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Russell 2000 Futures
Vale S.A. (VALE)
NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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Vale S.A’s VALE investment in the Salobo III mine expansion was 81% complete at the end of third-quarter 2021. This expansion will increase the mill throughput capacity by 50% and add to gold production in 2023. It anticipates that the Salobo expansion is scheduled to commence in the second half of 2022.
At Vale's Voisey's Bay operation, physical completion of the Voisey's Bay underground mine expansion (Reid Brook and Eastern Deeps underground mines) was 70% completed at the end of the third quarter. In June, Vale achieved the first ore production from the Reedbrook underground mine, which is likely to be one of the most sustainable sources of cobalt in the world. Eastern Deeps is expected to start in 2022.
Iron ore continues to rise in the early hours of Wednesday morning in China trade. At this time, its increase is 2.32% to 596 yuan. Let's keep an eye open, and keep hope that prices will remain with a good green quote until the end of the session. Good Luck to all players .
Brazil’s economy has returned to pre-pandemic levels, supported by booming terms of trade and robust private sector credit growth, and one of the biggest stimulus packages in emerging markets–nearly 4 percent of GDP in emergency cash transfers alone in 2020.
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Brazil and the IMF
The country has been hit hard by the pandemic, however. COVID-19 has claimed the lives of more than 550,000 Brazilians, the second highest death toll worldwide. Renewed lockdowns following a severe second wave and the rollout of vaccinations have helped bring down infections since April, with new daily COVID-19 cases and deaths falling significantly from their peaks. But rates of unemployment and poverty remain high. Inflation too has surged, weighing on the outlook.
Growth is projected to rebound to 5.3 percent in 2021. Sustaining the recovery, however, will require further institutional reforms to raise labor productivity growth and foster private sector-led investment.
As the largest steel producer and exporter, China's demand for iron ore has been strong, but it depends heavily on imports. About 80 percent of iron ore resources come from abroad, and 60 percent of China's iron ore resources come from Australia.
you can see how Brazil, one of the so called "Brics" (Brazil , Russia, india, China) could just take geopolitical edge, even with the falling demand.... markets... funny old thing, I think US australia and UK anounced a venuture to limit chinese growth, and china is building ever more despite the "slump", its records.
Iron ore rising 7% on tuesday morning in China Trade .......
Vale's Voisey's Bay Mine
Miner of the Year
Bought 40,000 shares under $12 and don’t even look at Iron Ore prices. I’m buying for the nickel production which is severely undervalued. Nickel has replaced cobalt in most EV battery cells including ALL of Tesla batteries. It’s insane to me that you can buy VALE this cheap. Nickel sales will break new records every year for the next decade.
A good spread of November and December futures iron ore .. 10 bucks on the rise !!
Some of my observations/analysis:
1) iron ore last few years cycles from Nov to July in uptrend, July to Nov in downtrend
2) VALE since 2020, has almost 100% positive correlation to iron ore, while in the past not so extreme, even negative for months. VALE being used as an iron ore ETF - it's not... it is a stock. This could end at any time. People are not valuing any other aspect of this company except iron ore biz.
3) In 2019 iron ore was often in the 70-80's range and VALE was about 15
4) My 'downtrend analysis' tells me 11 is roughly the short term low (but 10.2 also possible)
5) High probability of 17 to 18 VALE stock price by Jan 2022, may drop some in the Spring 2022.
6) likely see a rally in iron ore prices to 150 by Jan 2022.
Let me know what you think...
VALE is headed back to $18.00/$19.00. They are still the right company at the right time with the right product in the right industry. And they are a world class company.
Just when you want to give up and unload your shares... it will start to turn around. Outlook for iron ore price can change quickly. When steel production picks up there could even be iron ore shortages again like this time last year. Everyone seems to think the stock price will continue to drop, lot's of haters and short sellers... this is a great contrarian signal. After a 50% drop they are still trying to pickup pennies in front of a steamroller. The stock price is at a great discount to its fundamentals. Accumulating here.
Iron ore rose more than 12% in two days and continues to rise and stocks have not followed. I think it's going to go up so fast that a lot of people that are out, will lose a lot of money .
I'm trading by the technicals here since I'm noticing a bullish divergence on the MACD. Probably getting over the 50 EMA, but not so sure about the 200.
A study promulgated by Arcelor Mittal, the world's leading steel producer is revealing.
“Steel will play an important role in all renewables, including and especially solar and wind. Each new MW of solar power requires between 35 to 45 tons of steel, and each new MW of wind power requires 120 to 180 tons of steel. JUST SAYIN collect your dividend till the next steel boom. It may be sooner than you think.
Why I think the analysts sitting in a cubicle on Wall St have got it wrong...
1) rampant price inflation
2) China crisis maybe transitory (very likely)
3) China steel production curbs due to pollution removed in January 2022 after goals met
4) World needs steel as always, ep with EV/ESG overhaul
5) Another iron ore supply crisis could develop like last year (started Nov 2020)
6) USA infrastructure spending bill passed
7) Iron ore producers reduce supply
8) ESG costs impact iron ore mining costs
9) Other countries take advantage of opportunity and expand steel production
10) Analysts are lazy and don't really do research. [Strong Buy rated at 23, Strong Sell at 12]
Nickel futures at $21k+, a 10-year high
Forget orders at 10$ even 11$,Vale back over 14 by end this week
One of the biggest drags on this stock is that the Brazil Stock Market (BOVESPA) is down about 30,000 points... independent of iron ore prices, a recovery in the BOVESPA will start pumping up this undervalued company.
Vale is Brazil . Can’t hurt them . Otherwise everyone will suffer . Big money for economy.
LAST CHG OPEN HIGH LOW DATE/TIME
Iron Ore 62% Fe, CFR China (TSI) Futures Nov 2021 $94.66 1.27 $0.00 $95.99 $93.41 Nov 23, 2021 3:20 a.m.
Iron Ore 62% Fe, CFR China (TSI) Futures Dec 2021 $100.12 3.65 $0.00 $104.54 $95.66 Nov 23, 2021 8:06 a.m.
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