|Day's Range||2.1500 - 2.5600|
U.S. markets are posting gains on news that the U.S. and China are "very close" to a trade deal. The reality however, is that while President Donald Trump is not anticipated to impose the menacing new tariffs on China this weekend, he may not have much of a trade deal to show either.
In the most recent FOMC meeting announcement today, the Federal Reserve held interest rates constant following its two-day meeting this week, and implied that no action is likely next year amid persistently low inflation and solid growth. After three rate cuts over the last a year, the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday met widely held expectations and kept the funds rate in a target range of 1.5%-1.75%. In its statement discusses the reasons for the decision, the committee indicated that monetary policy is likely to remain steady for a period of time, though officials will continue to monitor conditions as they develop, typical language used in previous announcements.
Nobody wants to miss out on a bull market move higher, but investors simultaneously hesitate from fear, seeing how the move has already traveled so far without them. As a result, they wait on the sidelines until suddenly the pain of missing out is overcome by to greed, causing investors to jump in with both feet, often at the top.
The bullish trends in the S&P 500 index will likely continue heading into the New Year powered by the Fed's accommodative interest-rate policy and a resilient domestic economy.
In the spring of 2010, when the stock market was picking up the pieces after the Great Recession, one 29-year-old with a law degree and a penchant for flipping stocks was busy licking his wounds from one bad trade after another.
The current bull market, which began on March 9, 2009, has garnered an impressive 468% gain for the S&P 500 through the first day of November, making this record-long bull run also the best-performing market since World War II, according to The Leuthold Group. The S&P 500, which barely marked a record closing high on Wednesday, has climbed 471% in this epic run. Looking back at markets historically, there was another bull market that generated a 454% gain for the S&P 500.
After struggling to reach new highs once again Wednesday, markets are pulling back some Thursday morning, amidst impeachment hearings and fallout from the Fed, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies before the US house again today. Hoping stocks will continue their ascension through 2020 and beyond, President Donald Trump has long been critical of the Fed and its approach to monetary policy, stating at The Economic Club Of New York on Tuesday, “If we had a Fed that worked with us, we could have added another 25% to those numbers,” referring to potential gains to major stock benchmarks. Powell emphasized that one factor which could damage the economy is the ongoing trade war with China.
The S&P 500 has rallied to fresh all-time highs today on the back of a new streaming service release from Disney, earnings data, and trade optimism. According to technical research strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the S&P 500 could have the potential to climb as much as an additional 25%, rocketing higher to 3,850, if stocks stage the same type of breakout they had after the last two similar market downturns. “Last week’s push above SPX 3,063 is an uncomfortable breakout for many who viewed the SPX pattern as bearish,” the strategists wrote, but added that the same was true of breakouts in late 2016 and early 2013.
In the continued drama that is the trade war, President Donald Trump said Friday he has not agreed to scrap tariffs on Chinese goods, as was claimed yesterday, dashing dreams about a coming resolution to the protracted trade conflict. On Thursday night, Trump trade advisor Peter Navarro also denied the reports. Investors who were rejoicing the possible end to the trade war are now more cautionary, as the roller-coaster headlines continue to affect the markets.
The bullish trend seems more likely this year with positive momentum built up in the space. This will result in huge demand for leveraged ETFs as investors seek to register big gains in a short span.
Billionaire investor and notorious trader Paul Tudor Jones sees the S&P 500 tanking by as much as 25% if Sen. Elizabeth Warren defeats President Trump in the 2020 election, but anticipates another 15% upside for the market if President Donald Trump wins reelection. Jones explained on Tuesday that an internal poll at his investment firm uncovered that employees believe the S&P 500 could plummet to 2,250 if Warren wins the election. Related: Would A Democratic President Be Bad For Markets?
While President Trump has affected markets with tweets and posturing, is it possible a Democratic presidential nominee like Elizabeth Warren could alter it herself in the future? Warren has made it no secret she is not the biggest fan of Wall Street and big business, claiming recently in Iowa, “Our democracy has been hijacked by the rich and the powerful.” Although it did not have an incredibly wide viewing reception, a video clip Warren's office produced was released in mid-July with the tagline “Stop Wall Street looting,” now has Blackstone and other private equity firms rattled. Some finance executives who chose to remain anonymous recently told Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer they are currently refraining from donating to Democrats running for Senate in 2020 due to their concerns Sen. Elizabeth Warren will become a favorite in the race for the party’s presidential nomination, according to people familiar with the conversations.
After a meteoric rise Wednesday following the FOMC meeting announcement and subsequent press conference with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, U.S. stocks reversed all the gains from yesterday, to trade back below Thursday's range amid Impeachment and China trade deal woes. As anticipated, the Federal Reserve cut rates Wednesday by 25 points to a range of 1.5% to 1.75%, as part of what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has characterized this year as a “midcycle adjustment” in a maturing economic expansion. The FOMC statement seemed generally positive and noted that, “Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate," with stocks climbing rapidly higher and closing at fresh all-time highs, which continued in overnight trading.
With expectations of easier monetary policy and further progress in trade negotiations the S&P 500 once again reached a new record Tuesday. While earnings week is a key dynamic in the current trading environment, ...
The S&P 500 broke above its last major high set over the summer, hitting a record high of nearly 3043 on Monday, as investors were encouraged by robust earnings and what appears to be progress on U.S.-China trade. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to trade above the 3,027.98 record set on July 26. The S&P just hit an ALL TIME HIGH.
This article was originally published on ETFTrends.com. With the constant back-and-forth of markets this year due to fluctuating news headlines, a protracted trade war, rampant presidential tweeting, and the prospect of further rate cuts by the Fed, investors are speculating as to whether we are due for a recession or not, as this bull market continues to run long. “This inverted yield curve scare looked frightening at first, but nothing dramatic has happened. The bigger uncertainty of course is these impeachment hearings, and if he survives that he might contribute for some time in boosting the market,” said Yale economist Robert Shiller on CNBC.
New evidence has been mounting that the Federal Reserve could soon take a break in its latest rate-cutting cycle, and, depending on economic data and developments in trade talks, that could happen at, or more likely, after the Oct. 29-30 meeting, say experts. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, who had championed the last two rate cuts, said this week he foresaw no future cuts this year, though he’s open to one if economic data worsen. Meanwhile, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said he’s “agnostic” on future rate cuts, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, said in a speech last week, that decisions are being made as needed, appearing disinterested on future actions.
This article was originally published on ETFTrends.com. With earnings season off to a strong start and markets moving up handily once again this week, stocks are now up nearly 20% this year, close to all-time highs, yet earnings growth is expected to be insignificant. “In any given year we can have these divergences take place but usually not to this degree," said Matt Maley of Miller Tabak on CNBC. Earnings went down, and the stock market was flat.
U.S. markets rallied fiercely last week after President Donald Trump tweeted that "good things" were happening, and that the U.S. had come to a “very substantial phase one deal” with China in the high-stakes trade negotiations between the two economic superpowers, last Friday. “Phase two will start almost immediately” after the first phase is signed, Trump said in the Oval Office alongside Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. Let’s think of this not as phase 1 but phase 0.5, because the US thinks they’ve made an agreement but China doesn’t necessarily believe the same.
The latest example of this vacillation occurred this week, when stocks rallied on Thursday after President Donald Trump said he will meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He on Friday, raising hope the two countries could make progress on the trade front, after tanking overnight when the South China Morning Post reported Wednesday night the U.S. and China made no progress in deputy-level trade talks this week. In a tweet, Trump said: “Big day of negotiations with China.
U.S. stocks were hit hard Tuesday and further brutalized today, after U.S. manufacturers posted the biggest contraction in September since the end of the 2007-2009 recession, reflecting a slowdown in the U.S. and global economies that is further amplified by a protracted trade war with China. The Institute for Supply Management released data showings its manufacturing index slumped to 47.8% last month from 49.1%, marking it the lowest level since June 2009, when the so-called “Great Recession” ended. “We have now tariffed our way into a manufacturing recession in the U.S. and globally,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, said on Tuesday.