TD.TO - The Toronto-Dominion Bank

Toronto - Toronto Delayed Price. Currency in CAD
73.22
+0.70 (+0.97%)
As of 1:03PM EDT. Market open.
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Previous Close72.52
Open73.20
Bid73.21 x 0
Ask73.22 x 0
Day's Range72.74 - 73.25
52 Week Range65.56 - 80.05
Volume1,067,017
Avg. Volume3,037,057
Market Cap133.948B
Beta (3Y Monthly)1.09
PE Ratio (TTM)11.81
EPS (TTM)N/A
Earnings DateN/A
Forward Dividend & Yield2.96 (4.12%)
Ex-Dividend Date2019-07-09
1y Target EstN/A
  • U.S. Yield Curve Moves Away From Inversion on Century Bond Hints
    Bloomberg

    U.S. Yield Curve Moves Away From Inversion on Century Bond Hints

    (Bloomberg) -- The longest-dated bonds are feeling the heat globally, moving the Treasury yield curve away from inversion, as the U.S. government considers borrowing for a century.After the U.S. curve inverted last week, sparking debate over whether a recession could be 12-18 months away, it steepened Monday as yields on 10-year and 30-year bonds climbed faster than shorter maturities. That came after the U.S. government said Friday it would reach out to investors on the potential issuance of 50- or 100-year bonds.While the immediate prospect of extending the maximum U.S. maturity beyond the current 30 years may be slim, it would permanently alter the shape of the yield curve if it goes ahead, said bond traders. The move at the end of the Treasury curve fed through into Europe, where traders also reacted to the prospect of Germany opening up its purse strings in a crisis.“In this market, selloffs can be vicious,” said Antoine Bouvet, senior rates strategist at ING Groep NV. “There has been some supportive developments on the trade front, and yes the fiscal policy discussion is looking like it is finally happening in Germany, but it is fair to say that investors should reserve their judgment on both these issues.”Thirty-year Treasury yields jumped eight basis points to 2.11% by 11:45 a.m. in London, adding to a six-basis-point increase on Friday. The rebound comes after they slipped below 2% for the first time last week and reached a record-low 1.91%. The two-year, 10-year curve widened to nine basis points, having dropped below zero on Wednesday.‘Very Risky’German 30-year yields also climbed eight basis points to -0.14%, fueled by heavier losses in European swap rates. Longer-dated yields across the globe have bounced after slumping to record lows last week, which left investors crying out for yield. The U.S. could provide that if it goes ahead with longer-dated issuance, while locking in lower borrowing costs for longer.“If you were to get 3.5% to 4% in U.S. Treasuries, that would be very attractive at this point in time,” Tristan Hanson, a money manager at M & G Ltd., told Bloomberg TV. “The bond market looks very risky.”The last five times the yield on 10-year Treasuries dropped below those on two-year securities, a contraction has followed. The Treasury yield curve has undergone a turbulent few weeks amid the prospect of an interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve next month, increased tensions in the U.S.-China trade war and signs that the global economy is slowing.Should the U.S. borrow as far out as 100 years, it would join countries such as Austria and Argentina who have already issued so-called century bonds. They have had contrasting success, with the former’s having returned investors 70% this year, while the latter’s tumbled 29% last week alone.It’s not the first time the U.S. Treasury has weighed extending the maturity of its debt, doing so in 2017, but then it was met with a tepid response from analysts. Not all are convinced this time around either.“Even with the current move in rates, it isn’t clear there would be much interest unless we see some more favorable pickup in yield for extending that duration,” said Richard Kelly, head of global strategy at Toronto-Dominion Bank. “You pick up 50 basis points moving out from 10-year to 30-year, but it isn’t clear you’d have anything close to that for taking on more duration and rolling out to 50-year to 100-year.”To contact the reporters on this story: Stephen Spratt in Hong Kong at sspratt3@bloomberg.net;John Ainger in London at jainger@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Ven Ram at vram1@bloomberg.net, Neil ChatterjeeFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Could The Toronto-Dominion Bank's (TSE:TD) Investor Composition Influence The Stock Price?
    Simply Wall St.

    Could The Toronto-Dominion Bank's (TSE:TD) Investor Composition Influence The Stock Price?

    The big shareholder groups in The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSE:TD) have power over the company. Institutions often own...

  • Bond Rally Charges On With 30-Year Treasury Yields Below 2%
    Bloomberg

    Bond Rally Charges On With 30-Year Treasury Yields Below 2%

    (Bloomberg) -- Want the lowdown on European markets? In your inbox before the open, every day. Sign up here.Alarm bells are ringing louder in bond markets.Among the superlatives: the yield on 30-year Treasuries fell below 2% for the first time and the world’s pile of negative-yielding debt surpassed $16 trillion. And looming over it all was the 10-year Treasury yield dipping below the two-year, in what’s considered a harbinger of a U.S. economic recession in the next 18 months.That expectation, nurtured in recent weeks by worsening U.S.-China trade relations and signs global growth is slowing, was bolstered by weak Chinese and German economic data. The so-called yield inversion drew the ire of U.S. President Donald Trump, who tweeted that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is “clueless.”“We’re heading into a global recession and central banks don’t have much ammunition to counter it,” said Nader Naeimi, AMP Capital Investors Ltd.’s head of dynamic markets in Sydney. “The huge shock from the trade war has basically offset whatever central banks are doing, and that’s some of the signals from the yield-curve inversion.”The 30-year Treasury yield fell as much as six basis points to 1.9623% in Asia trading on Thursday, after sliding 15 basis points the day before.Meanwhile, an inversion of the 2-10 year yield curve that briefly occurred during New York trading surfaced again. The 10-year Treasury yield was as much as 1.3 basis points below the two-year rate on Thursday.Bad European and Chinese data were the trigger for the global bond rally, said Praveen Korapaty, chief global rates strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. “From the pace of the move, I suspect some long-held steepeners are being unwound as well.”Another widely-watched recession indicator, the yield difference between three-month and 10-year Treasuries, inverted in March and has been negative much of the time since, bedeviling investors who anticipated that the curve would steepen as the Fed began to cut interest rates. The global rush for bonds also inverted the two-year to 10-year U.K. yield curve Wednesday.Trump placed the blame for the “crazy inverted yield curve” squarely on the U.S. central bank, which he believes raised interest rates too quickly. The Fed’s reluctance to ease policy more aggressively is “holding us back,” he tweeted.Yield curves normally slope upward as investors demand compensation for putting money at risk over longer periods.As fears grow of a weaker economy in the future, investors drive down yields on longer-dated assets on expectation that rates will drop. There’s another incentive to buy longer bonds, and that’s due to the positive convexity value. This means that those with a longer duration will see larger price climbs in a rally than those with shorter maturities.The U.S. bond market has been a destination for haven flows given that there are fewer and fewer positive-yielding assets to park cash in globally, according to Richard Kelly, head of global strategy at Toronto-Dominion Bank.“The curve inversion to this point is flagging a 55-to-60 percent chance of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months,” Kelly said. “We can all debate whether those signals are as accurate as they once were, but we still seem to be in a slow grind lower for sentiment and momentum and need some positive surprises to change those trends.”The curve isn’t the only thing flashing high alert. The New York’s Fed index showing the probability of a recession over the next 12 months is close to its highest level since the global financial crisis, at around 31%.Others aren’t ready to sound the alarm yet. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s No. 2 official weighed in on the debate on Thursday questioning the value of using the inversion as a sign of recession.“At the moment the U.S. economy is actually growing above trend so they’ve got a fair way to slow from here,” said RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle. Trade disputes are a key risk, though, he said.There’s little evidence in U.S. economic data to suggest a recession is imminent, according to Goldman’s Korapaty, who sees the 10-year yield returning to 1.75% by year-end.Others including macro hedge fund Ensemble Capital are more wary of rising recession risks.“Yes, recession is coming,” according to Ensemble’s Chief Investment Officer Damien Loh. “The ball’s in the court of the White House and Trump given the flip flops on trades we’ve seen.”(Updates with latest bond yields in fifth and sixth paragraphs, RBA comments.)\--With assistance from Emily Barrett, Greg Ritchie and Michael P. Regan.To contact the reporters on this story: Katherine Greifeld in New York at kgreifeld@bloomberg.net;Ruth Carson in Singapore at rliew6@bloomberg.net;John Ainger in London at jainger@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Benjamin Purvis at bpurvis@bloomberg.net, ;Ven Ram at vram1@bloomberg.net, Tan Hwee AnnFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • U.S. Stocks Slide as Treasury Rally Stokes Angst: Markets Wrap
    Bloomberg

    U.S. Stocks Slide as Treasury Rally Stokes Angst: Markets Wrap

    (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell more than 1% as political unrest in Hong Kong and Argentina fueled a rally in global bonds that continues to raise the specter of a looming recession. Gold surged.The S&P 500 Index slumped for a second day and now sits almost 5% below its all-time high as the rally in Treasuries sparked by last week’s escalating trade tensions picked up steam. Risk assets came under pressure after authorities closed Hong Kong’s airport and a Chinese official said the city was at a “critical juncture.” Argentina’s peso and equities sank after voters turned on the president in a primary vote. Corn futures plunged the most since 2013 as more of the grain was planted than analysts had estimated.The weakness in stocks fed demand for haven assets, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield lower by 10 basis points and boosting the yen for a fourth day. China’s central bank fixing continued to signal its determination to manage an orderly depreciation. Italian bonds led gains in European debt after Fitch affirmed the country’s credit rating on Friday. The pound strengthened following three sessions of declines.Monday’s sell-off in risk assets provided another reminder of the fragile mood across markets as it extended the tumultuous start to August. Gains for the safest government bonds show lingering caution by traders who’ve increased bets for central bank easing in recent weeks, as the U.S. and China escalate their trade war and a slew of global data point to slowing growth.“It’s a day with very little news in terms of economic calendar and earnings and a week that’s going to have a lot of earnings that are very important. But it doesn’t look like there’s true sort of resiliency in the sell right now,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “The flight to bonds is really the more concerning element only because it flattens the yield curve.”Here are some key events coming up:Companies releasing results include China’s Tencent, JD.com and Alibaba, Cisco, Brazilian utility Eletrobras, the U.K.’s Prudential, Australia’s Telstra, giant retailer Walmart, Nvidia, Swisscom and the Danish brewer Carlsberg.The U.S. consumer price index, out Tuesday, probably picked up to a 1.7% annual pace in July, according to economist estimates. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, are seen rising 2.1%.Wednesday brings data on China retail sales, industrial production and the jobless rate.Thursday sees the release of U.S. jobless claims, industrial production and retail sales data.These are the main moves in markets:StocksThe S&P 500 Index fell 1.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time.The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dipped 0.2%.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index decreased less than 0.05%.Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 0.4%.CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose less than 0.1%.The euro climbed 0.1% to $1.1211.The Japanese yen strengthened 0.3% to 105.33 per dollar.BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries fell 10 basis points to 1.65%.The two-year rate lost six basis points to 1.5857%.The spread of Italy’s 10-year bonds over Germany’s declined five basis points to 2.33 percentage points.Germany’s 10-year yield decreased two basis points to -0.59%.CommoditiesGold futures rose 1% to $1,524 an ounce.West Texas Intermediate crude added 0.5% to $54.75 a barrel.Corn futures for December delivery fell by the limit of 25 cents to $3.9275 a bushel, down 6%.\--With assistance from Luke Kawa, Adam Haigh and Samuel Potter.To contact the reporters on this story: Sarah Ponczek in New York at sponczek2@bloomberg.net;Olivia Rinaldi in New York at orinaldi1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeremy Herron at jherron8@bloomberg.net, Todd WhiteFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Economists Still See Canada Bucking Global Rate-Cutting Trend
    Bloomberg

    Economists Still See Canada Bucking Global Rate-Cutting Trend

    (Bloomberg) -- Most economists aren’t budging in their prediction Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz will hold interest rates steady for at least another year.Even with renewed speculation about an impending global recession and a trend among the world’s central banks toward easing policy, a Bloomberg survey shows a majority of economists still expect Poloz to keep the benchmark overnight rate at 1.75% until the end of 2020. That’s counter to the expectation of markets, where forward rates point to some easing over the same period.The surprising robustness of the domestic economy may be keeping the bulk of analysts in the more hawkish camp. As global trade uncertainty mounts, key Canadian indicators continue to beat expectations -- including back-to-back trade surpluses -- with growth in the second quarter tracking faster-than-expected.“Poloz will need to see a substantial weakening in domestic data before the bank changes its stance,” Dominique Lapointe, an economist at Laurentian Bank, said by phone from Montreal. “The extent to which global tensions translate into lower business investment and exports in Canada has yet to be seen.”Of the 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, nine expect the Bank of Canada to remain on hold to the end of 2020. Domestic banks are among the more optimistic -- with Toronto Dominion, Bank of Montreal, Scotiabank, National Bank and Laurentian expecting Poloz to hold well into next year.But not all are convinced, with six analysts predicting at least one cut amid escalating U.S.-China trade tension that is raising doubts about the global growth outlook, and which prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates last week.Trade and investment are most at risk for Canada. While underlying export strength is at its strongest since 2015, evidence of slowing global demand is mounting. Inventory-to-sales ratios are at recession-era highs in both the manufacturing and wholesale sectors, and leading indicators for Canadian exporters are deteriorating. Signs are also emerging that the nation’s red-hot labor market is cooling off.Royal Bank of Canada expects Poloz to cut rates in the first quarter of next year, with Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce moving their call ahead to that same period earlier this week. Capital Economics, meanwhile, expects the central bank to lower its benchmark to 1% by the end of 2020.Yet, there are plenty of arguments in favor of a hold. Canada’s economy in the second quarter probably grew at a faster pace than the 2.3% forecast by the Bank of Canada in its July monetary policy report. Interest rates also remain stimulative in real terms and the inflation rate is bang-on the central bank’s target.Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, sees another good reason for Poloz and his colleagues to buck the global easing trend. “Do they want to go back to 2015 where they cut rates and stoked a big acceleration in credit and home prices? That’s pretty fresh in their minds,” Kavcic said in an interview. “I don’t know if they want to go there right now.”A re-acceleration in housing activity in many Canadian cities and some of the strongest wage growth in a decade, even as headline employment slows down, also has the potential to underpin consumption in the second half.To contact the reporters on this story: Erik Hertzberg in Ottawa at eschmitzhert@bloomberg.net;Catarina Saraiva in Houston at asaraiva5@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Theophilos Argitis at targitis@bloomberg.net, Chris Fournier, Stephen WicaryFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Wells Fargo downplays NRA links after El Paso, Dayton shootings
    Yahoo Finance

    Wells Fargo downplays NRA links after El Paso, Dayton shootings

    Amidst growing concerns over skyrocketing gun violence in America, big banks maintain their financial relationships with gun manufacturers and the NRA.

  • Fitch Analysts Don’t See Grounds for Panic Over Canadian Debt
    Bloomberg

    Fitch Analysts Don’t See Grounds for Panic Over Canadian Debt

    (Bloomberg) -- Those looking for evidence of an imminent debt crisis in Canada won’t find it in the latest credit card data.An Aug. 2 report on asset-backed securities from Fitch Ratings, which analyzes credit card payments, indicates consumers are coping with record debt levels and concluded the “stable performance” should continue. Though charge-offs, or receivables that have been written off as noncollectable, hit a two-year high in May, the year-to-date average is little changed from 2018. Meanwhile, delinquencies of more than 60 days actually declined in the second quarter, and the monthly payment rate increased.Ian Rasmussen, senior director at Fitch Ratings, said he and his colleagues had been concerned about the rise in housing and consumer debt. “But we saw that debt related to housing started to level off a little bit,” he said by phone from New York. “It remains an area to watch but not to the same level it was a couple of years ago, when we saw a straight increase in debt balances.”The charge-off rate reached 3.18% in April, the highest in two years, according to Fitch data, which looks at pools of credit card debt that have been securitized by, for example, Toronto-Dominion Bank’s Evergreen Credit Card Trust and Royal Bank of Canada’s Golden Credit Card Trust. However, the charge-off rate has averaged 2.93% this year, versus 2.94% in the same period last year.The other key measure to watch is monthly payment rates, says Rasmussen. The rate in the second quarter rose to 45.9%, up from 42.4% in the prior quarter, and little changed from 46.1% a year earlier.“Typically in Canada, consumers are using cards much more for rewards-based usage, than to carry balances,” he said. But a drop in those levels “would signal that consumers are more interested in paying a balance on the cards, and the reason that would change is that they’re having more difficulty paying off their balances each month.”Absent ShockBut that’s not likely to happen without some kind of a shock that knocks employment off its current path. “Stable performance is expected to continue in the long term, barring any major negative macroeconomic events,” Fitch analysts said in the report.The report backs up the most recent view of the Bank of Canada, which said in its July Monetary Policy Report that “household imbalances, as measured by the ratio of household debt to income, have stabilized.” Stress testing has improved the quality of mortgage borrowing, while lower mortgage rates are supporting housing demand, the central bank said.Rasmussen said his firm has shifted its focus to watching jobless trends, which have been stable, “but if we started to see a pickup in unemployment, or the economy shifting in a way that unemployment was going to increase, that would certainly be something we’d be watching much more closely.”Fitch is charting the unemployment rate against charge-off levels. “If we were to see a pick up in unemployment as reported by the government, in conjunction with an increase in charge-offs, that would be a signal that consumers are having a more difficult time than they are currently,” Rasmussen said.Statistics Canada releases July job numbers on Aug. 9. The country’s unemployment rate climbed to 5.5% in June, after reaching a four-decade low of 5.4% in May.To contact the reporter on this story: Chris Fournier in Ottawa at cfournier3@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Theophilos Argitis at targitis@bloomberg.net, Divya Balji, David ScanlanFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Bloomberg

    Recipe for Most Diverse Economy Starts With Steel and Chocolate

    (Bloomberg) -- Terms of Trade is a daily newsletter that untangles a world embroiled in trade wars. Sign up here. Pennsylvania edged out Texas to claim the title of America’s most diverse state economy.Bloomberg’s inaugural “Economic Diversity Index” shows Pennsylvania is a lot more than U.S. Steel Corp. and Hershey’s chocolate. The variety within the nation’s sixth-largest state economy puts it ahead of silver- and bronze-medalists Texas and Colorado.To access full data set the index, click HERE.Bloomberg analyzed the contribution to gross domestic product by industry and government in all 50 states to create the diversity index. It’s modeled on the Herfindahl-Hirschman method, a mathematical measure used to detect monopoly in marketing and biodiversity in ecosystems. Theoretically, scores can range from 0 -- representing maximum diversity -- to 1, which signals single-industry domination. The lower the score, the more well-represented the sectoral GDP.A diverse economy can help build resiliency against market fluctuations and trade vagaries, whether global or domestic. The index can be an indicator of which states -- and their workers and government tax coffers -- are best insulated from (or exposed to) sudden swings in a single industry, company or even aggregate demand.Real estate was the largest GDP component in 20 states in 2018, with Hawaii’s economy getting the highest proportion (21%) of its output from related activities. A decade earlier, the property sector was the top industry in just 10 states, reflecting volatility from the great recession. From 2008 to 2014, the No. 1 spot was held by the “government” sector.Manufacturing was supreme in 16 states, with Indiana’s proportion highest at 28%, making the state most dependent on production at factories and plants. Meanwhile, the Hoosier state had the smallest portion of GDP from government (9%) and second-lowest from real estate (9.7%).“Indiana maintains the highest employment share in manufacturing in the U.S.,” Ryan M. Brewer, associate professor of finance at Indiana University, said in a report on the state’s economy. That’s an advantage when the U.S. economy is strong, he wrote, adding that the main causes of current uncertainty are “retaliatory” tariffs related to trade conflicts and “the opioid crisis,” which has tightened the state’s labor market and raised health care costs.Three states -- Delaware, New York and South Dakota -- counted finance and insurance as their largest industries. Bottom-ranked Delaware was the only state where a single sector accounted for more than 30% of annual GDP. In contrast to the concentration in Delaware was the balance in Pennsylvania: real estate (12.2%), manufacturing (11.9%) and health care (9.9%).“Pennsylvania’s proximity to large population centers and more affordable real estate remains fertile ground,” Toronto-Dominion Bank said in a recent research note. “Health care has been leading job creation for the past half-decade,” while “Pittsburgh is in the process of making the transition from steel city to tech town.”“Big government” was the No. 1 component in eight states, topped by New Mexico (23%), whose overall 46th ranking underscores the benefits of a balanced economy. Excluding government contributions to GDP, Colorado would rank No. 1 in economic diversity, followed by Texas and Pennsylvania.IdiosyncrasiesResource-rich North Dakota ranked 5th overall, as the benefits of its mining industry had “spillover” effects throughout the state. Young adults moved to the state following the fracking boom.“Higher incomes increased demand across many sectors, though few had the sustained growth and expansion of extractive industries,” said David Flynn, an economics professor at the University of North Dakota. Mining revenue has contracted 40% since its peak of $10 billion in 2014. North Dakota was the only state to see a decline in its median age this decade, from 37 years in 2010 to 35.2 in 2018.Wyoming placed 44th in the nation, and was the only state where mining/energy was the top industry (20%).Alaska earned the highest proportion from transport (13%), reflecting its vast and remote geography. And Nevada led in two categories -- accommodation/food (13%) and the arts/entertainment (3.2%) -- as hotel-casinos lured tourists and gamblers, many of whom took time out to see shows by singer Celine Dion, magicians Penn & Teller and comedian Carrot Top.Washington, home to Microsoft Corp. and Amazon.com Inc., was the only state where the information sector was the largest contributor (13%) to GDP. The benefits of that fast-growing industry helped Washington achieve the fastest economic expansion in 2018 among the 50 states -- though it ranked only 31st in the diversity index.America’s biggest economy, California, ranked 30th in the Economic Diversity Index, in part due to its oversized real estate and information sectors which jointly contributed 27% to its $3 trillion GDP in 2018, eclipsing the 19% level for the nation. The dichotomy of industry concentration was also apparent in New York. The third-largest state economy and headquarters to 60 Standard & Poor’s 500 companies - 20 of which are financial giants, was ranked 40th in diversity. The financial service sector grew 73% in the past decade - fastest in the U.S. economy. New York accounted for 27% of that growth.To contact the reporters on this story: Lee Miller in Bangkok at lmiller@bloomberg.net;Wei Lu in New York at wlu30@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Alex Tanzi at atanzi@bloomberg.net, Chris MiddletonFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Pound Seen Hitting 34-Year Low If Johnson Drags U.K. to No-Deal
    Bloomberg

    Pound Seen Hitting 34-Year Low If Johnson Drags U.K. to No-Deal

    (Bloomberg) -- The pound will tumble to the lowest level since 1985 if the U.K. leaves the European Union without a deal, a prospect that looks more likely now than six months ago, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts.There is now a 30% chance that Britain will exit the bloc in October without a divorce agreement, the poll of 13 banks showed. That’s more than three times the level from a similar survey in February. Such an outcome would drive down sterling by more than 9% to $1.10, a level not seen in 34 years, according to the median response.The latest survey also shows that with just under three months until the Brexit deadline, the possibilities remain open. Strategists assign equal probabilities to a no-deal exit, a further delay to the departure date as well as the prospect of a general election being called before Oct. 31. A deal being struck by the deadline is seen as the least likely outcome with just a 15% chance.“It feels very much that the market is now fully on board with a hard Brexit risk rising and rising,” said Luke Hickmore, a money manager at Aberdeen Standard Investments. “The risk of course is that the smell of a currency crisis will start to rise. I was working in 1992 during Black Wednesday and do not want to see that shambles all over again.”Sterling tumbled nearly 10% during the week of Black Wednesday in September 1992, when the U.K. was forced to withdraw from the European exchange-rate mechanism.‘Moment of Circularity’The pound has slid almost 7% since the U.K. deferred the original end-March Brexit deadline, to about $1.2140 on Friday, with investors pricing in higher odds of a disorderly Brexit after the ruling Conservative Party’s leadership contest ended with the election of Brexiteer Boris Johnson. A sterling slump to $1.10 in a no-deal scenario would mark a return to levels last seen during the dollar bull run of 1985.Should sterling slide toward those levels again, focus will be on how the Bank of England will support the currency -- but the central bank said Thursday that it was “highly unlikely” it would intervene. Governor Mark Carney said a change in the value of sterling was “part of the shock-absorbing function”.Johnson issued an ultimatum to the EU this week, saying he would not meet the bloc’s leaders for talks unless they shift their position. While there is no majority support in Parliament for a no-deal Brexit and lawmakers have said they would seek to block Johnson from pursuing this outcome, strategists see a risk that it happens by accident.“We’re in this peculiar moment of circularity in the Brexit echo chamber,” said Ned Rumpeltin, European head of currency strategy at Toronto-Dominion Bank. “The risk, of course, is that both sides become completely entrenched and unable to escape from the corners each has backed itself into.”Election RiskThe other possibility worrying investors is that Johnson will call a general election. The pound could fall to $1.19 in this scenario, with recent polling suggesting the outcome of a vote may not return a majority for the Conservatives, according to electoral analyst John Curtice.It’s not all bad news though. If a no-deal Brexit can be avoided, a delay or a deal are the most positive outcomes for the pound, with the former seen pushing the currency up to $1.26 and the latter to $1.33. BlackRock International’s Rupert Harrison sees the pound having an even bigger jump on a deal, though it isn’t his base case.“Any negotiated outcome that can get through the House of Commons is a big upside surprise,” said Harrison, a portfolio manager and chief macro strategist at BlackRock. “We certainly think we can see cable up through $1.40” in such a scenario, he said.\--With assistance from Anooja Debnath and Hayley Warren.To contact the reporters on this story: Charlotte Ryan in London at cryan147@bloomberg.net;John Ainger in London at jainger@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Ven Ram at vram1@bloomberg.net, Anil VarmaFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Gold Drops as Investors Try to Make Sense of ‘an Unclear Fed’
    Bloomberg

    Gold Drops as Investors Try to Make Sense of ‘an Unclear Fed’

    (Bloomberg) -- Gold fell for a second day, while sustaining its hold above $1,400 an ounce, after the Federal Reserve signaled it probably won’t embark on a lengthy easing cycle following the first U.S. rate cut since the financial crisis.On Wednesday, the bank pared the target range for the benchmark rate by a quarter point, a move that was widely expected. Still, markets were whipsawed on remarks from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who struggled to define the path ahead. Two Fed rate-setters dissented.“The Fed poured cold water on the market and we are seeing a reversal in most asset classes, gold included,” said Howie Lee, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. “Overall, it appears that the Fed is not entirely sure of its future policies in the near-term,” he said, adding: “An unclear Fed means confused markets, and I expect volatility to be high in the near term.”Gold is facing a setback after rallying in recent months to a six-year high as central banks globally signaled that looser monetary policy is needed to boost growth. Powell said the quarter-point reduction amounted to a “mid-term policy adjustment,” fueling speculation the central bank is not necessarily at the start of an easing cycle, but he also said the Fed hasn’t ruled out further cuts. A gauge of the dollar rose to the highest in two months.“Gold had become somewhat overbought in the short term and was due a correction,” said Mark O’Byrne, research director at GoldCore, adding that he sees gold falling as low as $1,350. Still, “given the uncertain political and economic backdrop and growing demand globally, we expect this selloff to be short and relatively shallow.”The implied rate on January fed funds futures, an indication of where the market sees the central bank’s key rate at year-end, rose to 1.77%, from 1.72% before the Fed decision. That’s less than the Fed’s decision Wednesday to lower the target range for the benchmark rate to 2%-2.25%.Data from the 1980s to date show that once the market prices in lower borrowing costs within 30 days of a Fed decision, “the market has its way more often than not — suggesting that gold could still remain supported,” TD analysts including Bart Melek said in a note to clients Thursday.Gold futures for December delivery declined 1.3% to $1,419.70 an ounce at 10:16 a.m. on the Comex in New York. In July, the precious metal hit $1,454.40, the highest intraday since May 2013. Silver futures dropped 2% to $16.075 an ounce, while platinum and palladium also fell.While the initial gold market reaction may be to sell off early this month, the outcome is “largely neutral” for the precious metal at current levels, Citigroup Inc. said in a note. The bank maintained its third-quarter average price forecast of $1,425 and its zero-to-three month point-price target of $1,450.Investors will now seek further clarity from the Fed, as they weigh fresh government data showing U.S. manufacturing activity deteriorated in July to an almost three-year low alongside rising jobless claims.\--With assistance from Justina Vasquez.To contact the reporters on this story: Ranjeetha Pakiam in Singapore at rpakiam@bloomberg.net;Rupert Rowling in London at rrowling@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Phoebe Sedgman at psedgman2@bloomberg.net, Steven Frank, Luzi Ann JavierFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Bitcoin Near Turning Point as Bearish Signs Abound After Rally
    Bloomberg

    Bitcoin Near Turning Point as Bearish Signs Abound After Rally

    (Bloomberg) -- Bitcoin may be closer to a turning point as cryptocurrencies struggle with greater scrutiny and bearish signs pile up.Some technical indicators for the world’s largest digital coin have been pointing to further losses. It has broken below its 50-day moving average support, which could signal the end of a recent uptrend that brought it close to $14,000 at the end of June. Bitcoin has also fallen under the lower limit of the GTI Vera Band indicator, which measures up and down trends, and is trading around $9,575 as of 12:16 p.m. in New York.Bitcoin “stands at a key technical juncture,” Matt Maley, equity strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., wrote in a recent note. Greater regulatory scrutiny “will become an even more prominent issue (much more prominent) once we move past the summer recess for Congress and into the meat of the 2020 election cycle.”A spate of negative developments have sent cryptocurrencies lower this month, including fallout from Facebook Inc.’s plans to launch its own stablecoin called Libra. Lawmakers lambasted David Marcus, who leads the company’s blockchain team, during back-to-back Congressional testimonies earlier this month, citing trust and privacy issues, among other things. The social media giant’s crypto launch comes at an inopportune time: the U.S. Justice Department announced plans to scrutinize big tech platforms following criticism that some companies have become too big and too powerful.“It’s a new product. It’s much different from most new products,” said JJ Kinahan, the chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everybody, including regulators, are trying to figure out the best way to roll this out to protect people, keep it something that’s viable but keep it from being the Wild West.”And last week, the Internal Revenue Service warned more than 10,000 cryptocurrency holders that they may be subject to penalties for skirting taxes on their investments. Bitcoin has fallen about 20% this month. Peer coins have also retreated -- Litecoin has dropped more than 25% in the same period, while Ether is down close to 32%.A Senate banking committee will hold a hearing Tuesday titled “Examining Regulatory Frameworks for Digital Currencies and Blockchain.”\--With assistance from Kenneth Sexton.To contact the reporter on this story: Vildana Hajric in New York at vhajric1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeremy Herron at jherron8@bloomberg.net, Dave Liedtka, Rita NazarethFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • TD Goes ‘Extremely Local’ in Quebec Investment Banking Push
    Bloomberg

    TD Goes ‘Extremely Local’ in Quebec Investment Banking Push

    (Bloomberg) -- To lead investment banking in Quebec, Toronto-Dominion Bank has turned to a francophone with an engineering degree who once sold tractors to dairy farmers.Abe Adham is about three months into his new job as head of investment banking in Quebec for TD Securities, succeeding Martine Irman as she prepares to retire. He’s relying on “an extremely local presence” to win more business from Quebec companies in what he sees as a very active mergers-and-acquisitions market poised to surpass last year’s levels.Quebec companies were involved in 309 announced acquisitions valued at $24.1 billion in the first half of the year, putting them on pace to surpass the 655 deals valued at $39.1 billion for all of 2018, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Adham said the economic environment is strong and he’s seeing “lots of activity and positivity” in Quebec.“It’s going to be a very strong year,” Adham, 43, said in an interview at his Montreal office. “The Quebec economy is doing well and companies here continue to do well and, whether it’s private or public, the mood is actually great.”Adham joined TD Securities in 2007 during the firm’s build-out of its Montreal office. Born and raised in Paris by parents who fled Lebanon’s civil war in the 1970s, he came to Canada in the mid-1990s to study engineering at McGill University. He joined tractor maker John Deere after graduation, and initially toiled in Saskatchewan before relocating to Quebec’s Eastern Townships to manage his own dealership while pursuing a master’s degree in business administration at Universite de Montreal. He later went overseas to attend London Business School for a masters in finance, before returning to Montreal and joining TD.TD Securities has about 125 full-time Montreal employees in investment and corporate banking as well as trading, built up over a dozen years to chase business and build relationships with companies in the French-speaking province.“It’s important to have boots on the ground here,” Adham said. “Quebec is a tightly knit business community, and so we’re there, we’re present and we’re involved.”Adham is bullish about Quebec’s economic prospects and TD’s dealmaking opportunities as companies outgrow the local market and look beyond for expansion, a situation he said is stimulating acquisitions and financing activity.Quebec’s economy outperformed all other Canadian provinces last year with estimated growth of 2.6%, a gain that outpaced even Ontario, Canada’s most populous province and its economic engine, for a second straight year.U.S., Europe“The moods of management and boards are quite positive,” Adham said. “People are looking to grow and we’ve seen them try to grow outside the boundaries of Quebec and Canada -- some are growing in Europe, some are growing in the United States.”Acquisitive companies include convenience-store owner Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc., pension-fund manager Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec and CGI Inc., an information-technology services firm. Quebec is home to other giants, in industries from communications and infrastructure to transportation and energy, including Air Canada, the country’s largest airline; media firm Quebecor Inc.; and engineering firm SNC-Lavalin Group Inc., as well as independent power producers Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. and Boralex Inc.Infrastructure and renewable energy are among the industries in Quebec busiest for M&A at the moment, Adham said, though he’s also seeing heightened activity in areas including communications, food and agriculture, and technology.Montreal also has a thriving technology scene that could draw investment-banking interest. Lightspeed POS Inc. in March raised C$240 million ($184 million) in Canada’s biggest technology initial public offering since 2010. Unity Technologies, which makes gaming software, plans to add 450 jobs in the city, also home to offices of game developers including Ubisoft Entertainment SA, Square Enix Holdings Co.’s Eidos subsidiary and Fortnite creator Epic Games Inc.“Tech companies in Quebec right now are getting a lot of attention and a lot of money from large institutions and pension funds,” he said. “I expect that to continue.”To contact the reporter on this story: Doug Alexander in Toronto at dalexander3@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Michael J. Moore at mmoore55@bloomberg.net, ;David Scanlan at dscanlan@bloomberg.net, Daniel Taub, Steve DicksonFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Bloomberg

    Canada’s Trade Surplus Likely Short Lived Amid Weaker GDP Growth

    (Bloomberg) -- Data due this week will probably show Canada’s merchandise trade balance swung back into deficit, as export strength is tested by the auto sector and energy bottlenecks.Economists in a Bloomberg survey expect a C$300 million ($228 million) deficit for June on Friday, after a surprise surplus a month earlier. Gross domestic product figures for May, due in a separate release Wednesday from Statistics Canada, are expected to show a monthly expansion of just 0.1%.The trade numbers will highlight how Canada’s exporters are faring amid global uncertainty, as tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump continue to hamper business investment globally. Canada posted an unexpected trade surplus in May as non-energy export volumes jumped over 4.4%, the most since 2015, driven primarily by motor vehicles, a notoriously volatile sector.“Export strength was broad-based in May, with real exports higher in 10 of 13 categories reported by Statistics Canada,” said Robert Both, a macro-strategist at Toronto-Dominion Bank. However, “with further gains in energy products unlikely due to curtailment and transportation bottlenecks, we look for a giveback in non-energy exports to drive a decline in export volumes for June,” he said.Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, told investors last week that “a promising start to the second quarter will be dented by May’s flat GDP growth figure.” That means he’ll need to see how third-quarter indicators play out before deciding whether to move forward his call for a Bank of Canada rate cut in the first half of next year.Both and his colleagues at Toronto-Dominion are expecting GDP growth of 0.2% to mask “a sharp divergence between goods and services; goods output will benefit from a rebound in manufacturing while an outsized drop in wholesale trade will weigh on services.” Accordingly, second-quarter growth of slightly lower than 3% will keep the central bank “on the sidelines as it awaits more clarity.”\--With assistance from Erik Hertzberg.To contact the reporter on this story: Chris Fournier in Ottawa at cfournier3@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: David Scanlan at dscanlan@bloomberg.net, Stephen WicaryFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Bond Traders Eye Johnson, Brexit as BOE Decision Takes Back Seat
    Bloomberg

    Bond Traders Eye Johnson, Brexit as BOE Decision Takes Back Seat

    (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of England’s policy announcement next week will once again be overshadowed by Brexit for U.K. investors.Gilts are headed for a third monthly rally ahead of the central bank’s policy decision due on Thursday, when it will also publish its quarterly inflation report. However, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s arrival -- and his immediate Brexit deadlock with the European Union -- mean the bank is unlikely to impede the rally in gilts by hinting at interest-rate increases to curb inflation.Gilts still offer positive yields with their returns dwarfing those on German bunds and French debt. The securities are gaining further support from the risk of no-deal Brexit, which flared after Johnson appointed Brexiteers to his cabinet and already hit a roadblock with Brussels over the Irish backstop.“The Bank of England at this stage has taken a back seat,” said Pooja Kumra, European rates strategist at Toronto Dominion Bank. “Gilts are likely to see support from uncertainty around Brexit, as well as the upcoming support from BOE reinvestment in September.”The yield on U.K. 10-year government bonds has fallen 14 basis points to 0.69% this month, having declined 50 basis points since the start of May. Kumra sees gilt yields pushing lower still if the U.S. Federal Reserve delivers a rate cut next week. A no-deal Brexit could see yields edging close to 0.50%, she said.To contact the reporter on this story: Charlotte Ryan in London at cryan147@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Ven Ram at vram1@bloomberg.net, William ShawFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Here's Why I Think Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSE:TD) Is An Interesting Stock
    Simply Wall St.

    Here's Why I Think Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSE:TD) Is An Interesting Stock

    Some have more dollars than sense, they say, so even companies that have no revenue, no profit, and a record of...

  • Reuters

    CANADA STOCKS-TSX falls as materials drop on lower gold prices

    Canada's main stock index fell on Thursday, as shares of precious metal miners dropped after gold prices fell on a strong reading of inflation in the United States. * At 9:37 a.m. ET (1337 GMT), the Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX Composite index was down 17.37 points, or 0.1%, at 16,545.92. * The energy sector climbed 0.2% after oil prices hit a six-week high as oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico were evacuated ahead of a storm, while an incident with a British tanker in the Middle East highlighted tensions in the region.

  • TD Bank injunction against Vernon Hill tossed in copyright case
    American City Business Journals

    TD Bank injunction against Vernon Hill tossed in copyright case

    In a split decision, the court also found that TD retained copyright interest in a manuscript Hill originally wrote when serving as Commerce Bancorp CEO for a book he published in 2010.

  • Citigroup, Goldman Sachs Lead These 6 Bank Stocks To Buy And Watch
    Investor's Business Daily

    Citigroup, Goldman Sachs Lead These 6 Bank Stocks To Buy And Watch

    With dividends and share buybacks announced after passing annual Fed stress tests, Citigroup stock and Goldman stock lead six bank stocks to buy and watch.

  • Bloomberg

    Ford, TD Bank Files Found Online in Cloud Data Exposure

    (Bloomberg) -- Attunity Ltd., a company that manages and safeguards data, left internal files exposed on the internet for clients including Ford Motor Co., and the Toronto-Dominion Bank, in the latest example of sensitive information being publicly accessible on the web. The incident revealed passwords and network information about Attunity as well as emails and technology designs from some of its high-profile customers. Researchers at UpGuard Inc., a cybersecurity company, found more than a terabyte of data left unsecured by Attunity last month on Amazon Web Services cloud-computer servers, according to a report they published Thursday.Attunity is a data custodian that helps integrate clients’ information stored in various places so it can be analyzed easily. The company, based in Kfar Saba, Israel, is an “Advanced Technology Partner” of Amazon.com Inc.’s cloud division. Yet Attunity didn’t configure its cloud storage so it was locked to the public and left all of the data visible in plain text, Upguard said. The failure is similar to an incident Bloomberg News reported in April when digital platform Cultura Colectiva openly stored 540 million records on Facebook Inc. users in Amazon’s cloud.Attunity’s data buckets included files about Ford’s information-technology architecture and details on internal project plans. Documents attributed to TD Bank included invoices, agreements between the companies, and files about the type of technology solution Attunity was configuring for the bank. There was also log-in information for a database Attunity created when it was trying to sign Netflix Inc. as a client in 2015. Netflix downloaded a demo of an Attunity tool that could have helped the streaming company switch databases, but never became a customer, according to a Netflix spokeswoman. The centerpiece was a large collection of Attunity files including administrative and employee passwords to various systems, extensive employee email backups, a roadmap to the company’s virtual network and personal information about Attunity’s employees. The widespread presence of login credentials swelled the potential harm of the data leak, according to UpGuard. “It’s a category of data breach we refer to as a keys-to-the-kingdom exposure,” said Chris Vickery, director of cyber-risk research at UpGuard. So far, UpGuard said it had no evidence that any bad actors took advantage of the information when it was accessible online. Attunity removed public access to the buckets the day after UpGuard informed the company about the breach in May, but it took several weeks before Attunity asked the cybersecurity company more detailed questions about the data exposure, according to Vickery. Attunity said current evidence indicated UpGuard was the only entity that accessed the data.“We are still in the process of conducting a thorough investigation into the issue and have engaged outside security firms to conduct independent security evaluations,” Derek Lyons, a spokesman for Attunity’s parent company, Qlik Technologies Inc., said in a statement. “Attunity customers deploy and operate the software directly in their own environments, and therefore Attunity doesn’t store or host sensitive customer data. Upon becoming aware of the issue, Qlik applied its security standards and best practices to the Attunity environments, including monitoring by Qlik’s 24x7 security operations center. We take this matter seriously and are committed to concluding this investigation as soon as possible.”TD Bank said it was also trying to assess the impact of the data exposure in a timely manner. “We are currently investigating this matter and, thus far, we have found no evidence that our customers' personal and financial information was exposed,” said Matthew Doherty, a spokesman for the bank. “We also have safeguards in place that are designed to help deter unauthorized access and use of our customers' personal and financial information.”Ford said it was never notified about a data exposure.  “We know the kind of information we provide to companies like Attunity, and we don’t believe there’s an issue,” said Monique Brentley, a spokeswoman for the carmaker.Netflix said Attunity never had access to the company’s technology systems.Attunity is relatively small, posting sales of $86.2 million for the year that ended Dec. 31, but it has a collection of big-name clients, such as drugmaker Pfizer Inc., Mercedes-Benz USA and Union Bank. In total, 44 members of the Fortune 100 and more than 2,000 organizations around the world use Attunity’s services, the company says on its website.The data-migration company partners with many IT companies, including Microsoft Corp., Alphabet Inc.’s Google Cloud, Oracle Corp., and International Business Machines Corp., according to its website. Attunity had been publicly traded until May, when Qlik bought the company for about $560 million. Radnor, Pennsylvania-based Qlik, a data-analytics company, is owned by private equity firm Thoma Bravo LLC.“It’s embarrassing for a company marketing services by saying we’ll help you use the cloud properly to make a mistake when they’re using it,” Adam Chlipala, a professor of computer science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said in an interview. “At the same time, finding these types of AWS errors in a complex environment is not always obvious.” Since Amazon has invested in more tools to spot these problems, he expects that “over time, there’ll be fewer and fewer of these data breaches.”UpGuard couldn’t confirm the full size of the Attunity information, which dated to September 2014 and included 750 gigabytes of compressed email correspondence. Backups of some employees’ accounts for Microsoft OneDrive – a file-hosting service – were also present. Besides system passwords, the researchers also found contact information for sales and marketing customers and targets, and project specifications.UpGuard also found personal information about 354 of Attunity’s employees, such as U.S. social security numbers, cash-and-stock compensation and dates of birth. Attunity had 298 employees through the end of last year, according to data from a regulatory filing.It would have been easy for Attunity to conceal the data from public view from the start, UpGuard’s Vickery said.“It’s a one-to-three click fix,” he said. “It illustrates that there were systemic issues with security.”To contact the authors of this story: Nico Grant in San Francisco at ngrant20@bloomberg.netJosh Eidelson in Palo Alto at jeidelson@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Andrew Pollack at apollack1@bloomberg.netFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Reuters

    U.S. banks clear first hurdle of Federal Reserve's annual stress test

    By Pete Schroeder WASHINGTON, June 21 (Reuters) - The 18 largest banks operating in the United States took the first step toward doling out capital on dividends, share buybacks and other investments on Friday, after clearing the first stage of their yearly health checks with the U.S. Federal Reserve. The central bank said lenders, including JPMorgan Chase & Co , Citigroup Inc, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp, would face losses of $410 billion under its most severe recession scenario ever, but levels of high-quality capital would still be well above regulatory minimums. (Reporting by Pete Schroeder Editing by Leslie Adler