|Bid||53.00 x 300|
|Ask||0.00 x 0|
|Day's Range||55.95 - 56.97|
|52 Week Range||32.63 - 58.09|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||59.62|
|Earnings Date||May 1, 2018 - May 7, 2018|
|Forward Dividend & Yield||1.20 (2.15%)|
|1y Target Est||47.25|
The government of new Peruvian President Martin Vizcarra said on Wednesday it would not "impose" mining projects on nearby communities that object to them, but would seek to promote mining investments to take advantage of improved mineral prices. In the past decade, Southern Copper Corp and Newmont Mining Corp have shelved proposed mines in Peru because of opposition from communities worried about the environmental impact - one of the biggest hurdles to building mines in the world's No. 2 copper producer. Peruvian Prime Minister Cesar Villanueva said the government would encourage mining but only approve projects that respect the environment and have support from communities.
Previously in this series, we’ve looked at Freeport-McMoRan’s (FCX) 1Q18 earnings estimates and the key updates that markets might watch for on the company’s earnings call. In this final article of our series, we’ll see how analysts are rating Freeport ahead of its 1Q18 earnings release. Freeport has received a “strong buy” rating from one analyst while six analysts have a “buy” rating on the stock. Thirteen analysts have rated Freeport a “hold” or some equivalent, while the remaining three analysts polled by Thomson Reuters on April 17 rate the stock a “sell.” Freeport has received a mean consensus price target of $20.57, which represents 12.4% upside over April 17 closing prices.
Grasberg issues could dominate Freeport’s 1Q18 earnings call. There are several uncertainties over Freeport’s Indonesia operations. See Uncertainties Surround Freeport’s Indonesia Operations to look at the issues Freeport is grappling in Indonesia. The Grasberg issues could also be affecting Freeport’s valuation.
In the previous part of this series, we noted that Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) expects its 1Q18 copper shipments to be similar to the sequential quarter. Meanwhile, for commodity producers Antofagasta (ANTO), Southern Copper (SCCO), and Rio Tinto (RIO)(TRQ), commodity prices have a higher impact on earnings than shipments. In this article, we’ll see how commodity prices played out in 1Q18 amid the US-China trade war and how it could impact Freeport’s financial performance.
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is scheduled to release its 1Q18 earnings on April 24. In this article, we’ll see what analysts are projecting for Freeport’s 1Q18 revenues. Freeport managed to beat its revenue estimates by a wide margin in the last two consecutive quarters.
Copper prices have been subdued this year. Copper prices tend to be sensitive to geopolitical developments. Since China is the world’s largest copper consumer, copper prices react to any event associated with the country.
Short interest is low for SCCO with fewer than 5% of shares on loan. The last change in the short interest score occurred more than 1 month ago and implies that there has been little change in sentiment among investors who seek to profit from falling equity prices.
China is the world’s biggest copper importer. Copper mining is concentrated in Latin America (ILF). Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and Southern Copper (SCCO) have plants in the copper-rich region. China’s copper imports are seen as an indicator of the country’s copper demand. In this article, we’ll look at China’s March 2018 copper imports.
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is valued at an EV-to-EBITDA (enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) multiple of 4.5x, whereas copper mining peers Antofagasta (ANTO) and Anglo American (AAL-L) have EV-to-EBITDA multiples of 5.5x and 4.7x, respectively, and Southern Copper (SCCO) and Glencore (GLNCY) have multiples of 5.8x and 11.0x. Based on the above 2018 multiples, Freeport appears to be the cheapest among the copper mining stocks we’re covering, while Southern Copper appears to be the most expensive. This year has been an unusual one for Freeport, as it is ending open-pit mining at its Grasberg mine.
Firstly, as China is the world’s largest copper consumer, anything negative for the Chinese economy is a bearish driver for industrial metals. BHP Billiton (BHP), Vale (VALE), and Rio Tinto (RIO) rely heavily on China’s metal appetite. A US-China trade war could impact the Chinese economy.
Pure-play copper miners Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and First Quantum Minerals (FM) had fallen 5.7% and 1.9%, respectively, this year as of April 6. What does this divergence between copper and miner stock prices tell us? In the case of copper miners such as Antofagasta (ANTO), earnings are sensitive to changes in copper prices.
Whether markets are in a state of deficit or surplus is a function of both supply and demand. In this article, we’ll look at leading copper miners’ 2018 operating plans to gauge how copper supply could play out this year. According to CNBC, Codelco CEO Nelson Pizarro stated that the world’s largest copper miner expects to produce “slightly more than 1.7 million tonnes of copper in 2018.” Codelco produced 1.7 billion pounds of copper last year, and the company expects its 2018 copper production to be similar.
Copper miners, including Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Southern Copper (SCCO), and Antofagasta (ANTO), rallied last year as the metal surged ~30%. The charges are paid by copper miners to smelters for processing copper concentrates. Over the last year or so, LME inventory changes have been notorious for their timing, with sudden rises or falls impacting copper prices.
In 2018, some observers expected copper to remain bullish amid a wave of labor contracts at leading copper mines including BHP Billiton’s (BHP) Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine. Also, Antofagasta (ANTO) managed to avert a strike at its Los Pelambres copper mine. To contrast, in 2017, there were disruptions at several mines, including some operated by Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Southern Copper (SCCO), and Teck Resources (TECK). In the next article, we’ll see what fundamentals suggest for copper prices.
Copper prices have come under pressure this year. While commodities generally follow underlying demand-supply dynamics in the long term, according to some observers, copper prices also tend to reflect macro developments. Copper has been dubbed “Doctor Copper” for precisely this reason.
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), the leading US-based copper miner, had fallen 5.7% in 2018 as of April 6. Other copper miners saw selling pressure as well. Antofagasta (ANTO) had fallen 8.9%, while First Quantum Minerals (FM) had fallen 1.9%. However, Southern Copper (SCCO) had risen 15.3%. The company, like Turquoise Hill Resources (TRQ), is a pure-play copper miner.
China's tariff policy hasn't affected Micron Technology's quarterly earnings yet, but it could. The company gets about 50% of its revenue from China.
Glencore (GLNCY) has received “strong buy” ratings from seven analysts, while 12 analysts have given it “buy” or equivalent ratings. The stock carries a mean consensus target price of 4.59 Great British pounds, which represents a 26.4% upside over its March 27 closing price. The stock carried a target price of 4.19 pounds at the beginning of 2018.
The market topping process is volatile, but watch for high-momentum, overvalued stocks with negative expectations to lead the way down. A screen for these stocks returned a group of seven short candidates. ...
As we discussed earlier, copper rose sharply in December 2017. Among other factors, a wave of labor negotiations has lent support to copper’s bullish thesis. Notably, labor contracts at several leading copper mines, including BHP Billiton–operated (BHP) Escondida, are coming up for negotiation this year.