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Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC)

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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175.25+6.07 (+3.59%)
At close: 4:00PM EDT
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  • B
    Brian
    Look at the balance sheet: $4.5 billion Debt. Free cash flow $367 million, No turn over. Puuh... This can go to zero every second!!
  • D
    Dan L.
    This valuation based on lost revenue is out of control. COVID-19 cases and deaths are climbing, so travel is going down significantly. Business travel decreases significantly. If they open entirely, they will be bleeding money for well over a year here. Great short now! Love the puts!
  • r
    robert
    $TSLA conversation
    For the record.......Its not how many cars you make, Its how many cars you sell. This is important.
    The ENTIRE automotive sector is in complete collapse, and Tesla just happens to be in the automotive sector.

    Berlin is on hold, model S is real tired, model X is a warranty nightmare, model 3/Y not sure if the 3 will give up sales to the 3, no semi, no roadster, no 400000 orders for the Y, no robotaxi, no fsd (yet people paid for it), $11.6B debt......

    Tesla in 17 years has NEVER had an annual profit, and that streak is very safe.
    $spy
    $tvix
    $sqqq
    $xom
    $lyv
    $grub
    $uber
    $vac
  • D
    Drone
    It is a miracle to see this stock at this price in a time where there is literally no travel and people trying to survive. MVW seems to rely mostly on their existing customer for sales. I wonder how long a company can survive on such a sales model. I hear from my friends in Orlando that the city is dead with all the parks at lowest to no visits. It is hard to even believe that someone will buy timeshare in this market conditions that we live in when there are hotels and other options available at 1/3rd of the price to rent. I do not see any growth in this business for next 5 years. The Beta for this business needs to be recalculated and new risky discount rates need to be used for valuation. With their revenue almost at 30% of pre-covid days, they may probably have to cut more cost meaning more layoffs. Considering their cash position and the securitization market that is ahead of them with such low sales, it will be an interesting company to watch.
    My prediction is that it is a very tough road ahead for timeshare business and for this company to keep afloat. I do not think that market has stabilized yet. I think this stock is not work more than $60 considering the risk and return at this point of time.
  • A
    Anonymous
    excessively over priced/valued right now. Defaults and declining net new sales for years to come.
    Bearish
  • D
    Drone
    Market and Economy are mutually exclusive in today's world more than before. Puts at play.... The 2nd Quarter results in July is when we will see the abyss... In post COVID world, it will be a nightmare to manage this business and make this model work. Marriott announced more furloughs, extension of furlough and layoffs.
    Bearish
  • r
    robert
    $SPY conversation
    If we were at war and in 8 months we lost 1.235.000 people with no end in sight, would the markets around the world be parabolic??

    Forget the case spikes, it the death spikes that is so quiet. Yesterday was the largest single day of loss of life, today is on pace to beat that number.
    $rcl $ual $qqq $wynn $vac $hlt
  • P
    PF Wagner
    Changed my mind... I'll buy back in the $20s.
  • A
    Anonymous
    Down she blows...here comes fair value of $60/Share. Net New sales will be in severe decline over next 2+ years. Rental/management fees...which is where VAC makes it money after a unit/time is sold will be down significantly. Defaults on loans of past sales will be up. Revenues from 'extras/foods/incidentals will all be down with capacity levels limited.
    Bearish
  • D
    Drone
    I heard the CEO in CNBC Cramer. They did $17 million this quarter. I am pleasantly surprised that they even did 5% to 6% of last year. I think it is going to be a slow and long recovery for VAC. I should have shorted it when it was over $100. I think that the market will fall again when the results of 2nd Q are announced next month. Right now, every company has to be revalued based on the current macro economic conditions. I think Beta based on prior index and stock data might not be applicable. Bearish short term because I have no idea about long term in this market.
    Bearish
  • D
    Dan L.
    No justification for its recent bump in stock price. Looks like a good time to short it back to the 50s. Cheers!
  • D
    Drone
    Baby boomers era ending. Airbnb and other options available. Loss of personal retirement savings due to COVID. Travel paralysis. Social distancing that can severely restrict sale of timeshares. Struggling industry to get new customers and depending on existing owners may find it very difficult to sell points. 2nd Q results will be a disaster.. Loan delinquencies and the uncertainly with the business model makes me bearish on this stock.
  • D
    Drone
    Digital is the buzz world in earnings call for VAC. I am curious to know what % of total revenue is directly from Digital Sales? I wonder if they are talking about lead generations through website, email communications and other oft repeated tasks in the industry. It is near to impossible to sell timeshare online digitally to new customers.. Are they referring to their existing customers buying extra points through some online process? It is a bag of mixed BS...lol... Can any analyst enlighten me? I am holding it but might short this baby soon.
    Bearish
  • A
    Anonymous
    Great way to own this is through a hedge fund trading at 60% discount SVCTF. Owns this and many other dynamic small and mid cap growth stocks. Also owns a huge position in Ebay and Ebay calls. Has a 20% % compound average since 1987. It is the largest of the 5 funds I own. For those looking for a break from the ups and downs of individual stock ownership.
  • M
    Mel
    time to buy
  • D
    Dan L.
    Now that reality has set in, any speculation on how low it goes in the next 1-2 months?
    Bearish
  • r
    robert
    $SDS conversation
    This last week we broke some records
    3 weeks to break 16 million FILING for unemployment (which means lots more)
    1 week USA stocks had their best week in 45 years.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/16-million-people-just-got-laid-off-but-us-stocks-had-their-best-week-in-45-years-2020-04-10?mod=mw_latestnews
    $tsla
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    $aapl
    $fb
    $wing
    $vac
    $lyn
    $uber
  • s
    spacebee
    2019 prices with half a or less revenue?
    Bearish
  • w
    weathermannbc
    I Disagree Lou, Covid is spiking to all time high stats, the 2nd wave is here and getting stronger... people are NOT traveling, and certainly are not renting beach property where throngs of people could gather. Moreover, with Covid restrictions and another probable lock-down soon coming, VAC is dead meat, and is a great short / certain sell at these recent gains. Sell if you are a long, and short the hell outta this otherwise... I'm looking for $30ish a share soon (or lower)... maybe even bankruptcy will be in the cards.
  • a
    anonymous
    Cramer pumping up this stock which is already at a 52 week high so that he can short it.