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Ubiquiti Networks, Inc. (UBNT)

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  • Wunderlich Director names Ubiquiti ($UBNT) as one of the most compelling investment opportunities in the industry. http://bit.ly/2tab4hx

    "Ubiquiti is in what I would call a planting stage with lots of new products. And the way their go-to-market business model works, 12 to 24 months after they introduce new products, they are able to ramp through the margin-expansion learning curve and to harvest profit. They’ve had stunning market share growth over the last couple of years in wireless LAN where they’ve grown to second after Cisco in unit volume for business LAN wireless access points."

    Focusing on Artificial Intelligence, Internet of Things and 5G Growth Trends - The Wall Street Transcript
    TWST: Please begin with an overview of your coverage and tell us about your current focus. Mr. Robison: Sure. I cover a range of companies from intellectual-property providers to network equipment providers that, in a couple cases, also provide commu
    bit.ly
  • It is sad as a long that this great company does very little to promote itself. I saw a posting last month to Pera's blog but that is it. No news releases on new business deals or products. Potential investors need to know.
  • My guess is that UBNT is due for a pullback in the short-run. google awe.SOME-StockS - they offer pretty good trade alerrts. you dont have to trade their tickers but it definetly helps you recognize possible patterns for stocks you're trading.
  • I have just finished the June quarter numbers and have now collected data on the ShopBLT inventory for almost 18 months.

    The data shows trends. For example this quarter there has been a significant uptick in the AirMax sales. AirPrizm units averaged 41 units a month in the Sept/Dec/Mar quarters but ShopBLT sold 156 units/month in June - up 382%. A credit to the GPS and backward compatibility solution.

    The Nanobeam AC 16 - (a key CPE but a first generation AC product) averaged 388 units a month over the Sept/Dec/Mar quarter and sold 2216 units a month in the June quarter - up 570%. The increase from just the March quarter was 898 units v 2216 per month - 247%. (The 6 new AC CPE's are shipping but in small quantities.)

    Below is a summary.

    Name/June Q (April/May/June) monthly average/trailing 3Q (March/Dec/ Sept quarters totaled and divided by 9) monthly average/ the June figure divided by the second.

    AirFiber 24/126 units/62.5 units/2.02
    AirFiber 5/87.67/42.89/2.04
    AirFiber 5x/93/52.4/1.77
    AirMax Sector 120degree/21/46/.46 - a decrease
    2ghz Omni/62.3/54.6/1.14
    5ghzOmni/178/114/1.56
    Rocket5ACPrizm/ 156.7/ 41/3.82
    Litebeam 5 AC 23/508/175/2.90
    2.4 Ghz Bullet /169/51.6/3.28
    Nanobeam AC 16 /2216/898(single quarter due to new product) / 2.47
    Rocket 5m 215/245/.88 - prism sales taking share
    Nanobeam 5ghz m/ 498/380/1.31. M still selling
    Nanobeam 2.4ghz m/ 329/436/.76 a decrease - AC taking share
    AirMax Loco 2.4m/1798/833/2.16
    AirMax Loco 5m/674/840/.80
    ES 8 150/93/42/2.21
    ES 16 150/42/101/.42
    ES 24 500/271/97/2.77
    ER Pro 8/252/159/1.58
    ER8 / 166/117/1.42
    ES 24 250/ 187/194/.96
    AirRouter LR /697/153/4.56
    AirRouter/331/450/.74. LR taking share
    TC-Pro Cable 856/586/1.46
    ToughSw8/936/636/1.47
    ToughSw5/764/761/1.00
    Eth Surge P/3007/1578/1.91
    ER-X /2262/717/3.15
    US 8 150/ 2091/2421/.86
    US 16 150 / 680/316/2.15
    US 24 250/ 1268/982/1.29
    US 24 500/118/290/.41
    US 48 500/644/358/1.80
    USG/ 4319/1912/2.26
    USG-Pro-4 /1028/290/3.54
    Cloud Key /3799/3026/1.26
    UAP AC Pro 5pk /1057/1371/.77
    UAP AC LR / 5737/3583/1.60
    UAP AC Lite / 3566/3553/1.00
    UAP AC Pro / 21507/12473/1.72
    UAP AC HD / 2748 June v 832 Mar Q /3.30
    UAP AC M Pro/ 903 June v 685 Mar Q 2.24
    UAP AC Mesh / 3131 June v 1317 Mar Q 2.38
    UVC G3 / 851 June v 804 Mar Q 1.06.
    UVC Dome/ 779 June v 259 Mar Q 3.01

    There are a few products with slowing sales. But on the whole growth is very strong. In a world with 1 to 2 percent growth and where sales for their competitors is decreasing - these number show excellent execution.

    There was a huge increase in stocking - often beyond the reported order book and in line with Robert's promise to invest in inventory.

    During the quarter ShopBLT increased its partnership with UBNT by expanding their inventory to all 5 of their US warehouses - previously only two carried product. These figures are sell through numbers and not significantly impacted by the expansion.
  • This article calls for a EPS of $1.15 if this were extrapolated over a year which is conservative with growing revenue it would be $4.6 per share which would change the PE to 11.2 based on current price. The price per share would have to be adjusted to at least a 15 PE which would bring the share price up to $69. I be patient and take that. This is easy.

    https://www.mmahotstuff.com/2017/06/30/eps-for-avx-avx-expected-at-0-18-ubiquiti-networks-ubnts-sentiment-is-1-15.html

    EPS for AVX (AVX) Expected At $0.18, Ubiquiti Networks (UBNT)'s Sentiment Is 1.15 - Money Making Articles Hot Stuff
    Analysts expect AVX Corporation (NYSE:AVX) to report $0.18 EPS on July, 26.They anticipate $0.01 EPS change or 5.26% from last quarter’s $0.19 EPS. AVX’s profit would be $31.05M giving it 22.71 P/E if the $0.18 EPS is correct. After having $0.20 EPS
    www.mmahotstuff.com
  • Ubiquiti Networks: Case Study in Business Model Disruptions - Long Thesis for $UBNT https://investoralmanac.com/2017/07/01/ubiquiti-networks-case-study-in-business-model-disruptions/

    InvestorAlmanac - Ubiquiti Networks: Case Study in Business Model Disruptions
    Capitalize for KIDS Monthly Manager Insight – Ubiquiti Networks, A Case Study in Business Model Disruption, June 2017 “Real investment risk is measured not by the percent that a stock may decline i…
    investoralmanac.com
  • It's interesting that Arista has a higher inventory to sales, higher YoY growth in inventory, similar growth rate to UBNT, greater threat of disruption as FB, GOOG and AMZN move towards in house solutions and yet it trades at 3x the earnings multiple of UBNT. And Arista has lower quality earnings because they add back stock comp while UBNT's is clean. Both companies are largely covered by the same analysts too. Go figure.
  • Who has heard about Quantenna Communications,, is this competition ?? Just ran across then
  • Is it time to make a move on UBNT? Yo you should really check out AWE.some.STOCK_S, they seem on point with their stocks.
  • Stocking investment huge winner. ShopBLT UAP AC Pro averaged about 19,000/month in Q1. In May ShopBLT sold 32134. 10 days ago there were 38800 in stock. Since then an additional 19200 have been delivered and there are now 17525 available. That translates to 40475 unit sell through in 10 days.

    Nanobeam 5Ac16 Gen 1 sold about 200/month in Dec/Jan - 622 in Feb - 1923 in March - 839 in April ( no inventory) - 2645 in May and 1025 so far in June. Currently out of stock. 920 unit shipments sell out in a day. Gen 2 CPE's still hard to get through ShopBLT. Grant says Streakwave ordering larger quantities.

    Bottom line is that where there is inventory unit sales are significantly better. The investment in inventory will be a valuable lesson for the company going forward.
  • Please .. Who can update me on your possible numbers on share buyback this qtr ..
  • Build it and they will come was the theme of the Kevin Costner baseball movie. Well my tracking of the inventory at the ShopBLT site clearly shows massive stocking over the past two months. But more importantly it shows a rapid sell through.

    The best selling Unifi UAP - the Pro - has always sold well. In January it started the month with 30,000 in stock. Eddie posted that would take a long time to clear - well it sold out in 30 days.

    Last Monday June 5, there were 38,855 and another 5,000 were delivered on the 9th. Today there are 20,434. That is sell through of 23,421 in 7 days.

    The intention of the company to invest in inventory was to make sure the installers didn't have to wait around for supply. The company has opened inventory warehouses in Utah and Poland. The ShopBLT has expanded its inventory from 2 warehouses to 5 in the US and Grant reporting that Streakwave is going big time trying to keep up inventory for the new new CPE's.

    So what's on waitlist now after 5 month of the massive inventory build? I track 120 products. Here are the ones we're UBNT can't keep up.

    NVR - for the camera's. Seeking 700 now - record backlog by double.

    UAP AC Outdoor Meshpoint - seeking 2300.

    Nanobeam AC 5 - 19 - seeking 1600

    Nanobeam AC 5 - 16 - seeking 1300

    Lite beam AC Gen 2 2.4 - seeking 190

    Lite Beam AC 5 16 - seeking 190

    Isobeam 5 AC Gen 2 - seeking 384

    Fiber Poe Switch - seeking 140

    ER X. - backordered 700 - seeking 1700

    AirFiber 5 - seeking 120

    AirFiber 5x - seeking 130.

    AirFiber slant dish - seeking 60.

    Watching sell through is about seeing slight upticks in demand and companies little Ingram are good at anticipating use. Add to that UBNT's massive in county inventory to supplement increasing demand and you can see the growth of the products is very strong.

    Go UBNT.
  • Just a couple of observations. The GPS roll out is having an impact with all the AC CPE's waitlisted at ShopBLT and that's with significant product delivery. The stories on the community are very supportive.

    Generally the Wisp is reluctant to dive right into a new product rollout until firmware is stable and tweaked by early adopters. This rollout seems solid.

    http://bit.ly/2skmTUw

    There are increasing stories about large enterprise rollouts on the Unifi platform. The sell through on the AC Pro backs this up. Over the last seven days the ShopBLT ate sold through over 23,000 AC Pro's.

    http://bit.ly/2thLSVV

  • Interesting trade strategy on UBNT. I saw this solicitation on my news feed for UBNT and gave it a look. It's a promotional teaser but it's pretty interesting and very predictable/understandable if you've followed this stock closely like I have.

    Essentially you wait until 2 days after earnings and sell an out of the money spread with plans to close it before 30 days. The theory is that the stock generally makes it's move in the 1-2 days after earnings and then settles aimlessly for the first month.

    They show a 3 year back test that consisted of 12 trades (3 years x 4 earnings per year). All 12 were winners and the return was over 100%. If the link will post I'll paste it .

    http://news.cmlviz.com/2017/06/12/right-after-earnings-the-intelligent-options-trade-in-ubiquiti-networks-inc.html

    Right After Earnings, The Intelligent Options Trade in Ubiquiti Networks Inc - CML News
    This is a simple option trade that starts two-days after Ubiquiti Networks Inc (NASDAQ:UBNT) earnings and lasts for the one month to follow, that has been a winner for 3 straight years.
    news.cmlviz.com
  • ShopBLT numbers clearly show why this rally should continue. Excellent deliveries were expected based on Robert's inventory program. But the real story was the sell through. The AC Pro UAP had a record 32134 units. The 5 pack is easier to follow and it sold 2191 units versus an average of 1415/month in March quarter. Clearly these AP's are still ramping.

    Unifi AC HD is beginning to roll. feb - 969 units. March - 1517 units. April - 3528 units. And May - 1163 units. This shows the lumpy deliveries slowed momentum as May sales equaled April deliveries. May deliveries were 4990.

    The investment in inventory is clearly playing well. The Unifi kit - AP's, surge protector, USG and switch are all seeing great growth. The surge protector sold 2916 units versus 1657/month in March quarter. And the USG sold 3397 units versus 2389/month in March quarter.

    The cloud key sales dropped significantly which I attribute to the Unifi Elite and 199 Elite lite cloud hosting product just implemented. This subscription service takes the place of the cloud key and will bring recurring revenue.

    Cameras/NVR sales are very encouraging. The G3 sold 1272 units versus 656/month in March quarter.

    Unifi switches rocked with the Lites finally get enough inventory to meet demand.

    The new AC CPE's and older AC equipment saw some pickup in sales due to the GPS rollout. But inventory on the new AC CPE's is scarce. The AirFibers had a good month. The Nanobeams AC 16 sold 2645 units versus 904/month in the March quarter.

    The AF24 sold 124 units versus an average of 59 in the March quarter and 82/month in the December quarter.

    All in all a great month.
  • UBNT may be a compelling opportunity. Im not sure about you guys but awesome.stock.s has provided me with some pretty good trade ideas. I messed up executing some of them but thats on me.
  • UBNT is down -5.00% to 48.25
  • I sure hope Robert P is not the one loaning the shares for the shorties. Drive price down and then take private. You can tell based on last conference call that he really is not a fan of the quarterly conference calls. Believe it or not I am long!
  • Nice open and not a bad 3-4 days.....