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Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc. (RYAM)

NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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7.43-0.02 (-0.27%)
At close: 4:00PM EDT
7.43 -0.01 (-0.13%)
After hours: 04:01PM EDT
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  • p
    progress
    Andy, oops--- CFRA has RYAM as STRONG BUY. Glass half empty or half full? Maybe you should close out your position. Or maybe trying to drive down price so a prospective buyer can get a better deal? Just asken-- pretty long write up if you have no interest-- so what is your dog in this fight? Just what game are you playing and for who?
    Bullish
  • A
    Andy
    This is spin pure and simple, Everyone who works in the dissolving wood pulp markets knows that this is mostly nonsense. None of the RYAM contracts for high purity cellulose allow for a price increase during the year. They are unlikely to see a single dollar from this.

    The key line is not 15 to 30%, it is "as contracts allow" - they don't allow and the customers will be enraged today by the threat.

    RYAM has done this before and its part of a pattern of deceit from the company and the CEO, Paul Boynton. It could be that this is a reaction to a blog post that I published last week:

    https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/50255590-andy-gee/5644815-rayonier-advanced-materials-decade-of-value-destruction

    The blog post directs people to a website : www.ryamvaluedestruction.com .

    In the short term, equity and debt investors might fall for this but not when they realise that RYAM did exactly the same thing a few years ago, they announced a 6% price increase and prices dropped in the following quarter by 2%; I will check the numbers but it is certainly the case that the last time they did this, no one saw their prices increase.
    Since 2012 when current CEO Paul Boynton took control RYAM has gone from being the industry leader in dissolving wood pulp (DWP) to an also-ran.
    Since 2012 when current CEO Paul Boynton took control RYAM has gone from being the industry leader in dissolving wood pulp (DWP) to an also-ran.
    seekingalpha.com
  • S
    StephenR
    What’s up
  • M
    Max
    Deleveraging as they said they would. $150 million of retired debt should add another $.15 of EPS or so. Nice to see the stock up a bit, but I'm really looking forward to breaking back through $10 again. Maybe next spring. Let's hope.
  • M
    Max
    They are going to use $150m of the proceeds to pay down debt.

    They also started talking about dividends again and share repurchases down the line (albeit years away). First get the net leverage down, near term target of $650m in total debt, then look to invest in green opportunities.

    They say market conditions are turning in their favor for product sales at higher prices, yet input costs are also going significantly higher (chemical costs, wood, transportation/logistics - looking at double-digit inflation in 2022).

    It remains a mixed bag.

    The stock is range-bound until further notice. I don't see any reason for it to go below $6 now that the leverage is being dealt with, but, again, I don't really see the logic for the share price to move above $10, either, so...either it's time to sell covered calls or cut the position in half and find other opportunities.

    I'll give it a think.
  • A
    Amazonia
    Kind of a wild week for RYAM. Is it a meme stock now?
  • L
    Long Term
    $0.13 compared to $0.74 expected ???
  • M
    Max
    We benefited from a strong lumber recovery in the back half of 2020 and now, as we enter 2021, we see very positive momentum in the commodity pulp markets. With price increases in these markets combined with 2020 cost actions, we are well positioned to capture significant incremental cash flow which will allow us to reduce debt, invest in our core High Purity Cellulose business, and drive high-potential growth and innovation projects," concluded Mr. Boynton.

    ---

    Am I crazy, or does that sound.... optimistic?
  • w
    wiley
    New $10 price target at RBC

    Valuation (1/8/2021): Our $10 price target is based on a blended ~5.5x EV/EBITDA multiple on our trend EBITDA estimate (85% weight) of $385MM and our 2021 EBITDA forecast of $191MM (15% weight). Our valuation multiple reflects issues across the company’s operations and weakening investor sentiment, and it is below the range in which we believe US forest products companies should typically trade (6.0x to 8.0x), reflecting near-term weakness and high debt .Our price target supports an Outperform rating
  • M
    Melvin
    BofA maintains Buy rating on RYAM and $11.50 PT

    Rayonier Advanced Materials: Post 1Q: Favorable mkt conditions, FCF & deleveraging keep us at Buy
    5/6/2021 1:13 AM

    We reiterate Buy on RYAM following sell-off (-23% post-reporting) and given favorable mkt conditions across product lines. RYAM should also generate well above $100mn in FCF in 2021 and we expect it to delever, lessening a key overhang for stock. Raise 2021 EBITDA forecast on strength in lumber & DP/fluff prices. Recent pulp price gains should provide tailwind in 2Q/3Q.
  • M
    Melvin
    RYAM 8K filing on Dec. 7th Notes:
    As part of previously disclosed portfolio optimization efforts, RYAM is currently in discussions regarding a potential sale of various Canadian assets it
    views as non-core to its long-term strategy.
  • M
    Melvin
    Just released 1st Qtr results exceeded my expectations...
    First Quarter Highlights
    • First quarter loss from continuing operations was $25 million, comparable to the prior year
    • First quarter EBITDA was $27 million, a $17 million improvement from prior year driven by lower costs from improved reliability
    • $35 million improvement on Free Cash Flow from prior year
    • Maintaining solid liquidity at $145 million; well within financial debt covenant compliance
    • Expect second quarter 2020 results to be well above prior year
  • M
    Melvin
    Nearly 65% increase in RYAM stock price for 2020. Business fundamentals improving. Can we repeat 2020 stock price performance in 2021 and end the year at a stock price of at least $11 per share?

    Best wishes for a safe and prosperous 2021!
    Bullish
  • M
    Max
    Looking at this stock for RBC, 5-star analyst Paul Quinn sees a clear path forward for Rayonier, saying, “Rayonier Advanced reported Q3 results that were above RBC/consensus expectations due to much better-than-expected High Purity Cellulose segment results, with Cellulose Specialties in particular exceeding our estimates. In our view, negative trends in the company's core Cellulose Specialties business have weighed on the share price over the last few years; while just one data point, positive trends and (slowly) falling leverage make Rayonier Advanced an attractive investment, in our view."

    A little institutional support can go a long way for this stock. Nice to see.
  • M
    Max
    Incremental progress. But it feels like it's always something. Shipping constraints this quarter. Would have been nice to see some sequential top-line growth in HPC but I guess that's too much to ask.

    It's clear now what direction they are moving. I'm thinking that's a business with a pretty long runway, similar to EV batteries and such. It's all part of the transition away from petrochemicals. But I have no idea how quickly that market will ramp.

    I don't see any reason for the stock to go down. But given the lack of topline growth in their main segment, it's hard to see the rationale for raising price targets.

    I guess we'll see.
  • M
    Max
    RBC raises price target to $10 from $9
    RBC raises to outperform from sector perform
  • M
    Max
    Down 6% on 87k shares. That's funny. It must be nice to be a crooked market-maker.
  • M
    MrMicroCap
    Going to be HUGE windfall for any producers of packaging - covid is driving more people to buy and ship to the home. A larger percentage of it is unrecoverable - people don't recycle as well as businesses do. Get ready for some eye popping results.
    Bullish
  • e
    eleazar
    As suspected, institutional investors run to the exits as price hits below $5.00. Half the ave daily volume was reached in the first hour of trading today.
  • M
    Melvin
    Look ahead into 2021
    1) High purity cellulose makes up roughly 60% of RYAM revenue. Per their 10k from 2019, half of the HPC volume falls under their commodity segment while the other half falls under their specialties segment. Per RYAM latest earnings release, sell prices for their commodity segment will increase significantly for Q1 2021 and remain elevated for the near term. Prices for their specialties segment will be down slightly from 2020.
    2) Forest Products makes up roughly 25% of RYAM revenue. Lumber prices and lumber futures prices for 2021 remain strong. In addition, RYAM is projecting a 7% increase in volume for 2021.
    Based on strong markets for HPC commodity products and high lumber prices (plus increased volume), RYAM should have a solid improvement in cash flow in 2021 versus 2020.
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