those votes being published.Climate ConflictLagarde has already made clear that the review will also consider how the ECB should react to climate change, an issue of rising global importance but a controversial one for central bankers. She and some of her colleagues have tried to temper expectations, saying price stability remains the key objective.The survey suggests that climate won’t become a factor in setting monetary policy over the next 12 months. Rabobank economists Bas van Geffen and Elwin de Groot don’t expect the ECB to set any specific targets, though they could eventually exclude the bonds of polluters from QE “in an attempt to win over some of the general public.”TLTRO TimeThe morning of Lagarde’s policy meeting will also reveal how banks are responding to the ECB’s program of three-year loans, with the takeup of the second round of offerings. Respondents predict demand will be 120 billion euros.To contact the reporters on this story: Piotr Skolimowski in Frankfurt at pskolimowski@bloomberg.net;Harumi Ichikura in London at hichikura@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Gordon at pgordon6@bloomberg.net, Jana RandowFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Moody's

    Prime Trust -- Moody's Canadian ABCP activity for the week ended November 29, 2019

    Moody's has reviewed the following ABCP programs in conjunction with the proposed amendments. At this time the amendments, in and of themselves, will not result in any rating impact on the respective program's ABCP. Moody's does not believe they will have an adverse effect on the credit quality of the securities such that the Moody's rating is impacted.

  • Royal Bank of Canada (RY) Q4 Earnings Impress, Revenues Up

    Royal Bank of Canada (RY) Q4 Earnings Impress, Revenues Up

    Royal Bank of Canada's (RY) Q4 results impress on revenue growth, along with escalating loans and deposit balances.

  • Company News for Dec 5, 2019

    Company News for Dec 5, 2019

    Companies In The News Are: HQY, CRM, CPB, RY

  • CNW Group

    RBC Global Asset Management Inc. announces November sales results for RBC Funds, PH&N Funds and BlueBay Funds

    RBC Global Asset Management Inc. announces November sales results for RBC Funds, PH&N Funds and BlueBay Funds

  • British Pound Touches Highest Since May in Vote for Conservatives

    British Pound Touches Highest Since May in Vote for Conservatives

    (Bloomberg) -- Want the lowdown on European markets? In your inbox before the open, every day. Sign up here.The pound touched the highest level against the euro in more than two-and-a-half years as traders stepped up bets for a Conservative victory in next week’s election.It advanced against most major peers as polls showed the ruling Tories holding their lead over Jeremy Corbyn’s left-wing Labour Party. Sterling earlier reached a seven-month high against the dollar as U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to the U.K. unfolded relatively smoothly, defying speculation his presence could undermine Prime Minister Boris Johnson.Investors see a Conservative majority on Dec. 12 as the most market-positive outcome, as it would allow Johnson to push his Brexit deal through Parliament in time for next month’s deadline and move on to the next phase of talks with the European Union. Trump’s visit had been seen as a risk for the Conservatives, who face questions over how the National Health Service would fare in any future trade deal with the U.S.“With just over a week to go, sterling remains highly influenced by the polls day-to-day, but we may also be seeing some relief that Trump did not toss a grenade into the U.K. political system during his remarks,” said Ned Rumpeltin, European head of currency strategy at Toronto-Dominion Bank. “A break above the October high at $1.3013 may open the door for a test of $1.3185.”Despite confidence in a Conservative win, some traders are protecting themselves against a fall in the pound over the next week on speculation it has rallied too far, too fast. One-week risk reversals on the pound-dollar, a barometer of sentiment and positioning, show investors are the most bearish on sterling since October.The pound gained as much as 0.9% to $1.3109, the highest since May 7. It rallied as much as 0.8% to 84.58 pence per euro, the strongest level since May 2017. The currency has acted as a barometer of political risk throughout the Brexit process and has recovered about 9% against the dollar since hitting an almost three-year low in September, on hopes of an end to the uncertainty.Royal Bank of Canada sees a 60% chance of a Conservative majority next week, leading to the “near certainty” of Brexit at the end of January on the terms of Johnson’s deal. Under a Labour-led coalition, meanwhile, “almost all roads lead to a second referendum, to which we would apply a 60/40 probability of a vote to remain,” Adam Cole, chief currency strategist, said in a note.Pollsters say this election is a tough one with voters prone to switching parties as Brexit disrupts traditional allegiances. Surprise results in the Brexit vote and the last election also mean such surveys are seen as less reliable.For Credit Suisse, a sizable majority for Johnson’s Conservatives is required to continue the currency’s rally. The currency looks vulnerable after the Dec. 12 vote unless the Conservatives win a “solid” majority of 40 seats or more, according to strategists including Shahab Jalinoos.Data from the Bank of England last week showed foreign investors selling U.K. government bonds in October at the fastest pace since February. That month saw the U.K. prime minister secure a last-minute Brexit deal and extension to the deadline, before Parliament voted to back his bid for a December election. Gilts, which have acted as a haven from Brexit risk, slipped to send 10-year yields up four basis points to 0.71%.(Adds context on options in fifth paragraph, updates pricing.)\--With assistance from Vassilis Karamanis.To contact the reporter on this story: Charlotte Ryan in London at cryan147@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Dana El Baltaji at delbaltaji@bloomberg.net, William Shaw, Michael HunterFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • RBC Misses Estimates in Tough Times for Investment Banking

    RBC Misses Estimates in Tough Times for Investment Banking

    (Bloomberg) -- Dwindling dealmaking and testy markets caught up with Royal Bank of Canada, leading to the company’s first quarterly profit decline since the start of 2018.The bank’s capital-markets division had its worst quarter in two years for profit and revenue, with lower investment-banking fees and higher provisions causing a 12% earnings drop for the unit. The decline at RBC Capital Markets, which accounts for about a fifth of the bank’s overall profit, undercut gains in consumer banking and pushed fiscal fourth-quarter earnings below analysts’ expectations.“This was a rare miss for Royal,” Barclays Plc analyst John Aiken said in a note to clients. “Capital markets earnings were down on the back of lower advisory fees as well as higher provisions and expenses.”RBC Capital Markets was hurt by a tough year for dealmaking, with a 15% decline industrywide in the value of mergers and acquisitions and a 6% drop in equity financings hurting fee pools. At Royal Bank, investment-banking fees fell 17% to C$428 million ($322 million) in the period, the lowest since the first quarter.“Corporate investment banking was impacted by an industrywide decline in fee pools as some clients stayed on the sidelines given ongoing economic uncertainty,” Royal Bank Chief Executive Officer Dave McKay said on a conference call Wednesday. “Our results were further impacted by delays in the completion of deals in our pipeline.”The company’s shares slumped 2% to C$105.05 at 9:46 a.m. in Toronto. They have risen 12% this year, in line with the gain for Canada’s eight-company S&P/TSX Commercial Banks Index.Trading revenue was C$706 million, the lowest in a year. RBC Capital Markets also set aside C$78 million for provisions, more than double the amount a year earlier and up 39% from the third quarter.Overall, Royal Bank’s net income slipped 1.4% to C$3.21 billion in the three months through Oct. 31, its first decline since the first quarter of 2018. Adjusted per-share earnings were C$2.22, missing the C$2.27 average estimate of 14 analysts in a Bloomberg survey.Royal Bank still ended the year with profit of C$12.9 billion, extending a record streak that stretches back to 2011, though the pace of earnings growth is cooling. This year’s 3.5% earnings increase marked the slowest annual growth for the Canadian bank in a decade.Also in the report:Earnings from Canadian banking, the company’s biggest unit, rose 6.3% to C$1.56 billion in the quarter.Royal Bank is showing continued strength in its domestic mortgage business, which is the largest among Canada’s big lenders. Domestic mortgage balances rose 7.3%, the biggest year-over-year increase since 2016, to a record C$265 billion.Royal Bank’s $5 billion takeover of City National in 2015 has helped lift revenue over the past four years. Profit from wealth management rose 32% to C$729 million, partly due to a C$134 million gain in the quarter from selling the private debt business of BlueBay Asset Management.The investor and treasury services division had a 71% decline in earnings to C$45 million after the bank pursued a “repositioning” of the business that included C$83 million in severance costs in the quarter. Royal Bank has pared roles in Europe and reduced its footprint in Australia as part of what McKay called a “quick pivot” into Asia.McKay announced during Wednesday’s call that Chief Administrative Officer Jennifer Tory is retiring “shortly.” Tory previously served as group head of personal and commercial banking.(Updates with CEO’s comment in fifth paragraph, shares in sixth.)To contact the reporter on this story: Doug Alexander in Toronto at dalexander3@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Michael J. Moore at mmoore55@bloomberg.net, ;David Scanlan at dscanlan@bloomberg.net, Daniel TaubFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Royal Bank (RY) Misses Q4 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

    Royal Bank (RY) Misses Q4 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

    Royal Bank (RY) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of -3.45% and -4.25%, respectively, for the quarter ended October 2019. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?

  • Royal Bank of Canada sees deals pickup in 2020 following sluggish quarter

    Royal Bank of Canada sees deals pickup in 2020 following sluggish quarter

    "We did see a number of large marquee deals move from Q4 of 2019 to Q1 of 2020," CFO Rod Bolger said in an interview. "So we do have a strong backlog as a result, going into 2020." Capital markets accounted for 18% RBC's net income. Gabriel Dechaine, an analyst at National Bank of Canada Financial Markets, said the division's woes are far from over.

  • CNW Group

    Maryann Turcke to be appointed to the Board of Directors of Royal Bank of Canada

    TORONTO , Dec. 4, 2019 /CNW/ - Royal Bank of Canada (RY on TSX and NYSE) today announced that Maryann Turcke will be appointed to its board of directors, effective January 1, 2020 . Ms. Turcke is Chief Operating Officer of the National Football League (NFL), overseeing all facets of the operation, including: marketing, technology, social and digital media assets, brand, global events and corporate functions, which encompasses human resources, and public and government affairs. Before joining the NFL in 2017 as President, NFL Network, Ms. Turcke held progressively senior leadership roles over 12 years at Bell Canada Enterprises (BCE), most recently as President, Bell Media .

  • CNW Group

    Royal Bank of Canada declares dividends

    Royal Bank of Canada declares dividends

  • CNW Group

    Royal Bank of Canada Reports Fourth Quarter and 2019 Results

    Royal Bank of Canada Reports Fourth Quarter and 2019 Results

  • Oil Rises as Prospects for Deeper OPEC Cuts Take Center Stage

    Oil Rises as Prospects for Deeper OPEC Cuts Take Center Stage

    (Bloomberg) -- Oil rose the most in more than a week as traders sifted for fresh signals of whether OPEC and allied crude producers will tighten supplies when they meet later this week.Futures settled 1.4% higher in New York on Monday. Iraq has been hinting that the so-called OPEC+ group may shrink output again, contradicting other cartel members insisting deeper cuts are not in the cards. Money managers boosted bets on a price rally to the highest in six months.“The OPEC comments are unique to oil and keeping the market in the green,” said Robert Yawger, futures director at Mizuho Securities USA LLC in New York.Hedge funds increased their net-bullish position on the U.S. benchmark crude, or the difference between bullish and bearish bets, by 15% to 103,790 contracts, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Monday.Long-only wagers rose 12%, while shorts dropped 14%. The report was delayed from its usual Friday release because of the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S.Earlier in Monday’s session, futures surrendered some gains in response to a surprise decline in U.S. construction spending and a fourth straight monthly contraction in American manufacturing activity.For more, listen to this mini-podcast on the Dec. 5-6 OPEC+ eventAdding to the gloomy data was a report that U.S. President Donald Trump was ready to hit China with stiffer tariffs if efforts toward a trade truce between the world’s two largest economies falter. Crude still hasn’t recovered from Friday’s 5.1% slump that was the worst in 2 1/2 months.West Texas Intermediate for January delivery settled up 79 cents to $55.96 a barrel the New York Mercantile Exchange.Brent for February settlement rose 43 cents to $60.92 on London’s ICE Futures Europe Exchange, and traded at a $5.01 premium to WTI for the same month.Also see: OPEC+ Gambles That U.S. Shale’s Golden Age Is OverTo contact the reporters on this story: Sheela Tobben in New York at vtobben@bloomberg.net;Carlos Caminada in Calgary at ccaminada1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: David Marino at dmarino4@bloomberg.net, Joe Carroll, Carlos CaminadaFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Morgan Stanley Probes Alleged Mismarking in Currency Trading

    Morgan Stanley Probes Alleged Mismarking in Currency Trading

    Morgan Stanley (MS) is investigating alleged mismarking of securities and hence has fired four traders.

  • Royal Bank (RY) Earnings Expected to Grow: Should You Buy?

    Royal Bank (RY) Earnings Expected to Grow: Should You Buy?

    Royal Bank (RY) possesses the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.

  • MoneyShow

    Two Ways to Bank on Canada

    Gavin Graham is a specialist in international securities and has held senior positions in financial organizations in London, Hong Kong, and Toronto. Here, the contributing editor to Internet Wealth Builder reviews two recommendations among Canadian banks.

  • CNW Group

    RBC Launches Tech for Nature

    TORONTO , Nov. 26, 2019 /CNW/ - RBC today announced the launch of RBC Tech for Nature – a multi-year commitment by the RBC Foundation to new ideas, technologies and partnerships focused on protecting our shared future. Data and technology have the power to transform and improve the world we live in. Using a more than money approach, RBC will bring together charitable partners, technology experts, the public and private sector, as well as our own unique capabilities to build the type of multi-partner coalitions needed to address and work toward solving our shared environmental challenges.

  • RBA Says QE Is Option at 0.25%, Doesn’t Expect to Need It

    RBA Says QE Is Option at 0.25%, Doesn’t Expect to Need It

    (Bloomberg) -- Explore what’s moving the global economy in the new season of the Stephanomics podcast. Subscribe via Apple Podcast, Spotify or Pocket Cast.Australian central bank chief Philip Lowe laid out his cards for unconventional policy: A government bond-buying program is an option at a 0.25% cash rate, but the threshold for such stimulus hasn’t been reached and is unlikely to be in the near term.“In my view, there is not a smooth continuum running from interest-rate reductions to quantitative easing,” Lowe, who has lowered the benchmark rate three times since June to 0.75%, said Tuesday evening in the text of a speech in Sydney. “It is a bigger step to engage in money-financed asset purchases by the central bank than it is to cut interest rates.”The governor’s highly anticipated address came as speculation mounts that the Reserve Bank will be forced to turn to unorthodox measures as it struggles to push down unemployment enough to revive inflation. This view has been reinforced by government resistance to deploying fiscal measures to support the economy as conventional rate ammunition runs low.In his speech to Australian business economists, Lowe set out the conditions under which QE could be deployed. It would be considered if there were “an accumulation of evidence that, over the medium term, we were unlikely to achieve our objectives” under current circumstances, he said.“In particular, if we were moving away from, rather than towards, our goals for both full employment and inflation, the purchase of government securities would be on the agenda of the board,” he said. “In this world, I would hope other public policy options were also on the country’s agenda,” he added, a thinly veiled reference to fiscal measures.The Australian dollar rose for the first time in five days after Lowe’s comments, gaining as much as 0.2% to 67.95 U.S. cents.In his speech, the governor distilled an international report he’d overseen that reviewed the experience of unconventional policy tools. He then looked at how these might apply to Australian financial markets and the economy.His observations included:negative rates are “extraordinarily unlikely” in Australiathere was no appetite at the RBA for outright purchases of private-sector assets in a QE program“a package of measures” works best with unconventional policy, and clear communication “enhances credibility”Lowe said “that if -- and it is important to emphasize the word if -- the RBA were to undertake a program of quantitative easing,” it would buy government bonds in the secondary market.An important advantage of this “is that the risk-free interest rate affects all asset prices and interest rates in the economy,” Lowe said. “So it gets into all the corners of the financial system, unlike interventions in just one specific private asset market.”It would also have “a signaling effect,” with the bond purchases “reinforcing the credibility” of the RBA’s commitment to keep the cash rate low for an extended period.Insulated EconomyAustralia was among the few developed nations that avoided the financial meltdown in 2008 and global recession the following year. A combination of rapid fiscal and monetary response and China’s stimulus program helped insulate the economy. Now the RBA has returned to the community of developed market central banks as it considers bond purchases.“Our current thinking is that QE becomes an option to be considered at a cash rate of 0.25%, but not before that,” Lowe said. At 0.25%, the interest rate paid on surplus balances at the RBA would already be at zero given the corridor system the central bank operates, he said.Still, for all his discussion and dissection of unconventional policy -- and speculation from Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. that the central bank would move to QE next year -- Lowe sought to pour cold water on the notion.“The threshold for undertaking QE in Australia has not been reached, and I don’t expect it to be reached in the near future,” he said.The RBA is forecasting growth to accelerate to 3% in 2021, helping push down unemployment and lift inflation. Lowe said this scenario suggests the economy is moving in the right direction, albeit gradually.Lowe said the RBA board recognizes the limitations of monetary policy and is keeping the medium-term perspective focused on maximizing Australians’ economic welfare, the third leg of its mandate.“There may come a point where QE could help promote our collective welfare, but we are not at that point and I don’t expect us to get there,” the governor said.(Updates with market reaction.)To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Heath in Sydney at mheath1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Nasreen Seria at nseria@bloomberg.net, ;Malcolm Scott at mscott23@bloomberg.net, Michael S. ArnoldFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • RBC’s $100 Billion Woman Buys More Stocks, Just Not in the U.S.

    RBC’s $100 Billion Woman Buys More Stocks, Just Not in the U.S.

    (Bloomberg) -- The manager of some of the largest investment funds in Canada is favoring European and Asian stocks over North American.Sarah Riopelle, senior portfolio manager at RBC Global Asset Management Inc., boosted her equity allocation by 2 percentage points to 59% over the past month as she shifts her focus to markets outside of the U.S. and Canada.“Valuations are very cheap, reasonable within Europe and fundamentals seem to be improving,” Riopelle, who oversees funds managing about C$130 billion ($100 billion), said in an interview at Bloomberg’s Toronto office.More than one million Canadians are invested in funds she’s responsible for at the asset-management arm of Royal Bank of Canada, the country’s biggest bank by assets.The price-to-earnings ratios for European and Asian benchmark equity indexes are at 14.5 and 13.7 times respectively, compared with 16.2 for the U.S. That coupled with improving economic indicators, monetary stimulus and the steepening of yield curves propelled these international markets to the forefront. Geopolitical concerns in Europe have also eased with the chances of a no-deal Brexit dropping.Riopelle joins other strategists who have recommended buying euro-zone equities, citing the valuation discount and growth recovery prospects. EPFR Global data shows the fourth week of inflows for the region’s equity funds. Last week, the largest exchange-traded fund focused on European equities posted its biggest inflow since June 2017 in one session, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.Portfolio flows to Asia also surged in recent weeks, pushing year-to-date equity inflows to the region’s emerging markets excluding China to about $23 billion.After peaking at 61% two years ago, the funds had cut stocks “very gradually” to 57% this summer. “We are seeing signs that there’s some improvement in the economic metrics that make us a little bit more comfortable with a higher equity allocation. So we’ve been adding to stocks in two different trades,” Riopelle said.She still sees value in U.S. stocks:“We still think the U.S. market can generate positive returns over the next 12 months.”On the long list of risks that Riopelle and her team monitor, protectionism and U.S.-China trade are a big focus. While U.S. politics hog the headlines, investors aren’t paying as much attention to it, she said. Canadian investors frequently ask about the housing market, interest rates and oil prices with half of the nation’s benchmark index heavily weighted to financials and energy stocks.Riopelle oversees multiple funds under the Select banner, including the RBC Select Balanced Portfolio, the biggest investment fund in Canada with C$37 billion of assets. It’s returned 12% over the past 12 months, beating 88% of its peers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.Staying CompetitiveAs passive investing becomes increasingly popular, she’s also looking for new sources of alpha including private markets, which managers started entering about a year ago. The firm closed the first tranche for its RBC Canadian Core Real Estate Fund this month, raising C$1.25 billion, and has a C$8 billion mortgage business that she believes are good sources of alpha for clients.“The traditional model of a fundamental portfolio manager picking stocks -- it’s going to be harder and harder to support that going forward,” she said.To contact the reporter on this story: Divya Balji in Toronto at dbalji1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Madeleine Lim at mlim131@bloomberg.net, Jacqueline Thorpe, Vincent BielskiFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Here is The 14th Most Popular Stock Among 752 Hedge Funds
    Insider Monkey

    Here is The 14th Most Popular Stock Among 752 Hedge Funds

    The latest 13F reporting period has come and gone, and Insider Monkey is again at the forefront when it comes to making use of this gold mine of data. Insider Monkey finished processing more than 750 13F filings submitted by hedge funds and prominent investors. These filings show these funds' portfolio positions as of September […]