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Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. (TNXP)

NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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1.0600+0.0900 (+9.28%)
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  • M
    MichaelM
    Saw the Motley Fool article this morning. Really nothing that we did not know. Usually Cory Renauer
    is taking positions on both sides but this was a decidedly negative article. If you read between the lines, however, he is not saying investors that buy the stock today will not make money just that those that purchased 3 years ago or more will not recover, which is true primarily due to the reverse splits. Those that bought years ago made a bad investment in a high risk biotech stock at the wrong time. It happens. TNXP is still high risk but with a proven drug so close to being submitted for marketing approval and multiple drugs in Phase 2, this is not the same company as years ago.

    There is a link in the article for "better options" and I clicked on it. The first recommendation is Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM). It is amazing how similar to TNXP Axsome is. Both have a strong focus on Central Nervous System treatments. Both are working on Fibromyalgia Treatments, Depression Treatments and Agitation in Alzheimer's treatments. They both have almost an identical amount of cash in the bank. The main difference is Axsome already saw a big pop. In 2019, Axsome went from the $2 range to over $100. They have since come down a bit.

    Do yourself a favor and click on that link. Look at the billions in market potential and realize Tonix is targeting the same market. The only difference is Axsome has 6x the value of Tonix at the moment.
  • M
    MichaelM
    Mr.pib They are sitting on $165,000,000 in cash. I doubt this will stay below $1 for long so no need for a R/S. Plus institutions are buying at these levels so no need to R/S to get over $5 in my opinion. Let's see the reporting thought he weekend. If it gets to over 20% in institutional ownership, I would say we are in pretty good shape. Purely speculation but I also expect an announcement at some point that the they will receive some government money towards the manufacturing facilities. I also would not be surprised if they sign a deal with on of the big pharma companies once the interim results for TNX-201 SL come in. I forgot which interview it was but I clearly remember Dr. Lederman referencing how in the past big pharma would partner with you early on but now they wait for the small companies to show proven results taking much of the risk out of it for themselves. So it certainly sounds like he is open to a partnership to me. Good luck all!
  • M
    MichaelM
    There was some more institutional ownership data released today. Geode Capital Management increased their position by 213% to 2,896,717 shares and Northern Trust Corp increased theirs by 141% to 635,539 shares. Multiple other institutions initiated positions.

    https://fintel.io/so/us/tnxp
  • M
    MichaelM
    It seems it will become a little more difficult for the CDC to gloss over breakthrough cases. Breakthrough cases are when a fully vaccinated person contracts Covid. If you watch TV, listen to the radio or even go online, you are likely bombarded with ads to get vaccinated. The government wants you vaccinated and will not do anything to jeopardize their efforts, even if that means putting mRNA vaccine with unknown long-term side effects in the arms of children.

    Originally we were told the current vaccines would "prevent" you from being hospitalized or dying. Well at least 100 fully vaccinated people have died of Covid thus far. Based upon the current numbers, approximately 9% of breakthrough cases result in hospitalization (although in a percentage of those cases the hospitalization is is attributed to something other than Covid despite the fact that the person had Covid when hospitalized). Not a huge number considering the number vaccinated but a significant number considering the government has been telling us nobody should die. Plus the number of overall Covid cases is down significantly since the last peak but still in the range we were seeing in September.

    Well today I learned 7 coaches and staff on my beloved NY Yankees have Covid. This despite the fact that all of them were fully vaccinated. At least one is symptomatic at this time. It makes one question the efficacy numbers.

    I hope and pray that we never get to the point that India is at today. But just two months ago, they were seeing about 10,000 cases per day (about 1/3rd of where we are currently at in the US). Now they are seeing 400,000 cases per day. Some of that increase is being attributed to political campaign rallies and religious festivals. But is that any different than filling a stadium here in the US? Sure India has a much smaller percent of the population vaccinated but the double and triple mutations have had a significant impact on transmissibility as well as the breakdown of their healthcare system. Those variants can now be found in at least 44 countries, including the United States.

    I am not against vaccinations. They will limit the ability for mutations to develop. I am, however, against the unknown and will not expose my family to mRNA vaccines. We take great precautions and continue to wear masks and social distance. We all work and go to school from home. I realize not everybody is in the same situation and people should do what is best for their families.

    There are still over 100 vaccines in development, including TNX-1800. The government really should be getting behind those efforts, especially when presented with promising results such as those in Tonix's non-human primate trials. Putting all our faith in two or three vaccines seems irresponsible to me, especially knowing that the sooner the world is protected from Covid, the fewer mutations and deaths we will face.
  • M
    MichaelM
    @Wolf Of - As far as translating the latest filing, to heck if I know - Lol. All I know is the stock did not take a #$%$ after the announcement and actually went up a penny. In all seriousness, I am going to look further into this. From a brief overview, it does not look like there is an offering at this moment. It looks like Tonix is giving Lincoln Park 1,280,000 shares for free as consideration for the deal. In return, Tonix will be able to sell Lincoln Park anywhere from a 1,000,000 to 10,000,000 shares at a time over the next 36 months from what I can tell. I'm honestly not sure what to think.Tonix has had similar albeit smaller agreements with Lincoln Park in the past. Lincoln Park has also signed similar deals with other stocks. Here are a few I found:April 17, 2019 - Microvision (MVIS), Price at time of agreement @ $1.01. Stock price today $14.04.September 8, 2020 - Celsion (CLSN), Price at time of agreement @ $0.82. Stock price today $1.04.April 6 2021 - Brooklyn Immunotherapeutics (BTX), Price at time of agreement @ $16.47. Stock price today $21.60. BUT HERE IS SOMETHING VERY INTERESTING - within a week after the agreement, BTX ran to a high of $80.67!July 20, 2020 - Histogen (HSTO), Price at time of agreement @ $3.14. Stock price today $0.94.February 10, 2020 Asensus Surgical, Inc. - Formerly known as TransEnterix (TRXC/ASXC), Price at time of agreement @ $1.11. Stock price today $1.70.I just pulled those from the first page results of a Google search for "lincoln park purchase agreement".
  • M
    MichaelM
    @peter Are you familiar with profit margins for drugs?
    What about P/E Ratios for growing Biotechs?
    Did you know peak sales for Lyrica (Pfizer's Fibro drug) were over $5 billion a year?
    The same is true for Lilly's Cymbalta - Peak sales at $5 billion.
    Neither Lyrica or Cymbalta still have patent protection. If approved, TNX-102 SL will be covered until 2035 I believe.
    -The one other drug that is currently protected by patent is Abbvie which only has a few years left of patent protection and whose only indication is Fibromyalgia. Even with a small piece of the market, their peak sales were $350M.
    -Axsome is the only company that is as close to bringing to market a Fibromyalgia drug as Tonix is.
    -Many people with Fibromyalgia switch between drugs because they cannot find relief.
    -Only 43% of patients are satisfied with their current Fibromyalgia treatment leaving lots of potential patients that can benefit from Tonix's drug.

    So with all due respect, if you believe the stock will not move up if and when they are approved, you are mistaken. Also, keep in mind that Tonix has several more indications for the same drug in their pipeline.

    Maybe it is just me but if I believed a stock I owned had no chance of increasing, I would no longer own it. I wonder why you do?
  • s
    stelzig
    If you’re looking for a short and sweet guide to the day’s biggest news, I recommend (http://Pick-stocks.com). They breakdown the most important pre-market news and it only takes a few minutes to read.
  • W
    Wolf Of
    Renaissance Technologies bought 8 mill shares…I can dig it 😎

    https://fintel.io/so/us/tnxp
    TNXP Institutional Ownership - Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp
    fintel.io
  • M
    MichaelM
    @David N and @Michael You are welcome. I don't want to seem as if I am pumping the stock but I do try to post all the positive information I come across. I also post the negative as I did last week when I posted topline results forTNX-102 SL being delayed according to the most recent investor presentation. Fortunately, the interim results are still on track for 3rd quarter. For those that do not know, they are not interim results for the whole group but more the final results for the first half of participants. So that information is significant and not too far off.

    Like the example above, I come across other information that can be seen as negative but really is not when put in perspective. For instance, you can call today an earnings miss because they came in $0.01 under estimates. But that is because they are late in the Fibromyalgia trials which created additional costs.

    One could say that GSA Capital Partners reporting today that they reduced their ownership in TNXP by 62% is a negative. But two quarters ago, they had ownership in the 100k share range. They upped that to 1.41M shares by the end of December. The first quarter of this year is when the stock ran above $2, much of it on hype. It makes sense that they would rebalance or take a significant profit on such a quick run up. I would not be surprised to see they have added shares once again this quarter. Plus the increase in BlackRock's ownership alone far outweighs the drop in GSA Capital Partner's.

    This stock is down today. Guess what? So are the major averages with the Nasdaq leading the way, down 350.38. In my opinion, you have to look at things in perspective. You must also have a reasonable timeframe in mind to see results. There are no guarantees in the market but I fully expect Tonix to be trading significantly higher by this time next year - maybe even sooner.

    Am I happy with the stock at these levels? No. Am I worried? No. Am I an optimist with regard to Tonix? Absolutely.
  • I
    Irshat
    some day we gonna wake up not believing own eyes Tonix hovering at 10 level.. and this day, guys, is just around the corner!
  • I
    IncredibleMrFox
    It seems that Monday's virtual conference will also bring up issues that will have a significant impact on the price development in the current quarter. The willingness of institutions to buy at this stage is a sign that the exchange rate will rise next week.
  • P
    Pavel
    are you not confused by the company's historical schedule? and numerous splits? I think that I could buy shares of this company on Monday, and go out at the level of 5-6 dollars before the end of the year. I think it is quite realistic if the 3rd quarter will be good for them. What do you say?
  • M
    MichaelM
    Just got a chance to look at the balance sheet. As of March 31st, Tonix had $164,214,000 in cash and an additional $8,951,000 in prepaid expenses. For those of you worried about additional offerings anytime soon, it does not appear as if they are wasting the proceeds from the last two so hopefully the stock will be much higher before any additional offerings are needed.
  • T
    Tom
    Not a bad day. Up over 9%. Great way to end the week. Hope for bigger things next week.
  • M
    MichaelM
    @reinier You were looking at the funds that hold Tonix. Go back to your Morningstar link and instead of "funds" click on "institutions" and you will see 1,471,654 shares owned by BlackRock (also the same number shown on the Yahoo Holders link). That was as of 12/31/20. The new data is as of 3/31/21 and has not yet been updated on Morningstar but is 7,602,535 shares owned by BlackRock. I would expect them to do so within a week. The Fintel numbers are the most up to date.

    Either you are intentionally trying to mislead people or you clearly should not be investing.
  • m
    makeaway88
    it's still quality growth on the six month chart. just erratic waiting on some news. something good will happen here .
  • M
    MichaelM
    There is an update on the process development facility. For those that are unfamiliar, in addition to the two vaccine manufacturing facilities, Tonix also purchase another facility in Massachusetts earlier this year for their viral vaccine products. They now have 13 job listings on their website. One has the following as part of the job description:

    "Tonix is currently constructing its own Advanced Development Centre (ADC) facility which will be ready for commissioning in New Bedford MA in Q1, 2022. The position will be based in Tonix’ New Bedford, MA facility once open and operational. Remote work arrangements will be in place until such time."
  • J
    Joe
    Vanguard Group Inc increased theirs by 708.34% to 14,678,162 shares
  • j
    johnc
    The shorts are bashing because they are about to make another move and want to borrow at this low price. Protect your shares by setting a high sell limit on them. If we get some good news with the quarterly or something positive from the FDA, this could finally move up some. Hold long, hold firm! GLTA
    Bullish
  • M
    MichaelM
    As I have been saying recently, we will be getting the institutional ownership filings over the next week. Blackrock updated theirs yesterday and it looks like they increased their position from 1,471,654 to 7,602,535 shares. Not too bad.

    https://fintel.io/so/us/tnxp