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San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT)

NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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12.71+0.48 (+3.92%)
At close: 04:00PM EDT
12.65 -0.06 (-0.47%)
After hours: 06:28PM EDT
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  • T
    Terry
    This was my post 2 months ago.
    Steven, these are my monthly payers:
    ADC, BRMK, DIA, EPR, FTCO, GLO, GOF, PSEC, QYLD, RIV, SJT.
    Would you believe there's a gold stock in the list above?
  • T
    Terry
    Steven, did you buy monthly dividend payer RIV?
  • m
    milo
    Newcastle coal futures, the benchmark for top consuming region Asia, extended their downward momentum towards the $350-per-tonne mark, a level not seen since May, pressured by increased supply prospects. China, the world's largest coal consumer and producer, announced that it would boost domestic production to ensure its energy security in a tight global market. At the same time, it also signaled that it could lift a nearly two-year ban on Australian coal as tensions ease while it seeks to replace shipments from Russia. Still, coal prices are poised to remain elevated amid robust demand and persistent global supply disruptions exacerbated by the war in Eastern Europe. Europe is now turning to seaborne coal from South Africa and even as far away as Australia as it halts imports from Russia. Demand for coal in India, the world's second-biggest coal importer behind China, is expected to rise almost 10% in 2022 as the country's economy expands and electricity use increases.
  • t
    t
    August nat gas price san juan on ONRR is $8.70…even higher than June…meaning Oct distribution might be even more than the August distribution.
  • C
    C
    Closest resistance is 12.64. We have not been able to poke through that this week, but once we do, we should start chipping away at the 13.84 resistance.
    My targets before September distribution announcement is exactly that 13.84 price. If we get through that resistance before the announcement, 14.60 will be the next target to take out before another breakout run.
    This has been a great year for SJT!
  • R
    Roger
    Does anyone have an idea how long the trust will be able to extract nat gas?
    Bullish
  • m
    milo
    Coal crashing pretty hard
  • m
    milo
    US natural gas futures fell almost 3% toward $8.0/MMBtu, on prospects of weakening air-conditioning demand due to less hot weather and after EIA reported a bigger-than-expected gas storage build last week. Data showed US utilities added 41 billion cubic feet of gas to storage during the week ended July 29th, well above expectations of 29 bcf. Also, Freeport LNG, a key export terminal in Texas, reached an agreement with regulators to restart as soon as October. Meanwhile, demand from Europe continues to support prices as the key Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia to Germany is currently running at 20% capacity. Russia has already halted shipments to Demark, Finland, Bulgaria, the Netherlands, and Poland and reduced supplies to Germany for not consenting to its natural gas payments demand in Russian rubles.
  • c
    chris
    Returning to this board is something that should be rethought by one disparaging pseudo-intellectual.
    The information this person provides is useful, but it is buried in muck and available from other sources.
  • J
    Jerry
    EIA storage report was a build of +41 BCF...surveys were between +26 and +29 BCF. Storage down -9.8% from a year ago and -12.1% below the 5 yr. average.
  • S
    Surepick
    Artilce Title: Long Term LNG Contracts Are The Future For Natural Gas Markets
    Key points:
    **In the not-so-distant past, the natural gas spot market was one of the European Union’s great points of pride as it moved towards a future powered by renewables.
    **Russia’s invasion of Ukraine combined with declining investment, long lead times on new projects, and emissions regulations have created a supply crisis.
    **Now, the European Union and other gas importers are coming to terms with the fact that long-term LNG contracts are the only way forward.

    "The convergence of factors resembles a plot for an apocalyptic movie. Indeed, developments in the European gas market have been in many ways apocalyptic: prices have been breaking record after record, energy bills for consumers are rising inexorably as the cost of producing electricity rises with gas prices, and developing nations are being forced into blackouts because Europe is taking every drop of LNG that is available on the spot market.
    Long-term contracts are quietly reclaiming territory from the spot market as the world's newest LNG growth market realizes it will need to secure long-term gas supplies.
    French Engie earlier this year sealed a long-term LNG supply deal with U.S. NextDecade months after it walked out on the contract because the French government had concerns about the emissions footprint of the company's LNG production facility. German utility EnBW signed a similarly long-term LNG supply deal with Venture Global, as Europe's biggest economy urgently seeks to wean itself off Russian gas even if it means doing a U-turn on all its climate priorities."

    "Even those most determined to effect a transition to renewables have had to heed warnings from industrial groups saying that without gas, companies will have to shut down, and the economy will eventually collapse. And they have started working on boosting their countries' energy security through long-term LNG supply contracts that they shunned until just a while ago."

    My input: First of all this does not negate or take away from the short term immediate fundamentals including high current demand for US gas, likelihood of going into a cold winter with historically low gas storage, or the potential for high coal prices exerting upward pressure on gas price as gas replaces coal where applicable and economically feasible. These things are real and I believe are the biggest factors affecting price in the short term. However, there is also a longer term thesis so I will call attention to those factors as well. Europe's need for gas and the Russia/Ukraine war is changing thinking and actions. As a result they are entering into new and longer term agreements for LNG, as additional infrastructure is also built to support LNG imports. As more LNG is diverted to EU there is less for Asia and competition is likely to push Asia and other areas that need LNG to also seek longer term commitments. This demand and agreement to longer term contracts are what is needed to support growth of US LNG production and export.
    US LNG exports are estimated to double from current levels going into the 2026-2028 period. Yeah that's a long way out, but it could be a big factor in linking US gas prices to the much higher global market price....and on a sustainable level.

    Personal thoughts: My investment in SJT is for the current market conditions that should drive gas prices higher and bring in larger royalties. I will reinvest those royalties AND IF conditions continue to indicate sustained gas price to bolster SJT share price, will continue to hold and reinvest royalties while the longer term catalysts have time and opportunity to come to fruition. Hope these thoughts can be helpful to some.

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Long-Term-LNG-Contracts-Are-The-Future-For-Natural-Gas-Markets.html
  • R
    Robert
    I have been researching the drought conditions impacting the Glen Canyon & Hoover Dams lately. With the hydro plants getting less water, they generate less electricity which means natural gas power plants are used more along with other sources of power generation. There is a 10% chance the Glen Canyon Dam may be off line due to a lack of water (https://www.circleofblue.org/2022/world/what-happens-if-glen-canyon-dams-power-shuts-off/). Frankly, I think there is a higher probability.

    I feel bad saying this, but if the drought gets worst. I'm very bullish on natural gas! Thoughts?

    P.S.
    I haven't researched this ad naseum like some of you, but I welcome feedback. I don't invest full time. However, the best investment is your self.
    Lake Powell is drying behind one of the Southwest’s largest hydropower plants.
    Lake Powell is drying behind one of the Southwest’s largest hydropower plants.
    www.circleofblue.org
    Bullish
  • S
    Steven
    I bought more January $12.50 calls. Great price here as we consolidate before the next leg up.
  • c
    chris
    NG rig count up 300% y/y but only 1% w/w, mostly in Texas.
    still not an unusual number of rigs drilling – last year was an anomaly
  • S
    Steven
    SJT consolidating before the next leg up. I am fully expecting it to make a strong move next week so my DRIP shares go through high again ;)
  • a
    allen
    I am just curious if anyone thinks this SJT could ever get back to the 40’s PLUS
  • m
    milo
    US natural gas futures extended losses below the $8/MMBtu mark, pressured by record levels of output as domestic producers have been taking advantage of higher prices. Still, fundamentals in the NYMEX complex continue to be supported by solid domestic and international demand. Prospects of increasing need for cooling amid hotter-than-normal temperatures in the United States and continued robust demand from Europe as Nord Stream pipeline gas flows are down to 20% of capacity have been supporting prices. Russia has already halted shipments to Demark, Finland, Bulgaria, the Netherlands, and Poland and reduced supplies to Germany for not consenting to its natural gas payments demand in Russian rubles.
  • S
    Steven
    Who has a great play in the coal sector? Looking to take advantage of the high coal prices and global demand.
  • J
    Jerry
    EIA reports a build in storage of just 15 BCF. The average 5 year build is 34 BCF. NG in storage -10.8% from last year and -12.5% below the 5 year average.
  • K
    Ken
    Milo von know nothing,
    1)U.S. Coal is NOT "crashing"... and as it relates to SJT, ONLY the price of U.S. Coal matters for the use and pricing of U.S. Nat Gas by electricity generating utilities.
    2) The U.S. price as of August as measured by Central Appalachia Coal (EIA data) was $181.55/ton, which was UP from $177.30 in week prior.
    3) At $181 Central Appalachia Coal was LESS than HALF the the price of Newcastle, at about $385/TON.
    (1 Tonne = 1.1 Tons)
    4) = U.S. Coal can still rise dramatically to close the gap with the world price.
    5) At $181/ton, Central Appalachia coal = close to $8 per mmBtu
    ===============================
    BOTTOM LINE:
    A) In addition to the Btu COST, Coal plants are expensive to operate than Nat Gas plants, and in many states there additional regulatory costs on Coal plants
    B) The RISNG PRICE of U.S. Coal SUPPORTS U.S. Nat Gas at around the $8 level.....
    = When the myopic morons who trade Nat Gas, push it lower than $8, it is a BUY!
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