It appears the chance of adding TCAP cheap had gone. It was just traded at 13.76 (9/15). Most BDCs should not be held for their dividends because most of them could not cover their dividends, exception may be MAIN.
The trading setup for TCAP looks very enticing. I started receiving notifications from awe.som_sto-cks the other week and so far they have presented interesting new trade ideas.
Is TCAP overvalued at current levels? Yo you should really check out awesome*sto-cks, they seem on point with their stocks.
I have owned TCAP for many years and always thought of it as one of the better BDCs. I am very tempted to buy at these levels. I admit that I don't understand the business that well. Was the ER that bad? Can someone who knows more about the present situation give me his/her opinion? TIA.
Added TCAP twice, on 9/1 (ex-div date) at 13.20 and again on 9/5 at 13.16. Tried to add more when it made new 12-mo low of 12.84 earlier today but missed the chance. Will try again tomorrow. A lot of people day trading this one, based on its rising daily volume. So it can continue to be volatile before it would announce its next dividend but if it maintains its 0.45 dividend, I believe it will rise sharply.
sigh, i have to cut bait here. the market doesnt give 13% yields away. something bad is happening and i dont want to be the last to find out.
On 2/28/17, TCAP announced it had sold 7M new shares at 19.50 each (It closed at 19.35 on that day), today it was traded at 13.60, a loss of 30.25% if you bought some at 19.50. Should you buy more, hold or sell. I have no idea.
TCAP has been paying a quarterly dividend of 0.45 for six quarters including the upcoming on with an ex-div date on 9/1/17. I believe we should see price start rising next week. It may be good time to sell them if you cannot sleep at night.
At today's price of 13.60, if it can maintain its dividend of 0.45, that would be a pretty attractive annual yield of 13.24%. With a recent NAV of 14.83, its discount is only about 8.3%. But if it cuts its dividend, then it would indeed drop a lot more.
I took a look at its NII for last four quarters: 0.41 (6/3/0/17), 0.42 (3/31/17), 0.46 (12/31/16) and 0.42 (9/30/16). Therefore on paper its NII should at least cover a diviend of 0.41. But can it?
The bad news is its NAV dropped from 15.29 (3/31/17) to 14.83 (6/30/17). I am currently holding quite a few shares of TCAP but have no plan to add unless it drops 5% or more. Still down about 5.4% but I am really worrying about its cutting dividend because I believe the chance of its doing so is quite low this year. Worse comes to worse, I believe it can pay at least a 0.39 dividend but of course I can be wrong. Therefore you should make your own decision. There is no free lunch in life.
TCAP, please address the dividend coverage. I want to buy more but I am waiting for the dividend cut. as long as the payout ratio is over .95, I am staying on the sidelines.
all this does is go down 1% every day. go ahead and reduce the dividend and stop the bleeding. I swear this will go up 5% as soon as they reduce is to .38
Is this outfit just plain unlucky with all their bad investments or is something else going on?
All companies are getting punished for missing on earnings and TCAP is no different take it as a buy opportunity still being given a 17.00 price target by analysts and pays a nice dividend
The promised dividend cut did not help.
Nice article on TCAP by Motley Fool. They point out the uncertainty on some other companies that could go on non-accrual that would reduce the dividend to what we don't know and since there is so much uncertainty about the future of dividend cuts then that is the reason the stock has had such a huge decline in the last several days. What TCAP is actually worth is anybody's guess. It appears that in most of the BDC stocks you get dividends but lose it all when the stock declines.
Looks like long term investors are dumping depressing share price. Selling not done yet. Come back in two weeks may bottom at 11
is anyone on this board besides spam bots?
TCAP management very much under performing. By far the worst internally managed BDC the past few years. Not that that is a large group mind you. Who knows though, last time TCAP fell this much or more it was a good short term buy opportunity. I remain skeptical.
I dont like to catch a falling knife but if they would go ahead and drop this dividend to .37 or .38, I would buy.
Triangle Capital Corporation NYSE $TCAP Correlation Histogram
X axis : Stocks Price Correlation Coefficient Y axis : Quantity of stocks Sep-2016 1,000 Day Parameter 4,338 NYSE Stocks Price Analysis This stock mode of correlation coefficient is 0.8 In other words, the correlation coefficient of the other stocks