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Vista Gold Corp. (VGZ)

NYSE American - Nasdaq Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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0.9550+0.0170 (+1.81%)
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  • T
    Tom
    At age 30 in 1985 you receive a windfall
    and decide to parlay the money into the
    up and coming Vista Gold. At $62/share you
    own 160 shares of VGZ for the $10K.
    35 yrs later as you wish for retirement.
    You realize the $10,000 invested in VGZ
    is worth $160 today.
    You've lost nearly all your money betting
    on the con Vista exec's have promoted for
    over 35yrs, as they laugh on their way to
    the bank.
    If you want to gamble on the flip of a coin
    you've got better odds. You can get the pain
    out of the way quick. 35 yearsof VGZ is a lot of pain.
    Money isn't our most precious commodity.
    Time is finite and too important to waste
    on hope a fraud will change its ways.
  • s
    stocktargetadvisor
    $VGZ
    Maintains HC Wainwright Buy USD 2.5 » USD 3.25
  • t
    theubiquitousman
    I sold all my shares at $1.30 and $1.31. I don't think this mgt. can ever move Mt. Todd into production. In my opinion there are much better opportunities for major appreciation in sector. Check out JGLDF and MRQRF for example.
  • C
    CherkOn
    The independent Feasibility Study for VGZ's 100% owned Mt Todd Gold Project came to the following conclusion:
    'After-tax NPV5% of $823 million and IRR of 23.4% at a $1,350 per ounce gold price and a $0.70=A$1.00 exchange rate (the 'Base Case');
    After-tax NPV5% of $1.15 billion and IRR of 30.3% at current prices and exchange rates ($1,500 per ounce gold and $0.685=A$1.00 exchange rate);'

    Based on those numbers, $1,800/oz gold price would mean an after-tax NPV5% of $1.8 billion; $1,900/oz would result in an after-tax NPV5% of over $2 billion. Keep in mind that Goldman Sachs has a $2,000/oz forecast for gold price, while Bank of America Merrill Lynch has an even higher forecast of $3,000/oz.
    Feel free to help me check the math on the above.

    In terms of their finances/liquidity:

    VGZ received $1.5 million from Prime Mining Corp. this month, and expects another $2.1 million ($1.1 million within 6 months, plus an additional $1.0 million with 12 months)

    VGZ also received $2.4 million from PT Masmindo back in May 2020, and could get another $2.5 million by April 30, 2021.

    On top of that, "As of March 31, 2020, the Company held 6.2 million common shares of Midas Gold Corp". Those shares have increased in value by more than 50% since last week due to the increase in Midas's share price.
  • B
    BigTroy
    Any updates from the mining conference? This stock is on a steady downward trend. Very discouraging considering the potential MT. Todd seems to have.
  • C
    CherkOn
    I think Gold price will move in the year 2020 to 2022 like it did between 2009 to 2011. We're just starting from a higher point. The reasons for the move are very similar, except this time around, the upward trend might go even beyond 2022 as the stimulus required / money printing necessary to get the economy back to normal is even greater than the last time.
  • L
    Levy
    Updated testing results expected in 4 weeks. CEO gave presentation expecting favorable results. Feasibility study to follow 1 to 2 months later. CEO indicated they will be aggressively pursuing a partner.
  • 3
    3800ft
    Here's Vista Gold Corp.'s presentation at the Denver Gold Forum Sept. 2019. This is a great summary for those interested in the current happenings. Low share structure, great location, great jurisdiction. Very, very likely a major entity will buy them out. It is pretty much their business plan. They have a great game plan imo and this will catch a lot of folks off guard when it happens. I'm in @ .47 but I just don't see it going there again. I've ridden it up to over a dollar recently and @ today's price of .73 I still think this is quite a bargain. Some of the recent price target estimates I've seen are anywhere from 2.50 - 3.50. GLTA http://www.denvergold.org/company-webcast/xpl19/143/
    Bullish
  • n
    nguyen365
    One of these days, the stock will triple after news of buyout. These professionals know that and they are working for some buyers to accumulate cheap shares by driving it down whenever they have thin volume. Sometimes they lose when there are overwhelming buyers. Most of the time they win because they have all the time in the world to watch the stock and put in sell order to drive it down. It’s been going on for a long time
  • N
    N
    POSITIVE from Earn(est) Report- The CEO actually stated that he was looking for Development Partners!! If we can just get that deal done. Do you think stock will move up or down from here? Any factors that could influence that? What could the CEO do to improve share price, other than a deal to develop mine?
  • C
    Carl
    Volume extremely high. Can it be just because of gold's surge?
    Or is it due to a paid service promoting?
    Or is there news a brewing?

    If Vista is to get a partner, who are the most likely suitors that are familiar with Australia?

    Looking for opinions.
  • A
    Anti
    Environmental permit received, updated feasibly study and rising gold price should propel this back over $2. I'm guessing buyout within 12 - 18 months of over $5. GLTA.
  • L
    Levy
    Gold is within 0.5% of its all time high in Australian dollars, and has been above $1800 AUD since Christmas. The last time gold was above $1800 AUD, VGZ was between 1.66 and 2.02 (this happened in 2016). VGZ is due for a >+100% price correction, IMHO.
  • C
    CherkOn
    Just because they haven't inked a deal with a partner for Mt. Todd YET, doesn't mean there's no interest. Of course there are interests. It's just a matter of agreeing on a price for the deal. Given the recent rise in gold and the potential to go much higher within the next 18 months depending on whether you believe in Goldman Sachs'
    $2,000/oz or Bank of America Merrill Lynch's 3,000/oz forecast, negotiations might take a bit longer to agree on a price especially with travel restrictions due to COVID-19.
  • L
    Levy
    Again, working the numbers through my price calculator, a company could pay $4/share and earn an un-leveraged 25% return. Leverage could kick the return into the 40s. You may wonder what would happen to a company’s return if gold tumbled back to $1275(not gonna happen) - they would still earn 15% IRR at a $4 buyout!! That is huuugggeee protection against downside risk. This stock is way undervalued.
  • L
    Levy
    I’ve developed a target price by interpolating the values of IRR and PV@5% from the investor presentation. I figured the acquirer would seek an un leveraged 15% return on their investment. Using debt here could push the return above 20%. Here is what I’m seeing:

    Inputs
    Gold price: 1250
    AUDUSD: .71

    Outputs
    IRR: 22.26
    PV@5: 713.159
    Target price @15 IRR: 300
    Share price (no further dilution): $3
  • M
    Matthew
    I don't know if you deleted your last comment about management or if it was removed, but I think most cautious, discerning investors not blinded by the prospects of a big return are seriously interested in this question.

    I mean really, what is going on?!?

    Gold is just shy of 1800 on the paper markets, and above that to actually get physical.

    Is there really no interest from buyers, either of the mine itself or of the shares?

    Perhaps the deal just isn't profitable... or as I think you, others, and myself suspect, management gets paid hundreds of thousands of dollars a year + stock options awards to, in the apparently accurate words of another commenter, to "Tease" VGZ share holders with the always over the horizon prospect of a 2x-3x return every year in perpetuity. All while sitting back, neither creating or adding value of any kind and diluting existing share structure every few years to keep the corporate G&A money train flowing.
  • B
    Brent
    Just started following this again. Looks like HC Wainwright just raised the target to $3. I’m wondering why not $5? In their latest presentation, it looks like Mt. Todd development is worth around $400MM @ 11 to 12% discount. What am I missing here?
  • L
    Levy
    I refreshed my target price calculator with the current 1444 gold price and .7058 exchange rate. At those values, the PV@5 is 1091. This is better than the best case scenario they show in the upper far right corner of their sensitivities. A company could purchase VGZ at $4.5 a share, use 30% leverage and earn a 27% IRR. It’s crazy. Maybe the market doesn’t yet believe the gold price will stick at or above current levels, but a potentially huge opportunity cost is building the longer one waits to buy VGZ.
  • N
    N
    What is the sickness with this stock? Does the management need to go? Are they too tiwheed to their project and won't let it go for the right price? I thought we were finally headed over $1 but this looks bad, and will they now file for a new stock issue and destroy the price for another year or two. Let's talk real.. what is going on with this stock?? Anyone been in touch with the company?