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The U.S. economy actually lost jobs on Friday, after a decade of gains, and the employment situation will likely only get bleaker as the nation remains closed for business to stem the spread of the deadly new coronavirus.
Executive Summary: Two weeks ago we predicted that the U.S. death toll from COVID-19 would reach 20,000 by April 15th. The following article explains why. Article: I am furious and frustrated. Once the greatest country on the face of this planet, the United States is going hat in hand to China, begging for a […]
As analysts and economists take stock of the degree of damage the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to inflict on the economy, an economist at BofA Securities said the ensuing recession is poised to "take the crown."Record Recession Forecasted The recession resulting from the pandemic is likely to be deeper and more prolonged, not just in the U.S. but globally as well, BofA's U.S. economist Michelle Meyer said in a Thursday note.The economist estimates GDP will contract for three consecutive quarters until the third quarter. The U.S. economy is expected to shrink 7% at a quarter-over-quarter, seasonally adjusted annual rate in the first quarter, 30% in the second quarter and 1% in the third quarter, she said. Benzinga is covering every angle of how the coronavirus affects the financial world. For daily updates, sign up for our coronavirus newsletter.How Various Components of GDP Could Fare The first quarter will be hurt by a severe decline in consumer spending in the second half of March, enough to push the quarter into contraction, Meyer said. The weakness in consumer spending is likely to broaden in April, with Meyer estimating a 40% drop in spending in the second quarter. The economist also said the sharp rise in unemployment insurance claims conjures up the scenario of income loss and impairment of consumer spending.The weakness will further be exacerbated by a decline in business investment, according to BofA. While consumer spending is projected to limp back to normalcy and turn positive in the third quarter as the economy opens up, there is likely to be further contraction in business and residential investment, Meyer said.There will be additional inventory contraction amid impaired supply chains and frictions in production, she said. Meyers said she expects the unemployment rate to peak at 15.6%."We forecast the cumulative decline in GDP to be 10.4% and this will be the deepest recession on record, nearly five times more severe than the post-war average." Light At the End of Tunnel BofA does see a recovery on the other side. After solving the public health crisis and stopping the spread of the pandemic, the next step is to slowly open the economy, with businesses returning and people going back to work, Meyer said. This will unleash pent-up demand, leading to a 30% pop in fourth-quarter GDP, she said. "Nonetheless, we think this will be a slow recovery overall as many workers will be displaced and businesses adapt to a period of lost revenue." Related Links:Will The COVID-19 Economic Shutdown Teach Americans To Save More Money? Jobless Claims And The Likely Collapse Of Volumes - FreightWaves NOW See more from Benzinga * Companies Suspend Dividends, Buybacks As Pandemic Weakens Market * From Record Highs To Bear Market In 21 Days: BofA Says To Avoid Panic Selling, Focus On Quality Stocks * Coronavirus Threat To Global Growth Is 'Real' And Shouldn't Be Ignored, Analysts Say(C) 2020 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
New U.S. jobless claims for the week ending March 27 totaled a whopping 6.648 million versus a 3.5-million estimate, according to numbers reported Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.The initial jobless claims in the week ending March 20 reached 3.283 million.It is estimated that unemployment claims are likely to remain high in the coming weeks, as many states haven't fully processed all unemployment-benefit applications due to the deluge, reports The Wall Street Journal.Benzinga is covering every angle of how the coronavirus affects the financial world. For daily updates, sign up for our coronavirus newsletter.Constance Hunter, chief economist at KPMG LLP, told the Journal that she estimates 20 million jobs will be lost as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. "We didn't see this in the global financial crisis. We didn't see this in the Great Depression. There's been a total decimation of consumption."Last week, President Donald Trump signed a $2-trillion stimulus package into law. Related Link:New US Jobless Claims Hit Record 3.28M As Coronavirus Strikes EconomySee more from Benzinga * New US Jobless Claims Hit Record 3.28M As Coronavirus Strikes Economy * Oil Claws Its Way Back Up, Analyst Projects Startling Q2 Surplus * IRS Tax Deadline Extended To July 15, Mnuchin Says(C) 2020 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Stocks started the second quarter off on the wrong foot, tumbling lower on the day. That said, here's a look at a few top stock trades now. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow No. 1: Microsoft (MSFT) Click to Enlarge Source: Chart courtesy of StockCharts.comMicrosoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), the largest holding in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY), is starting to roll over. Shares failed to hold up over the 100-day moving average and were swiftly rejected by the 50-day moving average.Let's see how the stock does on a slightly deeper decline, down to the $150 mark and the 200-day moving average. If this zone fails to buoy the stock, more downside could be in a store.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsI would love to see another test of $140 to see how Microsoft holds up. If $140 steps in as support, MSFT should avoid a retest of the lows near $135. Below both levels puts $130 in play. A pullback to prior resistance that holds as support is not only healthy price action, but would be a constructive development as investors get a higher low to work with.On the upside, though, see if the stock can reclaim its 100-day moving average. Above that, and the 50-day moving average is in play. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow No. 2: S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Click to Enlarge Source: Chart courtesy of StockCharts.comSpeaking of the SPY ETF, let's take a closer look at the stock. Last night I flagged a very similar chart, but also highlighted that SPY was failing at its 200-week moving average. On the daily chart above, you can see that the 20-day moving average acted as resistance, as did the 38.2% retracement for the 2020 decline (which is also the 52-week range). Shares are now struggling to hold the less-important 23.6% retracement. Below that mark and the Q4 2018 lows near $233.75 are in play. If those hold, bulls may view it as a buy-the-dip opportunity with a higher low in place. If it fails to hold, it puts the 2020 lows in play just below $220. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow No. 3: AT&T (T) Click to Enlarge Source: Chart courtesy of StockCharts.comAt the start of the selloff, AT&T (NYSE:T) was holding up okay. But the selling pressure got to this stock, too -- which has since fallen below $30. It's had trouble reclaiming this mark, as it moves down into the upper $20s. Last week, the $26 mark propelled shares higher, but a retest of that low isn't out of the question right now. If that level breaks, the $25 mark is in play, which as has been multi-year support for some time now. On the upside, however, let's see if AT&T can reclaim $31. Above that puts its 100-week and 200-week moving averages in play between $32 and $32.50. Above that and the mid-$30s are on the table. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow No. 4: Peleton (PTON) Click to Enlarge Source: Chart courtesy of StockCharts.comThere was no love for Peloton (NASDAQ:PTON) when the company went public in September. Up almost 10% on Wednesday and after surging from its lows near $18 in March, PTON is clearly back in favor. The stock is approaching its $29 IPO price, which has been resistance over the past few months. Above this mark and downtrend resistance currently near $31.50 is in play. Above that and $34 is possible. On a pullback, see if Peloton can find support between $24 and $25. Below puts $21 on the table. Below that and the March lows are in play, where buyers previously stepped in over several sessions. Bret Kenwell is the manager and author of Future Blue Chips and is on Twitter @BretKenwell. As of this writing, Bret Kenwell is long T. More From InvestorPlace * 25 Stocks You Should Sell Immediately * 1 Under-the-Radar 5G Stock to Buy Now * This Stock Picker's Latest Video Just Went Viral * The 1 Stock All Retirees Must Own The post 4 Top Stock Trades for Thursday: MSFT, AT&T, PTON, SPY appeared first on InvestorPlace.
President Donald Trump signed a $2-trillion stimulus package last week that will send most Americans up to $1,200 in direct payment as a lifeline during the coronavirus (COVID-19) economic shutdown.Americans in financial need now have plenty of questions about the stimulus checks and how to maximize the amount of money they receive.About The Stimulus The biggest question on most Americans' minds is when will they receive their money. The Treasury Department said all Americans with direct deposit information on file with the IRS should receive their payments within three weeks. The government is also reportedly working on a web-based portal to allow individuals to provide banking information for direct deposits.Those who have not provided direct deposit information will receive stimulus checks in the mail. The Treasury has historically taken between six and eight weeks to mail checks, but officials expect the stimulus check process will be expedited.At this point, Americans in need of financial assistance should ensure they are doing what they can to maximize their payout. The stimulus payouts are $1,200 for an individual with $75,000 or less in adjusted gross income or $2,400 for married couples with $150,000 or less in adjusted gross income. Americans also get an additional $500 for each child dependent.Benzinga is covering every angle of how the coronavirus affects the financial world. For daily updates, sign up for our coronavirus newsletter.Maximizing Your Stimulus The individual stimulus amount phases out incrementally for individuals earning more than $75,000 and couples earning more than $150,000. The IRS is using the most current tax returns available to determine adjusted gross income.For Americans who have already filed 2019 returns, 2019 returns will be used. For all others, 2018 tax returns will be used.Rebecca McElroy, tax partner at Maddox, Thomson & Associates in Houston, told Benzinga that Americans should consider the implications that filing their 2019 tax returns early could have on their stimulus payments."Individuals who wouldn't qualify for relief based on 2018 adjusted gross income should file their 2019 returns as soon as possible," McElroy told Benzinga.At the same time, McElroy said certain individuals who earned more than $75,000 and couples who earned more than $150,000 in adjusted gross income in 2019 may benefit from delaying their 2019 filing until the stimulus payments go out."If 2019 adjusted gross income is anticipated to exceed these thresholds but an individual or married couple would otherwise qualify for full payment based on 2018 income, defer filing the 2019 return until the extended July 15th due date," she said.Major Financial Changes? As a general rule of thumb, McElroy told Benzinga that any American who experienced a major financial change in 2018 or 2019 should consider reaching out to a tax professional.For example, McElroy was able to help a single mother of two children that was divorced in 2019 file her 2019 tax return early, putting her in line for a large stimulus check that she wouldn't have otherwise received.In 2018, the woman filed jointly with her husband, and the couple earned a combined $235,000 in income, making her ineligible for a stimulus payment."Her income as a single filer in 2019 was $48,000 and she was eligible to claim both children under the age of 10 as dependents for 2019. I told her, 'let's get your 2019 return filed right away!' In doing so, she will now receive $3,400 as opposed to zero." Benzinga's Take The stimulus package was created and will be enacted rapidly in a chaotic environment. In order to maximize your potential payout and minimize the possibility of mistakes, Americans should understand 2019 tax filing implications, add or verify that the IRS has direct deposit information on file and confirm that the amount of stimulus is correct based on personal income and family status.Do you agree with this take? Email firstname.lastname@example.org with your thoughts.Related Links:Will The COVID-19 Economic Shutdown Teach Americans To Save More Money? 10 Best Ways To Use Your ,200 Stimulus CheckSee more from Benzinga * Will The COVID-19 Economic Shutdown Teach Americans To Save More Money? * Markets End Historically Volatile Week On Uneven Note * Why Stock Exchange Floor Closings Could Be Creating End-Of-Day Volatility(C) 2020 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
While the full impact of COVID-19 on the global economy is still unknowable, we are gaining perspective on its economic impact, and thus its investment implications Continue reading...
President Donald Trump prepares Americans for more difficult days ahead as the coronavirus (COVID-19) death toll continues to escalate.What Happened At the daily White House coronavirus briefing, Trump described himself as a "cheerleader for our country" but struck a somber note speaking about possible fatalities. White House officials are predicting the death toll from COVID-19 could range from 100,000-240,000 Americans.Recognizing the devastating effect of COVID-19, Trump said, "When you look at night, the kind of death that has been caused by this invisible enemy, it's incredible."Benzinga is covering every angle of how the coronavirus affects the financial world. For daily updates, sign up for our coronavirus newsletter.Why It Matters According to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, as of Wednesday, the United States had 189,624 COVID-19 cases, which is more than any other country in the world. The hardest-hit state has been New York. New York City alone has seen 43,119 cases and more than 1,096 deaths.The outbreak in New York may not peak for three weeks, according to the state's Governor Andrew Cuomo.Nationally, the fatalities are set to peak over the next two weeks, according to Dr. Deborah Birx, coordinator for the White House coronavirus task force and Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, as reported by CNBC.See more from Benzinga * Trump Signs Coronavirus Relief Bill, ECB Injects 1B In Liquidity, Japan Considers Cash Payouts * Health Care Dominates Sanders-Biden Debate, Promises Of Female Vice President Made * US Stocks, Dollar Decline After Trump Announces Suspension Of Travel From Europe(C) 2020 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Stocks ended Tuesday’s session lower, closing out the worst quarter for the Dow since 1987 and its first three-month start to the year on record.
This represents some good news, not only for the global economy but for those of us elsewhere in the world still awaiting peak coronavirus contagion and an economic recovery beyond it.
We don’t know when this bear market will end. But when it does, Fisher Investments believes the rebound will likely be much like the past: swift, and surprising to most. Continue reading...
Stocks rose Monday, extending last week’s bounce as market participants continued tracking the spread of the coronavirus and the daily life disruptions it has invoked around the world. U.S. Treasury yields tumbled further, and Brent crude oil prices dropped to the lowest level in 17 years.