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Talos Energy Inc. (TALO)

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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12.86+0.55 (+4.47%)
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  • D
    Dan
    Energy Prospectus Group recently published a new report on TALO. Their valuation is $30/share with nothing in the valuation for the Zama Project offshore Mexico.
  • J
    JSF
    Just a heads up...oil spill in a Gulf suspected is pipeline owned by Talos. Cannot confirm but you can read the news. That said I do not do not own any Talos but I may consider buying some.
  • J
    Jamal
    Key Banc upgraded TALO to strong buy yesterday, for all of you know it all neophytes calling this compamny bankrupt. Go ahead and short it... i dare you....
  • N
    NiceTry
    Earnings today and its crickets on this board@
  • d
    d
    8.00 share loss in one month. Time to bail?
  • d
    d
    If you cant make money at these oil prices your toast.
    Neutral
  • T
    Troy
    Just now actually looking at the posts from yesterday, and to answer a few questions about why I was buying yesterday at $5.60-$5.70. Basically, I think TALO is trading based on the market thinking there will be bad news from Zama. And they are probably right, I think there is a good chance that Pemex/Mexico screws TALO on Zama. And I think the stock is trading badly because of this uncertainty. 6 things, 1 - Even if PEMEX screws TALO on Zama, it is still going to be good for TALO, but it will just extend the timeline quite a bit. But ultimately, a smaller portion later down the road of one of the biggest finds in the GOM in decades ... still isn't a "bad" thing as the market is acting like. 2 - I think Mexico screws TALO publicly on Zama because it is high profile, but then they quietly give them the other smaller play, so that is still not as big as Zama, but still a nice "consolation prize". 3 - But here is the main thing, if you pretend the Mexico assets don't even exist, and look at TALO based on value of CURRENT producing and soon to be producing assets, it is literally one of the cheapest stocks in terms of valuation, is some cases multiples behind other E&Ps. 4 - So, are they so cheap because they look bad and have bad financials? No, they actually are in good shape, especially considering their hedges. So, assuming we won't still be at $40 oil in 2022 (which I don't believe we will), there is imho near 0 chance of them running into financial issues. So again, no reason for them having a valuation lower than there peers, and if anything they are better shape financially than many peers so actually should be at a premium. 5 - They are going to crush their Q2 #s. All you have to do is listen to the conference call, go through the transcript, look at the projected earnings estimates, do a little math and you'll see they should crush both the top line and bottom-line numbers. They were very smart to push maintenance and planned shutdowns from earlier in the year to Q2 to take a hit in the Q2 when oil prices were trash which will make Q3/Q4 better. 6 - The operations VP just spent $417 of his own money, not an options grant but direct purchase at market, when the stock was $8.34. And he now has almost 100k shares of the stock. So the operations VP, who knows a lot more about what is going on at TALO than you or I, decided it was worth putting down nearly 1/2 million dollars when the stock was considerably higher than it is even right now after the increase today.

    So ... all in all, again, I think the stock is trading poorly because of Zama, but I think even if Zama news is bad and the stock is still stuck in the mud, when they come out with their Q2 numbers in 2 months they are going to have headlines saying "TALO beats on Revenue and Earnings", etc. and the stock, if it hadn't moved back above $10 by that time, will move back above $10 on the earnings "beat", which again shouldn't come to a surprise to anyone who can do some simple math. And so, I'll gladly take TALO at $5.70 and $6.31. It WILL be a $20-$30 stock again for those who are patient. jmho
    Bullish
  • T
    Troy
    It's pretty funny seeing bashers try to reason that $TALO and $CPE are going down because of bad Qs in 2020. I guess they missed the whole Covid worldwide lockdown and negative oil prices. And then for TALO more hurricane shutins in 2H 2020 than they had in the previous 10 years combined (only in 2020 I guess). Raise your hand if you think 2021 is going to go like 2020 and we see all of that happening again? Because what I see are oil prices that are the highest they've been since 2018, now closing in on $70, and only going higher in the upcoming months. Seeing bashers across many stock msg board bash oil stocks based on what happened in 2020 shows me shorts are scared and don't know what to do. Cover, take your losses, and move on ... that's what you need to do.
    Bullish
  • T
    Troy
    ok guys, I am legit concerned about TALO. Our wonderful prez is looking to shut down the GOM oil industry permanently. The fact that even workover and completions permits are being stopped is insane. I previously held Zama as the wildcard and lagnaippe, but now Zama may be the make or break on TALOs survival. I hated to do it but I sold 1/2 of my TALO shares at $9.6 and moved into CPE at $12.36. Looks to have been a smart move thus far. So now I'm wondering when/if I should move those funds back into TALO and even if I should think about selling some of my current shares. I was in SGY when they went BK and don't want to sit and watch the government do the same to TALO.
    Neutral
  • s
    simon
    To anyone who says that the oil industry will shutdown, you are aware of the fact that planes, tankers, construction vehicles and the military uses waay more oil than all cars/trucks in the world does. I know that the western world truly believes this, but just because the EV industry is on the rise here, there still is a long way to go for the rest of the world.
    Bullish
  • E
    EC
    Showdown in Mexico’s Zama Oil Field
    Pemex tries to muscle in on a consortium’s field in what could be a test of the USMCA.

    By Mary Anastasia O’Grady
    June 27, 2021 3:57 pm ET
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    Pemex’s Cadareyta refinery during a visit by Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador outside Monterrey, Mexico, Aug. 27, 2020.
    PHOTO: DANIEL BECERRIL/REUTERS

    This article is in your queue.Open Queue
    Mexico’s state-owned oil company, Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex), announced earlier this month that it is canceling plans to drill an appraisal well in the Gulf of Mexico’s Zama oil field. This brings the total number of wells drilled by Pemex in the Zama field to, er, zero.

    Zama is one of the largest oil discoveries in shallow Mexican waters in some 20 years, and Pemex wants to be the “operator” of its development phase. But it isn’t the only company that wants this important job, on which the success of the Zama field depends.

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    The area the government leased to Pemex in 2014 is right next to Block 7, also in the Zama field. In 2015 the rights to tap Block 7—via a production-sharing agreement with the government—were awarded to a consortium of three international oil companies.

    The Block 7 consortium—Houston-based Talos Energy, Wintershall Dea of Germany and Britain’s Premier Oil —has since drilled one exploratory (wildcat) well and three appraisal wells (used to understand the potential of a reservoir). The consortium has invested $325 million in its Zama reservoir operation. In 2017 it announced that it had discovered between 1.4 billion and two billion barrels of crude.

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    When a single oil reservoir straddles more than one block, and therefore more than one party has drilling rights, international best practices call for a method of sharing the oil known as unitization. Both sides are involved in running what is similar to a joint venture and the barrels are divvied up according to the ownership estimates. But a single operator ensures that the oil field runs at maximum efficiency.

    The Block 7 consortium wants Talos Energy, which is the operator of its work so far in Zama, to be the operator of the shared field. The company’s record suggests that it has the necessary capability. In July 2020 the two sides were instructed by Mexico’s Energy Ministry to work out a unitization agreement, but that negotiation failed, in part because the tug-of-war over the operator remains unresolved.

    By any empirical measure Pemex appears to be a suboptimal choice for operator. Yet the decision is now in the hands of Mexico’s secretary of energy, who also happens to be the chairman of Pemex. The clear conflict of interest is further complicated by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s desire to restore Pemex to its 1970s glory days as a monopoly.

    The implications of this case go beyond Zama. It’s a test of whether Mexico remains serious about its commitment under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement to treat all investors in the upstream petroleum industry equally.

    In a Jan. 7, 2020, statement, Talos said that an evaluation by the petroleum consulting firm Netherland, Sewell & Associates Inc. found that the consortium sits on 60% of the reservoir. Pemex says the majority of the oil is inside its block.

    A Pemex appraisal well could clarify the boundaries of the reservoir, as National Hydro Commission member Alma América Porres Luna has pointed out. Another commissioner, Héctor Moreira Rodríguez, has urged Pemex to reconsider so as not to delay further a unitization agreement and the launch of production in an area with “high potential.”

    Yet the ownership question isn’t as important as it might seem. As production advances, new information becomes available. Percentages of ownership can shift over time. Of greater importance is that the operator has the proven qualifications to run the project. Industry standards call for an operator with high potential for accessing the technology, financing and human capital necessary to maximize output.

    Talos’s performance on Block 7 speaks for itself. In the adjacent block, Pemex looks like a classic free-rider. Its initial lease expired in 2019, without the company meeting even its minimum work requirement. Pemex’s junk-bond status won’t help in the financing department. And while the company has expertise in shallow-water drilling, its platforms top out at about 115 meters. The Zama field requires platforms of 170 meters, and Talos has already demonstrated expertise in deep shallow-water projects on the U.S. side of the Gulf of Mexico. Most convincingly, Talos has already drilled wells in Zama while Pemex has not.

    In January 2020 Talos president and
  • D
    Dimitri
    $CPE conversation
    US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels, total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 7.5 million barrels last week (eia.gov) $CPE $CDEV $LPI $FANG $TALO
  • T
    Troy
    TALO has lagged the sector because they were shopping this share offering. That nearly always leads to those involved shorting the stock to keep the price down so the deal closes at a lower level. I've seen it happen dozens of times. A similar thing happened to CPE a few months ago. In this case the pushdown couldn't stop it from moving up with the sector, but it lessened the move for sure. I was invested in CPE and TALO and CPE was in the $5s with TALO in the $6s. As you can see CPE zoomed by TALO. CPE was nearly double TALO today. So I see that now this share offering is done there won't be the artificial overhang anymore for TALO and it will most probably start moving up and catch up with the sector. Don't know what is going to happen short term with oil and this huge build, but if the sector stays relatively in the range it is in I see TALO hanging around this price range for a bit as shorts cover then it will start to move up pretty steadily and get back to around $14-$15 within the next month or two. All jmho ... but I've seen this movie before. ;)
    Bullish
  • F
    Fred Hall
    News relevant to Talos Energy Inc.

    https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Rises-On-Major-Crude-Draw.html

    IMO we are going to see a significant price change soon. Would not be caught short.
    Oil prices rose on Tuesday afternoon after the API reported a significant draw in commercial crude inventories
    Oil prices rose on Tuesday afternoon after the API reported a significant draw in commercial crude inventories
    oilprice.com
    Bullish
  • C
    Clean
    Talos Energy is reporting earnings tomorrow. Could be some decent free cash flow generation this quarter!... I'm predicting this will be the last time it trades in the low $10s.

    For those of you shareholders that have Reddit, join
    r/talosenergy and share the word regarding Talos!

    Could be a big month for shareholders
    Bullish
  • D
    Danny
    Talos is a GREAT long term investment. Key word. Long Term. Look at the most recent statement that was released today by the company. BUY this dip. Eventually we will be back to $20 plus, but it may take some time
    Bullish
  • T
    Troy
    In 2018 when WTI hit $45/bbl, TALO momentarily dipped down to $15. When in late 2018/early 2019 WTI was $50/bbl, TALO was hanging around $20.

    Today WTI broke over $49 ... but TALO is in the $8s. TALO is still trading at depressed levels, but obviously, oil prices are recovering and TALO will easily survive and thrive going forward (even with no Zama). So ... anyone think TALO WON'T get back to $20? And that's a minimum. Will get back to $30+ if you are patient enough. So right now TALO is still one of my biggest holdings. I'm selling at $20+. Not a question of if but when. And then if Zama actually hits, it will blow past $20. No brainer to be invested in TALO right now.
    Bullish
  • C
    Conservatino
    On August 11, 2020, Abendschein Robert D., TALOS's EVP & Head of Operations acquirred 50,000 shares at $8.34 and WTI at that time was $41.61. Now, after 6 months, WTI is at $52.61 (increase by more than $10), but share price is still around $8.34. Why?
    Bullish
  • t
    the Found ation
    I'm a shareholder who wanted more disclosure from that earnings call. We learned that BP has not communicated a forward plan with its partners per Puma West. The analysts never asked about the size of the find. Didn't ask if the find found more than one reservoir, or the oil water contact, or how many wells do you think you will need to define the reservoir. How much does each well cost? What year should we expect to receive our first dollar from production? Disappointed with how many analysts were on the call. We need more coverage from smarter oil men. Zama is our savior. Hurry up while oil is on the rise
  • J
    Jim
    Talos Energy LLC, Houston, and partners have submitted appraisal drilling plans to Mexico’s government regarding the Zama-1 discovery well on Block 7 in the shallow-water Sureste basin offshore Mexico. The appraisal well is expected to spud in the fourth quarter.

    Talos Energy operates Block 7 with 35% interest. Partners are Sierra Oil & Gas 40% and Premier Oil PLC 25%. Premier Oil said the group plans to drill an appraisal well with one sidetrack to confirm the oil-water contact as defined by a seismic flat spot. Drilling plans also seek to confirm detailed distribution of the reservoir.

    Zama’s principal target is Tertiary clastic reservoirs. The Zama structure is estimated to have a gross unrisked resource range of 100-500 million bbl. The Zama exploration well spudded in 2017 (OGJ Online, May 22, 2017). A secondary target is Zama Deep.