Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI)

We don't learn from experience - we learn from reflecting on experience.

So it's a good time now to reflect on why SIRI investors like me continue to hold this stock, particularly with the range we've seen over the past 5 years. SIRI managed to get close to its potential when the stock soared above $8/share back in Jan/2021 but sadly, it returned to its $5.90 - $6.70 range very quickly.

I'm sure there are number of investors like myself who were fortunate to buy SIRI when it cratered back in 2008-2009. If you were one of those people, you saw John Malone's "white knight" takeover as a godsend.
I didn't buy SIRI at $.05/share but my average cost was $3+ prior to the collapse and I was determined, just like George Costanza in "Seinfeld", to "go down with the ship". For Seinfeld fans, you may remember that Jerry abandoned ship while George's investment skyrocketed.

I did buy a lot of SIRI stock as it climbed out of the abyss so my average cost got to be about $1 for a huge chunk of shares. I sold 3/4's of my shares over the years but I still have ownership in 6 figures. Most of my sales were $6+, with a lucky sale of $8 when I luckily put shares on a limit sale for that price and the miracle of Jan/2021 happened.

The return on my mostly $1 investment after I almost gave up has been 500%+. Not too many other stocks from 2009 with the same return. In addition, I happily collected the $.25/share special dividend in February 2022 along with the $.09/year dividend. When many top tier stocks are down in 2022, my return on SIRI has been 5%+ alone in dividends.

Maybe that's why I'm still loyal to the stock.

I still feel that with its satellites, installed chipsets, spectrum and content (especially live sports), that SIRI has tremendous potential with a value well above $6.50/share. Future cars will have significant driver assisted capabilities, allowing the driver and passengers to enjoy more entertainment like SIRI. Who knows - maybe the chipsets have a secret capability to allow for video or internet connections, or the satellites will be crucial for driver assistance.

I concede that Malone/Maffei and Liberty want to own 90% of SIRI and would like to repurchase shares at the lowest cost. I get that. However, there may come a time in the near future that Malone/Maffei may not be able to control the price or drive it down. OR they may find it to their advantage to let the stock price rise to its natural level, maybe $10+. Malone has always said that everything he owns is for sale at the right price. If he finds an investment opportunity that yields a higher return than SIRI, no doubt he'll sell SIRI for the right price and make that move.

Does anyone know the story of Jim Dolan and Cablevision's sale to Altice? For many years, Dolan turned down generous offers to buy Cablevision from several suitors. Back in 2015, when Cablevision was trading in the $teens, he met with Patrick Drahi of Altice who wanted to buy into the cable market of the US. Drahi offered Dolan $34/share IN CASH. SOLD. Of course, Dolan said he had to make the sale for the benefit of his shareholders but who was the biggest shareholder by far? Jim Dolan. Does that scenario sound familiar?

I've been patiently holding SIRI for 15+ years and I've been rewarded very nicely. Enough to allow me to retire 4 years early. I still have a feeling that the final chapter of SIRI will be written in the next 12 months so I'd like to stick around and see if I'll be rewarded with a fair price for my shares.

GLTA.

Someone else on here already posted this bizarre 'partnership' between Liberty and Apple - and I still keep getting reminder emails every few months:

"Enjoy up to 6 months of Apple Music free as a thank you for listening to SiriusXM. WITH APPLE MUSIC, you can play over 90 million songs ad-free across all your devices, and immerse yourself in spatial audio to hear sound all around."

Unless I'm missing something that one of the esteemed experts on this board can explain, isn't that a little like Ford offering free Chevy test drives to their loyal customers?

The Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate of Q2 U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) showed a 0.9% annualized decrease in economic growth for the three-month period ended June 30.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected data to show the U.S. economy grew at an annualized pace of 0.4% last quarter, according to consensus estimates.

During the prior quarter, U.S. economic activity unexpectedly contracted for the first time since the second quarter of 2020, when the the COVID-19 pandemic upended the global economy. The government's third and final estimate of first-quarter GDP showed a 1.6% annualized drop in economic growth to start 2022.

Something very odd emerges for the second month in a row when looking at the July payrolls report. Consider the following: on one hand, the closely followed establishment survey came in red hot, and not only did it soar despite the US entering a technical recession last week, it printed at a 5 month high of 528K, a six-sigm beat to consensus expectations of 250K.

When looking at the BLS's own far more detailed, if less closely watched, Household survey unlike the Establishment Survey, the June jobs change was a far smaller 179K increase, following last month's 315K drop.

Something appears to have snapped a few months ago, around March, when the Establishment Survey kept on rising unperturbed, while the Household Survey hit some unexplained brick wall, and hasn't moved at all.

In fact, since March, the Establishment Survey shows a gain of 1.680 million jobs while the Household Survey shows an employment loss of 168K!

Was SIRI worth $.05/ share
Back in 2008? Nope, but only Malone had the $500M to take advantage of the best sale of all time.
Got all his money back with 40% ownership in 6 months with interest!
Malone is still buying, folks through SIRI buy backs.
He must think it’s worth more than $6.40/share and so do I.