TCAP, please address the dividend coverage. I want to buy more but I am waiting for the dividend cut. as long as the payout ratio is over .95, I am staying on the sidelines.
all this does is go down 1% every day. go ahead and reduce the dividend and stop the bleeding. I swear this will go up 5% as soon as they reduce is to .38
Is this outfit just plain unlucky with all their bad investments or is something else going on?
All companies are getting punished for missing on earnings and TCAP is no different take it as a buy opportunity still being given a 17.00 price target by analysts and pays a nice dividend
The promised dividend cut did not help.
Looks like long term investors are dumping depressing share price. Selling not done yet. Come back in two weeks may bottom at 11
is anyone on this board besides spam bots?
TCAP management very much under performing. By far the worst internally managed BDC the past few years. Not that that is a large group mind you. Who knows though, last time TCAP fell this much or more it was a good short term buy opportunity. I remain skeptical.
Nice article on TCAP by Motley Fool. They point out the uncertainty on some other companies that could go on non-accrual that would reduce the dividend to what we don't know and since there is so much uncertainty about the future of dividend cuts then that is the reason the stock has had such a huge decline in the last several days. What TCAP is actually worth is anybody's guess. It appears that in most of the BDC stocks you get dividends but lose it all when the stock declines.
I dont like to catch a falling knife but if they would go ahead and drop this dividend to .37 or .38, I would buy.
Triangle Capital Corporation NYSE $TCAP Correlation Histogram
X axis : Stocks Price Correlation Coefficient Y axis : Quantity of stocks Sep-2016 1,000 Day Parameter 4,338 NYSE Stocks Price Analysis This stock mode of correlation coefficient is 0.8 In other words, the correlation coefficient of the other stocks
after listening to the CC, if you can understand the answers to the questions then an investor can get a better handle on what price level TCAP is worth investing in. Looking at the chart starting in 07 it started at 14, then reached a high of 30 in Nov of 2013. then a steady decline to about 17.3 when they reported earnings last week. From the chart it looks possible TCAP could go down to 13.
Below is a SA article by William Packer who posts on here as William , Pacman and other logins. He is a short term trader and shares my opinion of FSC.
￼ William Packer's Blog debt, bonds, REITs, long/short equity (321 followers) Send Message Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors. FSC Remains A SELL Jul. 29, 2017 9:10 AM ET|3 comments Summary new non-accrual loans to hit NAV including ameritox (coming soon) NII continues to fall and will fall further under the new management NAV discount window will narrow from losses rather than appreciation I give a $5 price target for FSC vs $5.50-$5.60 range (where I sold) Sometimes you just got to maximize your value and move on when faced with poor performing assets like FSC. Its true that FSC will soon be managed by Oaktree but they are not miracle workers. They will have to work through the non-accruals that FSC currently faces and will face due to FSAMs decisions. NAV per share may drop for some time before stabilizing completely. If the share price stays stable near $5, total returns will provide about a 7% ROE to new investors buying near todays prices. While ROE will not be terrible, your funds can generate better returns in $MCC and $TCAP at these prices. MCC has a much better fee structure, trades at a steeper discount, and provides a higher yield. MCC is in the process of moving their portfolio into larger borrowers which will provide returns closer to the portfolios of their privately managed funds. MDLY, the manager of MCC, owns significant amounts of MCC and when coupled with the incentive fee total return hurdle affecting 100% of the incentive fee, interests are aligned with investors. MCC currently trades around $6.38 and I believe $7 is a reasonable near term price target subject to any major change to their NII/NAV over the next 6 months. Basically, if the NII/NAV drops considerably then you'll need to rethink the upwards price target level, or trade around the news - like potentially selling in the AM and buying back cheaper on the day of any bad earnings news. (Just to maximize your total return) TCAP is my favorite though, with their internally-managed fee structure and high yield north of 10%. This yield is covered since they just raised a lot of capital and received another SBIC license. So as capital is put to work and their leverage increases back to a more historical level, NII should accrete from the current 0.44(core NII run rate excluding 1 time charges) to 0.52 to 0.55 per share, covering their 0.45 dividend. It wont take more than a couple quarters to get back to these levels and the stock price should increase back to $19-$23 from the current $17.35 level.
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￼ Code Talker Market Analysis, Contributor Comments (1958) |+ Follow |Send Message Hello WP, as you know I respect your take, and, while I could see FSC reaching $5 a share near term -- especially on earnings release -- I believe it will be a mistake for investors to sell so low [with the exception, perhaps, of investors who absolutely must maintain an exact dividend payout for income AND who are convinced there will be a dividend cut] when share prices for FSC and FSFR are almost certainly going to be much higher a year from now under OAK's capable management.
It is more: can patient investors afford a possible -- not definite -- dividend cut, and can they average down during weakness in order to reap the reward of much higher share prices [along with dividend payments along the way] a year from now? 29 Jul 2017, 09:16 AM Report Abuse Reply 0 Like ￼ William Packer, Contributor Comments (1300) |Following |Send Message Author’s reply » $5 entry = possible move to $5.5 to $6.5 over next 24 months. (7.23 is stale and ameritox and a few other problem credits will take NAV down somewhat) Dividend ROE will be lower than peers due to high fees and lower investment yields. Oak will maximize NAV stability over time in order to extend the life on their fees and allow for the stock to equal or exceed NAV levels. (future NAV). I think there will be a better investment return in TCAP going forward than FSC. The odds of higher share prices, strong dividends and strong total returns (NAV change + dividends) are higher for TCAP by far given TCAPs current price, yield, and portfolio earnings quality. Internally-managed BDCs offer improved expense related performance as they scale and much lower + aligned expenses than externally-managed vehicles. TCAP gives the NAV stability that investors desire + high returns and that is a recipe for a strong valuation multiple.
I like MCCs fee structure way better than oaktree/fsam, and i question whether or not oaktree management will have a meaningful impact on the FSC portfolio over the next 4 quarters. I think that oak's impact will take longer. Yes, there is the psychological effect of having oak as the manager now but i think its factored into the current price.
in short, i just find that there are better returns available in the market and that FSC has upside but its not worth the risk compared to alternatives at this point. 29 Jul 2017, 10:44 AM Report Abuse Reply 0 Like ￼ William Packer, Contributor Comments (1300) |Following |Send Message Author’s reply » You'd actually get more upside and better returns out of FSFR than FSC at this point if picking between the two. 29 Jul 2017, 10:52 AM Report Abuse Reply 0 Like￼ Before you comment, why not add your picture? Username (*required) Add Your Comment:Share your comment:
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William Packer says that TCAP is his favorite ???
worried about this dividend, can they keep this payout ratio?
I wanted to hear the 1st quarter podcast. I called the telephone number and was contacted by a man in the Philipines. He tried to set up the call if I provided information. I declined. I question the management decisions of Triangle Capital Corporation to hire company in the Philipines rather than a USA company. Triangle may have saved a few bucks but lost me as loyal shareholder. Who can trust the management of Triangle Capital who broadcast a podcast through the Philipines. I am investing hard earned money so I can deal trough a Philipine man. Think about it.
anyone following this dog? seems bad when a stock drops pre-earnings. somebody on the inside always gets the data before it is published
i bought this #$%$ yesterday. I have never been a proponent of shareholder lawsuits but I just got screwed, clearly wouldnt have bought at 20 when the company was selling at 19.5
3 days remaining if you anyone is looking to get in on next dividend
Triangle Capital Corporation (TCAP): Dividend is coming in 3 days, should you buy?
Important news for shareholders and potential investors in Triangle Capital (NYSE:TCAP): The dividend payment of $0.45 will be distributed into shareholder's accounts on Wed 22 Mar 2017 but the stock will begin trading ex-dividend already on the Mon
Just shows they don't care about all the current share holders that are holding this stock !! They just want to raise money and hold the stock price down. Could say what I really feel, but sadly not allowed to on this site !!!