|Bid||136.77 x 1400|
|Ask||136.99 x 3000|
|Day's Range||136.54 - 138.70|
|52 Week Range||111.90 - 148.90|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||57.59|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||3.40|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.15%|
I listened to Leon Cooperman’s talk at an event hosted by the New York Alternative Investment Roundtable. There were a few members of the media present at the event and they decided that the most interesting part of Cooperman’s talk was his comments regarding the private equity industry. “I think it’s a scam personally” Cooperman […]
Gold is rare and people love it, so its price should always go up, right? But SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) has had an extended run that should slowly start to become less intense. So today's trade is GLD stock. The argument is not that it rose too much, because it still trails the S&P 500 year-to-date. The problem is that with the steepness of its wedge, its chart is vulnerable to dips.Source: Shutterstock This is nothing personal against the shiny metal, but nothing goes up in a straight line forever -- although the recent run in GLD, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) and iShares Silver Trust (NYSEARCA:SLV) was insane. Global investors chased those three up partly as a safe haven trade from geopolitical risk, and also because of the popular TINA acronym.Consensus is that there "there is no alternative" to buying U.S. Treasurys when global bonds yield negative rates. Not many are willing to buy investment vehicles that advertise guaranteed losses. So they buy U.S. bonds, gold and silver instead. This means GLD came along for the ride.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips There is Danger in Those Golden GLD Charts.There is no way I can quantify the value of gold. The stuff is in high demand and people love it. The only reason it has any value is because we say so. Furthermore, it is hard to extract and getting even rarer. Clearly the price should go up indefinitely.But the modern Wall Street is more predictable than in the past. These days machines do most of the trading, so the chart technicals have a lot of say. As bullish as gold story's is, GLD stock should correct. I am not calling for a complete collapse, but there are levels that need revisiting before any rally can proceed. * 7 Discount Retail Stocks to Buy for a Recession During the 2011 rally, experts called for gold prices to hit $2,200 per ounce. That marked the top and started a four-year correction. Furthermore, this rally merely brings gold to about the 50% retracement level of that correction. While I don't want to predict similar doom here, I expect GLD stock to revisit lower levels to build a better chart.Before you label me a perma-bear, I assure you that I prefer trading upside potential as it makes for happier and more positive attitudes. But the dip would give GLD the chance to build a better base for what ever future target it wants.A spike straight up leaves weak hands in control of GLD. So then at the sign of any trouble, the bulls become gutless and panic out of their positions. That is when trap doors open -- and the exit doors are never large enough to accommodate an orderly exit.In September, GLD stock corrected about 5% and is now is trying to shake it off. The short paid, but it is not yet clear that there is reason to stop shorting it here. If you are already short GLD, you can stay in it with proper stops. The Bottom Line on GLDFrom here, I expect GLD to head lower because it needs to retest $139 and $136 per share. This next statement will probably anger the gold bulls, but GLD stock should eventually fill the gap near $128 per share.In early June, the gold trade caught fire near $127. GLD rallied 16% from there with no retracement. Then September's dip came. There will be a fight between buyers and sellers near $140 for the control of the price action, so I expect a stall there.Next week is important for GLD. The Federal Reserve will make its decision on rates. If the Fed doesn't disappoint Wall Street then the markets will make new highs and it will be hard for gold bulls to maintain the rally. Conversely, if Fed Chairman Jerome Powell causes another equity market dip, then shorting GLD stock will be difficult.Since I can't control the headlines, I revert to charts to make decisions. The SPDR Gold Shares chart suggests that staying short here until the $140-zone fight ends is the right thing to do.Nicolas Chahine is the managing director of SellSpreads.com. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. Join his live chat room for free here. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 10 Big IPO Stocks From 2019 to Watch * 7 Discount Retail Stocks to Buy for a Recession * 7 Stocks to Buy Benefiting From Millennial Money The post Stay Short in SPDR Gold Shares ETF appeared first on InvestorPlace.
The SPDR S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) hit new all-time highs on Thursday. Who would have predicted that for the stock market today?Not many were looking for such a robust rally to take place over the past few trading sessions. But InvestorPlace readers were ready. They knew that the stock market was trading in a well-defined range throughout the month of August and they knew when that range resolved to the upside.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsOnce resistance gave way and we saw follow through from the bulls, that's when it was clear new highs were possible. In fact, we wrote: "Above resistance could send the S&P 500 back to 3,000, while a move below support likely brings up a test of the 200-day moving average."So what's causing this rally anyway? Markets liked the de-escalating tone between China and the U.S., even though there some reports say the trade war will not likely be resolved any time soon. More Quantitative Easing, Please?For those looking for more quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve, don't hold your breath. The Fed is scheduled to make its rate decision next week on Wednesday, Sept. 18. As it currently stands, the Fed Funds Rate is pricing in an 88.8% probability of a 25 basis point cut next week. The other 11.2% probability has the Fed keeping rates unchanged.Put simply, the U.S. is not in the economic position -- either with low growth or negative interest rates -- to warrant more stimulus. But the European Union is. * 10 Battered Tech Stocks to Buy Now The European Central Bank announced a 10-basis-point cut in its deposit rate to -0.5%, in-line with expectations. The ECB also announced that it will restart its QE program to the tune of $20 billion per month beginning Nov. 1. While ECB president Mario Draghi says there's only a low chance chance of an E.U. recession, those odds have increased.QE should be a boost, but it's concerning that it's needed after a near-decade of various policies. Movers in the Stock Market TodayIt was an exciting day in the stock market today, if not just because equities are flirting with their all-time highs. However, not all assets are moving favorably.While gold prices -- and the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) -- closed higher on the day, GLD finished well off its morning highs. The can be said for bonds too, via the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT). The fall in bonds helped pave the way for bank stocks to continue their rally on Thursday, even as they approach resistance.The Top Stock Trades column took a closer look at the bank stocks earlier today.What else was moving?Aurora Cannabis (NYSE:ACB) fell roughly 10% and hovered near its session lows in the stock market today. The decline came after the company reported its quarterly results, missing revenue expectations and showing margin pressure. The woes of the cannabis space continue.Shares of General Electric (NYSE:GE) fell 1.2%, but Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHGE) was making waves after the former became a seller of the latter.BHGE opened notably lower on the day and fell to $21.36. However, it finished higher by 1.5% at $22.63 despite GE announcing it will cut its stake from 50.3% to roughly 39.5% as it looks to raise capital.The IPO market remains a mixed bag, with the latest shake-up coming from SmileDirectClub (NASDAQ:SDC). Shares priced at $23, above the $19-$22 range. But that didn't please investors, as shares tumbled 27.5% in their debut. Ouch. Heard on the StreetShares of Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI) got off to a hot start in the stock market today. However, the stock only managed to climb 1% by the time the market closed. That's despite Nomura analysts upgrading the stock to "buy" and raising their price target from $49 all the way to $64. The target implies more than 16% upside from Wednesday's closing price.Wells Fargo analysts are ringing the bell on Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) and Deere (NYSE:DE). They downgraded both stocks from "outperform" to "market perform," assigning price targets of $170 and $143, respectively.Bret Kenwell is the manager and author of Future Blue Chips and is on Twitter @BretKenwell. As of this writing, Bret Kenwell did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 10 Battered Tech Stocks to Buy Now * 7 Strong-Buy Stocks Hedge Funds Are Buying Now * The 7 Best Penny Stocks to Buy The post Stock Market Today: Should Investors Expect More Quantitative Easing?Â appeared first on InvestorPlace.
The S&P 500 is flirting with new all-time highs. The recent rally has been fast, and some names have done better than others. Today's top stock trades center around the banks. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow 1: iShares TLT Bond ETFNo one seems to care about the buybacks, dividends and low valuations from the banks. But one big driver has been rates, and thus, bonds. So let's look at the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) first.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsThe TLT has demanded plenty of traders' attention since the beginning of August. That's when bonds began to explode higher to the upside, rallying from $132 to $148 in just a few weeks. * 10 Stocks to Sell in Market-Cursed September The ETF twice topped out in the $148+ area, and has now retreated in five of the past six sessions. Investors who are looking for a long trade in TLT may consider buying on a test of the 50-day moving average. That's a reasonable risk/reward area with $137.50 just below. Notice how the recent decline in TLT has helped pave the way for a run higher in the banks? If you're not trading TLT, that's great, but consider keeping the ETF up on the monitor for a clue on what's going on with the banks. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow 2: Bank of AmericaRemember a few weeks ago when we flagged the long trade in Bank of America (NYSE:BAC)? We liked this setup because of the reasonable risk/reward BAC stock was presenting buyers, as it bobbed near range support between $26 and $26.50.Now pushing toward $30, longs are likely considering booking some profits near current levels. I want to see if BAC stock can press into range resistance between $30.50 and $31. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow 3: CitigroupCitigroup (NYSE:C) has a very similar setup, bouncing off $61 range support and now trying to hurdle $70. If it can, it puts a retest of $72 on the table, with a possible run up to trend resistance (blue line). On the downside, longs will want to see the 50-day moving average hold as support. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow 4: JPMorganLike the two previous banks, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) held range support near $104. However, this one has a lot more "oomph" than the two above. Shares are already over $116 range resistance and making new highs. I'd love to see JPM continue higher, turning trend resistance (blue line) into trend support. At the very least though, see that $116 holds as support from here. Below could usher in a flush down to the 50-day moving average. Remember, as hot as some of these banks have been, they are still coming into or are near key resistance levels. In the past, these levels have held them in check, even when the news has been bullish. So stay disciplined, don't be greedy and let price guide your decision making -- not your bias! Resistance will either break and lead to higher prices or hold steady and send stocks lower. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow 5: Goldman SachsGoldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) has really struggled, but man has this one been strong over the past few days. * 10 Battered Tech Stocks to Buy Now Over $221 and a continuation rally can take hold. However, if it rejects GS, look to see how it responds to a test of the 50-day. If it attracts buyers, another $220 test is in the cards. If it fails as support or has a tepid response, uptrend support (purple line) could be in the cards. Bret Kenwell is the manager and author of Future Blue Chips and is on Twitter @BretKenwell. As of this writing, Bret Kenwell is long BAC and C. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 10 Battered Tech Stocks to Buy Now * 7 Strong-Buy Stocks Hedge Funds Are Buying Now * The 7 Best Penny Stocks to Buy The post 5 Top Stock Trades for Friday: A Bank Run in Play?Â appeared first on InvestorPlace.
Hedge funds aren’t what they used to be. They used to be exclusive investment vehicles where wealthy investors could generate double digit alpha with very little correlation to the major market indices. Nowadays most hedge funds don’t deliver uncorrelated returns at all and they generate minuscule returns after fees and expenses. I am not saying […]
Here is a look at the 25 best and 25 worst ETFs from the past trading month. Traders can use this list to find prospective candidates that have deviated too far from their longer-term trends, thereby serving as potential starting points for those looking to take on either short or long positions. Likewise, traders can also use this list to spot potential trend reversal opportunities that may offer a generous risk/reward. As always, investors of all experience levels are advised to use stop-loss orders and practice disciplined profit-taking techniques. To get access to all ETFdb.com premium content, sign up for a free 14-day trial to ETFdb.com Pro.
U.S. government bonds and related ETFs climbed Tuesday, with a key yield curve inverting to its worst level in over a decade, as equity markets retreated and investors turned to safety plays in response to the renewed risk-off sentiment. Among the best performers on Tuesday, the PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon US Treasury Index ETF (NYSEArca: ZROZ) advanced 2.6%, Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (NYSEARCA: EDV) gained 2.2% and iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) increased 1.5%. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year Treasuries were at 1.47% while yields on 3-month notes were at 1.97%.
The ranks of trade war victims are growing with every Trump tweet. Friday's bloodbath and this morning's upside reversal is simply the latest volatility seizure suffered by stocks. If the heightened uncertainty has left you wounded, you're in good company.Today we'll offer up four safe stocks to buy that have provided ample shelter from the storm. They all boast significant year-to-date gains, low volatility, and rock-solid technical trends. Furthermore, their status as safety plays was reaffirmed by their behavior on Friday.Two of them shot to the moon. The other two fell but much less than the S&P 500.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips * 4 Triggers That Could Kick Gold Into High Gear Let's take a closer look at these safe stocks. Utilities SPDR (XLU)Source: ThinkorSwim The Utilities SPDR (NYSEARCA:XLU) notched a new all-time high Friday at $62.46. The morning strength pushed its year-to-date gains to 18.4% before XLU finally succumbed to broad market selling into the close. On the technical front, it has a consistent uptrend complete with rising 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages.Aside from its beautiful price chart, XLU has two other dynamics going for it. First is its juicy 3.16% dividend yield. Now that the Fed has begun what could be a series of rate cuts, high dividend-paying stocks are becoming increasingly attractive. Second is its low volatility, defensive nature. Historically, the utility sector has held up well during recessions and offers lower day-to-day volatility than other sectors.Buy XLU and relish in the slow-moving, income-producing ride. iShares US Real Estate ETF (IYR)Source: ThinkorSwim The iShares US Real Estate ETF (NYSEARCA:IYR) shares many characteristics with XLU, including the above-average dividend yield and low volatility. Its current dividend yield is 3%, and at Friday's peak, its year-to-date gains were 24%.IYR is one of the most liquid real estate investment trusts in the market and has listed options if derivatives are your instrument of choice. It offers a diversified basket of over 100 real estate companies like Public Storage (NYSE:PSA), American Tower Corp (NYSE:AMT) and Equinix (NASDAQ:EQIX). All remain attractive safe stocks to buy as alternatives to a pure sector bet.To offer context on volatility for IYR, its beta is a lowly 0.59. XLU was even lower at 0.24. * 5 Stocks That Could Pop When the Trade War Ends Falling interest rates and investors desire for volatility reduction should continue to boost this safe stock for months to come. SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)Source: ThinkorSwim For traders looking to sidestep stocks altogether, I suggest looking to gold. Its safe-haven status has been questioned throughout the years, but there's no doubt it's been an effective diversifier in 2019. Year-to-date the yellow metal is up 19%, putting it on pace for one of its best years over the past decade.Its beta is -0.21, which reveals its inverse correlation to stocks as well as its extremely low volatility. Ever since June's breakout, GLD has acted extremely well on the technical front. Buyers have gobbled up every dip and chased every breakout. Friday's market beatdown brought buyers flocking into gold, reaffirming its popularity among safe stock seekers.GLD should continue to shine bright. iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas.Bond (TLT)Source: ThinkorSwim No list of safe stocks or safe investments would be complete without including treasury bonds. Given their almost perfect inverse correlation to stocks in recent months, they've been a perfect yin to the market's yang. The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas.Bond (NASDAQ:TLT) is up 19% year-to-date has one of the best-looking uptrends on the Street. The 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages are all stacked atop each other in bullish fashion. * 7 "Boring" Stocks With Exciting Prospects Last week's pullback offered a textbook buy the dip opportunity that ended with Friday's pole vault. Until stocks can right the ship, expect the gains to keep on coming for TLT.As of this writing, Tyler Craig held bearish options positions in TLT. Check out his recently released Bear Market Survival Guide to learn how to defend your portfolio against market volatility. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 7 "Boring" Stocks With Exciting Prospects * 15 Cybersecurity Stocks to Watch as the Industry Heats Up * 5 Healthcare Stocks to Buy for Healthy Dividends The post 4 Safe Havens From the Trade War appeared first on InvestorPlace.
The latest move in trade war led to higher demand for safe-haven avenues or lower risk securities. We have highlighted five such zones and their popular ETFs where investors could stash their money in an escalating trade war.
Published on August 21, the report stated that the SPY exchange-traded fund continues to be the largest portfolio hedging vehicle with total short interest of $40.3 billion and short interest as a percentage of float at 15.48%. Short sellers also targeted Bond ETFs this month, with the iShares iBoxx High Yield Corp Bond ETF (HYG), iShares iBoxx $ Inv Grade Corp Bond ETF (LQD), iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), and Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) seeing an increase of $1.5 billion in short interest. The financial technology and analytics firm pointed out that although there is one less fixed income ETF in the current top 20 most-shorted ETF ranking, short interest of the five that remain is $857 million larger than the six in January’s top 20.
This article was originally published on ETFTrends.com. After another tumultuous day Tuesday, only to rebound back Wednesday, the U.S. markets appears to be in a back and forth motion since it first sold off back in late July after comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The word recession is being tossed around quite a bit these days, but what should investors do with their money if a recession actually occurs? David Tice, the founder of David W. Tice & Associates, LLC said on CNBC, “Well there’s certainly a lot of unrest to the market here Michael, that it’s certainly possible that we could rally another 6-9 months, because we have Trump that does not want to see the market go down in front of the election, and we have Jerome Powell who seems to be on the side of trying to keep the market up.
Amid the trade war, weakening economic indicators, and the yield curve inversion, Jeffrey Gundlach believes the Fed has lost control of interest rates.
After a positive trading session on Monday for Wall Street, the threat of headlines remain. Last week, the sentiment went too bearish and was an opportunity to go long many great companies whose stocks were unduly punished. Here are a few tickers to watch going into tomorrow. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow: TLTLast week, investors piled into the U.S. bonds and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) spiked to new highs. But late in the week, the opportunity came from the sentiment in that trade; it went too bearish.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips * 7 Great Small-Cap Stocks to Buy The risk is now not that the TLT stock is too expensive, but the opportunity that originates from the recklessness of last week's trade. There was widespread consensus that U.S. bonds will continue to rally with absolute certainty. This is never correct, because if there was no risk then there should be no return.So the right trade was to short the TLT on Thursday when that rhetoric was prevalent. This opportunity is still there because the TLT left a lot of froth from its latest rip and can fill the gap to $136. The bet is that the TLT bulls became too complacent. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow: GLDSimilar to the TLT, investors piled into the precious metals like silver and gold so the bulls there also became too complacent. The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) is now overextended but this is not a call on the value of GLD. This is merely to say that too much love on the name right now.So again the trade was to start shorting the GLD stock last week. But on Monday we saw a continuation of the weakness so the trade is still on. Much like the TLT, GLD also left a lot of recent froth that could come out of the chart quickly.But since both the TLT and GLD trades are similar, I don't want to do both at the same time. Especially, if I am already long the equities in general. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow No. 3: UBERLyft (NASDAQ:LYFT) lock-up expires by tomorrow. But the better trade is to be long Uber (NYSE:UBER) for the next few years. The concept actually started last week. For all those who missed the IPO, the lows of last week were an opportunity to take another flyer on long bet on UBER stock.The thesis for that is not short term, however. This is a company that has the opportunity to be like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), which started its life as a book seller but now dominates several industries.UBER also started by moving people but now has several verticals already going and many more in potential. UBER freight is a leading candidate to become a cash cow. While mainstream investors criticize their profitability, they are missing the potential. Growth companies are supposed to spend a lot to grow a lot. Sure, UBER losses are massive but so are their addressable markets so it is unavoidable. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow No. 4: AAPLThere is no doubt that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has been the poster child of company success. Yet, AAPL stock never gets all the respect it deserves. AAPL is almost never a momentum stock like AMZN but there could be a move coming.In the next few days, I would watch for the break above the $218 per share neckline. This has been a cement wall of late and for good reason. $220 is the yearly point of control so the bulls and bears like to fight it out there and create congestion.So, if and once the AAPL bulls break above it then they will overshoot. Apple stock can then target $230 per share or higher.I know it sounds ridiculous but the charts paint a clear picture of the potential. So it's best to set sentiment aside and treat the opportunity with technical spin rather than emotional. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow No. 5: AMDAdvanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) has been the chip stock champion. But one can make the argument that it's the overall tech champ. At one time this honor went to Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) but no longer. Somehow AMD stock finished last year up 50% while the stock market was falling off a cliff.Here, AMD stock is again showing signs of a breakout. But since we are still in a headline trading mode, I cannot trust the politicians not to foil this potential as well. So patience will be a virtue and there are definitely important lines in the AMD short term chart to heed.While Monday the stock is up 2%, AMD is heading into a resistance zone. Onus is on the bulls to prove that they can reclaim it as footing. If so then the eventual upside target $37 per share of higher, but it won't be easy.Conversely, there are holes in the chart below and these gaps can exert downside pressure. Luckily, there is the short-term point-of-control zone around 29.5 that will lend support. Losing $28 would bring a bearish scenario but one I don't think will come alone. Meaning, if the markets hold this most recent bottom, then AMD lows are set for now. * 7 Great Small-Cap Stocks to Buy So I'd rather sell puts below than chase upside above while markets battle the headlines. For example I could have collected over $1.50 per contract for selling $26 November AMD puts.Nicolas Chahine is the managing director of SellSpreads.com. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. Join his live chat room for free here. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 10 Cheap Dividend Stocks to Load Up On * The 10 Biggest Losers from Q2 Earnings * 5 Dependable Dividend Stocks to Buy The post 5 Top Stock Trades for Tuesday: TLT, GLD, AAPL, AMD, UBER appeared first on InvestorPlace.
When the market is turbulent, investors often embark on a flight to safety. That means investors will pile into risk-off assets, such as Treasuries, gold and consumer staples. Indeed, this is exactly what has happened over the last month. While the S&P 500 is off more than 2% in the last month, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) is up 9%, and the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) is up 5%. And since Aug. 5, the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLP) has gained 5%.Source: Shutterstock Given that backdrop, one would assume a food and product packaging company like Sealed Air (NYSE:SEE) would also have benefited from this August flight to safety. It did, for awhile. At one point in early August, SEE stock price was up nearly 10% in August. But the stock has since given up most of those gains, and now SEE stock price is more than 5% off its August highs, while TLT, GLD, and XLP are all at or right next to their August highs.In other words, while SEE stock was initially thought of as a great risk-off investment in this stumbling economy and turbulent market, investors have since second-guessed the relative safety of Sealed Air stock.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsI totally get it. Ostensibly, SEE stock seems very stable, with a fairly attractive valuation and a steady yield. But at this point, it has optical issues which may keep SEE stock price relatively muted for the foreseeable future. * 7 Great Small-Cap Stocks to Buy As a result, I think Sealed Air stock is best left alone for now. Its fundamentals are strong enough that it's not a great short. Its optics are troubling enough that it's not a great long. In such a situation, the sidelines are the best place to hangout. Sealed Air's Fundamentals Are Pretty GoodThe fundamentals supporting SEE stock price are pretty good, and they're mostly favorable to the bull thesis.SEE is a global food and packaging company. Its business is pretty stable. No matter what the global economy is doing, the world is still going to have to transport staple food and goods. It's true that, as global economic activity slows, so will the trading of these goods. But the slowdown will be gradual, and it won't be that steep.Consequently, Sealed Air's performance over the past several years - a low-to-mid-single=digit-percentage revenue grower, excluding acquisitions, with slight margin expansion and low-to-high-single-digit-percentage EBITDA growth - will probably be largely duplicated over the next several years. Its growth will likely slow a bit as the global economy weakens. But Sealed Air should be able to grow its revenues at a low-single-digit rate over the next several years, on largely stable margins, which - when coupled with its buybacks of SEE stock - should produce high- single-digit-earnings per share growth.Sealed Air's EPS can reach somewhere around $4.80 by fiscal 2025. Based on a forward price-earnings multiple of 17, which is average for the packaged-goods sector, that implies a fiscal 2024 price target for SEE stock of over $80. Discounted back by 10% per year, that equates to a 2019 price target of about $50.SEE stock price is slightly above $40 today. Thus, the long term growth fundamentals currently say that Sealed Air stock is undervalued. The Optics Give PauseAlthough SEE stock is undervalued, the optics surrounding Sealed Air warrant this undervaluation for the time being. Specifically, there is an active SEC investigation overhanging Sealed Air which has created a lot of distractions. These distractions detract from Sealed Air's value as a risk-off investment during turbulent times.This SEC investigation has shifted into another gear in 2019. In May, Sealed Air was served a subpoena relating to a previously disclosed SEC investigation into the company's accounting practices. That additional subpoena has had an avalanche impact on the company.A month later, Sealed Air fired its CFO. Three months later, the company received a grand jury subpoena from a U.S. Attorney for documents related to the firing. A week after that, Sealed Air switched audit firms. And, a week after that, Upslope Capital Management, which was shorting Sealed Air stock, issued a report, citing the SEC investigation and accounting irregularities as two big reasons why it believed that SEE stock would head lower.Against the backdrop of all those distractions, Sealed Air's organic revenue growth has slowed to a multi-year low in 2019.In other words, SEE stock price is being weighed down by slowing growth trends against the backdrop of a ton of SEC/accounting noise that doesn't give investors confidence. Slowing growth plus a lack of confidence is not a winning combination.So despite SEE's favorable fundamentals, SEE stock price likely won't march meaningfully higher anytime soon. The Bottom Line on SEE StockIt's easy to look at SEE stock and see a stable consumer staples stock that should theoretically outperform during turbulent times. But that cursory analysis ignores the ugly optical risks overhanging the company. Those unfavorable optics will ultimately put a cap on near-term gains by SEE stock, making it unattractive for now.As of this writing, Luke Lango did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 10 Cheap Dividend Stocks to Load Up On * The 10 Biggest Losers from Q2 Earnings * 5 Dependable Dividend Stocks to Buy The post Sealed Air Stock Is Cheap, But Unattractive appeared first on InvestorPlace.
Treasury bond ETFs have been rallying as market volatility and growing concerns over the economy pushed yields on Treasury notes to new lows. Over the past month, the PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon US Treasury Index ETF (NYSEArca: ZROZ) advanced 19.3%, Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (NYSEARCA: EDV) gained 17.2% and iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) increased 12.1%. Meanwhile, yields on 30-year Treasury notes slipped to record lows of 1.92% mid-Thursday.
U.S. government bonds and notes -- treasuries -- have had a great run year-to-date. The longer-end of the so-called bond curve is represented by the iShares 20+ Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT), and for the year, this exchange-traded fund is higher by around 17%. While I personally think this bond rally can continue in coming quarters, in the near-term, the rally looks to be vastly overdone and a mean-reversion trade looks to be setting up for active investors and traders to feast on. Here's how you should approach the TLT ETF today.Source: Shutterstock When speaking to retail traders I often get the sense that they are not just confused but also scared by the bond market, and thus avoid following it, much less trade it. In reality, the bond market is not only a key driver of the stock market but it also dwarfs the stock market in size.Interest rates are key to any financial model and the backbone to financing activities not just for banks but also for corporations and governments around the globe. In other words, to ignore this market is to trade with blindfolds on, at best.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsTo yours truly, just like other asset classes such as stocks, bonds become most interesting for trading opportunities either when they break past meaningful technical levels, or reach extreme overbought or oversold readings. TLT ETF ChartsTo wit, in recent days, the TLT ETF on the multi-year chart reached its technical resistance highs from July 2016. This also coincides with historically vastly overbought readings from the MACD momentum oscillator at the bottom of the chart (both on the daily as well as the weekly charts). Also note that the year-to-date rally took place in an already steep up-trending channel (red parallels), out of which the TLT ETF went parabolic in recent days to reach the aforementioned resistance highs.Another way to look at overbought readings in the bond ETF's chart, or at least one way that market participants are increasingly getting nervous about the rally, is by noticing the implied volatility levels.At the bottom of this chart we see that implied volatility in recent days reached levels this ETF last saw in early 2018 and December 2018. Both times, as high implied volatility struck, bond prices ultimately either fell or stagnated for a few weeks.At this point, active investors and traders could look to short the TLT ETF around the $142 - $144 area. A first downside target is $138 and any further big rally spike would be a stop loss.My clients and I prefer to structure a trade in the highest probability manner, which, in this case, means selling a very specific options spread on the TLT ETF.In order to teach this special options trade I am holding a webinar for InvestorPlace readers on Thursday Aug. 15. Register here.Join Serge in an exclusive live webinar: The steady income options strategy. Register HERE. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 15 Growth Stocks to Buy for the Long Haul * 5 More Cloud Stocks With Plenty of Potential * 5 Clean Energy ETFs to Buy for 2019 The post Trade of the Day: The iShares Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Is Overbought appeared first on InvestorPlace.
Asian markets continue to bleed on increasing geo-political issues and slowing global economic growth. This, in turn, has been adding to the appeal of safe-haven ETFs.
The bond market reversed off multi-year highs on Wednesday after yields at many maturities hit multi-year lows, prompting a wave of bottoming calls on Wall Street and Twitter, but current price structure predicts at least one more rally wave before the group settles down and tops out. Bonds surged and yields fell after President Trump announced new China tariffs, set to go into effect on Sept. 1. China responded "in kind" by lowering the yuan fix, effectively dampening the financial impact of lost exports.
The U.S. stock market stepped back from the cliff’s edge with a key reversal Wednesday. Please click here for an annotated chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) For the sake of transparency, the second and third charts were previously published and no changes have been made.
“Adventurous” usually isn't a word used in relation to fixed income investing, but with Treasury yields tumbling in the U.S. and other major global central banks paring interest rates, it might require ...