It looks like front month VIX closed at 10.69 This should put the close to for UVXY to 22.88
tomorrow front month should overlap spot VIX (10.15) If we get a bullish opening and VIX drops below 10, front month VIX will follow. That is about a 69 cents drop from 10.69, or 6.4%. Double that to match UVXY and UVXY should trade a few pennies below $20.
If spot and front month meet in the middle (most likely) then UVXY should trade around 21.70 by the end of the day.
NK strikes again, UVXY will hit $25
I WAS SO WRONG ON UVXY ! MOST OF THE TIME WHEN I SELL TO CUT LOSS, IT WILL GO UP. HOPEFULLY MY MOVE TODAY WILL HELP ALL LONGS HERE. Cons, you're RIGHT ON YOUR PREDICTION !
this is too easy to short. going to close my short position by EOW. UP OVER 50 PERCENT. waited 1 month, 2 nuclear war threats, hurricanes, Congress shutdown threats, etc. lesson is, don't let the media and historical trends sway your investments. patience is key. you'll never be able to time the market. markets can remain illogical longer than you can stay liquid. trade carefully my friends and GLTA.
PS. Lobster where are you man? Bagholder heaven??
Tuesday is VIX futures roll over day. Front month turns from 11 to almost 14. By Friday uvxy should trade around $21 and below $10 by Christmas
if and only if they announce a formula to calculate the correlation between uvxy and ^vix, this is a scam and it is more risky than Vegas casino: on a blackjack table, retail participants have roughly 50/50 chance and the "formula" is predefined, but retail investors on UVXY have 0% chance.
Are we heading for a big stock market crash?
How overvalued is the US stockmarket?
One of the most commonly used market valuation measures is the Shiller price/earnings ratio (also known as the Cape, or cyclically adjusted p/e). This looks at the price of the market compared to earnings averaged over ten years (which irons out fluctuations due to the business cycle). The S&P 500 is currently on a Cape of just over 30. That’s higher than at any point in history (including prior to the 1929 and 2008 crashes) except for the tech bubble, when the Cape peaked at 44.
What about other measures? Economist Andrew Smithers keeps a close eye on Tobin’s Q, which compares the market value of the companies in an index with their book value. The basic idea is that if it would be more expensive to buy all the companies in the index rather than setting them up from scratch, then the market is overvalued. On this measure, reckons Smithers, the US market is overvalued by about 70% – less expensive than in 1929 and 2000, but expensive nonetheless.
Are we heading for a big stockmarket crash? - MoneyWeek
Equities are overvalued by pretty much any measure. Does that mean we're heading for a stockmarket crash? And what can you do about it if it does?
Another All time HIGH could happen today. 6 straight days. Is this normal based on whats going on in the world. Who knows anymore. Whos really buying equities at these prices , aside from computers.
VIX 9.97. By tomorrow 4PM front month volatility VIX sept, that trades at 10.75 should match the spot vix. That is a 7% drop. Double it to match UVXY and UVXY should trade at under $21 by tomorrow afternoon, IF vix spot stays at 9.97 or lower
welp, I lost 2300 of the 4000 I made on this pig. Can't say I would not buy here at 23.30. Unfortunately, the markets can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent. What a pig hor market
The car represents longs and UVXY is the train LOL. Hopefully no one is still optimistic about this POS.
This doesn't happen often but want to say you might want to stay out of UVXY for tuesday and wednesday. Wednesday is futures expiration, plus FOMC meeting day. Both of these are high predictors of XIV going up. My neural network system adjusts the prediction towards XIV when either of these conditions are met, with a pretty strong adjustment towards "long XIV/short UVXY". This page also came to the same conclusion: http://www.tradingtheodds.com/2014/11/trading-volatility-xiv-seasonalities/
Trading Volatility – XIV Seasonalities | TRADING THE ODDS
volatility will go much higher at some points
UVXY will go up at those points
the market is overbought a lot
Conseq - Front month has about 5% to fall still by Tuesday's close but that does not translate into a 10% drop for UVXY - Because UVXY is based on a 30 day future not a 1 day. So for today you should really be lookin at the back month to figure youre UVXY price. Back month is 29 days out and has 24% left to drop given the current VIX price of 10.08 and back month price of 12.5.
This one is so manipulated that it's not even funny anymore all those reverse splits. No brainer that market is overvalued and ticking bomb begging for reversal, they just faking market and making it go up until it pops i'll say we'll see solid correction by December if not then crash will come soon after.
And here comes the bounce back. WHEEEEEEEEE!!!!!
problem with this is the contango. It is constantly rolling to a higher vix contract then when nothing happens the vix falls. without a catalyst the market at worst drifts sideways. when the market finally rolls over only a few privileged people know. for all the rest of the lemmings just follow the direction. right now the market seems range bound. Only a nk missile hitting a us or allied land mass could sell things or a terrorist strike on us soil. and no one should hope for those.
Netanyahu and Israel are making deals with the Devil (TrumpTrash). I predict Israel will be nuked first with todays episode of Trash the earth.
where does all this lost money go to the banks ?
Don't try to catch a bottom, this one never gets oversold...One of the worst trading instruments in the history of the world....Why would (DID) the SEC let this scam come to market....TVIX, too....