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Silicon Motion Technology Corporation (SIMO)


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42.67-1.24 (-2.82%)
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  • Geezer and Wally: I saw a couple of interesting pieces of news (old news). 1st, Huawei got a lot of customer complain 2 months ago of its new Mate 9. Apparently Huawei advertised Mate 9 as a fast phone with UFS but some customers got eMMC instead. As it turned out, it was due to "severe shortage", as Huawei stated, of nand. Huawei UFS are from Samsung and Toshiba. If Huawei is short of supply, I think it shows how bad the situation is and more likely it caused the SIMO miss. Another piece, also old, was a report of the SK Hynix UFS, which showed quite bit lower speed than the speed that people say UFS can achieve. This might be an indication that SK Hynix UFS technology is not top notch, but I have not seen any comparison between different UFS makers...
  • Geezer: about Shannon, see below report of Chinese local government data center build to drive demand. All major internationals are now trying to build their "local" face to enter, but Shannon is already there. Wallace does have a pretty good long-term vision:
    With China's local governments looking to set up data centers, chip demand for data centers locally is set to surge, according to industry sources.

    Meanwhile, as data center installations are set to surge in China, the demand outlook for new applications, such as Big Data, cloud infrastructure and artificial intelligence (AI), appears promising locally, the sources indicated.

    International chip firms and mobile electronics vendors are seeking cooperation with China's local governments to be part of the government-led data center projects. Apple and Qualcomm have both disclosed their participation.

    Apple recently signed an agreement with the government of Guizhou Province to invest US$1 billion to build a data center to promote its iCloud service in China. Apple will provide technical know-how for the data center, which will be operated by the provincial government-backed Guizhou-Cloud Big Data Industry Development.

    Qualcomm in 2016 reached a deal also with the government of Guizhou Province, and unveiled a joint venture - the Guizhou Huaxintong Semiconductor Technology. The JV, which will be 55% owned by the Guizhou provincial government's investment arm and 45% owned by Qualcomm, will focus on the design, development and sale of advanced server chipset technology in China.

    Many chip vendors are also gearing up to break into the supply chain of data centers set up in China, as they anticipate China will play a driver of the server and other related chip market growth in the next several years, according to industry sources. Those include Avago, Intel, AMD, ARM, Marvell and Socionext, and Taiwan-based MediaTek, Aspeed, Nuvoton, Parade and Phison.
  • There has been news from Taiwan that iphone 8 production delay is up to one month, with projected launch in November. The big question is, will they release some of the nand not been used to the market and get us an upside surprise for Q3?
  • The SIMO short interest declined from 4.1 million on 6/15 to 3.96 million on 6/30. That all happened prior to the pre-announcement. The change isn't much in the scheme of things, but I think the direction (down rather than up in front of some pretty bad news) is reassuring. More shorts admitted that they think SIMO would move up rather than down going forward, so they closed out their short position. If the bad news had leaked out, we would have expected the short position to increase rather than decrease. I think the short position probably increased a good bit following the release of weaker than expected Q2 revenues. If so, this once again sets SIMO up for a serious short squeeze if the NAND supply loosens up. As long as SIMO is not losing design slots and the weakness is only due to NAND production capacity issues, the revenue problem will reverse. The NAND makers are making lots of money now with high NAND memory prices due to short supply, so they will ALL increase capacity as fast as they can to make that extra money, until prices fall from over production by all of them. We all know it's coming, it's just a matter of when. Given that fact, I really don't understand the SIMO short theory. If SIMO has not lost design slots, we all know the revenue direction is up, it's just a matter of when. What are the shorts thinking that tells them that the revenue (and share price) direction is down? I don't know, if some bear has a long term SIMO short theory, please share it.
  • For the discussions on SIMO ROI and its future, I have a quick comment: SIMO got hot after it became a major card controller maker, got hurt really bad when people thought card business was going away. SIMO got hot again when it became one of the few transceiver builder and things went to hell when Samsung stopped buying. In the meantime, SIMO got hot as it teamed with SK Hynix to become a major eMMC player, and then to make it better, stole market from Marvel in 3 years to become #1 SSD controller maker.

    What does this story tell you? It shows a visionary leader who knows how to pick the technology trend before others and maximize the profit from it and repeat process. You look at any successful tech company, that is the #1 common character of them all. One can be stock traders and roll the dice, or one can find a business with a visionary leader and invest. Who do you want to be?

    One more example: Apple was as low as $2 when they got Steve Jobs back, and over the years there were so much worry about the next Apple product, and how much have those people who bought the shares at $2 made if they chose to belief and held the shares?
  • Geezer and Wally: The top seller of 10 SSD brands in China, and #2, 3, 5, 6,7 all use SIMO controllers, and I can find news for their new products with models such as 2262 and 2263. These module makers all focus in the Asian market so their names are less known in US market, but from this search, I cannot find any of them are leaving SIMO. For global top brands, I can see news of the latest SIMO models such as 2262 with Intel, Transcend, Apacer, Plextor and a few others, but many of these are just launching or about to launch, so I cannot find evidence of design loss, but more evidence that there were not a lot of new product launches in Q2.
  • I'll give James props for one thing: it makes no sense to own a sinking share price in a bull market. The market has been red hot. The problem is most stocks go down in a bear and if the market turns down SIMO won't get as much bang for the buck even if its business starts to turn up. Still holding but again kicking yself for not lightening up this time in the mid 50s. It semed to me like it was about to break through any overhead but it was weak for a while before the pre-announce. Don't get me wrong, still like the longer term outlook and this stock has done very well for me last 5 years or so. Just that there've been some opportunities missed by holding on.
  • I think this is how it will work out. The sale will continue, and the analysts will tell their VIP customers to buy, and when SIMO have the conference call, we will hear the main reason for the miss was the tight supply of nand, and the analysts will come out and reiterate their rating again, and share price will recover to attract retail investors to enter. Your thoughts?
  • Simo getting raped out of shape on a good day for stocks!
  • The shorts are in charge, and the pike on is probably continuing. These price drops always seem to attract more shorts, I don't know how they decide to cover their positions. I guess the next big bit of news is the Q3 guidance (will they lower full year guidance? what was the cause of the Q2 modest slowdown?). I think those two items could go either way, but I would still tend to think the result of more news is more likely to be good instead of bad (3D NAND must be getting more and more into high yield production each month that goes by). But something tells me the short position is just going up, so those guys must be betting on the end game where SIMO loses lots of its design slots. The thing is, we haven't seen any evidence of that actually happening. I can see Shannnon going to hell as the NAND makers beat Shannon with their own customized SSDs, but the eMMC/UFS area and the client SSD controller area, I don't think SIMO is losing design slots in those spaces, more likely the opposite. So.......once again, we wait for good news on the horizon. Bit of a bummer, but as long as it eventually appears that's fine with me.
  • So who are the buyers for the last few days? My guess is that many who bought as SIMO went up to $55 have sold and are selling the shares, but who are the buyers? We had 2+ million shares last Friday, followed by 1 million shares on Monday. I was a little surprised with that kind of volume that SIMO is not much lower than it is now. I think this support comes from the institutions who have inside knowledge on nand production and investment.

    Going back to the key quesiton: was SIMO's miss due to loss of design? I do not think so. If that turns out to be true, the risk then becomes when will nand supply actually be "adequate"? I think any maker will to keep the current nand prices, but tried and true economic principles will prevail so it becomes a game of who has the insight and buy at the dip. Are we bottoming? Are you buyers or sellers?
  • The Truth....quit posting...your embarrassing yourself. Apple releasing some of its NAND is the dumbest thing i have heard in a while.
  • Apple insider Gruber projected that Apple may not be able to achieve production of 40 million iphone8 unit per quarter, at least in the first quarter of release, due to short supply of the OLED screen. If this is true, it could be good news for all the DRAM and nand users since iphone8 is probably the biggest single user of nand at least, a top user of DRAM too.
  • One reason for the lower gross margins this quarter, as indicated in the last quarterly call, is because SIMO production this quarter is utilizing more highly-priced, newer inventory than what was used in the prior quarter. The market prices stocks generally on discounted cash flow analysis basis and the first half is now behind us thankfully. Proof of a rebound in actual NAND production would be helpful to help buoy the stock price. And fundamentally nothing has changed in the growth drivers but, of course, this engine needs gas (i.e., NAND) which is coming. In the mean time, this stock has very few shares outstanding and consequently has times when it is very volatile.
  • I think this is SIMO's first "miss" of its own guidance since Q2 2013. It's hard to interpret without an explanation of what caused the lower than expected revenues. It's a bummer as Q2 this year will be below Q2 lasts year, which seems strange since NAND is still increasing in deployment. I would think that even in a tight NAND supply environment that SIMO would grow year over year, the NAND makers are certainly producing more NAND this year than last year. But perhaps less units, but at a higher capacity? Who knows, but I don't like it.
  • We🌱find🌱comfort🌱among🌱those🌱who🌱agree🌱with🌱us🌱-- http://dataunion.tistory.com/3224

    Silicon Motion Technology Corp. NASDAQ : SIMO Correlation Histogram
    X axis : Stocks Price Correlation Coefficient Y axis : Quantity of stocks May-2016 1,000 Day Parameter 2,830 NASDAQ Stocks Price Analysis This stock mode of correlation coefficient is -0.8 In other words, the correlation coefficient of the other stoc
    dataunion.tistory.com
  • Interesting new with WDC once again trying to get its hand on Toshiba's NAND business. I wish we knew how strong SIMO was with WDC-SNDK's client SSD controller roadmap. I don't think SIMO gets much SSD business from Toshiba at all. If SIMO is strong with WDC as a SSD controller customer, and WDC bought Toshiba's NAND business, it's possible that a cost saving measure by WDC-Toshiba could be to cut out Toshiba's SSD client controller group and use SIMO SSD controllers instead. That would probably be a multi-year development (not soon), but it's a huge market opportunity for SIMO. I don't think SIMO has ever had a strong controller relationship with Toshiba.....
  • This is the problem with pre announcing results. Without further explanation, everyone is left speculating as to the reasons they slightly missed. The reasons could either mitigate or exacerbate what's going on but we won't know til the earnings release. Also, it seems like the earnings go pushed back a week. If that's because they want an extra week to gain more clarity on the business going forward, that's fine. Too many unknowns at this point, and that's why the stock is getting hammered.
  • Advice to Simo posters. New poster to Simo message board who goes by the name Satnam should be muted since his messages are all absurd and it appears he does so to elicit a response. ( I guess even a negative response is better then no response). He use to post nothing but absurd messages on the MU message board and the majority of posters have muted Satnam.
  • The Truth is putting out his usual #$%$. SIMO already said in last earnings call that their guidance was conservative and assumed little in the way of increased NAND procurement for SIMO. Thus, something else is going on here. They are going to lower guidance for the year from 0 to 10% growth to 0 to -10% growth. I think most were expecting SIMO's guidance to be conservative and were looking for about 10% growth this year. Coming in at -10% or a 20% delta would just be hideous.