|Day's Range||297.80 - 298.70|
Malaysian palm oil futures fell for a fourth straight session on Thursday as lower-than-expected exports dragged on prices, with traders worried India will place more curbs on shipments from Malaysia. India, the world's largest edible oil buyer, last week halted Malaysian palm oil imports following a row over comments by Malaysia's prime minister criticising India's religion-based citizenship law and its actions in Kashmir. The benchmark palm oil contract for April delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange edged down 6 ringgit, or 0.2%, to 2,903 ringgit ($713.79) by the midday break.
BEIJING/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Commodity traders and analysts are struggling to map out how China will reach the eye-popping amounts it is committing to buy from the United States under Phase 1 of their trade deal. China has pledged to buy $50 billion more in U.S. energy supplies, and will raise U.S. agriculture purchases by some $32 billion over two years above 2017's $24 billion baseline, according to a source briefed on the deal to be signed on Wednesday. “Either China massively increases imports and reduces current account surplus from the current 1.5% of GDP, or it engages in trade diversion away from current providers of goods which compete with the U.S." said Alicia Garcia Herrero, Chief Economist Asia Pacific at Natixis in Hong Kong.
China will not increase its annual low-tariff import quotas for corn, wheat and rice to accommodate stepped-up purchases of farm goods from the United States, senior agriculture official Han Jun said on Tuesday, according to local media group Caixin. The move could make it harder for Beijing to meet import commitments in a Phase 1 trade deal due to be signed next week. U.S. President Donald Trump said last month the agreement would likely double China's $24 billion in pre-trade war purchases to $40-$50 billion annually.
(Bloomberg) -- It’s time for some 2020 foresight in raw materials. After commodities posted a 10% advance last year, how will crude to coffee fare in the months to come? The first What to Watch of the new year presents an overview of what to expect and it’s a mixed, complex picture that emerges. The list covers oil, gold, copper, iron ore, pork and more.The year’s first full week of trading will be dominated by the Mideast crisis after the American assassination of one of the Iran’s most powerful generals. Crude and gold surged on Monday after President Donald Trump said he was prepared to strike Iran “in a disproportionate manner” if it hits any U.S. target. RBC Capital Markets has warned of “a retaliatory spiral.”Challenging TimesThe complex number-crunching and informed guesswork used to generate year-to-come predictions in the global oil market have been thrown into disarray by the sharp escalation of tensions between Washington and Tehran. Prior to the U.S. killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, investors were focused on whether continued efforts by OPEC and its allies to curb production would be sufficient to counter a global glut supported by rising U.S. shale supply and new output from outside the cartel, including fields in Guyana.With that in mind, analysts had been forecasting WTI at just below $59 a barrel; but on Monday benchmark Brent rallied above $70 as the two sides traded ever harsher rhetoric. Further gains will depend on developments this week, including potential risks to crude shipped via the Strait of Hormuz. Tensions between the U.S and Iran disrupted oil markets last year but the episodes were short-lived; the current standoff is of far greater magnitude.Brighter ProspectsCopper struggled to sustain a rally in 2019 as the trade war spurred destocking of inventories by manufacturers. Now, the outlook is turning brighter with the preliminary truce between Washington and Beijing easing demand concerns for the metal used in everything from automobiles to electronics. Potential output cuts by Chinese smelters also point to tighter supply at a time when stockpiles tracked by the London Metal Exchange are at the lowest in nine months.Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc. and Standard Chartered Plc are all bullish on copper as they predict a rebound in global consumption. Citigroup forecasts China’s demand will expand 2.6% this year, underpinned by gains in grid investment. While prices fell on Friday as the Mideast tensions hurt appetite for risk, they remain above $6,000 a ton.Golden PromiseGold just delivered a stellar year for bulls as the Federal Reserve cut rates, trade tensions hurt growth, central banks beefed up reserves and ETF holdings swelled. The haven’s upward march may not be quite done: Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and UBS Group AG have all said they’re looking for $1,600 an ounce, and RBC Capital is positive too. And those calls were made before the Iranian crisis sent bullion tearing higher.On top of the Middle East tensions, additional underlying positivity toward bullion comes as the Fed signals that rates will almost certainly be on hold right throughout this year, at least until central bank officials have seen a “material reassessment” in their outlook. Among other precious metals, palladium also demands attention as a persistent global deficit looks set to fuel gains far beyond $2,000 an ounce.A Strong BrewBulls in arabica coffee, coming off its best year in five, will be watching developments in Brazil, the top producer and exporter. After 2019’s harvest was marred by irregular weather and poor quality, the country’s green bean stockpiles are set to drop to the lowest in more than five decades, and any signs of more production issues may exacerbate the tight supply scenario.In addition to a forecast world deficit in 2019-2020, technical indicators are strong, with the beans favored by Starbucks Corp. moving above 50- 100- and 200-day moving averages. While traders will be looking for signs of increased output, many growers are still under financial distress, and that may limit resumption of farm investments. Meantime, a further depreciation in the Brazilian real could raise prospects for increased supplies in the years to come.Headed SouthAfter a tumultuous year, iron ore is expected to slide in 2020. The steelmaking material capped the biggest annual gain in three years in 2019 on a shortage triggered by a dam disaster at Brazil’s Vale SA. Prices, which hit as much as $120 a ton in July, ended the year near $90, while shares of miners such as BHP Group rose. Fortescue Metals Group Ltd.’s stock more than doubled.As seaborne supply expands this year from Brazil and Australia, the deficit is seen closing, and there’s a chorus of forecasts for prices to weaken. Top producer Australia sees iron ore averaging $63 a ton, and the material is Morgan Stanley’s least-favored commodity. In China, steel demand is expected to fall as economic growth slows, hurting iron ore consumption.Running a FeverUnprecedented outbreaks of African swine fever upended the pork trade in 2019, and whether the spread continues will be a key driver for meat markets going forward. The fallout lifted global meat prices to a five-year high and sent pork exports from Europe and elsewhere surging. China’s hog population -- the world’s largest -- has collapsed, and traders will be eyeing whether a recovery in herds comes as quickly as some government officials have pledged.Outside of Asia, the market will focus on whether the disease strikes any major pork shippers, risking further trade disruption. The virus has moved nearer to Poland’s border with Germany, a key European producer, and officials are stockpiling fences and training boar-sniffing dogs in a bid to ward off the threat. It also remains to be seen by how much China will boost purchases of U.S. pork after the nations reached an initial trade agreement.All Change!Climate change and how governments, companies and funds respond will shape investment decisions in 2020 as never before. This year, the amount of new wind and solar power generation capacity will cross the 200-gigawatt threshold, boosting the total to about 1,450 gigawatts, BloombergNEF says. To put that in perspective, that’s just shy of 20% of global installed capacity.That shift will see renewables close the gap with natural gas as the biggest potential source of electricity behind coal, though their intermittent nature will leave them lagging behind in terms of actual output. The variability will also increase challenges for grids and traditional utilities to keep all the lights on, while pressuring wholesale power prices on gusty or bright days.Palm ReadingPalm oil was one of the big winners among commodities in the second half of 2019, and there are signals prices will remain well-supported. The most-used vegetable oil ended the year with a 44% gain, the best showing in a decade, lifted by concerns dry weather and haze will curb supplies from top growers Indonesia and Malaysia, as well as prospects for strong biofuel demand.The latest Bloomberg survey showed prices may average 2,400 ringgit ($587) a ton this quarter, compared with 2,248 ringgit over all of 2019. Participants flagged Indonesia as a key factor, with Southeast Asia’s top economy boosting palm’s share in its biofuel blend to 30% from 20%. Still, questions remain on export markets, especially the European Union’s limit on palm oil use.Bulls & BearsU.S. natural gas prices have slumped for two straight weeks, but the sell-off probably isn’t over, according to traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Some 55% of respondents were bearish, the most in more than three months, as mild weather slows the seasonal decline in stockpiles.Soybeans remained in favor with traders and analysts a third week, helped by expectations that the U.S. government will trim crop yields in an upcoming report. Bullish sentiment on gold edged out bearish and neutral views as prices extended a rally fueled by recent dollar weakness and tensions in the Middle East. Terminal subscribers can see other commodity surveys here.For the DiaryClick here for oil marketsClick here for gas marketsClick here for metals marketsClick here for agriculture marketsClick here for the latest DaybreakAnd for the global stage, click here\--With assistance from Luzi Ann Javier, Lynn Thomasson, Krystal Chia, Yoga Rusmana, Rob Verdonck, Nicholas Larkin, Megan Durisin, Marvin G. Perez, Christine Buurma, Joe Richter, Steven Frank, Justina Vasquez and Dylan Griffiths.To contact the reporters on this story: Alex Longley in London at email@example.com;Yvonne Yue Li in New York at firstname.lastname@example.org;Ranjeetha Pakiam in Singapore at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Phoebe Sedgman at firstname.lastname@example.org, Jake Lloyd-Smith, Joe RichterFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
Industrial hemp is the fastest growing crop in US agriculture. The US defines industrial hemp as cannabis sativa plants containing 0.3% or less THC. Then, in 2014, a new farm bill opened up industrial hemp cultivation to state-controlled pilot programs.
China's iron ore futures were the best performing commodity in 2019, more than doubling in value while natural gas ranked as the biggest loser, dropping by more than a quarter. Crude oil, Malaysian palm oil, precious metals, nickel and arabica coffee were among other gainers. Supply disruptions played a role in fuelling gains, ranging from a dam collapse at Vale's iron ore mine in Brazil to crude oil export cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and lower palm oil production in Southeast Asia.
(Bloomberg) -- The trade war, wild weather and angry farmers all generated major headlines in 2019 on corn and soybeans. But thinly traded niche commodities posted the most impressive gains for the year.Rice, vegetable oils and lumber all posted price increases of at least 25%. The reason: Crazy climate conditions were magnified in smaller markets where there’s often less certainty over the supply cushion. Lower trading volumes can also make for exaggerated price moves.Here are some of the little markets that saw large gains:Rice and OatsExcessively wet field conditions hampered U.S. planting and harvesting of rice, soybeans, corn and spring wheat. While crop concerns helped spark annual gains for all those markets, rice’s 28% surge was outsized.As concerns mounted over U.S. supplies, Brazil’s rice output was also hampered. That means there are fewer options for countries that typically source supplies in the western hemisphere.“We have one of the smallest rice crops on record in the western hemisphere,” said Milo Hamilton, president of Austin, Texas-based Firstgrain, a rice-trading advisory company. “The domestic price in Brazil is shooting through the roof.”Oats are on pace to post a fourth straight yearly gain, the longest streak since 2007. The climb was propelled in part by rising demand for oat milk, according to Scott Shiels, grain procurement manager at Grain Millers Canada in Yorkton, Saskatchewan.It’s hard to tell if the gains will last, since relatively better prices may entice farmers to plant more in 2020.“Rice has outperformed soybeans and corn, so that will create some acreage next year and probably some lower prices,” said Jack Scoville, vice president at Chicago brokerage Price Futures Group.Vegetable OilsPrices for cooking oils saw a big boost. The move comes amid the spread of African swine fever in Asia, which is killing off tens of millions of hogs. With a shrinking hog herd, Chinese soybean processors are crushing less to make livestock feed, thereby also reducing supplies of soy oil. The palm-oil market has also been helped by supply concerns and expectations for robust biofuel demand.Soybean oil traded in Chicago is up 27% in 2019, heading for the largest increase since 2010. Palm oil traded in Malaysia jumped about 47%.LumberLumber prices had a bit of a roller-coaster ride in 2019. First, Chicago futures fell as much as 15% to this year’s low of $286.10 per 1,000 board feet in late May. The wet spring caused U.S. housing starts to tumble, while producers in Canada’s British Columbia were struggling to manage supplies.Tides turned when lumber companies finally curbed production, while U.S. housing starts rebounded. Prices are now on pace for an annual gain of 27%.The rally is expected to continue in 2020. The Canadian curtailments will keep supplies tight in North America, said Kevin Mason, managing director of ERA Forest Products Research.“It’s going to be definitely a much stronger market,” Mason said.To contact the reporters on this story: Michael Hirtzer in Chicago at email@example.com;Ashley Robinson in Winnipeg (Non BLP Loc) at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editors responsible for this story: James Attwood at email@example.com, Millie Munshi, Reg GaleFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- China approved a new strain of genetically modified soybeans developed by a U.S. company, a move that could bolster looming trade talks.The variety approved for import is an insect-resistant soybean from Dow AgroSciences LLC, according to a list published by China’s agriculture ministry on Monday. The nation also approved a new type of GMO papaya and renewed permits for 10 crop varieties, including corn and canola.China and the U.S. are gearing up to sign the first phase of a trade deal, with the South China Morning Post reporting Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is set to lead a delegation to Washington on Jan. 4. The countries agreed to speed up the approval process for imports of GMO crops as part of efforts to boost bilateral trade.“The news helps confirm China’s opening of its market to U.S. GMO products and dropping additional non-tariff barriers,”said John Payne, senior futures and options broker at Daniels Trading in Chicago.GMO crops have been a source of tension with the U.S. arguing China’s stance isn’t based on science and has been used as a non-tariff barrier. In 2013, China rejected several cargoes of corn and distillers dried grain from the U.S. due to the presence of a GMO variety that took the Asia nation almost five years to approve, said Darin Friedrichs, a senior analyst at INTL FCStone in China.The papaya strain, which is resistant to some viruses, has been genetically altered by U.S. research institutes. Import permits for 10 strains, developed by companies including BASF SE, Dupont Pioneer and Bayer AG’s Monsanto unit, have been renewed. These varieties, including one strain of corn, four of soy and four of canola, will be permitted for imports until December 2022.China purchases more than 60% of globally traded soybeans, mainly from Brazil and the U.S., and is also the largest importer of canola, especially from Canada. The oilseeds are processed into protein-rich meals to meet demand for livestock feed. The Asian country is the second-largest corn consumer.“All things point to fantastic Chinese demand in the future which should buoy the commodity complex,” Payne of Daniels Trading said.Soybean futures for March delivery rose 1.2% to close $9.525 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on the bullish outlook for a trade deal. That marked the contract’s highest settlement since Oct. 24.To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Niu Shuping in Beijing at firstname.lastname@example.org;Isis Almeida in Chicago at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Millie Munshi at firstname.lastname@example.org, Patrick McKiernanFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- In the agriculture world, news of the partial U.S.-China trade deal has sparked a lot of buzz about soybeans. It turns out, wheat could actually end up being a bigger surprise winner.Speculation is mounting that China will work to fill its wheat-buying quota as part of the detente, a pledge it failed to stick to in the past. While the allotment, set by the World Trade Organization, could be filled by supplies from any country, it still means additional global demand at a time the market is tighter.Purchases of soybeans, meanwhile, are likely to be hampered by a deadly pig disease that’s reducing demand. The oilseed is crushed to make cooking oil and meal, a key ingredient in hog feed.“The potential that China could secure an additional 5 to 6 million tons of world wheat annually is underpinning Chicago Board of Trade wheat,” Chicago-based consultant AgResource Co. said in a report Thursday.Wheat traders expect China will soon release the quota, according to AgResource, and prices are already reacting. On Friday, futures for March delivery rose as much as 2.2% to $5.61 a bushel in Chicago, the highest for a most-active contract since August 2018. Prices settled at $5.5625. Futures traded in Paris reached the highest since June.If Chinese purchases were to reach the quota mark of 9.6-million metric tons, that would represent a big jump in demand. In the six years through 2017, buying has averaged less than 50% of the allotment.“Momentum traders continue to push wheat prices higher, with fundamental support from hopes that the Phase-One trade deal with China will require it to keep the commitments it made to join the World Trade Organization, increasing imports of wheat by 5 to 6 million metric tons per year,” Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at INTL FCStone, said. “We don’t know that to be the case, but such is being rumored -- providing support for the rally in wheat.”China will likely fill its quota with the cheapest wheat in the market. While that’s usually grain from the Black Sea, U.S. supplies have been getting more competitive and international buyers have recently turned to American shipments.In the week ended Dec. 19, American exporters sold 715,000 tons of U.S. wheat. That follows the previous week’s sales of 868,600 tons, which was the most in six years, according to USDA figures, excluding skewed data released after the federal government shutdown earlier this year.Relatively tighter corn supplies in South America and wheat in top shipper Russia have made American grain more competitively priced. Heavy rain in Europe is also making it harder for growers there to plant, with Consultants Strategie Grains expecting the crop to drop by 3.6% in the European Union. In western Australia, wheat yields have been disappointing due to hot and dry weather.China hasn’t purchased significant volumes of American supply since October. But, underscoring U.S. wheat’s competitiveness in world markets, other top Asian importers including Indonesia, Japan, Philippines and Taiwan have snatched up supplies in recent weeks, according to USDA data.While some traders remained skeptical China would import much U.S. wheat, Shanghai JC Intelligence Co., the Asian nation’s most clued-in agricultural consultant and researcher, recently estimated purchases of Americans supplies could reach 5 million tons as part of an effort to buy $40 billion in agricultural products from the U.S. under the partial trade deal. Such buying would vault China to be the biggest importer of U.S. wheat.Corn could also benefit if China moves to fill grain quotas, but to a smaller degree. At 7.2 million tons, the allotment is not only smaller, but the Asian nation has historically done a better job of filling it, meaning it wouldn’t represent a very big increase in demand.“The impact on corn values is far less,” AgResource said.(Updates with analyst comment in seventh paragraph, JCI estimate in 12th.)To contact the reporters on this story: Isis Almeida in Chicago at email@example.com;Michael Hirtzer in Chicago at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Tina Davis at email@example.com, Millie Munshi, Patrick McKiernanFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
A coalition of US farmers traveled to the UN’s COP25 summit in Madrid to make the case for the role that large-scale farming can play in addressing climate change.
The COT report covering the week to December 10 saw hedge funds load up on crude oil following the OPEC+ meeting. Metals were mixed with copper bought ahead of the trade deal announcement while gold and silver were sold. Tightening supplies supported another strong week of coffee and sugar buying.
Investing.com - Gloomy Chinese data ahead of the crucial do-or-die week for the U.S.-China trade deal helped gold prices steady on Monday, despite virtually zero prospects for a Fed rate cut in December.
Investing.com - Markets may have the rest of the week to wait out a possible China-U.S. deal, but weak Chinese exports data are already giving investors an ominous feeling, sending oil prices lower on Monday.
With the OPEC news out of the way, traders will return to monitoring the progress of the U.S.-China trade negotiations and the rising U.S. supply. Some traders are still uncertain about whether the OPEC deal will be enough to trim the global supply enough to offset the rising U.S. output and the drop in global demand growth.
The Australian dollar had rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday, and as the jobs never came out of America much stronger than anticipated, there was more of a “risk on” sentiment out there.
Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,473.16 an ounce at 0802 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.3% to $1,478.00. "This week gold continued to march on the higher side and today we can see some profit booking," said Ajay Kedia, director at Kedia Advisory in Mumbai, adding that China's move on Friday was pressuring prices further.
The British pound rallied again during the trading session on Thursday, breaking above the 1.31 level yet again. At this point, there is a lot of bullish pressure underneath and it should be obvious that we are broken out.
The S&P; 500 fell rather hard during the trading session on Monday after a dismal ISM Manufacturing PMI figure came out. That being said though, it’s very likely that we are going to continue to see support underneath.
Soybean futures in the January contract is trading higher by 2 cents at 8.79 a bushel breaking a 7 day losing streak as this market could possibly be experiencing oversold conditions at this time.
Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.1023, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1027 and the main 50% level at 1.1029.
There’s uncertainty over the trade deal at the start of the new week, but this is being offset by China’s solid manufacturing reports. Furthermore, if financial market traders saw a major problem developing, they’d be buying Treasurys, thereby lowering interest rates and making gold a more attractive investment.