|Day's Range||17.18 - 18.61|
‘It would be unusual and unprecedented for a bear market or recession to only last 30 or 45 days. It just doesn't happen,’ said Darrell Cronk, president of the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
Market technicians can often predict turning points with amazing accuracy in these mixed environments, relying on the old adage that "gaps get filled." While not true 100% of the time, price action in all liquid securities tends to magnetize toward unfilled gaps in both directions. Edward and Magee identified three types of gaps in their 1948 classic “The Technical Analysis of Stock Trends”.
Tony Dwyer of Canaccord Genuity said on CNBC's "Fast Money" that he expects the market to retest the lows, despite the sharp move higher on Monday. He explained that there are three phases of the crash environment, a panic phase, a multi-week relief rally phase and the retest of lows.Dwyer thinks we're in the second phase now and he expects the market to trade lower and retest its lows. He used RSI index to find similarities with historical events. Whenever the market crashed and the index reached 22 as it did in March, a relief rally followed, said Dwyer. After the rally, S&P 500 retested the lows in median 28 days later. Half the time it broke the low marginally and in other three times it came within 4% of the low.See more from Benzinga * Traders See JPMorgan As The Best Stock In The Sector * BlackRock Is Bullish On Asia Ex-Japan * Cramer Gives His Opinion Alteryx, Johnson & Johnson And More(C) 2020 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
An unofficial unemployment reading, if taken right now, would "probably" come in at 12% to 13%, ex-Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen said Monday on CNBC.Unemployment Trending Higher If unemployment is standing at 12% to 13% right now this figure would only worsen over the coming days, Yellen said. The toll continues to rise by the day and how much worse the jobs market will get is dependent on how quickly America can get back to business.Other indicators to gauge the strength of the economy, such as credit card data, signal a "dramatic" decline in economic activity. Credit card data alone point to a second quarter GDP decline of 30% although Yellen said she has "seen far higher numbers" off other data.Related Link: Bernanke On How Coronavirus Differs From The 2008 Economic CrisisWhat A Recovery Looks Like A "V-shape" economic recovery is the "best case scenario" and current expectation calls for a return towards work as usual by the summer months, Yellen said. While a quick and swift economic recovery is possible, it's also possible the recovery will "look worse.""It really depends on my mind on just how much damage is done during the time that the economy is shut down in the way it is now," Yellen said.Banking System Compared to the prior economic crisis, the banking system as a whole is flush with superior liquidity and capitalized. But Yellen said she is "in favor" of asking banks to suspend dividends and stock buybacks. Banks tend to be reluctant to cut back on shareholder returns as doing so may signal they are "vulnerable" to market headwinds.The relevant regulatory authorities could ask the banks to suspend dividends and buybacks ahead of an era of economic uncertainty. This would represent a "different situation" as such a request would help banks meet the credit needs of the economy.What More Can The Fed Do The Federal Reserve has acted quickly and aggressively to support the economy and "pulled out all the stops," she said. The recent passing of the CARES act now implies the government has all the resources and tools to offer "massive support" to keep credit flowing.Janet Yellen speaks during an appearance at the University of Michigan. Photo by Dustin Blitchok.See more from Benzinga * Leon Cooperman, Others Weigh In On Whether The Stock Market Has Hit Bottom * Bernanke On How Coronavirus Differs From The 2008 Economic Crisis * BTIG's Emanuel Says Stocks Risk 1987's 40% Downside Scenario If Senate Doesn't Act(C) 2020 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
When you think of Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.B) equity portfolio, most of which was selected by Chairman and CEO Warren Buffett, you very well might think of storied blue-chip stocks such as American Express (AXP), Coca-Cola (KO), and more recently, Apple (AAPL).Oh, those are still major components in the Berkshire portfolio. But a deeper dive into Warren Buffett's stocks reveals a more complicated picture - and a few more surprising holdings.Berkshire Hathaway held positions in 49 separate companies (across 52 different stocks thanks to firms with multiple share classes) as of the end of 2019, up from 46 during the third quarter. That's according to its most recent 13F regulatory filing, submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission on Feb. 14. But the portfolio of "Buffett stocks" isn't as diversified as the number might suggest. Some are new positions so small they equate to a pinky toe in the water. Other holdings are immaterial leftovers from earlier bets that the Oracle of Omaha has mostly exited, just not completely.Nonetheless, Berkshire Hathaway's equity portfolio remains one of the best ways to identify which stocks legendary investor Warren Buffett feels are worth his time and attention - for the most part. Just remember: A few of these Buffett stocks were actually picked by portfolio managers Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, who many believe are the top candidates to succeed "Uncle Warren" whenever he decides to step down.Here, we examine each and every holding to give investors a better understanding of the entire Berkshire Hathaway portfolio. SEE ALSO: 64 Dividend Stocks You Can Count On in 2020
What Are 4 Ways To Trade The VIX?The one constant on the stock markets is change. Said differently, volatility is a constant companion to investors. Ever since the VIX Index was introduced, with futures and options following later, investors have had the option to trade this measurement of investor sentiment regarding future volatility.
The U.S. economy actually lost jobs on Friday, after a decade of gains, and the employment situation will likely only get bleaker as the nation remains closed for business to stem the spread of the deadly new coronavirus.
Stocks ended Friday’s session and the week lower after market participants digested mounting signals of economic devastation amid the still-escalating coronavirus pandemic.
The coronavirus continues to sweep across the world. It's hitting Europe and the U.S. hard after the outbreak began in China. Despite the hellish reality of Covid-19, we're seeing individual companies step up, like Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD). As a result, GILD stock is up 16.3% year-to-date and 9% over the past month.Some investors may look at that and say, "so what?"But compare that to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY), which is down 22% and 15.3% in the same time frame and you can understand why Gilead has stood out. It's also why it has the potential to shine even brighter in the coming weeks and months.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips Gilead vs. Covid-19The virus is bringing out the best in many American companies. Ford (NYSE:F), General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) are producing ventilators. Gap (NYSE:GPS), Ralph Lauren (NYSE:RL) and others are producing scrubs, gowns and other supplies. Breweries are making hand sanitizer. We're stepping up. And so is biotech. * 10 Stocks to Buy Whose Companies We Can't Live Without Gilead is working on a Covid-19 treatment with a drug called remdesivir. On March 23, the FDA granted remdesivir "orphan status." That designation would, among other things, give it exclusivity rights. However, just a few days later Gilead filed with the FDA to remove that status. Click to Enlarge Source: Chart courtesy of Statista, Source from WHO The company said it could maintain an "expedited timeline" without the status, and that the designation is meant to apply for infections impacting less than 200,000 Americans. With more than 215,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.S. and growing rapidly, it's clear the number will be far higher.Gilead CEO Daniel O'Day recently said that remdesivir is "a medicine we had been studying for many years as part of our extensive research in antivirals … Multiple studies are ongoing, and we are on track to have initial data in the coming weeks."On April 1, the company initiated two Phase 3 trials for remdesivir for use in patients with moderate to severe Covid-19.This is all moving along very quickly. If Gilead sees promising results, not only is that huge for Gilead but it's huge for the world. We need some sort of positive catalyst here. Not just for the stock market, but for humanity. People are growing tired of being on lockdown orders and anxiety is creeping higher for many out of work.If Gilead's remdesivir works, it could be a game changer. Sizing Up GILD Stock Click to Enlarge Source: Chart courtesy of StockCharts.comA glance at the chart above highlights what life has been like for long-term investors in Gilead. Simply put, the stock has been a painful one to own. Shares embarked on a brutal decline from a high north of $100 in 2015 to a low near $57.50 in 2017. It has since been trying to carve out a bottom.Shares moved slowly but constructively higher in 2019, leading to a breakout in 2020. Of course, that's on the back of the company's remdesivir hopes, putting Gilead in a somewhat binary situation.Binary situations are generally unattractive from an investment perspective, particularly when they center around a treatment being accepted or rejected. As it stands though, investors may be safe buying a pullback into the $65 to $70 area. As long as GILD stays above $65, its technicals are in good shape.On the upside, look for a rally back up to resistance between $77.50 to $80. A breakout over $80 puts the recent highs near $86 on the table.While Gilead shares has been hammered over the years, its fundamentals have deteriorated a bit over that time as well. But -- and this is a big but -- Gilead Sciences is not your typical fly-by-night binary biotech play. It's a low valuation, cash-rich healthcare titan.The company boasts $24.3 billion in cash -- $19.4 billion including its recent acquisition of Forty Seven (NASDAQ:FTSV). Trailing free cash flow is north of $8.3 billion, with revenue and net income of $22.4 billion and $5.4 billion, respectively. Gilead may not be in its prime, but it's a very profitable machine.Investors could do worse than pay 11.3 times this year's earnings for a company like Gilead, with the upside kicker being remdesivir.Matthew McCall left Wall Street to actually help investors -- by getting them into the world's biggest, most revolutionary trends BEFORE anyone else. The power of being "first" gave Matt's readers the chance to bank +2,438% in Stamps.com (STMP), +1,523% in Ulta Beauty (ULTA) and +1,044% in Tesla (TSLA), just to name a few. Click here to see what Matt has up his sleeve now. Matt does not directly own the aforementioned securities. More From InvestorPlace * 25 Stocks You Should Sell Immediately * 1 Under-the-Radar 5G Stock to Buy Now * This Stock Picker's Latest Video Just Went Viral * The 1 Stock All Retirees Must Own The post Gilead Sciencesa Coronavirus Treatment Has Big-Time Potential appeared first on InvestorPlace.
Looking for any sign of normalcy during these tumultuous times? Any sign at all?Source: Shutterstock Well, you may be glad to know that during this moment of incredible uncertainty on Wall Street, the stock market is actually following some fairly familiar patterns.We all know that the U.S. economy fluctuates between periods of expansion and contraction. Sometimes those fluctuations last a few years, and sometimes they last a little longer.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsWe've all been spoiled for the past decade because the expansionary period -- and the related bull market -- lasted for so long.However, all expansions eventually come to an end, and it looks like we're at the end of the most recent expansion.The good news is that all contractions also eventually come to an end, so we can all be on the lookout for it. Hopefully it's not too far around the bend.So, what are we seeing now in the stock market, and what should everybody be looking for in the future to identify the bullish turn? Sector Rotation in the S&P 500Historically -- remember, we've seen market corrections before -- when the stock market pulls back, defensive sectors, like healthcare, consumer staples and utilities, tend to outperform.Similarly, when the stock market starts to bottom out, more aggressive sectors, like financials, consumer discretionary and technology, tend to outperform.The business cycle chart in Fig. 1 illustrates the relationship between the stages of the cycle -- expansion and contraction in the economy -- and the stock market sectors that tend to outperform during each stage of the cycle.Source: Chart by InvestorPlace Fig. 1 -- Sector Rotation during the Business CycleSo, what's happening now?Since the S&P 500 hit its peak on Feb. 19, every sector in the market has experienced a double-digit percentage drop.However, some sectors have outperformed others during the bear-market reversal. Can you guess which ones? Which Sectors Are Outperforming?Let's look at a comparison chart of the S&P 500 and the 10 S&P 500 sectors as represented by the Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These ETFs are tracked by State Street Global Advisors.Here's the breakdown of the performance of each fund in the sector-comparison chart in Fig. 2: * Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLV): -17.2% * Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLP): -17.3% * Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLK): -23% * Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLU): -24.1% * SPDR S&P 500 Fund (NYSEARCA:SPY): -26% * Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLY): -28.1% * Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLB): -28.2% * Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLRE): -29.4% * Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLI): -32.6% * Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLF): -36.2% * Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLE): -49%Source: Chart courtesy of TradingView Fig. 2 -- SPDR Sector ETFs Comparison Chart, Mid-March to AprilAs you can see, three of the top four performing sectors during the past six weeks are healthcare, consumer staples and utilities.This is exactly what we would expect to see.So, why is this good news?It's good news because even though we don't know exactly what is going to happen next in the novel coronavirus pandemic, we can be quite confident that Wall Street is going to behave like it has during past pullbacks.That means we can put the odds in our favor by making trades that are informed by history.It also means we can watch the financial, consumer discretionary and technology sectors for signs of a turnaround in the future and be confident in what we're seeing. The Bottom LineWe haven't seen the end of the volatility on Wall Street. Every new revision in the United States' potential Covid-19 death toll will bring swings in the stock market.However, we can navigate these choppy waters. We've got a few historical lighthouses on the shore serving as markers that we can watch to avoid the rocks.John Jagerson & Wade Hansen are just two guys with a passion for helping investors gain confidence -- and make bigger profits with options. In just 15 months, John & Wade achieved an amazing feat: 100 straight winners -- making money on every single trade. If that sounds like a good strategy, go here to find out how they did it. John & Wade do not own the aforementioned securities. More From InvestorPlace * 25 Stocks You Should Sell Immediately * 1 Under-the-Radar 5G Stock to Buy Now * This Stock Picker's Latest Video Just Went Viral * The 1 Stock All Retirees Must Own The post Finding Predictability Amid the Uncertainty on Wall Street appeared first on InvestorPlace.
Executive Summary: Two weeks ago we predicted that the U.S. death toll from COVID-19 would reach 20,000 by April 15th. The following article explains why. Article: I am furious and frustrated. Once the greatest country on the face of this planet, the United States is going hat in hand to China, begging for a […]
'This surprisingly high level of bullishness supports our own view that we haven't yet seen investor capitulation, echoing what we've seen in other data sets,' writes RBC's head of U.S. equity strategy Lori Calvasina.
As analysts and economists take stock of the degree of damage the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to inflict on the economy, an economist at BofA Securities said the ensuing recession is poised to "take the crown."Record Recession Forecasted The recession resulting from the pandemic is likely to be deeper and more prolonged, not just in the U.S. but globally as well, BofA's U.S. economist Michelle Meyer said in a Thursday note.The economist estimates GDP will contract for three consecutive quarters until the third quarter. The U.S. economy is expected to shrink 7% at a quarter-over-quarter, seasonally adjusted annual rate in the first quarter, 30% in the second quarter and 1% in the third quarter, she said. Benzinga is covering every angle of how the coronavirus affects the financial world. For daily updates, sign up for our coronavirus newsletter.How Various Components of GDP Could Fare The first quarter will be hurt by a severe decline in consumer spending in the second half of March, enough to push the quarter into contraction, Meyer said. The weakness in consumer spending is likely to broaden in April, with Meyer estimating a 40% drop in spending in the second quarter. The economist also said the sharp rise in unemployment insurance claims conjures up the scenario of income loss and impairment of consumer spending.The weakness will further be exacerbated by a decline in business investment, according to BofA. While consumer spending is projected to limp back to normalcy and turn positive in the third quarter as the economy opens up, there is likely to be further contraction in business and residential investment, Meyer said.There will be additional inventory contraction amid impaired supply chains and frictions in production, she said. Meyers said she expects the unemployment rate to peak at 15.6%."We forecast the cumulative decline in GDP to be 10.4% and this will be the deepest recession on record, nearly five times more severe than the post-war average." Light At the End of Tunnel BofA does see a recovery on the other side. After solving the public health crisis and stopping the spread of the pandemic, the next step is to slowly open the economy, with businesses returning and people going back to work, Meyer said. This will unleash pent-up demand, leading to a 30% pop in fourth-quarter GDP, she said. "Nonetheless, we think this will be a slow recovery overall as many workers will be displaced and businesses adapt to a period of lost revenue." Related Links:Will The COVID-19 Economic Shutdown Teach Americans To Save More Money? Jobless Claims And The Likely Collapse Of Volumes - FreightWaves NOW See more from Benzinga * Companies Suspend Dividends, Buybacks As Pandemic Weakens Market * From Record Highs To Bear Market In 21 Days: BofA Says To Avoid Panic Selling, Focus On Quality Stocks * Coronavirus Threat To Global Growth Is 'Real' And Shouldn't Be Ignored, Analysts Say(C) 2020 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Stocks rose Thursday as investors shook off earlier concerns after the U.S. Labor Department’s report on weekly unemployment insurance claims far exceeded expectations.