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Taseko Mines Limited (TGB)


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1.23+0.05 (+4.24%)
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  • Have until late July to move TGB up to 1.32-34 price range. 2nd Quarter announcement likely July 20-26th and will beat last year's $3.2 million loss and beat est .02 share . But if TGB price is not closer to resistance area , not likely to have much follow thru up . Only hope for positive move with good news is Cu stays in profit range and TGB price at announcement is close to test high resistance, other wise wasted opportunity.
  • Below is a link to a Mid-Year Review of Copper dated June 14, 2017. It appears to be a discussion of probabilities and possibilities simply laid out. It seems to support my view of TGB potential long-term. TGB has projects in the pipeline targeted for maturity around the time frames discussed when demand is projected to increase and supply projected to decrease. Today HG=F shows Copper up 2 at $2.59 and holding its own. While the debt payoff was expensive, it wisely positions TGB to easily carry itself through to the date of higher copper demand and declining supply. TGB will be prepared to respond to the demand as the global price of copper rises. TGB share value is understated at $1.19 today as the potential of the company remains silent to many. TGB is a secret and it is interesting to me that TGB is not mentioned in the nine discussions in this article. http://marketrealist.com/2017/06/can-copper-reach-6000-per-metric-ton-in-2017/

    Can Copper Reach $6,000 per Metric Ton in 2017? - Market Realist
    While most metals tend to follow underlying demand-supply dynamics, according to some, copper prices also tend to reflect macro developments.
    marketrealist.com
  • Any investors out there who would extend their mortgage three years to pay off debt and some bad bets, and raise their interest rate 1% and pay 2 points for the refi?
    I hope you wouldn't feel like you needed to.
  • Final thought, Cu went above 1.60 and closed above 1.60 if Cu stays above for rest of month, should produce good quarter .03-.04 per share .
  • The major problem is long term analysis of a single commodity company is everything can change quickly
    with a price change in Cu. Bottom line is China controls the future of TGB until they mine gold or another metal. The same rating companies who raised grade for TGB would lower it tomorrow if Cu price dropped or China demand dropped . Short supply helps but that is not a good long term indicator. Having said that I agree with debt overshadowing and influencing price. If Cu price dropped as debt deadline approached , NO one would risk buying TGB. I disagree with 1.32 resistance, more accurate price is 1.34 with speculators waiting till close above 1.36 on vol. JMO I feel Cu action has been good for these reasons:
    first in range for TGB to make profit , second tested resistance many times with unfavorable China and economy data. Even after broke down to test low resistance 1.48-49 several times , it held even on the edge of cliff if it broke. Tells me investors have confidence in Cu and that is good news for Cu stocks .
    If TGB can get above resistance at same time Cu is in profitable range , a good quarter , third in row should
    produce more vol and interests , maybe even an upgrade to BUY. The recent upgrade from hold to buy was do to insider bankers knowing TGB floating bonds and they agreed with you that it was a good move
  • Below, I again share my thoughts and unofficial analysis as a TGB shareholder with a long-term vision. This is a follow-up to my note ten hours ago.

    The TGB corporate long-term debt was a concern of mine. The elimination of it through the refinancing in guaranteed senior secured notes is timely and is a stroke of management timing genius while Gibraltar production returns are high and long-term financing rates are low.

    On May 30, 2017 Moody’s affirmed TGB B3 CFR (corporate family rating) rating the US $250 million new guaranteed senior secured notes B3. Outlook remains stable. The redemption and close of the Senior Secured Notes relieves TGB from debt maturities until 2022. This allows for dedication of resources to bring the On-line Projects to maturity. Each of those projects offers great future value to TGB shareholders. Moody’s appears to project Debt to Equity Leverage to range 3x in 2017 rising to 7x in 2018 before leveling at 5x in 2019. These seem to be reasonable to me.

    Probability of Default rating appears to be nil based on Gibraltar cash flow plus current liquidity of C$ 150 million at March 31, 2017 per Moody’s and is obviously subject to ore grade quality and flow and costs containment. Another important variable is the (Moody’s volatile copper market range of US $2.30) to my range of US 2.60 or higher with HG=F Copper Futures, July 2017 at $2.58 {and historically at $2.80 on February 12, 2017 [which corresponds to and accounts for the TGB share price spike to $1.63 on high volume February 13, 2017]}.

    TGB Market Valuation is the total value of TGB outstanding shares determined by multiplying the current market price of one share times the number of shares outstanding.
    Market Value is $284.33 Million on June 01, 2017. US $250 million senior secured notes is favorable to the market value.
    When the market value of a company falls below the value of its debt, this signals that the resulting higher debt-to-equity ratio becomes unfavorable and may even increase stock volatility if shareholders are concerned that corporate management may be failing somewhere.

    History in the credit markets indicates that leverage is on the rise across the board. The ratio for companies in investment-grade indexes is around 2.8 times and 4.2 times for those on high-yield indexes. My sense is that TGB is believed to be investment grade. Based on market and production variables, Moody’s appears to expect TGB Debt to Equity to be in the 3x rising to 7x and leveling at 5x to be holding close to the range. It is my belief that when the global demand and variable market price of copper rises, the corporation is positioned to benefit handsomely based on Gibraltar’s sole contribution. When the other Projects on line are added to production, my projection is that the market makers will be attracted to TGB and its standing in the Commodities Copper Market will rise and the volume and share price will be commensurate.

    This corporation possesses a North America array of assets with great potential pending full development and the management expertise to create shareholder value and propel upward the corporate value and therefore the market price of the stock. It appears that there is not need to anticipate a situation prompting sales of assets to redeem debt.

    Your thoughts are welcome to further discussion.
  • The share price $1.32 Resistance Line is very strong. The refinancing of the Long Term Debt is a positive.
    Hopefully the Annual Meeting on next Thursday June 08, 2017 will provide input on the status
    of:
    Maintenance of Gibraltar's positive and rising revenue stream with Net Gibraltar Operations continuing as effectively and profitably as planned; ;
    Effective All Projects' Costs containment;
    Florence Arizona Project testing unfolding as planned;
    Possibility of Florence copper production before projected year 2020;
    Aley Niobium Project permits awarded to assure forward movement with stated goals;
    New Prosperity Project environmental and native population approval delays being resolved to assure forward movement; Benchmark time-table of projected dates for the different Projects to come on line and convert the resources into revenue to supplement the Gibraltar Operations revenue.

    My assessment is that the corporation and its management team are positioned to generate very positive cash flows and revenues, coupled with strategic cost management, such as to support the Four Properties' share valuation of US$8.17.
  • Canaccord Adams raised TGB from hold to buy. Hope they know something we don't
    Could be the Cu testing daily 2.60 or TGB having 2 months of profits with one more to make positive quarter
    report? Est ave price raised to 1.37 from 1.30 that is likely due to Cu not breaking support. Cu just has to trade in profitable range above 2.50 and TGB will move up
  • TGB has more manipulation the last min of trading than any stock. after hours trading 28 shares move stock down another .02 . Cu tested 2.60 at end and that is really what counts long term.
  • Regardless of why the huge vol over 3M , it changed the technical’s for TGB. Moving ave. on balance vol , trend line etc all positives due to huge vol day. Moved est target to 1.35 which happens to be break above resistance point and clear up trend. If Cu can get into 2.60-65 range again at the same time and test 2.67 resistance and up trend , then
    TGB can be set up for big move and any positive news could rocket this stock. Every time I start looking up to potential up moves, TGB gets kicked in the A..
  • For a Friday and Cu not acting well, low vol, it could have been a lot worse. Maybe the buy helped, with
    holders waiting for Monday and Cu up day to see if vol comes in. Lets hope
  • Apologies, but where did TGB recognize the $33M from silver stream sale in their quarterly financials? I read through looking for it but couldn't find it.
  • Looking more and more like big vol day was computer triggered. If Cu holds, TGB likely will not give back all gains.
    With lower vol back to manipulated openings and closings and penny moves all day . ok if TGB can make profit each month until July 1 , then good chance to keep the streak alive, and run up in anticipation.
  • May 6th Zacks DOWNGRADES TGB from Hold to SELL, May 8th Thomson Reuters UPGRADES TGB from Hold To BUY.
    Are these analysts evaluating the same mining company??
  • China is 800 lbs Gorilla when it comes to Cu. They use the majority of Cu in the world and control its price. Trouble is they also control news on their economy and rarely give an accurate accounting. Cases can be made longer terms for Cu going up or down the reality for TGB is Cu can stay where it is and TGB price will go up because they proved they can make a profit. Frankly, I like the Cu action and hope it gradually goes up and breaks into the 2.60 range . That would almost guarantee another profitable quarter and a higher price and give more confidence in stock with broader base of support for Cu. Good for TGB the vol happened on Monday and not Thurs , this stock price can be manipulated and Friday trading after a huge vol day , anything can happen.
  • $248.40 Cu tested lows twice today, and held , just barely . Wish Cu would calm down trading and swings and just move
    slowly up. Without vol TGB can't move up much , with low testing daily more wait and see for while. Vol decline and day long penny trades. Good news Cu bends but has not broken. Holds in place for two months now , but someone lowered next quarter earnings down to .02 likely expecting Cu decline. I think it will hold here and begin building base of support back to 2.60
  • Az BackBone
    if you compared both the information on this TGB stock and my auy stock......Taseko may move to my number #1 spot ..... Strong Buy ....Hold Long ..... this company has positioned and held very nicely compaired to others like them
    . Best Buy . .@ $ 1.20 - $ 1.30 or lower
    .Hold-Long 2 years - 5 years
    Target Long Price @ $ 9.80 - $ 11.07

    ♡ $ ♡ $ ♡ $ ♡ $ ♡ $ ♡ $ ♡ $ ♡ $
    AZ Backbone.
    Top 5 Stock Picks
    Cost, Ba, Auy, Jnug, TGB ( Outperforms Surprise )
    ♡ $ ♡ $ ♡ $ ♡ $ ♡ $ ♡ $ ♡ $ ♡ $
  • AZ BackBone
    the signs are there I'm strong buying & holding for long. outperform, GOLD has shown many mixed results but going back to history.... this company is an outperform Strong Buy long hold.
  • this stock has moved up to my number two spot
  • AZ BackBone
    surprise investment & retirement is my goal