4.27 0.00 (0.00%)
After hours: 4:45PM EDT
|Bid||0.00 x 0|
|Ask||0.00 x 0|
|Day's Range||4.12 - 4.29|
|52 Week Range||3.42 - 8.25|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||2.62|
|Forward Dividend & Yield||N/A (N/A)|
|1y Target Est||N/A|
As of April 17, 2018, 31 analysts were covering SWN. About 3% of analysts have “strong buy” ratings, and ~13% of analysts have “buy” recommendations. Around 68% of analysts have “hold” recommendations, and ~16% have “sell” recommendations on SWN. There aren’t any “strong sell” recommendations on the stock.
For 1Q18, ConocoPhillips (COP) expects total production in a range of 1,180–1,220 Mboepd (thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day). On a year-over-year basis, the midpoint of ConocoPhillips’s 1Q18 production guidance range is ~24% lower than its 1Q17 production of 1,584 Mboepd. Even sequentially, ConocoPhillips’s 1Q18 production guidance is ~2% lower, compared with 4Q17 production of 1219 Mboepd. ConocoPhillips’s 1Q18 production guidance excludes production from Libya.
In the last four quarters, Southwestern Energy (SWN) beat the consensus EPS estimates in 1Q17 and 4Q17. However, SWN missed the EPS estimates in 2Q17 and 3Q17. Thus, in the last four quarters, SWN beat the consensus EPS estimate 50% of the time, and missed the consensus EPS estimate 50% of the time.
The EIA released its natural gas storage report on April 19, 2018. The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories declined by 36 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 1,299 Bcf on April 6–13, 2018. The inventories also declined by 808 Bcf or 38.3% year-over-year.
Wall Street analysts expect Southwestern Energy (SWN) to report ~3% higher operating cash flow year-over-year of ~$321 million in 1Q18 from ~$312 million in 1Q17. On a sequential basis, SWN’s estimated 1Q18 operating cash flow is higher by ~4% when compared with ~$308 million in 4Q17.
For 1Q18, Southwestern Energy (SWN) expects total production of 226 Bcfe (billion cubic feet equivalent). On a year-over-year basis, Southwestern Energy’s 1Q18 production guidance is ~11% higher when compared with 1Q17 production of 204 Bcfe.
For 1Q18, Wall Street analysts expect Southwestern Energy (SWN) to report revenues of ~$870 million. Sequentially, Southwestern Energy’s 1Q18 revenue expectations are higher by ~8% when compared with 4Q17 revenues of ~$809 million. A strong year-over-year increase in Southwestern Energy’s 1Q18 production coupled with higher realized prices for natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids are expected to impact SWN’s revenues positively.
Southwestern Energy (SWN) is set to report its 1Q18 earnings on April 26, 2018, after the market closes. For 1Q18, excluding any one-time items, the current consensus net income estimate for Southwestern Energy is ~$136 million. On a year-over-year basis, SWN is expected to report ~56% higher profits when compared with 1Q17’s adjusted net income of ~$87 million. Even on a sequential basis and excluding any one-time items, SWN’s 1Q18 consensus net income estimate is much higher by ~116% from a profit of ~$63 million in 4Q17.
On April 11–18, 2018, US crude oil June futures rose 2.6%. The following natural gas–weighted stocks could follow oil’s rise based on the past five trading sessions’ correlations with US crude oil June futures: Southwestern Energy (SWN) at 79.3% Chesapeake Energy (CHK) at 74.1% Range Resources (RRC) at 68.6%
On April 18, 2018, natural gas May futures were unchanged and closed at $2.739 per MMBtu (million British thermal units). On April 19, 2018, the EIA’s natural gas inventory report will likely be important for natural gas prices.
Encana (ECA) has not given any specific production guidance for 1Q18. However, in its 4Q17 earnings press release, Encana provided guidance for fiscal 2018, when it expects total production of 360 Mboepd1–380 Mboepd, which represents a midpoint increase of ~18% from its production of 313.2 Mboepd in 2017.
On April 17, 2018, natural gas May 2018 futures fell 0.5% and settled at $2.738 per MMBtu (million British thermal units). However, between April 10 and April 17, 2018, natural gas May futures rose 3.1%. Unseasonal cold weather could be behind natural gas’s rise over this time period.
As of March 29, 2018, Southwestern Energy’s (SWN) total shares shorted (or short interest) stood at ~50.9 million, whereas its average daily volume is ~20.8 million. This means the short interest ratio for SWN stock is ~2.5x. In January 2018, the short interest ratio for SWN’s stock made a 52-week low of ~1.5x. Southwestern Energy’s short interest ratio has a 52-week high of ~3.0x, which was made in December 2017. Here Southwestern Energy stock’s average daily volume is calculated for the short interest reporting period from March 16, 2018, to March 29, 2018.
As of April 13, 2018, Southwestern Energy (SWN) had an implied volatility of ~55.3%, which is higher than its implied volatility of ~62.2% at the end of 1Q18. Last week, SWN’s implied volatility decreased from ~59.9% to ~55.3% due to a ~5% rise in its stock price. Based on Southwestern Energy’s implied volatility of ~55.3% and assuming a normal distribution of prices, 365 days in a year, and a standard deviation of one, SWN’s stock is expected to close between $4.83 and $4.15 in the next seven calendar days.
As we have seen in the previous part of this series, Southwestern Energy’s (SWN) stock rose more than 5% last week. Last week, Southwestern Energy’s stock had a positive correlation of ~3% with natural gas.
Last week, Southwestern Energy (SWN) stock rose more than 5% from $4.26 to $4.49. SWN rose on the first four days of last week, followed by a minor decline on Friday. Despite rising prices last week, SWN’s stock price was confined within a horizontal consolidation pattern around its 50-day moving average. Volume remained lower throughout the week, which is a typical characteristic of price consolidation.
For 1Q18, Range Resources (RRC) expects total production of 2.18 Bcfe (billion cubic feet equivalent) per day. On a YoY (year-over-year) basis, Range Resources’ 1Q18 production guidance is ~13% higher compared to its 1Q17 production of 1.93 Bcfe. Sequentially, Range Resources’ 1Q18 production guidance is higher by less than one percentage point compared to its 4Q17 production of 2.17 Bcfe.
Between April 4 and April 11, 2018, our list of natural gas–weighted stocks rose 5.9%. Natural gas May futures fell 1.6% over this period.
The natural gas–weighted stocks that could follow oil’s rise based on the past five trading sessions’ correlations with US crude oil May futures were: Southwestern Energy (SWN): 79.4% Cabot Oil & Gas (COG): 77.1% Range Resources (RRC): 64.1% Gulfport Energy (GPOR): 56.4% Chesapeake Energy (CHK): 46.9%
In 4Q17, 25 hedge funds were buyers of Southwestern Energy (SWN) stock, and 42 hedge funds were sellers. That means that in 4Q17, total selling hedge funds outnumbered total buying hedge funds by 17. As of December 31, 2017, 54 hedge funds that filed Form 13F held SWN in their portfolios. Three of those hedge funds had SWN in their top ten holdings.
As of April 9, 2018, Southwestern Energy (SWN) had an implied volatility of 59.9%, which is higher than its implied volatility of 58.2% at the end of 4Q17. Last week, SWN’s implied volatility decreased from 66.3% to 59.9% due to a 4% rise in its stock.
As we saw in the previous part of this series, Southwestern Energy (SWN) stock rose 4% last week (April 2 to April 9). Natural gas (BOIL) prices rose marginally by 0.4%. So it’s clear that SWN stock outperformed natural gas prices last week. In this part, we’ll look at the correlation between SWN stock and natural gas prices.
Last week, Southwestern Energy (SWN) stock rose 4%, from $4.10 on April 2, 2018, to $4.27 on April 9, 2018. SWN continued to consolidate around its 50-day moving average. On Monday, April 2, 2018, SWN fell below its 50-day moving average only to regain it on Tuesday. It rose further on Wednesday and Thursday but fell toward its 50-day moving average on Friday. Its volume remained low throughout the week, which is a typical characteristic of price consolidation.