Looks like we'll have to wait til Monday for the correction, but come Monday: Watch Out !!! Shorts are gonna cry like girls!
Both Trem and Electro are correct - shorting TVIX (at the proper time, natch) is the ONLY GUARANTEED win, over time (due to the 12.5% monthly decay): From mid-August, 2015, to August 31, 2015, TVIX rose more than 400%. HOWEVER . . . ALL OF SAID GAINS WERE GIVEN BACK WITHIN TWO TRADING WEEKS (9-14-2015). TVIX then went sideways to up, reaching less than 40% of its previous August 31st high, then fell once more . . . finally going LOWER than its price just BEFORE (August 1st) its 400% rise, breaking to the downside on 2-29-2015.
Moral of the story: TVIX is always (just) a TRADE . . . usually, at the relative extremes, for a 1 to 2 day trade (other than for intra-day trades, ala JDST and JNUG).
On RARE occasions, e.g., August 15 to 31, 2015, one can hold TVIX for a max of 5-8 days . . . but then short the sh## out of it, and KEEP shorting it, if TVIX goes higher . . . as it will surely decay over time (at the aforementioned rate of 12.5% per month, by my calculations). If I had an unused $100K, I would pick a nice spike in TVIX to short, then hold this TVIX short for the year (unless there was an aforementioned impending market fall, as predicted by Larry Williams just two days ago), whereby I would cover my TVIX short, book profits, go long for a couple of days, then start the TVIX shorting process all over again.
I trade with AMTD, which, on several occasions, has failed me in providing shortable shares of TVIX; which is a pity, as shorting TVIX is the only guarantee in this trading business.
I heard Amazon will acquire Tvix for more than 20 Billion... wow.. tvix board and share holders will be very happy..go amazon go.. United States of Amazon...lmao
Executive branch scrambling for lawyers, markets at all time high with extremely high PE's, debt at all time high, geopolitical mess, yet we still have the VIX near all time lows. When the flip does happen, it's going to be catastrophic. Its actually scary now to trade short/XIV trading because this cannot last forever.
We are just pennies away from a new, new, new... new all-time low. What a brilliant time to be long TVIX. Can you feel it? Methinks a good squeeze is in order. Squeeeeeze it hard and slow! ...How much more of this pain can shorts take?
Poor shorts, continue to be punished here. They don't get we are in a nasdaq correction, the beginning, but a correction nonetheless. Going to be pain for shorts going forward, while longs will be richly rewarded on the TVIX train
Time to long TVIX again: Two days ago (6/20/2017) Cramer did an "Off the Charts" segment featuring charts of legendary technician and trader Larry Williams (over 50 yrs experience; has accurately called the bottom - one day before the "shock and awe" in Bagdad) on March 13, 2002 - and the credit bubble bottom on March 4, 2009, as well as numerous bull market plunges (as occurred on August 17,2015 (Dow lost 1100+ points pre-market), and Jan 4. 2016. Williams said (2 days ago) that: "after a phenomenal run so far in 2017, the market is due for a pullback. Looking at a chart of where decennial forecasts put the Dow Industrials, stocks are heading for a pullback as soon as THIS Friday or Monday. That pullback should be brief, but will forecast a dramatically LARGER MOVE, starting in late July, kicking off somewhere between the July 20 and July 25. If the pattern holds, stocks could keep falling through November." Yikes! This sounds similar to the August 2015 plunge - where TVIX climbed over 400% in 7 trading days. My plan is to long TVIX today (anticipating this smaller market pullback starting Friday/Monday, then sell in about 3-4 days (a long hold for TVIX). Then go long some of the high betas (e.g., AMD, VALE, CLF, maybe E&Ps like WLL, SN, and UWT if oil temporarily bottoms. Then sell circa July 15th, then long TVIX for the BIG PLUNGE . . . then, of course, book profits in TVIX (after an extended hold, about 5-6 days); then re-assess. As we know, TVIX, unfortunately, decays at a rate of about 12.5% per month. When TVIX reaches its high point, I'll try to short TVIX . . . if there's any shares available to short.
They just keep coming -- an endless stream, and in spite of an admonition by CS in the prospectus warning them that they will lose "all or most of their investment" by taking a long position in TVIX. If these guys can post on a message board, i know they can read... they just don't want to read the TVIX prospectus.
Market Isa crushing. I know this fect becuase I ema espert tarding man. I Ema Dooshbeg. Shorts must scrumble and cry now. Isa correcton now beginning.
Agree with the previous poster, nasdaq is starting a correction. This is classic where you have a head fake like Monday's rally, but this is a pattern in a deep correction. A lot of selling, which we've seen, a positive day or two sandwiched in there, several stocks making market gains giving the impression an entire sector is rallying, but all the while the Nasdaq keeps drifting downward. The other classic symptom is a feeling of invincibility or complacency on the side of the longs, which is also present. This sell off is going to be a doosey, the key is spotting the clouds before the storm. ETF's like TVIX and UVXY are prime for conditions we're about to experience
Ewing tbull, hey guyz what's up. Covered to net 95% profit. Took awhile. U guyz can have the last nickel. I'm sure in ur case this is 99.9% profit. Haven't posted for awhile since the old board. Read Ewing post now and then. Still trying to save the newbies I see. If u get some time and don't care to look at rwc Rowan co that's trading at 1/4 of tangible book. 45 dollar oil no good for it. Not a tout so don't take it that way. Old board was bullbrreder
Stage One noobs were always a little on the silly side, but this latest crop is completely hysterical.
Tomorrow the shorts will be sorry?
Ouch, Nasdaq futures down again this a.m., looking like another drubbing for shorts today. Seems there are less and less of those people on this board recently. Last week was great for longs of the etf money makers and this week is shaping up very nicely. Can you say short squeeze?
Stage one for the short seller is being in deep denial. We see that all over this board. Shorts of TVIX just don't get it and burying their head in the sand won't change things
I am just going to agree with greg on that one.
This is a great hedge?
Hey, Spot VIX is unchanged but TVIX is down 6% - How can this be? Somebody call the SEC - Markets are rigged - It's a SCAM - SEC needs to shut this thing down!!!! - When is the next Stage 2 meeting again?
Feel bad for shawtie here. The roof is about to fall in and they have no idea. Little head fake last week and these fools are feeling warm and fuzzy. Never mind we are in the beginning of a long term correction, or the layman would call it a CRASH. Poor shawts, they don't know what's about to hit'em
I love it, the TVIX hecklers are sprouting as fast as the TVIX longs. LOL