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Texas Pacific Land Trust (TPL)

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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399.71-4.29 (-1.06%)
At close: 4:02PM EDT
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  • g
    glenn
    glenn
    So an arbitration settlement with Chevron gives TPL $7.71 million more money from a past underpayment of royalties. The press release indicates this is part of the settlement. That implies that perhaps more royalties will be paid from certain lands going forward. I hope to ask Mr. Packer about this as the release was not very specific. This could mean that 2017 earnings may be higher if certain lands are now included for royalties that should have been in the past but were not. If anyone knows the more comlete story here please post it. (I am devastated that TPL may never see $300 again. Boo-Hoo!!!)
  • L
    Lockwood
    Lockwood
    Thanks, Glenn. Great analysis. Still wondering what the valuations are for the discrete rights owned (e.g. mineral rights, water rights, land, etc.) A 50 forward PE is not usual. NVDA is only 45 Forward PE.
  • d
    deepstream
    deepstream
    The WATER----very important-----
  • J
    JJ
    JJ

    Great summary of Horizon Kinetics' Letter - long thesis for Texas Pacific Land Trust: https://investoralmanac.com/2017/09/09/its-ok-to-earn-a-return-a-different-way-tpl-atw-wll-lng-lsxmk/

    It’s OK to Earn a Return a Different Way – TPL, ATW, WLL, LNG, LSXMK - InvestorAlmanac
    Be Outside the System – It’s OK to Earn a Return a Different Way Indexation has unwittingly become the place to go for systemic risk Whether the index constituents are designated as consumer discretionary or information technology, or as dividend ari
    investoralmanac.com
  • g
    glenn
    glenn
    The large gains of TPL stock are in large part due to "luck" in that they have massive land holdings in an area that will produce energy for decades to come. The other reason for the good performance is that the management cannot issue themselves or buy other companies with TPL stock. Management here act as true stewards over a vast empire of land. Their mandate is to continue to buy back (and cancel) shares. This is done without regard to the price of TPL. This should set up a situation where the PE ratio will never remain "low" for too long a time. Going forward this may help to create a situation where the stock may spend a lot of time appearing to be "overvalued." Earnings for TPL are harder to predict the longer one goes out in time. The stock should continue to trade at a PE of around 40-50. The best advise I can give anyone here is to have a solid core holding for the long-term. Keep TPL on your list of stocks to consider buying when the next stock-market meltdown hits. Enjoy holding this stock as it is unique in so many ways...the most important being that the management of TPL will do what it's always done...use its earnings to buy back stock, and doing nothing to upset that strategy. This is the one stock that I wish for sharp declines...and I may not very often get my wish granted. Will it ever hit $300 again? I hope so! $200? Not likely. How aout $2000? Perhaps within 5 years.
  • d
    deepstream
    deepstream
    Also---THE WATER- will be of vast value going forward---as a West Texas land owner--this I know about----
  • g
    glenn
    glenn
    TPL hit $400.00 today...only $1,600.00 to go till $2,000.00.
  • L
    Leonard
    Leonard
    It's not the value of the land, but the value of the oil commissions, cattle grazing, water sales, renting of road rites, and last of all the value of the land. The idea is to sell as little land as possible so as to make profits off of the land. Got it?
  • L
    Lockwood
    Lockwood
    Given total revenues are just over $10 per share and stock price is over $300 per share. There must be more than meets the eye. Could it be the difference between book value and market value of land and other real property rights? At $3 billion market cap, that makes 2 million acres worth about $1,500 per acre, with no value given to other property rights (oil/gas/water/minerals, etc). What lands worth in that part of Texas?
  • L
    Lockwood
    Lockwood
    Correction on acreage: 887553 acres held in Trust at Dec. 31, 2016 and $3 billion Market Cap = $3,380 per acre valuation without regard to other property rights and income therefrom.
  • B
    Burger
    Burger
    Is it just me, or does this look a lot like Sept. 2016...
  • g
    glenn
    glenn
    Earnings out TPL earned $2.12 a share for the quarter with reported water sales of $6.84 million. Wow! We should get to over $8.00 for 2017. I am surprised at the amount of revenues that water is bringing in.
  • g
    glenn
    glenn
    Will everyone here please sell so I can buy more at a lower price! (Seriously, I don't think this will ever go low enough to make me happy.)
  • F
    Frank
    Frank
    I wish there was a way to get a better handle on TPL's prospects. Of all the companies I have seen, this is by far the hardest to evaluate. Virtually no communication, analyst coverage or even news releases. How can you project earnings or value the company if ther is no info
  • g
    glenn
    glenn
    Looks like TPL will hit a new all time high prior to earnings. APC reported that their production from the Delaware was up 52% from the year ago quarter. Looks like APC will continue to develop this area further. I think TPL will be reporting for the first time their DUC wells (drilled but un-completed) on their lands. (Just royalty land?) Anyway, stock will probably spike with the earnings report, then sell off some. (How I wish we could people to write negative articles to get some shorting done here. Oh well, that's not very likely.) I am hoping we hit below $300 before we get to over $400.
  • P
    P Cis
    P Cis

    From Kinetics, the largest TPL shareholder. TPL on page 8, but great read all around.
    http://horizonkinetics.com/wp-content/uploads/Q2-2017-Commentary_APPROVED_FINAL.pdf

  • B
    Boo
    Boo
    So much for buying in today, I'll wait and hope for low $300s
  • g
    glenn
    glenn
    Hit a new all time high today. Tomorrow earnings should be out. Volume almost 60,000 shares. Might be a good idea to sell some trading shares if it hits into the 340's. Looking forward to devouring the quarterly report, especially to see how they report the PUC's, to see what is added to "deferred revenue," and, to see if they will segregate the water business.
  • g
    glenn
    glenn
    Over 41,000 shares traded yesterday, that's good volume for this stock. 2nd quarter earnings should be good, giving the stock price a further boost. My belief is that 2018 will the the 1st year that we see some impact of production from areas that are using 2017 to buid out infrastructure to gather and send out production. This is one stock that I hope for large selloffs as those will be excellent buying opportunities. Should oil prices be in the 50's during 2018 that would be a boost to earnings. So long as oil stays between 40-50 TPL should do fine. I am curious to see if our easement and sundry income moves higher in the 2nd quarter, as this will be a harbinger of higher production in future quarters.
  • g
    glenn
    glenn
    Spoke with Mr.Packer today for info on the water business. Sounds like they plan to move slowly for now, mainly selling water from their surface lands, to operators who are interested. By being in the business they can keep a closer eye on how their resources are used and make certain they are not misused or abused. (Sounds very sensible to me.) They have no plans to build pipelines or infrastructure unless or until they have the commitments to make it worthwhile. TPL believes they have enough money to both continue to buy back stock as well as invest in the water business. In time water will be a limitting factor as the more robust oil producers will require massive amounts of sand and water. It should speak volumes that Mr.packer called me back on a Friday evening at 7:15 EST. TPL hired a couple of people wh used to work for EOG. One advantage TPL has is they own so much land that anyone else wanting to do anything would require TPL's approval. I get the impression that for now TPL deals with the operators who provide equipment needed. For now, at least I don't see this needing very much money. That may change as the situation changes. (All just my impressions.)