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U.S. stocks were mixed and crude oil prices plunged following a report that Saudi Arabia was on track to restore 70% of the oil production lost during a weekend attack on key facilities in the country’s oil infrastructure.
Much of that advance has been led by momentum stocks, or stocks that investors have been bidding upwards precisely because they already were rising, thereby creating a self-reinforcing trend. Now, Morgan Stanley says these momentum stocks are stalling, which the firm says is an ominous warning sign of both a recession and major stock market declines ahead. "The last two times we've experienced a momentum breakdown this severe, it preceded or coincided with an economic recession," warns the U.S. equity strategy team at Morgan Stanley headed by Mike Wilson.
U.S. markets and stock ETFs retreated on a spike in risk-off sentiment, following the weekend attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities that sent crude price surging, but strength in the energy sector helped offset some of the broader selling.
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Volatility is elevated as the S&P 500 stalls near historic highs, while the software industry is oddly not participating in the recent rebound.
U.S. markets and stock exchange traded funds meandered on Friday as optimism over progress in the trade war with China was pared down by lingering uncertainty over global growth. On Friday, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) rose 0.2% and SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) was flat. Global equities have been pushing higher this week on hopes of easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, along with expectations of looser monetary policies from global central banks, recovering some of the lost ground experienced over a volatile August.
The federal budget deficit has topped $1 trillion for the first time in seven years, the Treasury Department said. Expenses in August eclipsed incoming revenue by $214 billion this month, taking the government’s total shortfall to just under $1.07 trillion, the government reported Thursday. The growing deficit has also pushed up the national debt, the amount owed by the country to creditors to cover the difference between revenue and expenses.
Debt owed by governments, businesses, and households has shot up by almost 50% worldwide since the financial crisis, far outpacing economic growth.