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Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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67.78+0.26 (+0.39%)
At close: 4:02PM EDT
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  • As good as it gets -- EIA needs to confirm tomorrow
    API reported Tuesday an unexpected climb of 1.6 million barrels in U.S. crude supplies for the week ended July 14.. The API data also showed a drop of 5.4 million barrels in gasoline supplies, while distillates were down 2.9 million barrels.
  • VLO was down today with oil prices and oil stock funds but I think it will bounce back quickly. Gasoline prices declined much less than oil on a percentage basis and VLO’s indicative crack spreads for last week – released today – look pretty good.
  • I made it back home and it looks like a lots Ted snow flakes
  • Hi Dennis: Plants in the garden are taller than. me. I sold everything yesterday. I felt it was time for a whole market drop. And I think today its Options ex Friday. And I'm off on personal business again. And poor dog is home alone. She will be ok, air is on. We'll see how next week goes. Bye
  • try again. Red snowflakes
  • Stock price down this morning, for whatever reason, but I am happy with last week's gasoline supplied number. I hope this reflects a trend for the summer.
  • Last week was very strong for VLO indicative crack spreads, published today. I usually just look at RBOB gasoline and WTI crude oil to check the direction of crack spreads. However, these are the oil blends that Valero assumes it has purchased in calculating the weekly indicative crack spreads. (Actual purchases may vary.)

    Gulf Coast: 20% LLS + 40% Maya + 40% ASCI
    Mid-Continent: 60% WTI + 40% LLS
    West Coast: 50% SF ANS + 50% LA ANS
    North Atlantic: 50% NYH Dated Brent + 50% NWE Dated Brent
  • This is hopefully the beginning of something good....although we do make ethanol so nothing is perfect. There are a lot of articles to google on the subject.
    U.S. proposes cutting total biofuels requirements in 2018
    The U.S. government on Wednesday proposed to reduce the volume of biofuel required to be used in gasoline and diesel fuel next year as it signaled the first step toward a potential broader overhaul of its biofuels program.
  • The following are the indicative regional crack spread indicators provided today by Valero for
    Q2-17, Q1-17, and Q2-16, respectively.

    Gulf Coast_____15.05___16.07___15.95
    Mid Con______ 13.06___12.36___11.67
    No Atlantic_____13.24___10.84___14.12
    West Coast____18.93___16.05___18.72
    Ethanol________ .49_____ .49____ .47

    Indicative crack spreads don’t look great for the VLO business but, during the quarter, when spreads were at their lowest, VLO stock rallied. So, Its hard to say what impact these will have on Q2 earnings and stock price. Mid Con and West Coast refiners should do well
  • Good volume for a Friday!
  • Nice price action today. Any reason behind it?
  • Gardens doing great; still green.
  • Good Price action today nice to see VLO above $67 of course we should be trading above $70
  • Demand for gas is not increasing so I am concerned over the long term share price for VLO. I know the Saudis are planning to shut down a refinery but is that enough to keep our refineries moving higher if China demand wanes?
  • $VLO, $TSO, $MPC, $PSX – Note that replies will appear on each refiner page.
    Refining is a horrible business. Managers buy and sell commodities having no control of prices at either end. To make matters worse, US refiners have historically bought oil from a global cartel that controlled product flow and fixed prices. They then sold fuel commodities into a highly competitive market, where competitors often overproduced and drove prices down to unprofitable levels. There were periods when margins (crack spreads) were exceptional, but these were driven by specific events and were generally unsustainable. It is no wonder that analysts have been less than generous with multiples and buy recommendations. Tightening crack spreads and uncertainty about future government actions -- including border adjustment taxes, renewable fuel requirements and RINs -- further hampers today’s valuations.
    I own shares of the four refiners noted above – I don’t think I’m crazy. Dividends are great and appear fully sustainable. Stock prices, for reasons noted above, are cheap. All four of these refiners are major players with ocean access. They are all dropping assets into MLPs and all trying to diversify by varying degrees.
    As an investor, I think that fracking and the growth of US oil production are the main reasons to be optimistic. These four refiners will have access to US produced oil through a growing network of pipelines, as well as access to foreign oil imports. The latter may be a significant advantage for two reasons: 1) I think foreign oil producers will no longer be able to fully control global production – there will be more competition and discounts; and 2) I think the proposed import tax (border adjustment tax) will never pass Congress.
    In the long term, low oil prices will slow the growth of alternative fuels and electric vehicles. The current administration should curb the growth of bio-fuel requirements by year-end. I don’t know if the RIN program will be modified – VLO, of the four names, would likely benefit the most if that happens.
    It is very possible that, in the next decade, electric vehicles use will grow in the US, while gasoline usage continues to grow worldwide. If this turns out to be true, export capabilities will play a big role in the future success of US refiners, especially if technology allows the US to be a low cost producer of oil.
    Well, that’s my unsolicited two cents on refiners. I welcome comments, questions, criticism etc.
  • yae, you go Dennis. I will probably re enter later. But for now, that personal business is getting in the way of trading.
  • When I look at VLO I see; a nice dividend, plenty of room on the payout and lower raw material costs. So why the heck is this stock down almost every day?
  • $VLO, $TSO, $MPC, $PSX --- These are excerpts from a 6/12 Morgan Stanley note.
    “Refining stocks performed well last week despite cracks rolling over and disappointing DOE numbers. We stay cautious on refining margins as utilization and inventories remain heightened.”
    “MS Base Crack Indicator fell 7% last week while U.S. refining stocks rose 5.7%. Regional crack spreads fell 6-9% across the board while U.S refiners outperformed Broader Energy by 3.7%. We believe this is due to a combination of investors using refining for relative safety from other energy subsectors and idiosyncratic driven performance. Overall Energy potentially saw some benefit from the reported “FANG” trade breakdown in the Tech sector.”
  • Appears VLO is breaking out as a reverse H&S is being formed. Right shoulder should be formed next (moving laterally around $65) for a bit , then on up to the $67 area. That will be the first test of the breakout. Then probably a bit of profit taking before heading on to $70.

    These are usually pretty powerful set ups.

    T/A seems to back up the chart an the breakout: RSI gave the first buy signal on 5/31 at 29.08 close (under 30 = oversold), on 6/2 W%R gave a buy signal closing above -80 and today the MACD went positive.

    Appears trend has changed and is in place.

    $70 may just be the first stop to consolidate...

  • "We have too much oil in this country, which is therefore very good for Valero, frankly. .And the glut is so much in the Permian [Basin] that I really do think that Valero can go up 5 or 6 more [basis] points. I think you've got a good one, but remember: With the refineries, they are always trades, because there's no real growth. There's just plan and arbitrage between the price of crude." (Jim Cramer, Mad Money, Tuesday, June 13, 2017)