Please .. Who can update me on your possible numbers on share buyback this qtr ..
Stocking investment huge winner. ShopBLT UAP AC Pro averaged about 19,000/month in Q1. In May ShopBLT sold 32134. 10 days ago there were 38800 in stock. Since then an additional 19200 have been delivered and there are now 17525 available. That translates to 40475 unit sell through in 10 days.
Nanobeam 5Ac16 Gen 1 sold about 200/month in Dec/Jan - 622 in Feb - 1923 in March - 839 in April ( no inventory) - 2645 in May and 1025 so far in June. Currently out of stock. 920 unit shipments sell out in a day. Gen 2 CPE's still hard to get through ShopBLT. Grant says Streakwave ordering larger quantities.
Bottom line is that where there is inventory unit sales are significantly better. The investment in inventory will be a valuable lesson for the company going forward.
Build it and they will come was the theme of the Kevin Costner baseball movie. Well my tracking of the inventory at the ShopBLT site clearly shows massive stocking over the past two months. But more importantly it shows a rapid sell through.
The best selling Unifi UAP - the Pro - has always sold well. In January it started the month with 30,000 in stock. Eddie posted that would take a long time to clear - well it sold out in 30 days.
Last Monday June 5, there were 38,855 and another 5,000 were delivered on the 9th. Today there are 20,434. That is sell through of 23,421 in 7 days.
The intention of the company to invest in inventory was to make sure the installers didn't have to wait around for supply. The company has opened inventory warehouses in Utah and Poland. The ShopBLT has expanded its inventory from 2 warehouses to 5 in the US and Grant reporting that Streakwave is going big time trying to keep up inventory for the new new CPE's.
So what's on waitlist now after 5 month of the massive inventory build? I track 120 products. Here are the ones we're UBNT can't keep up.
NVR - for the camera's. Seeking 700 now - record backlog by double.
UAP AC Outdoor Meshpoint - seeking 2300.
Nanobeam AC 5 - 19 - seeking 1600
Nanobeam AC 5 - 16 - seeking 1300
Lite beam AC Gen 2 2.4 - seeking 190
Lite Beam AC 5 16 - seeking 190
Isobeam 5 AC Gen 2 - seeking 384
Fiber Poe Switch - seeking 140
ER X. - backordered 700 - seeking 1700
AirFiber 5 - seeking 120
AirFiber 5x - seeking 130.
AirFiber slant dish - seeking 60.
Watching sell through is about seeing slight upticks in demand and companies little Ingram are good at anticipating use. Add to that UBNT's massive in county inventory to supplement increasing demand and you can see the growth of the products is very strong.
Just a couple of observations. The GPS roll out is having an impact with all the AC CPE's waitlisted at ShopBLT and that's with significant product delivery. The stories on the community are very supportive.
Generally the Wisp is reluctant to dive right into a new product rollout until firmware is stable and tweaked by early adopters. This rollout seems solid.
There are increasing stories about large enterprise rollouts on the Unifi platform. The sell through on the AC Pro backs this up. Over the last seven days the ShopBLT ate sold through over 23,000 AC Pro's.
Interesting trade strategy on UBNT. I saw this solicitation on my news feed for UBNT and gave it a look. It's a promotional teaser but it's pretty interesting and very predictable/understandable if you've followed this stock closely like I have.
Essentially you wait until 2 days after earnings and sell an out of the money spread with plans to close it before 30 days. The theory is that the stock generally makes it's move in the 1-2 days after earnings and then settles aimlessly for the first month.
They show a 3 year back test that consisted of 12 trades (3 years x 4 earnings per year). All 12 were winners and the return was over 100%. If the link will post I'll paste it .
Right After Earnings, The Intelligent Options Trade in Ubiquiti Networks Inc - CML News
This is a simple option trade that starts two-days after Ubiquiti Networks Inc (NASDAQ:UBNT) earnings and lasts for the one month to follow, that has been a winner for 3 straight years.
ShopBLT numbers clearly show why this rally should continue. Excellent deliveries were expected based on Robert's inventory program. But the real story was the sell through. The AC Pro UAP had a record 32134 units. The 5 pack is easier to follow and it sold 2191 units versus an average of 1415/month in March quarter. Clearly these AP's are still ramping.
Unifi AC HD is beginning to roll. feb - 969 units. March - 1517 units. April - 3528 units. And May - 1163 units. This shows the lumpy deliveries slowed momentum as May sales equaled April deliveries. May deliveries were 4990.
The investment in inventory is clearly playing well. The Unifi kit - AP's, surge protector, USG and switch are all seeing great growth. The surge protector sold 2916 units versus 1657/month in March quarter. And the USG sold 3397 units versus 2389/month in March quarter.
The cloud key sales dropped significantly which I attribute to the Unifi Elite and 199 Elite lite cloud hosting product just implemented. This subscription service takes the place of the cloud key and will bring recurring revenue.
Cameras/NVR sales are very encouraging. The G3 sold 1272 units versus 656/month in March quarter.
Unifi switches rocked with the Lites finally get enough inventory to meet demand.
The new AC CPE's and older AC equipment saw some pickup in sales due to the GPS rollout. But inventory on the new AC CPE's is scarce. The AirFibers had a good month. The Nanobeams AC 16 sold 2645 units versus 904/month in the March quarter.
The AF24 sold 124 units versus an average of 59 in the March quarter and 82/month in the December quarter.
All in all a great month.
UBNT may be a compelling opportunity. Im not sure about you guys but awesome.stock.s has provided me with some pretty good trade ideas. I messed up executing some of them but thats on me.
Yahoo Finance Insights
UBNT is down -5.00% to 48.25
I sure hope Robert P is not the one loaning the shares for the shorties. Drive price down and then take private. You can tell based on last conference call that he really is not a fan of the quarterly conference calls. Believe it or not I am long!
Nice open and not a bad 3-4 days.....
On the last earnings call Robert said “I expect AmpliFi to ramp like UniFi”. As others have noted, Amplifi is not off to a good start.
1. The current products continue to perform poorly on Amazon – which should be the product’s best channel. In the access point category on Amazon, there are 10 Unifi products in the top 20 access points. In contrast, there are no longer any Amplifi products in the top 100 routers on Amazon. 2. Amplifi appears to be doing similarly bad at retail stores, and Robert has made clear that he does not intend to spend the marketing dollars there that competitors are spending. 3. The UBNT forum community prefers using Unifi products over Amplifi products for networking in the home. 4. Larger, more experienced competitors continue to invest in the space with the most recent announcements coming from Comcast and TP-Link. Google, Netgear, and Linksys all came to market after Amplifi, have comparable or better reviews, and appear to be selling significantly more products through many more channels. 5. I pointed out months ago that the Amplifi trademark was in jeopardy, and Ubiquiti has now abandoned it. This makes it difficult to invest in a brand that any company could use for a look-alike product.
Despite all the investment and energy into Ubiquiti Labs, Amplifi has stumbled out of the gate. It is not clear how the product line recovers, and the ramp Robert is “expecting” seems like a long shot.
Harry Boxer has posted his Charts of the Day video on UBNT at TheTechTrader site noting: Ubiquiti Networks, Inc. (UBNT) rolled over, formed a wedge, dropped down to support, filled the gap, and snapped back only to roll over again to support, dropping 33 cents to 47.16, on 317,507 shares traded. If it breaks support here and rolls over again, it may really roll. I’m looking for 41 and 37 as the next targets.
Eddie - you are a good follower of UBNT. You have five posts - following ShopBLT numbers. But all your posts are negative. 7 months ago you said correctly that ShopBLT had 30,000 UAP AC Pro's in stock and that this would be too many. You also said the sell in accounting revenue recognition would over benefit UBNT short term as the recognize revenue when delivered to the distributors. But without sell through UBNT hurt down the road. All negative points all pessimistic for the short case.
So what do we know now. ShopBLT cleared all 30,000 UAP AC Pro's in the month of January. That right in less than 30 days - the Pro was waitlisted.
Today ShopBLT has begun stocking the UAP AC Pro in all 5 of their warehouses and sells about 2,000 units a day. The Tennessee and Southern California use to handle all the UBNT orders but now Pennsylvania, Illinois and Texas have portions of the 33,000 units inventoried with 11,000 ordered. Every product sold by ShopBLT is now available at all 5 warehouses.
Negative posts are often filled with some basis in fact. And your following of the ShopBLT inventory shows some interest in the story. But your data should show that sell through is escalating as well as the progress the company has made filling the channel. Your post point out how easy it is to track sell through.
So instead of looking to parse the Spiceworks followers list and criticizing the sell in method of accounting. Report the significant upgrade in the UBNT/ ShopBLT partnership. Or the recent announcement of the Hummingbird distribution agreement. Both developments that show the 'trend' within the IT community is very strong.
X axis : Stocks Price Correlation Coefficient Y axis : Quantity of stocks Sep-2016 1,000 Day Parameter 2,830 NASDAQ Stocks Price Analysis This stock mode of correlation coefficient is 0.6 In other words, the correlation coefficient of the other stock
Pera is dumping UBNT shares - OH MY!
This sucks being long with such a great company. I believe the problem is that 70% ownership so it is just Roberts show. I also believe that he probably does not mind share buy backs because his percentage goes up even more. He probably does not even mind that the share price is going lower. This sucks. He needs to decrease his position and issue a small dividend.
Robert encouraged an analyst on the last earnings call to do homework on Spiceworks. I’ve done that, and here is what I learned.
Anyone can create a Spiceworks account and log in - it is free. Spiceworks provides management tools and has also become a social network for IT managers. The company makes money through vendor advertising. Ubiquiti has a paid presence on Spiceworks and provides support for their products on the site. Many of the posts are from Ubiquiti fans, but the content is more balanced than the UBNT forum.
There are currently 159,965 Ubiquiti followers on Spiceworks. This is an increase of 229 followers since August 6, 2016. There were periods of time prior where up to 10k followers per month were added – almost certainly incented by Ubiquiti.
A good way to understand Ubiquiti customers is from the Spiceworks community survey that shows UAP-AC-PRO usage by company size: a. 68% in ‘companies’ less than 50 employees, b. 19% in companies between 51 and 250 people, c. 13% in companies between 251 and 500 people and d. 0% in companies over 500 people. [Enterprises]
Confirming the typical network size, there are currently no reviews on the site for any switches with more than 8-ports.
Worth noting is that there are 2 comments on the site for the new “enterprise” UAP-AC-HD. They are the same 2 “reviews” that Robert raved about on the Feb earnings call - but they are actually just statements of intent to use the new APs for a clubhouse and for a K-12 school.
The net is that Ubiquiti has fans on Spiceworks, but they don’t appear to be enterprise decision makers.
Robert has historically used “Enterprise” as a marketing term. He admitted as much in the Feb earnings call with his aspiration to truly compete with Meraki. The company is now making a bold push for true Enterprise customers with higher-priced products and the new ‘Elite’ program - but doing homework on Spiceworks does not build confidence that they will be successful.
My guess is that UBNT is due for a pullback in the short-run. have you guys heard of awesom-eSTOCKS. i started receiving their allerts and so far i am happy.