118.06 -0.01 (-0.01%)
After hours: 4:48PM EST
|Bid||118.04 x 4000|
|Ask||118.06 x 1300|
|Day's Range||117.98 - 118.58|
|52 Week Range||111.90 - 128.59|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||3.23|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.15%|
The US jobs report for November was released today. The job additions came in at 155,000 as compared to consensus expectations of 198,000. While job additions in manufacturing remained strong at 27,000, construction net adds declined to 5,000.
As the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged over 600 points on Thursday, it was a bond bonanza in the fixed-income space as fears of a global economic slowdown permeated the capital markets. The shift ...
JEFF REEVES'S STRENGTH IN NUMBERS Over the last few years, diversification has become a dirty word on Wall Street. Amid consistent outperformance for large-cap tech stocks and a steady grind higher for “risk-on” equities in general, many investors have been conditioned to rely on a select group stocks and ignore the rest.
The Department of Labor is scheduled to release November US (VTI) employment data on December 7. The jobs report is a key indicator of the health of the US economy. For the past few months, financial markets have been reacting sharply to the US jobs report data due to its importance for the Fed in deciding rate hikes. Therefore, investors should understand the expectations for the report before the actual numbers come out. The jobs report is expected to confirm the strength of the US labor market.
On November 20, Jeffrey Gundlach told Reuters that investors haven’t shown an appetite for Treasuries (TLT) even though US stock markets have fallen. He said, “Obviously, it is not a deflationary bear market, otherwise you would have a bond rally.” Gundlach also advised investors to stay out of investment-grade bonds. Gundlach is concerned that the selling pressure in the US stock markets (IVV) (QQQ) wasn’t accompanied by higher volatility (VIX). Investors should note that the drop on December 4 was also accompanied by higher volumes and volatility.
Since the Fed might increase short-term rates by another 25 basis points at the December meeting, the yield curve (BND) could invert. The Fed has maintained that its future decisions will depend on market data (SPY) (IVV).
The threat of a flattening yield curve caused the capital markets to fret over an economic slowdown, but one trader saw a $1 million opportunity in the bond market, particularly the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) . In addition to trade war worries, rising Treasury yields came back to spook the markets where the 3-year note exceeded the 5-year note earlier this week, bringing back the notion that an inverted yield curve could be signaling a forthcoming recession. Worries over an inverted yield curve came back into focus on Tuesday as the Dow Jones Industrial Averaged declined 799 points.
During an interview with Reuters, DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said that the current inversion of the yield curve (TLT) could signal that the US “economy is poised to weaken.” He added that the inversion at the short-end of the Treasury yield curve implies that the bond market doesn’t think the Fed plans to raise interest rates through 2019. As we discussed in Yield Curve Inverts for the First Time since 2007: What to Know, the spread between five and three-year Treasury yields narrowed to -0.01 percentage points on December 5.
The yield curve mainly reflects bond market investors’ expectations of the Fed’s actions and future economic conditions. As the Fed may hike up short-term rates by another 25 basis points at the December meeting, the yield curve could invert. The Fed has maintained that its future decisions will depend on market data.
Usually, bond markets (BND) more accurately predict future market moves than do stock markets. Bond markets seem to be worried about future growth despite the recent 90-day US-China (SPY) (FXI) trade war truce. Euphoria from the truce seems to be wearing off, and investors are waiting for more details about how the talks between the two sides could progress. Today, stock markets opened lower, with the S&P 500 (SPY) down 0.62%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) down 0.70%, and the NASDAQ Composite (QQQ) down 0.55% as of 10:15 AM Eastern Time.
A yield curve tracks the yields of Treasury securities maturing at different times. The narrowing of the difference between these yields is sometimes referred to as the “flattening of the yield curve.” In contrast, shorter-term security yields becoming larger than longer-term security yields is referred to as “yield curve inversion” (BND). Yield curve inversion is a cause for concern for some bond traders and investors, as it has been an indicator of upcoming recessions.
U.S. investors received a red flag Monday when the yield on five-year Treasury notes dipped below the yield on three-year and two-year Treasury notes for the first time since 2007. This yield curve inversion is often a sign of an imminent economic recession, so here’s a look at what the latest bond market developments mean for investors. What Is An Inverted Yield Curve? The yield curve is a plot of the yields of bonds with equal credit quality but different maturity dates.
The answer depends on our understanding of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments. Now, some may argue that since Powell said “just below” neutral in his prepared remarks, he was trying to give a dovish message to the markets. On the other hand, what Powell said yesterday and what he said at the beginning of October may not be that different.
In a note published last week, Bank of America Merrill Lynch equity and quantitative strategist Savita Subramanian said, “We believe the peak in equities is likely before the end of 2019.” She expects equities to slow down next year as credit conditions tighten and earnings growth slows. As the Fed keeps tightening monetary conditions, equities (QQQ) (IVV), which are now accustomed to easy money, will find themselves in a difficult situation.
The Fed Is Going Schizophrenic, Jekyll Highlighted but Hyde Ignored Yesterday’s Federal Reserve blurb that was picked up by the markets causing a sharp spike upward had to do with Chair Jay Powell’s remarks on current interest rates being “just below neutral.” Meaning that Powell for the first time has acknowledged the possibility that the […] The post Market Morning: Mixed Fed Signals, Deutsche Bank Raided, Altria & Juul Talk, Yields Smashed appeared first on Market Exclusive.
The OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) has said that global economic growth has peaked. It lowered its growth forecast for global GDP (gross domestic product) to 3.5% for 2019 from 3.7%. It said that trade tensions have already erased 0.1–0.2 percentage points from the global GDP this year, and if the United States hikes tariffs on Chinese products to 25%, economic growth could fall to ~3% in 2020 from the current estimate of 3.5%.
As chances of a Fed rate hike in December are pretty high and can cause some turmoil in the markets, these ETF areas could provide cushion to investors.
Among this year’s most popular fixed income exchange traded funds are low and ultra-short duration fare, but a new survey indicates investors are revisiting bonds with longer-dated maturities. “Bond investors ...
President Trump has made it clear time and again that he is not happy with the Federal Reserve raising rates (TLT) so quickly. Usually, presidents don’t interfere or comment on the Fed’s decisions. The Fed is seen as an independent authority, which is important to maintain economic stability.
Could Gold Be the Best Bet amid Increased Economic Uncertainty? The Federal Reserve is predicting growth to slow to 2.5% next year before slowing down further to 2.0%. This data becomes even more disappointing given the fact that the investments should have ideally risen given the tax cuts implemented by the current administration.
During the third quarter, gold’s price (GLD) fell ~5%, dipping below the psychologically important level of $1,200 per ounce it touched in August.
Could Gold Be the Best Bet amid Increased Economic Uncertainty? The Fed’s interest rate hikes and outlook, trade war concerns, and the better US market (SPY) (QQQ) performance have been the key factors behind the dollar’s strength. The Federal Reserve has already raised the rates three times this year and is expected to raise them for the fourth time in December.
Gold prices (GLD) saw their first monthly gain in the last seven months in October when prices rose by 2.1%. Gold prices are down by 7.4% YTD, and they are down 10.6% from their April peak. While gold prices seemed to have lost their safe-haven status as they kept on falling even amid all the geopolitical, trade, and emerging market tensions, October has reinstated that appeal to some extent.
BAML (Bank of America Merrill Lynch) conducted a survey that polled 225 global investors with $641 billion in total assets under management between November 2 and November 8.