It's strange how a few morons on here can not deduce the fact that crypto currencies are running nearly 1:1 in correlation with the speculation in the stock markets. There is absolutely zero inverse correlation there, whereas gold-silver-u.s. treasuries-jpy-eur are all trading inverse to $SPX and $USD.
NG will fall "bigly"; it's close to a bottom here. My m.o. for trading these juiced ETFs (UGAZ/DGAZ, JNUG/JDST, UWT/DWT, TVIX, XIV) is to look at their respective underlying tickers' charts - to discern their anticipated tops/bottoms. It's best to ONLY buy at the extremes, with the macd just starting to curve up from a flat line, but the respective underlying tickers' charts must be analysed to determine when to start to scale in. E.g., for UGAZ/DGAZ, look at UNG and $natgas (which, unfortunately, shows the day's candle only at EOD; for JNUG/JDST, look at GDXJ's chart, along with $GOLD (only EOD is available), GLD, UUP and $USD (EOD is only available); look at charts of OIL and $WTIC (EOD) for UWT/DWT.
N.B. Two rules to follow: ONLY buy a the extremes, and SCALE IN (e.g., I am 66% into DGAZ - waiting to see if natgas reaches Charles Nenner's target of 3.42 intra-day . . . but I will not wait too much longer to buy my final 35%, as the cold weather is over, and summer is a long way off to start to draw down natgas.
Who ever said trading juiced ETFs is addictive is right. Once you start trading successfully these juiced tickers, it's hard to go back to the usual high-beta tickers (e.g., FCX, CLF, TECK, WLL, CHK, REN - even high-teck biotechs like NVCR, HTGM, CBIO - which I ONLY long on HUGE pullbacks, and only short at exhaustion spikes.
The trick to trading juiced ETFs is to be disciplined re WHEN to enter, and then to ONLY SCALE IN; i.e., not to make your one and final purchase, and "hope" you got it right. No brag, just fact: This m.o. (for trading juiced ETFs) has netted me over 425% last year (doing slightly worse so far this year . . . but not by much . . . IF I get this DGAZ trade right, I'm on track to match/exceed last year's performance).
One more thing: The BEST (high-beta), most RELIABLE trade over time is SHORTING TVIX . . . on a spike, especially. Look at a chart of TVIX circa August 2015. The thing spiked about 400% in less than a week, only to give it all back within 4-5 weeks, as I recall. Then TVIX continued to fall, and fall, and fall . . . until it got so low that the trustees had to do their usual inverse split, to avoid TVIX becoming a penny stock. Calculations that I did sometime last year revealed that TVIX decays circa 12.5% PER MONTH. If you had a couple of hundred thousand dollars, you could short TVIX on a spike higher, then collect 12.5% per month . . . and cash in whenever you needed the dough, or when Mr. Market seemed too toppy (like it appear to be right now).
If you DO short TVIX, look at the VIX, but also look at the vix of the vix, which is $VVIX on StockCharts. The $VVIX confirms that the spike in the VIX is real and multi-day sustainable (to figure out when TVIX is approaching its apogee). The biggest challenge with shorting TVIX on a spike . . . is your broker finding the shares to short.
Good luck with DGAZ (natgas seems to be giving up much of its gains today).
I sold the HDGE, SEF and CEF last week. Can't time a bubble. I continue to buy small amounts of BGEIX when it is under 10 and BTTRX. No timing a ubble and its demise. I have a ladder of orders widely space for IEF and have some ZROZ. I am trying to protect against a crisis in the $USD by BGEIX and long term rates falling to below zero in a depression, since all we did after the 2008 crisis is enable the bankstas to burn it down again by obfuscating all standards for which we can value most assets.
I saw an 8am price as 13,770 from a Bloomberg link. I assume that this is in local Israeli currency. Can someone acknowledge that they see the same information directly on the Tel-Aviv exchange and how does this convert into $USD?
This dog of the Dow pays a nice divvy. Seems like a safe stock in a declining industry. I bidding below the market near the 52 week low. If $USD strengthens earnings will get hit again. I'll buy $40s and try $35s. If they offered diet MezzoMix(German soda) I'd help with unit volumes
It seems with all the talk of three month highs in gold, we are about to trend down toward the 200 day moving average on the ratio. We seem stronger than during the last similar period in the ratio--2001, but we shall see how the ratio reacts to increased $USD strength and how far that may go. I have kept up the daily small buys of BGEIX, which will continue to trend small because of my age--would stop above 10. 10 marks the double i would expect by 2020 in BGEIX.
The other ratio seems to be mimicking the late 2013 period. I would buy BTTRX under 94, and we will probably test the crash low sometime over the next 6 mos., giving that opportunity--any purchases as to be small and averaged in.
"When the US Dollar gets stronger, it takes fewer dollars to buy any commodity that is priced in $USD. When the US Dollar gets weaker it takes more dollars to purchase the same commodity. The price of all US Dollar denominated commodities, like gold, will change to reflect the fact that it will take fewer or more dollars to buy that commodity. So it’s quite possible, in fact it’s almost always the case that a portion of the change in the price of gold is really just a reflection of a change in the value of the US Dollar. Sometimes that portion is insignificant. But often the opposite is true where the entire change in the gold price is simply a mathematical recalculation of an ever-changing US Dollar value. When the dollar gets strong, gold appears to go down, and vice versa. That accounts for part of the fluctuations that we see in the value of gold. The other part is an actual increase in the supply or demand for gold. If the price is higher when being measured not only in US Dollars, but also in Euros, Pounds Sterling, Japanese Yen, and every other major currency, then we know the gold demand is higher and it has actually increased in value. Consequently, if gold is higher in US Dollars while at the same time cheaper in every other currency, then we can conclude that the US Dollar has weakened, and that gold has actually lost value in all other currencies. But the price, because it is being quoted in $USD will be higher and give the illusion of gold becoming more valuable. In such a case the devaluation of gold, due to increased supply on the market, is camouflaged by a weakened US Dollar."
Of note, the last nascent bull had a roughly 6 month period where the ratio inverted clung to the 200 day moving average, consolidating the initial move, in late 2001. We may be in one of those periods now, where we could see the BGEIX:GOLD hover around the 200 MA for several months.
The stronger $USD and rising rate environment is a big negative for BGEIX here and any substantial lasting move below the 200 day in the ratio, that is at .0072, will spell trouble. Right now, at close 11.16.16, we are at .0075.
Withe bearishness increasing daily for the miners, it still seems prudent to keep risking small allocations daily to BGEIX. After all, on 21 Nov 2005, BGEIX was trading at 9.66 with gold at $492.30 per ounce. Today (11.16.2016 close) BGEIX is trading lower, at 9.15 with gold substantially higher, over $1200 per ounce. Miners are still vastly underpriced in relation to gold, but its baked in and accepted for the moment and perhaps for months to come.
If the ratio as shown just slips away from the .0072 200 day MA, we will likely see more signficant miner declines, but at least small allocations daily insure not wagering too much at high prices on a very underpriced asset in relation to its commodity.
It is all about the $usd. I believe the real breakdown was Aug. 15th, and has been recovering since the 17th for the re-test. This is going on today, Aug. 30. It is too early to call but if you chart the USD$ vs the other majors the dollar looks like it is heading lower. The British Pound would be the exception. The Canadian Dollar looks like a great buy right now to me. Oil is about to break the neckline of a major head and shoulders at $50. The SP500 looks like it is going higher. The ten year yield is going up for a short while, while still very very low. This week will tell us an awful lot, the problem is by the time one can be sure of the true direction, it is too late to catch the whole move. Especially if it down. Silver hit $18.46 bounced nicely but really needs to take back $18.80. I am much better at bottoms than tops and GPL looks like it bottomed to me. Not just because I bought it instead of more EXK, either. Not that there is much volume in any of the stocks, yesterday, up an day, to show any conviction.
A 1/4 point talks and B$ talk walks. Nobody really believes there will be a September hike do they? 8/29/2016 11:39pm "For Entertainment Purposes Only"*tm TherLorax
The $USD is up against every major currency except the pound. how much of a bounce it gets will determine the Near-term fate of PM'S. More BS about raising rates will have an effect, but how long will that effect last? LESS and less every time they say it and do nothing. There is the potential for a small $usd bounce that could last as long as a month. It's the dollar after all, the MOST controlled, manipulated, and worthless asset in the world it's all just DEBT. "For Entertainment Purposes Only" *tm TheLorax
If I had to guess, they took sliver down first because it's easier to control. Siver will go where gold goes, gold will go the opisite of the dollar. Even though the $usd is bouncing off of a support line, I feel it broke the real support and is going to re-test the break-down of my usd trendline. I am no good at timing in general, so this one is especially tough. My best buess is down with siver and gold into opt. exp. then up until the election, thanksgiving, timeframe. The manipulation follows psychology so the logical solution would be get everyone that would listen in by thanksgiving and give them big losses to take back at Christmas. "For Entertainment Purposes ONLY" *tm TheLorax
Does $18 silver sound a little more likely now? CDE could easily go back to 9. Hl to $4.50 Exk possibly as low as $3.85. Those are extremes, but we know that they are necessary to keep the heavily margined swing traders out of the game. They will do everything in their power to get you to sell your shares. I can't help but feel they haven't inflicted enough pain on us longs. I've been through it before and it hurts. That's not to say that this could be close to the end, but it doesn't fell like it yet. I hate to say. What ever line they come up with out of their J hole this week will probably move the $usd up. Just remember talk is cheap, and getting cheaper every time they say they will raise and don't. GOOD LUCK "For Entertainment Purposes Only" *tm The Lorax