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Suncor Energy Inc. (SU)

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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27.07-1.14 (-4.04%)
At close: 04:00PM EST
27.06 -0.01 (-0.04%)
After hours: 07:59PM EST
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  • J
    Jason
    What's happening with Suncor now reminds me exactly of what happened with BMO back in August, 2020 - November, 2020. I'm glad I stayed in. So if you're #$%$ off at the way the stock is going, just remember I'm long 2024 calls for Suncor and today was a 13% move for me in the not-nice direction. Oil's staying at $80, a lot of the forecasts are for well over, but $80 is the average forecast for 2022-2027.Suncor's calculations for their present strategy, from spring 2021, are based on $55 WTI.Watch those quarterly earnings boys and girls, hold on tight and hang on to your hats.
  • b
    brian
    Mark Fisher, the famous oil trader said today on CNBC that he does not know when, but oil is heading to $100.
    This trader is considered as one of the top experts in the country on oil trading.
  • T
    The Realist
    I am hearing an announcement of a Special Dividend could be forthcoming on Feb 2nd. If it is anything like CVE's announcement, it could be the first of many such dividends. Suncor is going to have another significant free cash flow quarter which would allow such a material outflow of cash. Such a dividend will bring many shareholders back to the SU story. CEO Little doing the right things to right the SU ship.
  • J
    Jason
    Interestingly Suncor says in their 2021 Q3 MD&A that a $1 move (USD) in Brent -> $240 million (presumably USD) in FFO for the year. So I don't know where these analysts are basing their prices off of, but say it's $70, with $4.07 CAD EPS for the year expected. Now a move to $85 sustained through 2022 and 2023 might up the EPS to say around $5.60 or so. In 2017, 2018, and 2019, SU traded at year end at a P/E of 15.6, so using 15, and an EPS of $5.60, that would be a price of $84 or so. So as frustrated as I am with the stock, that is why I am holding on.
  • J
    Jason
    J.P. Morgan (not Morgan Stanley, same founder, different bank), is expecting $125/bbl oil in Q2 2022 and $150 oil in 2023. It wouldn't necessarily average that but they believe it will touch that.

    SU's FFO (Free funds flow) increases by about $220-$240 million per $1 movement in the price of Brent, so if oil averaged

    $100 this year, and it might, that would add about 3.3 billion in FFO, or about $2.1 a share in FFO, from $85 Brent.
  • T
    The Realist
    Just saw a report on BNN that insiders at SU are STILL buying their shares at current levels while insiders at CNQ have started to sell. Insider transactions can be a real good indicator as to which shares appear to be fully valued at these levels and those that are undervalued and still have material upside to go. Appears that Suncor insiders see real value in Suncor shares at current levels. Are upcoming quarterlies going to surprise the market to the upside? I think so! Suncor's laggard status is about to change!
  • b
    bobby
    Oil showing lot of support and being pushed upward. Wonder if the Ukraine crisis helping it ??. Not much other news for this spike. Demand is kinda steady as world economies still in the covid shadow ar least for the shorter term. For SU the with pre-announcement of lost production for the last quarter is priced in already in my view, not expecting much pull back on the ER date on Feb 2nd. A $1 pull back the current level is the worst case scenario to move up higher from there ! But if there going to be a dividend increase, clear uptrend in sight with production cost per barrel coming down to boost the profit margin !!. Pull back in oil price will be reflected in SU trading price though.
  • D
    DAVE
    Calgary, Alberta--(Newsfile Corp. - January 18, 2022) - Suncor (TSX: SU) (NYSE: SU) today is providing an update on recent incidents and fourth quarter 2021 production.

    We are deeply saddened by the fatality at our Base plant mining operations on January 6, 2022. We extend our thoughts and condolences to the family, friends and colleagues of the deceased worker.

    The incident occurred when one heavy haul truck rear-ended a second heavy haul truck while they were both driving up a mine haul ramp. The two workers in the moving haul truck that was struck from behind were taken to hospital and released with minor injuries. The driver of the other heavy haul truck did not survive. We continue to investigate this incident with a focus on the actions required to prevent such a devastating result from reoccurring.

    In the second half of December, there were two separate operational incidents: one at the Syncrude mine and the other at the Firebag in situ operation. We have completed preliminary assessments and this news release summarizes the related issues and impacts, as currently known, and outlines the corrective actions we are undertaking.

    The Syncrude and Firebag operational incidents negatively impacted production by approximately 195,000 barrels per day (bbls/d) during the latter half of December. As a result, 2021 annual production was 732,000 bbls/d or approximately 1% below our guidance range of 740,000 bbls/d.

    We have resolved the immediate operational issues and the assets have returned to normal production levels.

    Syncrude

    Mid December, 2021 failures occurred in the chains driving the two crushers at the Mildred Lake mine. These new chains were installed in the fourth quarter of 2020 with the objective of continued performance improvement and had operated normally up until that time. During subsequent repair work, we determined that certain flaws in design and quality caused the failure. As we executed the repairs and worked to restart the facilities, repeat chain failures and sustained extreme weather conditions in the region impacted labour productivity together with freezing of oil sands ore on feed aprons, conveyor belts and internal workings. As a result, the repair, which was initially estimated to take one week, took three weeks.

    The team has completed work to ensure both crushers are operational, with only one crusher required to meet volume requirements. We repaired the first crusher by installing the previous version of chains and the second crusher has been repaired and is scheduled for similar chain replacement in mid-February. Until then, measures have been taken to mitigate the potential risk of further failure.

    Firebag

    On December 16, 2021, two critical furnaces tripped, hours apart due to frozen air louvers. This led to the rapid reduction of production at Firebag when our two largest plants went offline, along with the shutdown of approximately 170 wells while approximately 100 wells remained in production. On December 22, the facility began to ramp up operations and by January 1, 2022 production had reached 200,000 bbls/d. We have implemented further mitigation measures while the investigation continues to ensure our winterization program is sufficiently robust to withstand extended periods of cold weather.

    Production Impacts

    In Q4 2021, average production was reduced by approximately 35,000 bbls/d and annual 2021 production was reduced by approximately 8,000 bbls/d as a result of these outages at the end of the year. The fourth quarter utilization rates for Firebag and Syncrude were 93% and 90% respectively. For the full year, 2021 utilization at Firebag was 96% and the utilization at Syncrude was 83%.

    As of January 17, 2022 production at Syncrude and at Firebag was consistent with our 2022 annual production guidance.

    "I am deeply saddened by the fatality at our Base plant mine. This, along with the operational incidents we experienced in December are not acceptable. Further work is required to keep our workers safe and ensure we are consistently reliable, particularly in extreme weather conditions. I am deeply disappointed by these events and I am committed to implementing corrective actions, continuing to strengthen our processes and accountability, and to improving Suncor's performance," said Mark Little, president and chief executive officer.

    Legal Advisory - Forward-Looking Information

    This news release contains certain forward-looking information and forward-looking statements (collectively referred to herein as "forward-looking statements") within the meaning of applicable Canadian and U.S. securities laws. Forward-looking statements in this news release include references to: the schedule for completing the repairs relating to the operational incidents and the belief that the measures taken will mitigate the potential risk of future failures; and Suncor's belief that the steps taken will ensure that its winterization program is sufficiently robust to withstand e
  • J
    Jason
    Suncor absolutely must raise the dividend by 25% on Feb. 1 and another 25% on May 1. Come March it will have been 2 years and the stock still has not recovered. This is unacceptable. The owners are owned their money.
  • C
    Cody
    At 85 oil suncor making about 50000000 profit a day on oil alone. Never mind downstream refining and petrol chemicals gas diesel etc.
  • H
    Hicham
    His is the most undervalued oil stock on the market. Trading at 50% to CNQ. Unbelievable. Time for M Little to be creative.
  • P
    Peter
    IEA miscalculated the oil reserves to be down by 400 million in 2021. The actual reserves are down by 600 million!

    Demand going through the roof. Wait until flights start up again very shortly.

    Not good news today from SU though. On a positive note for those who don't like CVE and Eric N., BMO just re rated CVE to a target of $31.31.
  • D
    DAVE
    Morgan Stanley now forecasting $100 oil in Q3 & Q4 of this year
  • b
    brian
    Investors are in a dilemma, whether to take profits and see the stock consolidates a bit lower, or to keep holding it higher after the short consolidation. I read someplace that the professional traders are taking profits on oils, while the institution investors are holding oil for the longer run.
  • b
    bobby
    This update from SU:
    The Syncrude and Firebag operational incidents negatively impacted production by approximately 195,000 barrels per day (bbls/d) during the latter half of December. As a result, 2021 annual production was 732,000 bbls/d or approximately 1% below our guidance range of 740,000 bbls/d.

    We have resolved the immediate operational issues and the assets have returned to normal production levels.
    -- and some production disruptions news in the middle east by terrorist attacks helping oil.
    SU trading quite well ignoring the production deficit as issues taken care of.
  • J
    Jimmy
    Inflation usually drives up the price of EVERYTHING, INCLUDING OIL.
    There is no reason why oil can't reach $140.00 per barrel this year. It's liquid gold!
    Even a small attack on an oil field....and we are at that mark.
    Bullish
  • J
    Jason
    Check out CNRL for the last 20 days.

    And Suncor is down a percentage point in after hours trading, as oil goes up.

    Wow.

    Honestly, I really regret not buying CNRL but I'll say this: it may be the worst performing of CNQ, IMO, SU and even CVE, but that doesn't make it a bad choice. Not being the best choice does not equal a poor choice. So I'm hanging on.

    If you look at the closing prices for 2017, 2018, and 2019, and the EPS for those years, the average P/E ratio was 15.6 (using CAD), so assuming the stock can crack $5.00 EPS this year and next year it ought to make its way to $75 CAD in the next 12 months or so. That's why thesis.
  • S
    Sandy
    Without reading the comments I am guessing Nancy bought even more today
  • D
    Dutch
    Earnings through the roof are cure for stock prices. Dutch
    Bullish
  • L
    Luc
    Suncor buying actually shares of every weak hands. This stock was in the 30-40 range last 8 years so a lot of resistance (long term shareholders) to break. It will be very bullish for the stock performance after this distribution and a really great opportunity to reduce shares at great price.
    Bullish
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