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ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY)

BATS - BATS Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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16.01+0.03 (+0.19%)
At close: 04:00PM EDT
16.09 +0.08 (+0.50%)
After hours: 07:59PM EDT
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  • D
    David
    •By Mark Hurlburt:
    ~ The bear market for stocks isn’t over. In fact, it may have aways to go. That’s because — even with the S&P 500 16% below its all-time high, and both the Nasdaq Composite and the Russell 2000 Index into bear-market territory — many investors are more focused on when and where to invest in stocks than worried about the possibility of further, steep declines.

    This bottom-fishing is more reminiscent of the “slope of hope” that bear markets typically descend than the “wall of worry” bull markets like to climb. That doesn’t mean the U.S. stock market couldn’t mount an impressive rally from current levels. If it does, it more likely would be a bear-market rally than the beginning of a new bull-market leg that takes the major market averages to new all-time highs.

    A review of past bear markets suggests that, when the current bear market does hit bottom, few investors will even be contemplating that possibility. We either won’t even be paying attention, having grown so dejected as to have thrown in the towel, or will consider any sign of market strength as a bear market trap.

    That’s not Wall Street’s current mood. Bear-market psychology follows a progression that is similar to what psychologists call the five stages of grief — denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance. Here’s how they manifest in the stock market:

    Denial — In this initial stage, the prevailing view is that stock-market weakness is nothing more than a buying opportunity. Far from getting angry (see next stage), investors remain quite sanguine, since the market’s pullback offers an opportunity to buy stocks more cheaply than would have been the case had the bull market kept going.
    Anger — Denial becomes increasingly difficult to sustain as the market’s pullback becomes too severe. Investors’ mood eventually morphs into anger, as they rail against the unfairness of the pullback. A hallmark of this stage is where investors see the pullback as a personal affront — as if the market cares whether you or I lose money.
    Bargaining — In this stage, investors’ redirect their energies to figuring out if they can maintain their lifestyles despite the hit to their portfolio; retirees rejigger their financial plans. Investors promise to give up that fancy new car or the European vacation — the fat from their budgets — so long as they don’t have to cut bone.
    Depression — As the market continues to slide, the realization sets in that cutting the fat isn’t going to be enough. Major changes in lifestyle will be required. Near-retirees work for longer than originally planned; retirees go back to work.
    Acceptance — In this final stage, investors throw in the towel. They surrender to the bear market and stop even fantasizing about when it might end. They treat any sign of market strength as a suckers’ rally, luring the gullible into losing more money on the next leg down. Where we are now in this cycle
    My impression is that we’re no further through this five-stage cycle than the second one. There are individual exceptions, of course, since not all investors progress at the same pace. But the preponderance of the attitudes I encounter are either that the pullback is a buying opportunity (stage one) or that the market’s weakness is profoundly unfair (stage two).

    Investors’ progression through these stages must be genuine. As I noted last week, it’s not meaningful to say you’ve thrown in the towel, only to quickly jump on the bullish bandwagon at the first sign of market strength. Such a reaction is little more than stage-one behavior in disguise.

    Which brings me to recent claims that we’re seeing signs of capitulation on Wall Street. If the capitulation were real, that would be evidence that we’re in stage five. But I’m skeptical: In a genuine capitulation, there is no eagerness to detect capitulation. Key hallmarks of genuine capitulation are apathy and indifference.

    Not all declines go through all five stages, of course, just as not all corrections turn into major bear markets. So this discussion doesn’t mean the market still has a lot further to fall. But if the bulls want to claim the force of contrarian analysis to support their belief in a rally, there needs to be genuine capitulation. Otherwise, the bulls’ arguments are simply evidence that the market’s decline is in early innings.
    •Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch.
  • 7
    777
    This certainly qualifies as Red Dawn event and I don't think the big one has hit yet. ‘Growth scare’ strikes U.S. stocks as estimated $5 trillion to $8 trillion of household wealth evaporates in five months
    Last Updated: May 20, 2022 at 4:34 p.m. ET Sounds like they believe fear hit yesterday. Keep your fingers on the trigger button next week. Amid a sea of red in U.S. stock markets for much of Friday, a fundamental shift in investors’ thinking appeared to be taking hold, one which analysts describe as a “growth scare.”

    A “growth scare” is characterized by a correction in anticipation of slowing economic growth, even if such a slowdown hasn’t yet been borne out by the data. Though the DowJones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.03% eked out a slight gain into the closing bell on Friday, it still booked its longest streak of weekly losses in 90 years, while the S&P 500 SPX, +0.01% narrowly averted a bear-market finish. Meanwhile, investors flocked to Treasurys and the dollar as safe havens of choice.

    Before the final minutes of trading, a broad-based selloff in equities punished every industry and every stock strategy —- from value and small-cap to growth, as well as the consumer-discretionary, energy, utilities, financial and tech sectors. Economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM, -0.82% estimate that U.S. household wealth has fallen by $5 trillion to $8 trillion in 2022, driven largely by falling equity prices. And BofA Securities strategists ranked U.S. equities as this year’s worst-performing asset class, as well as the third-biggest loser among global stocks ahead of only Chinese and German equities, based on data through Wednesday.
  • 7
    777
    Loading VIX calls pre-market for a 72 hour trade cycle. Holding 20% asset invstment in VIX long term. Today will be glorious. The monthly expiration of options tied to equities and exchange-traded funds is notorious for stirring up volatility, and the next event takes place on Friday. Traders will close old positions for an estimated $1.9 trillion of derivatives while rolling out new exposures, all with the S&P 500 on the brink of a bear market.

    This time round, $460 billion of derivatives across single stocks is scheduled to expire, and $855 billion of S&P 500-linked contracts will run out, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategist Rocky Fishman.
  • M
    Mitchell
    A recent survey by BofA Global Research showed fund managers now expect the Fed to step in at 3,529 on the S&P 500, compared with expectations of 3,700 in February. Such a drop would constitute a 26% decline from the S&P’s Jan. 3 closing high.

    The index, which was recently at 3,840, is already down around 20% from that high this year on an intraday basis - putting it on track to confirm a bear market, according to some definitions. [.N]

    "The Fed has bigger fish to fry and that's the inflation problem," said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Hermes, who is increasing his cash levels. "The 'Fed put' is kaput until the central bank is confident that they're no longer behind the curve."

    As a result, some investors are digging in for a long slog. BofA’s survey showed cash allocations at a two-decade high, while bets against technology stocks stand at their highest since 2006.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-market-looms-battered-wall-175441811.html
    The Federal Reserve's determination to raise interest rates until it squashes the highest inflation in decades is darkening the outlook across Wall Street, as U.S. stocks stand on the cusp of a bear market and warnings of a recession grow louder. At
    The Federal Reserve's determination to raise interest rates until it squashes the highest inflation in decades is darkening the outlook across Wall Street, as U.S. stocks stand on the cusp of a bear market and warnings of a recession grow louder. At
    finance.yahoo.com
  • K
    Karl
    SOFI was green yesterday and up 8% today.. finally a bottom there?
  • 7
    777
    They are going to have a really hard time coming up with a reason to get longs moving. The "buy at the low" won't work as people are finally awake as to how dire things really are. Plenty of obvious undeniable reasons for bear traders and those will only increase. We should not need to wait long to see the awaited Red Dawn event. Buy more VIX plays on any dips. People are looking at historical's but there has never been a situation like this before. 2008 black monday was only 7%ish DJI drop and that was historical. We had 3.6 just yesterday. It doesn't matter what happens today or Friday. There is nothing that can stop the avalanche that is coming to this market. I called a 1000 pt drop yesterday premarket and 1000's as well. Did not expect it would happen so soon but doubled up VIX call 30+40 options on Tuesday. Nice 28% 1 day gain. If VIX drops below 30 I will add another 10%. This is game over. No one is buying their BS anymore. Level 2 is showing we may see a run at open...but day end will be as bad or worse than yesterday. Not often that investors get free money plays like this. Short market..Buy VIX instruments and make $$$$$$
  • m
    mott
    If this is true time to play arbitrage on a 30% markdown: Yahoo Finance Video
    Twitter executives say deal with Elon Musk is not ‘on hold’
    Thu, May 19, 2022, 5:02 PM
  • H
    HW Graff, an Economic Savant
    I lost 470K on several big oil hedge contracts from 2016 to 2020 time frame, betting on quick oil price recovery that never came, and down 190K on Short Cover tvix during first week of covid fear sudden spike in Mar 2020.. two of the biggest losses in 10 years of day trading .. funny thing is I had been calling WTI oil price at $30 a barrel way too low not sustainable throughout 2019 and 2020, but always got screwed as oil price continued moving down to even negative territory -$35 a barrel WTI the lowest in 2020. I had been calling for a potential tvix "black death" spike in feb 2020, but the market kept doing well and moving up despite rising covid crisis, finally I lost patience and shorted TVIX for quick gain as usual.. boom, the tivix spiked to stratosphere two weeks later. My timing were always off despite seeing those things coming every time.. i have a feeling this year's uvxy game could be a turning point to settle my big defeats from before as i am getting comfortable with flows.. all i ever want is to breakeven losses first then make 1 million net gain to prove to myself, then i will quit day trading forever...it is not about the money, i am already rich. it is all about being persistant and stand up from I fall and defeat those who had screwed me in the past.. i hope with good timing and patience and leverage on my data analysis expertise, I will settle the score for once and for all this year being 2022 !!!
  • M
    My Name is Nobody
    Welcome to the Bear Market Shuffle🙃 Shout out to Amy for another really nice play on RDBX in all of this. You go girl! I only wish I would have bought in when you recommended it 🙂✌️
  • K
    Karl
    As soon as HW Graff aka BIGG
    Gives us his predictions we can trade accordingly.. 😂
    #InverseGrifterETF
  • m
    mott
    Stay long SQQQ, smaller long position in SPXS, play takeover arbitrage by being long BKI and TWTR. I think/hope those work for a while.
  • A
    Anonymous
    Its happening infront of your eyes !! don't doubt !!...............GL
  • T
    Toan
    Can someone please explain to me why UVXY is down on days with negative markets (S&P, Nasdaq, Dow...). How the price is calculated with factors tied to the markets over all. The price can be manipulated by whomever running this inverse EFT? Thanks.
  • j
    jack
    Karl said. The market heard. Karl lost we all made $
    15 hours ago Karl
    Tomorrow UVXY will drop like a stone.. bear rally long stocks and ETFs!
    Watch the tide!!
  • 7
    777
    This is the real question. Based on most of the rubbish posted here will likely go over many heads but ask yourself this question. Your answer should lead you as to investment direction. What does this mean for traders? Nothing good - as Tadesse concludes, equity strategies do not fare well in scenarios of high inflation and declining growth (i.e. stagflation), as companies struggle with falling revenues and rising costs, lower growth causes lower earnings, and higher rates combined with an increase in the equity-risk premium negatively impact valuations. And while SocGen notes, that "cash flow and balance-sheet strength would matter for relative performance here", we would add that the real question is how fast does the market expect inflation to shrink back to the 2-3% range. The answer to that question will determine most investing strategies for the next year or so.

    For those unable or unwilling to answer, a simple heuristic is that strategies that pay high dividends at cheap valuations (such as quality income) should do well in this environment. So should equity strategies dominated by firms with pricing power, such as those in the upstream of the production chain, as should defensive equity strategies with stable cash flows and relative pricing power (such as utilities, the quality and quality income factors). Pair trades can use these as the long legs, offset with shorts among cyclical and aggressive growth strategies.
  • R
    Rich
    This market reminds me of this song
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FfBwsG8ubFw
    Bullish
  • J
    John
    I don't quite understand the strategy with VIX. Looking at the chart since 2011, I don't see a lot of correlation to anything. Maybe someone could explain?
  • 7
    777
    There is no logic to the market. The world is on the verge of halt due to diesel shortage which will move inflation from 8.7% their fake number..it's really over 25% already and could go to 40%. In weeks when the East Coast comes to a screeching halt. Will they still pump the market? Well it appears so. I am in 10% of my market assets on VIX calls. Everything else is cash assets apart from my gold which I never sell nor will. I made a commit to stay at this level but if the pre-market today holds. I will double up on VIX. There is no way the avalanche doesn't happen based on reality. There is a ton of market liquidity..more than in at least the last 20 yrs. The only way I can explain what is happening is they are baiting people to go long. I may lose big but I cannot do anything but bet against this market based on every indicator available. There is nothing that shows positive apart from somehow Trump gets put back in within months. If that happens..cool I will gladly take a 20% hit to see America restored. Kudos to those shorting VIX instruments...take your profits to the bank. It cannot last unless there is a restoration of sanity....I cannot bet on that. GL
  • R
    Raybans
    Americans know what caused inflation to get jump started. Lieing about it only tells people about the nature of your character. Nobody is being fooled. Oil was already rising before Ukraine. The pandemic may have influenced chip shortages due to a shift in demand but the stimulus checks wiped out inventories and then some. And new restrictions on truckers at the Los Angeles ports has created a log jam of ships waiting to be off loaded because the terminals are cluttered with containers that are not being trucked out. It doesn't matter if China locks down because our ports are not receiving. This last problem has a solution but requires actually doing something.
  • A
    Anonymous
    Anyone sensing a Gap down on DOW and Gap up on VIX on Monday ??
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