About 1 month to go before earnings. Anyone else thinking the next leg up is coming soon?
@John..I am not too concerned about a miss. My timeframe is a few years out, and I think we will reach and exceed the all time high of $71, given the bright signings forecast we hear on the CCs. Waiting is hard but will be rewarded.
Who here thinks we will get another significant design win before earnings?
Looks like there is a new investor presentation on Silicom's website (dated 9/12/17). Brief review seems to indicate change (at least from July 2017) appears to be a new slide (slide 18) about FPGA momentum builds which comments about a number of potential design wins are "already in motion".
Disclosure: I am long SILC
Does anyone have an idea as to how long a typical design win that goes into production lasts? I am sure the answer is it varies depending on the product, customer and end application.
In the past year, I have counted 10 announced design wins (you can check Silicom's website or SEC filings) 9/5/17: Cloud customer - 10G server adapter - $6M/yr ($1M P.O. already) 8/7/17: Network customer - FPGA network visibility solution - $300k P.O. already (no forecast but considering other solutions) 6/15/17: Cloud customer - Encryption HW acceleration - gradual ramp to $1M/yr 5/16/17: Flash-only storage customer - Compression solution - $1M/yr 4/3/17: Established Cyber-security customer - Bypass card - ramp to ~$1M/yr 3/21/17: Cloud customer - 100GB/s high bandwidth switch - ramp to >$30M/yr ($17M in POs already) 2/23/17: Encryption solution provider (existing customer) - Coleto-creek encryption card - $8M/yr in 2018 1/9/17: Object storage provider (one of largest tech company's - Cisco?) - connectivity adapter - slow ramp to $2M/yr 11/7/16: SD-WAN company - vCPE/Edge appliance - $1.3M shipment first 18 months, $2.5M order rate first year ramping to $5M/yr 10/18/16: Tier 1 monitoring company - Time-stamp/packet processing card - ramp to $1M/yr
If production forecasts are correct (a somewhat big "if") this adds up to >$50M/yr of new announced design-wins hitting over the next couple of years most likely. That doesnt include smaller orders/new design-in activity. With ~$100M in revenue and over 400 active design wins this averages to $250k/design win. The smallest projected design win announce was $300k/yr. This is just to lend credence to ongoing design wins that are not announced.
It does seem as though the frequency of higher volume design-win activity is increasing across a variety of product offerings. What is less clear is the diversity of the customer base this is spread across.
Disclosure: I am long SILC
Buying another 100 shares per day in here.......will be gold soon !!!
Breakout... next stop $67-70... there is no holding this puppy back now
3+ year high for SILC. Was 56.58 in April 2014. Congrats longs for your patience.
Up over 3 points for the week on no news. That has got to be a good sign. Comments?
nice new design win. Strength to Strength
Well, Looks like we just printed a multi- year high at least on an intraday basis. A close above $56.26 would be a matching multi-year closing high.
Seems obvious someone late last week knew this news was coming.....but, good news, indeed.......only short-term question, besides world war 3, is whether last week's buyers will take short-term gains......long-term looks better than ever.
I assume, btw, that " off the shelf " means that million bucks becomes part of Q3.
We most likely are completing a long term cup of $74 ish then blue sky breakout! 30% yoy growth is going to blow the roof off I think!
Handle being completed?
Just need to break to a newer high and we are off to the races like we should have been a long time ago.... Looking strong!
May see $60 this week. and $70 by year end. But I could be wrong.
I posted this earlier but the post appears to have been deleted. Just passing along some information regarding customers who represent >10% of revenue during the first half of 2017. No company names unfortunately disclosed. Looks like the top 2 customers represent almost 40% of the revenue, and while the third customer listed did not reach the 10% level, I suspect it is unlikely that revenue dropped drastically, just that it didnt reach the 10% threshold yielding 3 customers that comprise almost half of the company's revenue. There is certainly execution risk to maintain (and hopefully grow) those customers. Revenue grew $8.3M in the first half of 2017 over the comparable 2016 time. Not sure if the 1 large customer represents much of this growth or not, but it is certainly a possibility.
Company "A" 2017: $12,979k Company "A" 2016: * (<10% so no data provided)
Company "B" 2017: $8397k Company "B" 2016: $9667k
Company "C" 2017: * (<10% so no data provided) Company "C" 2016: $6382k
Disclosure: I am long SILC
another cloud win!
Options market maker must have underestimated us long time Silc holders. The long time posters on this board are smarter than the average investors out there. Did you notice Silc had options for three months and then no more? Maybe it had to do with being taken out of some of the indexes but sure seems strange or maybe the market maker lost his behind taking the other side of all the call options when the stock was trading in the mid to upper 40s. I know some will call me a cheerleader but I can't believe we are still at a little over $ 52. With these micro caps the market is truly inefficient in my mind. For those following the stock, we know the revenue and earnings are already going to be significantly higher next year but no one cares. The computers will figure this out after they beat the earnings guidance and will then jump on board but not until then. Feels to me as if we are going to go up 50% or more in one fellow swoop. The question is does it take 60 days, 180 days or will it be over the next year? Those who wait will be rewarded handsomely in my opinion.
Stock has been resilient the last couple days. I sold 1000 shares yesterday and somebody gobbled them up. Stock eventually sold off a little bit because the market rolled over in the afternoon only to bounce back today. Seems like somebody's accumulating.