134.44 -0.34 (-0.25%)
After hours: 7:52PM EST
|Bid||0.00 x 1200|
|Ask||0.00 x 1200|
|Day's Range||133.89 - 135.92|
|52 Week Range||119.35 - 151.84|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||1.03|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.04%|
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Could January Be the Best Month in a Year for the S&P 500?The start of market turmoilThe S&P 500 Index (SPY) ended September 2018 on a mixed note with a rise of 0.4%. Other key indexes the NASDAQ Composite Index (QQQ) (VTI) and the Dow Jones
January BAML Survey: Fund Managers Bearish, but No Recession Yet(Continued from Prior Part)Trade war still investors’ top concernIn Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s January 2019 survey, trade war concerns remained the top tail risk cited by
Wall Street pros, the analyst community and individual investors alike were thrown for a loop in 2018. American tariff disputes with the rest of the world, wild energy-price swings and global growth concerns not only ravaged the market at various points, but also has the experts preaching caution as we enter the new year. The best ETFs for 2019, then, are going to need to accomplish a couple specific goals. For one, you'll want some ETFs that position you defensively while still allowing you to enjoy at least some upside should the market head higher despite all the headwinds it faces. Numerous expert market outlooks have the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index climbing in 2019, but none of them are exuberant and all of them warn of numerous potential pitfalls. Anchoring your portfolio with funds that emphasize, say, low volatility or income can put you in a strong position no matter what the market brings. You also need to take your shots - stocks may end up being sluggish as a whole, but that doesn't mean certain areas of the market can't explode all the same. So some of the top ETFs for the year ahead will focus on specific sectors, industries and even other areas of the world to try to generate outperformance. Here are the best ETFs to buy for 2019. These 19 funds run the gamut, from highly diversified baskets invested in thousands of companies, to concentrated portfolios that use just a couple dozen stocks to benefit from a specific theme. There are ETFs for conservative investors and risk takers alike. And while most of these picks are passive index funds, there are even a few ETFs that tap the brainpower of skilled active management. Take a look: ### SEE ALSO: The 27 Best Mutual Funds in 401(k) Retirement Plans
Bulls versus Bears: Who Will Rule the Stock Markets in 2019?(Continued from Prior Part)Morgan Stanley-One of most bearish S&P 500 targetMorgan Stanley’s (MS) chief equity strategist, Michael Wilson, is the most bearish on Wall Street regarding
Apple and Starbucks Fell as Goldman Sachs Warned of China ## Apple and Starbucks Today, the stocks of the US tech giant Apple (AAPL) and coffee store chain Starbucks (SBUX) fell. At 11:15 AM, Apple was down 0.8% while Starbucks was trading with 1.3% losses for the day. While the broader-market weakness could be a factor driving these two stocks down today, let’s take a look at another important factor. ## Goldman Sachs warned of China Goldman Sachs (GS) analyst Karen Holthouse said in a note to investors, “The recent AAPL [Apple] announcement (while potentially also product-driven) cited trade concerns/macro, and MCD [McDonald’s] acknowledged softer trends in the region at a late November event,” reported CNBC. She added that Goldman Sachs’ “macro team also expects a continued slow down in GDP, at least partially driven by consumption.” Holthouse thinks Starbucks could be the next US firm to warn investors of China’s slowdown. She downgraded her rating of Starbucks to “neutral” from “buy” and also cut the price target to $68 from $75. On January 2, Apple’s CEO Tim Cook, in a letter to investors, lowered the company’s guidance for the quarter ended December 29, citing weakness in China among other internal factors. A continued slowdown in China might affect the future growth of many other companies. Today at 11: 25, the S&P 500 Index (SPY) and NASDAQ Composite Index (QQQ) (VTI) both were trading with 0.4% losses. YUM! Brands (YUM) and McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) were down 1.7% and up 0.1%, respectively.
Most of Gundlach’s 2018 Calls Were Spot On—What about 2019? (Continued from Prior Part) ## Gundlach called Bitcoin’s crash Jeffrey Gundlach correctly called Bitcoin’s (BTC) crash after the cryptocurrency’s peak in December 2017. Gundlach compared Bitcoin’s (XBT) movement with the dot-com bubble. He said, “It was so obvious to me that bitcoin is the dot-com of our world (SPY) (VTI) today, and this mania is so similar to where we were in 1999.” He added, “Bitcoin very clearly leads risk assets.” ## Other investors on Bitcoin Gundlach isn’t the only prominent investor who is critical of Bitcoin. Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK-B) chair, has been critical of cryptocurrencies. Last year, he called Bitcoin “rat poison squared.” He also said, “In terms of cryptocurrencies, generally, I can say with almost certainty that they will come to a bad ending.” ## Gundlach: 25% upside in Bitcoin However, in contrast to his view on Bitcoin for 2018, Gundlach predicted that Bitcoin could easily rise 25% and return to the $5,000 price point. However, he still doesn’t recommend making any moves on Bitcoin. As reported by CNBC, he said, “I don’t recommend anything with bitcoin, really … but if you really want to speculate, I think it could make it to $5,000. Talk about an easy 25 percent.” He also advised investors to “get the heck out of bitcoin.” Browse this series on Market Realist: * Part 1 - Most of Gundlach’s 2018 Calls Were Spot On—What about 2019? * Part 2 - Jeffrey Gundlach: How to Survive the Market Zigzags in 2019 * Part 3 - Gundlach: Junk Bond Market Is Flashing Yellow on Recession
Jeffrey Gundlach expects 2019 to continue to be a volatile year. Gundlach believes that higher yields on bonds (HYG) (BND) will hurt stocks in what he’s called a “tug of war,” as reported by CNBC. Gundlach believes that due to buybacks, the equity markets have turned into a collateralized debt obligation residual, which he believes is “getting thinner and thinner, riskier and riskier.” He added, “So, the balance sheets of corporations are balanced on ever-dwindling equities as they buy back shares and increase their leverage ratios.
In my first column of 2019, I wrote “we’re either entering or are in a bear market,” and I don’t expect stocks to get back to their all-time highs. The easy money was made long ago in this market, and some of the recent highfliers—the FAANG stocks (Facebook (FB) Apple (AAPL) Amazon (AMZN) Netflix (NFLX) and Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL) parent of Google)—have been pummeled in recent weeks, raising big questions about where the leadership for a new, sustained leg of this bull market will come from.
Apple (AAPL) stock saw one of its worst quarterly losses in the fourth quarter. The stock fell ~30.1% in the fourth quarter—compared to a 14.0%, 17.5%, and 11.8% fall in the S&P 500 Index (SPY), the NASDAQ Composite Index (QQQ) (VTI), and the Dow Jones, respectively. So far, 2019 started on a bad note for Apple investors. The company cut its guidance on January 2 due to its sliding sales in China.
Apple Bulls and Bears Lock Horns to Start Volatile 2019 ## Apple In the week ending on January 4, Apple (AAPL) stock witnessed huge volatility after ending the final quarter of 2018 with 30.1% losses. The company lost ~5.1% last week. Apple erased its gains of 3.6% the previous week. On January 2, Apple stock remained mixed. On January 3 and January 4, Apple fell 10.0% and rose 4.3%, respectively. ## What weighed on Apple? After the market closed on January 2, Apple CEO Tim Cook confirmed weaker iPhone sales. In a press release titled “Letter from Tim Cook to Apple investors,” Cook cut the company’s guidance for the quarter ending on December 29. Apple expects its revenues in the first quarter of fiscal 2019 (ending December 29) to be ~$84 billion—lower than its earlier guidance of revenues between $89 billion and $93 billion. Apple expects its gross margins to be ~38% for the last quarter—compared to the previous guidance of 38%–38.5%. In the press release, Cook blamed the Chinese economic slowdown for hitting iPhone sales in the country. He also noted that the US-China trade war made the situation worse. The US dollar’s rising value against key currencies is expected to act as a headwind to the company’s revenues. According to Cook, internal factors include the timing of new iPhone launches and other new Apple products. The negative news triggered a massive sell-off of 10.0% in Apple stock on January 3. On January 4, a sharp recovery of 4.3% in the stock was driven by macro factors (QQQ) (VTI) like positive December jobs data and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments. Last week, Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), NVIDIA (NVDA), Facebook (FB), and Netflix (NFLX) rose 6.6%, 1.5%, 1.9%, 3.6%, and 16.2%, respectively. Stay tuned to Market Realist to find out which key factors Apple investors should watch this week.
Could Apple Still Fall to $120, as Jim Cramer Suggested? ## Apple stock On January 2 after the market closed, Apple (AAPL) informed investors about a downward revision in its first-quarter guidance. The company revised its first quarter of fiscal 2019 (which ended on December 29) revenue guidance to approximately $84 billion, compared to $89 billion–$93 billion guidance provided earlier. The company also slightly lowered its first-quarter gross margins guidance to about 38%, versus the previous given range of 38%–38.5%. This update triggered a sharp sell-off in Apple stock yesterday as it settled with 10.0% losses on Thursday. ## Jim Cramer on Apple stock On December 3, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said in a tweet, “You can’t rally on a day when Apple’s down and headed to $120 –10x $12…” Apple stock lost about 10.0% on Wednesday, versus 2.5%, 3.0%, and 2.8% drops in the S&P 500 Index, the NASDAQ Composite Index (QQQ)(VTI), and the Dow Jones, respectively. Other large US companies Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), General Motors (GM), NVIDIA (NVDA), Facebook (FB), Intel (INTC), and Microsoft (MSFT) lost 2.5%, 2.8%, 4.1%, 6.0%, 2.9%, 5.5%, and 3.7%, respectively, yesterday. According to Cramer, “Apple, under severe pressure after cutting revenue guidance, could eventually bottom out at $120 per share,” CNBC reported. However, the report also added that Cramer “likes the stock over the long term” and “warned investors against selling Apple’s stock.” Apple’s recent cut in guidance came after many Wall Street analysts had already cut their estimates for the company, citing sales weakness in China. Apple’s admission of Chinese market trouble made many investors sell the stock in a panic on Thursday. News of positive progress in US–China trade relations and a sharp recovery in Chinese economic data could boost Apple investors’ confidence in the near term. Subscribe now to Market Realist Pro and receive our newsletters The Thirty Percent and Disruptors & Innovators, featuring stock recommendations from our CEO, JP Gravitt, and market strategist Joey Solitro.
Are Trump and Powell Trying to Make American Market Great Again? ## Market rally Today investors’ mood seemed to have changed suddenly, as the key US indexes are witnessing a rally after yesterday’s steep losses. On Thursday, the S&P 500 Index, the NASDAQ Composite Index (QQQ) (VTI), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.5%, 3.0%, and 2.8%, respectively. In contrast, the S&P 500, the NASDAQ Composite, and the Dow were up by 2.8%, 3.7%, and 3.7%, respectively, today at 12:08 PM EST. At the same time, Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), General Motors (GM), Ford (F), NVIDIA (NVDA), Facebook (FB), Intel (INTC), and Microsoft (MSFT) lost 3.5%, 4.7%, 4.3%, 1.8%, 2.5%, 6.6%, 4.1%, 5.2%, and 4.3%, respectively. Let’s find out what could be making the American market great again today. ## Trump and Powell Earlier today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly jobs data for December. The non-farm employment change in December stood at 312,000, which was far better than estimated at 179,000 and 176,000 reported in the previous month. In an early morning tweet, President Trump tried to boost investor sentiment, saying, “GREAT JOBS NUMBERS JUST ANNOUNCED!” In addition, Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded more dovish than ever today at the American Economic Association’s annual meeting in Atlanta. He said, “we will be patient as we watch to see how the economy evolves,” CNBC reported. These comments gave investors another reason to celebrate, as they hinted at a softer approach on rate hike decisions in 2019. In the last few months, Trump has, on many occasions, criticized the Fed for taking an aggressive approach to interest rate hikes and hurting the market’s sentiments. While Trump’s and Powell’s comments today might not end investors’ other worries such as the US-China trade war and fears of a global slowdown, it could reflect their efforts to make the American market great again. Subscribe now to Market Realist Pro and receive our newsletters The Thirty Percent and Disruptors & Innovators featuring stock recommendations from our CEO JP Gravitt and market strategist Joey Solitro.
Is Fed's Powell Now Using Trump's 'Feel the Market' Technique? ## Market sell-off The US market started 2019 on a terrible note, with Apple (AAPL) cutting its guidance mainly due to the Chinese market slowdown. Apple’s warning about China pulled the market down yesterday as all major indexes tanked significantly. On January 3, the S&P 500 Index, the NASDAQ Composite Index (QQQ) (VTI), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.5%, 3.0%, and 2.8%, respectively. Apple, Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), General Motors (GM), NVIDIA (NVDA), Facebook (FB), Intel (INTC), and Microsoft (MSFT) fell 10%, 2.5%, 2.8%, 4.1%, 6.0%, 2.9%, 5.5%, and 3.7%, respectively, yesterday. However, the market’s mood seems to have reversed today. Let’s take a look at why. ## Feeling the market President Donald Trump has been quite vocal in criticizing the Federal Reserve, and he directly blamed its chair, Jerome Powell, for threatening “U.S. economic growth” during an interview with the Wall Street Journal recently. Referring to Powell, President Trump said in the interview, “Every time we do something great, he raises the interest rates.” President Trump said that it “almost looks like he’s happy raising interest rates.” On December 18, before the Fed’s fourth decision to hike rates in 2018, President Trump said in a tweet, “I hope the people over at the Fed will read today’s Wall Street Journal Editorial before they make yet another mistake.” He added, “Feel the market, don’t just go by meaningless numbers. Good luck!” After the Fed’s decision to hike the interest rate in the meeting, which triggered a market sell-off, Trump said, “The only problem our economy has is the Fed. They don’t have a feel for the Market,” on Twitter. At the American Economic Association’s annual meeting in Atlanta, Powell sounded more dovish than ever. He said, “We will be patient as we watch to see how the economy evolves,” according to CNBC. While the strong jobs data released earlier today boosted investors’ confidence, Powell’s apparent adoption of the president’s “feel the market” technique could also be driving the market up.
Let’s take a look at what’s causing today’s market crash. Yesterday, President Donald Trump called December’s sharp market sell-off “a little glitch,” CNBC reported. While investors might be feeling the real pain of the stock market’s plunge, Trump doesn’t seem to be giving up on his tactics to deal with other nations for trade, especially with China.
The non-farm payrolls for the US (IVV) (QQQ) were 155,000 in November, which underwhelmed economists’ consensus of 198,000. October’s non-farm payrolls (or NFP) were also revised down to 237,000 from 250,000 previously, while September’s NFP were revised higher by 1,000 to 119,000. After last month’s weaker job additions, economists are expecting payrolls to come in at 180,000, which is lower than the average for the first 11 months of 2018 but still healthy.
In the previous part of this series, we discussed how the US-China trade war has impacted China’s economy. The trade war could be one of the main reasons for Apple’s (AAPL) recent troubles. In addition to Apple, China’s economic slowdown will likely impact many other US and Chinese companies (VTI) including Ford (F), General Motors (GM), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alibaba (BABA).
The US Department of Labor (VTI) is set to release December employment data on January 4. What Wall Street wants from the December jobs report is not very clear. While a strong jobs report would mean continued strength in the US economy, it could also entail a continuation of gradual rate hikes by the Fed. The markets definitely don’t want to see this at the moment.