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Suncor Energy Inc. (SU)
NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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RBC Q1 Estimates for Suncor:
1) Operation EPS = $0.46, consensus, $0.42
2) Production = 783604 barrels a day, consensus 797900
Target price $31
This is a high bar, these earnings are going to be hard to beat. Greg Pardy's is good with his estimates. He pointed to a better than expected downstream earnings due to an inventory boost. It is nice to hear positive news from a pro.
Suncor Energy – Outperform: Our first-quarter outlook for Suncor incorporates production of 783,600 bbl/d (vs. 800,700 bbl/d previously). We peg Suncor’s base oil sands production (excluding Syncrude and Fort Hills) at 440,000 bbl/d(including 330,000 bbl/d of SCO & Diesel) (estimated operating costs of $26/bbl) in the quarter. At Syncrude, we peg first quarter production at 188,300 bbl/d of SCO (net) (92% estimated utilization rate) inclusive of a short unplanned outage in March, in the context of operating costs of $35.65/bbl, with Fort Hills bitumen production at 60,300 bbl/d (net) (vs. 70,300 bbl/d previously). In the downstream, we peg Suncor’s operating earnings at $706 million, and operating cash flow at $968 million (including a healthy positive FIFO inventory impact of $235 million). We peg capital spending (including capitalized interest) in the quarter at $843 million. Also included within our first-quarter outlook are $350 million in share repurchases, upstream inventory adjustments of $(100) million and cash tax expense of $231 million.
Have a nice weekend!
For those wondering about Q2 turnaround production impact. RBC spoke to the CFO and here are his comments. They are significant. Glad they share targets, so we can hold them accountable in the Q2 earnings.
This turnaround activity involves several refineries with resultant second-quarter
impacts as follows:
- Suncor’s 137,000 bbl/d Montreal (circa 25,000 bbl/d impact) and 85,000 bbl/d Sarnia
(5,000-10,000 bbl/d impact) refineries recently moved into turnaround.
- The 98,000 bbl/d Commerce City, Colorado (roughly 25,000 bbl/d impact) and 146,000
bbl/d Edmonton (circa 35,000 bbl/d impact) refineries will undergo turnarounds later this
- Upstream wise, Suncor’s 240,000 bbl/d Upgrader 2 is undergoing maintenance in the
second-quarter (about 130,000 bbl/d impact) while there is also planned maintenance at
the 110,000 bbl/d Upgrader 1 (circa 10,000 bbl/d impact).
- Syncrude is currently undergoing a coker turnaround (roughly 70,000 bbl/d gross impact).
Dividend? That's the question. Will it increase on NR at Q1. Imo it will increase, but I think it'll be in halves. Up $.10 first leg and $.12-$.15 second Q depending on price per barrel and covid. Any increase is a good increase. We're undervalued by $15 CDN from 2019, and the fundamentals are now the same.
Suncor at same value now as it was prior to recent $4 increase in oil.........
The International Energy Agency has forecasted a global increase in oil demand. This, combined with SU sound platform will eventually boost stock price.
Please have a look at the link and give me your thoughts? Is that insider buying I'm seeing, along with share buybacks?
I bought suncor @ $18 down to $16 I never stopped buying going up today I’m doing extremely well never sold just buying all way up $30 it’s my cut off price
if this stock doesnt meet or beat estimates next earnings .. we are all sunk ! investors will jus head to the sidelines in droves .. who would want to invest in a stock with a crummy 21 cent divedend when the company is making money hand over fist ... every one always says ` just wait for the next earnings ... ` we have been waiting patiently ... times up !!
Anyone got a reliable source for EPS and share price targets? They seem to be all over the place. EPS moving up with Zacks to 0.44usd from 0.28usd, and CNN to 0.31 usd. On the same day at the same time, share price lowered by National Bank to 29cad from 33cad and Scotia Bank did the opposite rising to 33cad from 30cad.
Hey su ...do you see the oil prices? it is being 3 months over 60.. wake up
SHERYL & IAN
Since the oil melt down, the stock has put in a double bottom at 15-16 CDN with the test in Oct/20. Since then its been in an upward channel ( yes we are at the bottom of the channel right now, but the trend remains intact unless we break low 25s shortly ) I don't understand the impatience unless you have an unrealistic expectations regarding the stock. Its performing decently given what is and where we are in the world right now. I think a lot of people have bought the wrong stock and should have bought either a pure producer or one that is higher on the risk curve that give them better volatility and better short term performance. Part of the learning process for some. This stock will be fine and hopefully will resume its upward channel. I think many forget how much an anchor the downstream assets are in this environment.
This is the reason I like these types of stocks. It goes down in small increments, gives people chances to buy in and you get paid a dividend while you are waiting for it to reverse. And if you want to sell covered calls and get paid that way, is always good. I just have a feeling Suncor is going to up the dividend in May, my guess about 10% or about 30 cents. This stuff gets leaked and if they do UP the dividend this will be up quite a bit by earnings.
We need the wow factor, with unknown potential. Ladies and gentlemen I bring you, Area 137
..Saving my comments until after Q1 earnings. Any realistic predictions for share price for May 4?
Who do you think would run Suncor better; a Harvard Educated Business management graduate who also has a petroleum engineering degree and worked at Suncor for decades OR a monkey on the yahoo finance site complaining about a 3% yield?
Most oil stocks down today. Boo hoo. Tomorrow’s a new day
This stock is easy to hold down because of the DIVY cut. If the DIVY is partially or full restored, holding it below 30 CDN is not realistic.
Remember earnings on big oil coming before we get our dividend re instated. Ride the wave as we deserve it. Suncor board I will say again better not even think twice not reinstatement of the dividend
Funky Leon Medema
Gasoline demand is going to be through the roof this summer. A few days ago I decided to torture myself and attempt to book a campsite in Jasper National Park when reservations opened up. Everyone who was waiting to book at the moment the reservations opened up was assigned a random spot in the queue. I got spot 17,380! And there were more than 9,000 behind me! That was in the first few minutes and was just for one national park. Anecdotal evidence I know, but I think largely indicative of what will be the trend for this summer.
While jet fuel consumption is obviously going to be low for some time, I think that will ultimately be a net benefit to Suncor because people are going to be doing so much more driving (and filling up at Petro-Can). Their downstream division will be printing money in the second/third quarters just like their upstream division has so far in 2021.
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