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Ternium S.A. (TX.MX)

Mexico - Mexico Delayed Price. Currency in MXN
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873.00+41.00 (+4.93%)
As of 11:51AM CST. Market open.
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  • R
    Roberto
    TX - Simply the biggest opportunity in decades ...
    Earnings 2021 > $19.45
    Price now > $48.00
    P/E > 2.4 !!!!!! Total Insanity

    TX is a first class company, 100% focused on shareholder value, severe disciplined management
    TX deserves at least a PE= 6 and that will be still very cheap
    TX at $100 is a fact in some months, just losd up and wait

    I want thanks a lot investors that inexplicably gave away its shares
    at $ 42 at $ 40 at $ 39 on the fall and the rise again at $40, at $42
    I just DOUBLED my stake on TX with many partial purchases

    TX Earnings forecast still strong as a rock, steel prices in very good level
    that will generate tons of earnings

    After September, October, November and December of rest
    TX has turned UP violently and its next rally will be explosive ...
    We'll reach U$100 very soon, see you there
  • C
    C
    Big move & big volume today for TX.
  • E
    Eyal
    Hi,
    Can anyone explain to me why TX management does not declare a stock buyback.?

    It is very obvious that TX is way undervalued at its price.

    So, I don't understand why they don't start a buyback process. Doesn't TX management think they are going to make lots of $$ doing that???
    Bullish
  • S
    Steve
    Breaking News: TX up 17% since Thanksgiving on news people learned how to read financial statements.
  • S
    Steve
    X Their stock price would have to go up 31% over the next two quarters for their EV to remain flat. I expect close to $2.4B in free cash flow over the next 2 qtrs. (Q4 and Q1). Mkt cap less net cash of $300m (end of Q3) gets you to an EV of $7.6B. $2.4B FCF/ $7.6B EV = 31%
  • A
    Anonymous
    HRC1!
    U.S. MIDWEST DOMESTIC HOT-ROLLED COIL STEEL (CRU) INDEX FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT)COMEX
    1406
    D
    USD
    −9 (−0.64%)
  • B
    Ben
    cool
    Bullish
  • S
    Steve
    For some perspective In 2018 Rev per ton ranged from $770 to $816/ton. In 2018 TX made $7.67 eps, that's a PE below 5 at current prices. I fully expect Q4 free cash flow will be >$1B, Q3 net cash was $300M, so their EV before Q4 cash flow is $7.1B. That is a 14% free cash flow yield for 1 qtr. Q1 2022 free cash flow will be higher than Q4 as the new Pesqueria plant inventory build up will be done in Q4.
  • Z
    Ze Bob
    TX has been holding up very nicely in these market jitters ... next stop $43
    Bullish
  • A
    Anonymous
    HRC1!
    U.S. MIDWEST DOMESTIC HOT-ROLLED COIL STEEL (CRU) INDEX FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT)COMEX
    1411
    D
    USD
    −15 (−1.05%)
    MARKET OPEN (AS OF JAN 6, 12:47 EST)
  • Z
    Ze Bob
    $46 next stop ... slowly but steady
    Bullish
  • F
    Favin
    Significant MACD (Type 2) buy signal for a mid cap company, with an 88.9% track record. It has returned on average 10.92% over 4 to 5 weeks. Showing an upside of 48%.
  • M
    Matt
    “Steel prices could trend 'much higher' compared to the last 10 years, major Indian steelmaker says”

    https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/11/22/steel-prices-to-trend-higher-compared-to-the-last-10-years-tata-steel.html
  • S
    Steve
    oversold..undervalued
  • S
    Steve
    TX.....Per Q3 call "For the fourth quarter, we expect a sequential increase in cost per ton, partially offset by an increase in revenue per ton. With shipments remaining relatively stable this should try (*lead) to a slight decrease in EBITDA quarter-over-quarter."
    See key phrase SLIGHT DECREASE.
    https://www.investing.com/commodities/us-steel-coil-futures-historical-data
    TX knows what their Q4 earnings will be within a very tight range as contracts run on a 3 to 6 month basis. (if you look at the link above you can see TX's realized prices for Q3 approximated the March through May spot market) Q3 EBITDA was $1.9B, slight decrease to me means $1.7 to $1.8B in EBITDA for Q4.
    Mgmt stated working capital would increase again
    "I mean we are again in the ramp-up curve. Our expectation for 2021 is that the facility is going to provide us between 1.5 and 2 million tons of additional volume. Some of that volume is going to the Tenigal facility, which before that imports material. But probably those are the numbers, Caio.
    Pablo Brizzio
    Just to clarify, Caio, we are referring to 2022 volume --
    Máximo Vedoya
    2022, yes. From the year."
    Máximo Vedoya
    "Thank you, Alex. A very good question. I try to answer. But I mean you are right. What the US producers or our competitors are saying is in the industrial market. The contracts, they have a lot of contracts that are annually based contracts. To be honest, we don't have -- our main contracts are quarterly basis or every six months. And we don't have a lot of annual contracts in our industrial base customers. So, it's true that our contracts for the fourth quarter are going to -- the quarter contracts for the fourth quarter are going to be higher. And for next year probably, most of our first six months are going to have contracts that are higher than the ones of this year."
    With a 1.5 to 2M ton increase, volume of tons shipped are expected to increase 12% to 17% with Pesqueria on line in 2022 as total production in tons was in the 12 to 13M range for the TTM.
    Working capital
    "Looking forward, steel prices continue to be high and the new hot rolling mill in Pesqueria advances in its ramp-up process, we should see some investments in working capital, but nowhere near the figures we registered in the third quarter."
    Q3 saw a massive $1.1B increase in working capital and for the TTM working capital increased by $2.7B, but mgmt. is guiding for a significant decrease in working capital from Q3 (we won't get a full reversal of this $2.7B (inv is up $1.6B since the beg of the yr., and the baseline level is higher due to their new facility), so if we get $1.7B in ebitda for Q4 - $150M in maintenance cap ex - $400M in working capital increases (still ramping up Pesqueria) your looking at $1.1 to $1.2B in FCF for Q4, their EV (net cash position) is close to $7B right now, so 15% to 17% FCF yield for a single qtr.
    With contract pricing increasing (per mgmt and the spot market shows very steady pricing levels for the last 7 months), and with no reversal in working capital (trade receivables are up $1.1B since the beg of the yr., so I'm being conservative) I anticipate working capital will be flat in Q1, as the ramp up of Pesqueria is reaching its end. Q1 2022 FCF should be higher than Q4, ($1.7B in Q1 2022- 200M maintenance cap ex) FCF should be in the $1.5B range, so i'm expecting a FCF yld. of 21% for Q1 2022; across Q4 and Q1 2022 you're looking at a FCF yld. around 36 to 38%.
    That is a really really cheap valuation.
  • A
    Anonymous
    U.S. MIDWEST DOMESTIC HOT-ROLLED COIL STEEL (CRU) INDEX FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT)HRC1!
    HRC1!COMEX
    See more on advanced chart
    1640
    USD
    −21 (−1.26%)
  • A
    Anonymous
    U.S. MIDWEST DOMESTIC HOT-ROLLED COIL STEEL (CRU) INDEX FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT)HRC1!
    HRC1!COMEX
    See more on advanced chart
    1425
    D
    USD
    −10 (−0.70%)
  • S
    Steve
    TX; I feel terrible if any of you panic sold after that completely misleading Bloomberg news piece, price reaction and confusing partial dividend advance, but their guidance on the call was higher than the average street estimate for next qtr of $5.14, as mgmt. guided to a slight decrease from eps of $6.12 in q3 due to higher slab costs. In Q4 ebitda will be >$1.7B or 22% of current EV and their FCF should be around $1.1B or 15% of EV ($1.7B ebitda - $400M working capital increase - $200M maint cap-ex) Their FCF will be more than double last qtrs. as Q3 had an enormous $1.1B working capital hit to FCF as they ramped up inventory in their new Pesqueria Mexico plant + trade receivables increased. Since they negotiate contracts on a 3mo and 6 mo period Q1 2022 should approximate Q4 (mgmt guided pricing is reseting at higher levels on the conf call and Hot rolled coil steel prices have remained in the $1,800 to $1,900/ton range since July). Going into 2022 FCF is set to significantly increase as working capital has increased by $2.7B over the last 4 qtrs. (inventory is up $1.6B and trade receivables are up $1.1B since the beginning of the year). With a 10-15% increase in production capacity from their new plant + steel prices remaining strong + a partial reversal of the $2.7B in working capital increases (I think there will be an additional $400M for Q4), I just don't see how TX posts free cash flow in 2022 that's less than 50% of their current EV.
  • S
    Steve
    no 'pumper keep pumping' emails today?
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