my apologies to the longs who were suckered in this POS with fear and lies. every day its another poster saying they learned their lesson. only if the pumpers here would go away....
Made one bad trade with UVXY that wiped out all my gains plus more....I feel like having a heart attack every day with is POS. I'm out and a hard lesson learned: always short when this POS pops. PERIOD.
Looks like UVXY has a floor at 22 for now. I'm expecting a 1% selloff after the announcement today. I will keep tight stops. If the market just keeps going higher to the edge of the cliff, then I will expect next stop for uvxy to be a little below 20, with 19.5 as max pain. I'm assuming it will get there in 2 weeks, and first week of October is when I'm looking to be aggressive short. I'm also expecting North Korea to do something around then. For now, chase the market higher carefully and buy on dips, while slowly building a short position. The market looks pretty toppy here.
It looks like front month VIX closed at 10.69 This should put the close to for UVXY to 22.88
tomorrow front month should overlap spot VIX (10.15) If we get a bullish opening and VIX drops below 10, front month VIX will follow. That is about a 69 cents drop from 10.69, or 6.4%. Double that to match UVXY and UVXY should trade a few pennies below $20.
If spot and front month meet in the middle (most likely) then UVXY should trade around 21.70 by the end of the day.
NK strikes again, UVXY will hit $25
Short of the fed saying it's not raising rates again the market is going lower. We have retailers warning. We have major shipping companies warning. We have ford idling most of its plants until end of year. then after all these bad news we have market analysts and advisors saying things are not bad. keep buying the news could have been worse. No reason to panic. that tells me they want people to keep buying while they get out of their positions and go short. the fed is removing the punch bowl. the market is topping. the only temporary wild card is tax reform. personally I think it is a disaster for the American taxpayer to be cutting corporate taxes while running a deficit and massive debt. what moron cuts taxes to the rich and add more debt to the American public and call that making America great?? oh wait Trump does.
I WAS SO WRONG ON UVXY ! MOST OF THE TIME WHEN I SELL TO CUT LOSS, IT WILL GO UP. HOPEFULLY MY MOVE TODAY WILL HELP ALL LONGS HERE. Cons, you're RIGHT ON YOUR PREDICTION !
Get short, and stay short. Trade around a core; don't be too greedy. It's worked for about 5 years.
Here we go!
this is too easy to short. going to close my short position by EOW. UP OVER 50 PERCENT. waited 1 month, 2 nuclear war threats, hurricanes, Congress shutdown threats, etc. lesson is, don't let the media and historical trends sway your investments. patience is key. you'll never be able to time the market. markets can remain illogical longer than you can stay liquid. trade carefully my friends and GLTA.
PS. Lobster where are you man? Bagholder heaven??
This is stupid! all I can say
Many of us lost so much in this insane market we are now in this stage: I no longer worry about any more loss, just kill me with more insanity!
Tuesday is VIX futures roll over day. Front month turns from 11 to almost 14. By Friday uvxy should trade around $21 and below $10 by Christmas
Another All time HIGH could happen today. 6 straight days. Is this normal based on whats going on in the world. Who knows anymore. Whos really buying equities at these prices , aside from computers.
if and only if they announce a formula to calculate the correlation between uvxy and ^vix, this is a scam and it is more risky than Vegas casino: on a blackjack table, retail participants have roughly 50/50 chance and the "formula" is predefined, but retail investors on UVXY have 0% chance.
TOLD YOU ! THIS POS GOES UP AFTER I'VE SOLD ALL. WwwwTttttFFFffffffff...
Are we heading for a big stock market crash?
How overvalued is the US stockmarket?
One of the most commonly used market valuation measures is the Shiller price/earnings ratio (also known as the Cape, or cyclically adjusted p/e). This looks at the price of the market compared to earnings averaged over ten years (which irons out fluctuations due to the business cycle). The S&P 500 is currently on a Cape of just over 30. That’s higher than at any point in history (including prior to the 1929 and 2008 crashes) except for the tech bubble, when the Cape peaked at 44.
What about other measures? Economist Andrew Smithers keeps a close eye on Tobin’s Q, which compares the market value of the companies in an index with their book value. The basic idea is that if it would be more expensive to buy all the companies in the index rather than setting them up from scratch, then the market is overvalued. On this measure, reckons Smithers, the US market is overvalued by about 70% – less expensive than in 1929 and 2000, but expensive nonetheless.
Are we heading for a big stockmarket crash? - MoneyWeek
Equities are overvalued by pretty much any measure. Does that mean we're heading for a stockmarket crash? And what can you do about it if it does?
VIX 9.97. By tomorrow 4PM front month volatility VIX sept, that trades at 10.75 should match the spot vix. That is a 7% drop. Double it to match UVXY and UVXY should trade at under $21 by tomorrow afternoon, IF vix spot stays at 9.97 or lower
welp, I lost 2300 of the 4000 I made on this pig. Can't say I would not buy here at 23.30. Unfortunately, the markets can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent. What a pig hor market
Conseq - Stop with your stupid dribble - UVXY is not based on the 1 day out future but a 30 day future gotten by weighing the front and back month to get 30 days.
I think the good news is the market did not rally hard on the fed news. in fact it was pretty flat. tells me the market is very close to a top. only amazing earnings or corporate tax cuts could drive the market higher.