|Bid||0.00 x 1000|
|Ask||0.00 x 2200|
|Day's Range||54.11 - 54.20|
|52 Week Range||54.02 - 56.10|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.05%|
US bond market investors were relieved after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ April report, published May 10, indicated a lower-than-expected inflation growth rate. The latest inflation (VTIP) report indicated that core inflation increased at a slower pace of 0.1% in April, boosting hopes for a slower pace of rate hikes from the Fed. At its May meeting, the Fed stated that it would continue tightening and inflation (TDTT) would reach 2% in future months. The decline in bond yields after the disappointing jobs and inflation reports could be temporary, as inflation expectations may be fueled by higher crude prices.
On May 10, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that US consumer prices rose 0.2% in April. In contrast, they fell 0.1% in March. The April growth kept the uptrend in inflation (TIP) growth intact. Over the last 12 months, US inflation has grown 2.5%, a steep increase from the 1.6% growth recorded in June 2017. Core inflation (VTIP), which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose just 0.1%, the slowest growth since November 2017. Over the last 12 months, core inflation has grown 2.1%, above the 2% target rate set by the Fed.
Longtime readers of Morningstar's research have heard us relentlessly beat the drum for funds that charge low fees. For all our manager research analysts' combing through historical portfolios, scrutinizing performance data, and grilling portfolio managers to formulate views on a fund's People and Process Pillars, there's no surer indicator that a fund has an advantage over its peers than a cheap price tag. Expenses are especially crucial to consider for fixed-income funds, because returns between bond funds tend to be more compressed.
In the May FOMC meeting, the US Federal Reserve observed that economic activity has been rising at a moderate pace. This trend was in line with the projections laid out in the summary of economic projections report released at its March meeting. In its most recent SEP release, the Fed upgraded its GDP growth outlook for 2018 by 0.2% to 2.7%, compared to the 2.5% growth outlook in December 2017 and a 2.1% forecast in September 2017.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis defines PCE (personal consumption expenditure) as the value of goods and services purchased by, or on behalf of, US residents. The Fed prefers this inflation (CPI) measure to assess price levels, as it reflects actual price increases for consumers.
The primary reason cited by the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) for holding off on interest rate hikes since 2016 was lagging inflation growth. Whenever the Fed signaled rate hikes, the yield curve flattened since investors were not convinced that inflation (TIP) growth would pick up the pace, which would limit the Fed’s ability to raise rates. The Fed has set a target of 2% inflation (VTIP) growth, at which point the economy is expected to be running at a normal pace.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (or BLS) released the “Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey” (or JOLTS) data for February on April 13. The data for this survey is collected by a monthly survey on job openings, the number of new employees hired, the number of employees who have quit, the number of employees asked to leave, and other job separations. The JOLTS report is an indication of the demand for workers in the United States.
The most recent inflation (VTIP) report indicated that core inflation moved closer to the Fed’s 2% target, which could translate into further rate hikes from the central bank. At its recent meeting, the Fed clearly stated that it would continue tightening if supported by economic data. If interest rates and inflation (SCHP) start rising, bond (BND) yields could rise in response and bond prices could fall. US bond yields were largely unaffected by the inflation report favoring higher rates.
On April 11, market participants expected a volatile session after the US inflation report, but, to their surprise, Donald Trump’s tweet earlier in the day about Syria and missiles pushed markets lower. Had there not been any geopolitical tensions, the market reaction could have been negative despite the lower headline number. A faster pace of rate hikes from the Fed may have contributed to the market performance that day. The Fed has been increasing interest (SCHP) rates at a slower pace in the last two years despite employment picking up, citing low inflation as the reason for its slower pace.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has reported that US consumer prices fell 0.1% in March. The labor department reported that the consumer price index fell 0.1% in March after rising 0.2% in February. Though the headline inflation (TIP) was lower than expected, core inflation (VTIP), which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% in March, marking a YoY (year-over-year) increase of 2.1%, above the Fed’s 2% target. This increase in core inflation, following strong growth by the producer price index in March, could translate to higher inflation in the coming months.
The March FOMC meeting minutes indicated that the staff and FOMC members turned bullish on inflation. According to the minutes, all of the FOMC members expected the 12-month inflation (TIP) to increase in the coming months. The FOMC staff review indicated that PCE (personal consumption expenditures) inflation remained below the 2% target.
In FOMC meeting minutes, a staff review of the economic situation is presented to the FOMC members. In the March meeting minutes, the FOMC staff review of the economy was stronger than the review presented at the January meeting. The short-term real GDP growth expectation was revised lower due to softness in recent economic data. The medium and long-term projections for economic growth were revised higher due to the expected positive impact of the recent federal budget and tax cuts. US unemployment is expected to remain below the longer-run natural rate. ...
The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), as part of its statutory mandate, seeks to foster maximum employment and stable prices (TIP). The efforts of the Fed with its accommodative monetary policy and excessive money printing helped bring back unemployment below the target rate of 4.5%. Over the last 12 months, unemployment levels have fallen to a 17-year low of 4.1%.
The FOMC’s (Federal Open Market Committee) March statement was released on Wednesday, March 21, 2018, and the outlook for the closely watched inflation remained muted. The statement indicated that on a 12-month basis, both inflation (CPI) and core inflation (which excludes food and energy) have continued to be below the 2% target rate. The summary of economic projections released along with the FOMC statement indicated minimal changes to the inflation growth outlook.
In its March FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, the Fed increased the Federal funds rate by 25 basis points and released the upgraded economic projections through the Summary of Economic Projections (or SEP) report. The report is released by the FOMC and contains the members’ projections for GDP growth, inflation (TIP), unemployment, and the policy interest rate.
In the first policy meeting under new Fed chair Jerome Powell, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) increased the interest rate by 0.25%. It increased the target range of the federal funds rate to 1.5%–1.75%, leaving the monetary policy stance accommodative in its effort to support a strong labor market and for inflation (TIP) to reach a sustained level of 2%. The decision to increase the US interest rate was unanimous with an 8–0 vote.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that US consumer prices increased marginally in February. The year-over-year increase in core inflation (TIP) was reported at 1.8%, unchanged from the January reading. The inflation (VTIP) reading for February was largely in line with expectations, which is easing investor fears about interest rates rising too quickly and impacting the growth rate of equity investments and depressing the value of bonds (BND).
The January FOMC meeting minutes indicated that the staff and the members turned bullish on inflation. The confidence of the members about inflation reaching the 2% target over the medium term was evident with the minutes stating that the staff expects core inflation (TIP) growth could be notably faster in 2018. The minutes indicated that almost all the members were of the view that inflation could move up to 2% over the medium term with no major risks to that outlook.
The CPI (consumer price index) measures the changes in prices at a consumer level. The CPI is the weighted average price of a basket of goods and services at the consumer level. The CPI includes food, medical care (XLV), transportation, housing, apparel, recreation, education and communication, and other goods.
Each day, Benzinga takes a look back at a notable market-related moment that happened on this date. What Happened? On this day 21 years ago, the U.S. Treasury introduced the first Treasury Inflation-Protected ...
The CPI (consumer price index) measures the price changes at a consumer level. The PPI (producer price index), which we discussed in the previous part, tracks the prices at a wholesale level. The CPI is a weighted average price of a basket of goods and services at the consumer level.
The last statement from the US Fed, which was released with its recent rate hike decision, cited lower levels of inflation but hopes that the inflation target could be achieved in 2018.
A lower unemployment rate is one of the key objectives of the Fed. In 2017, the unemployment rate fell, reaching 4.1% in its latest November reading.
The pace of interest rate hikes and inflation rate growth have a profound influence on the US yield curve. The US Fed has been communicating its intent to increase interest…