To figure out a good price, I do a DDM calculation using my Excel® based DDM calculator (pictured below, you can see the web-based calculator I based it on here and read a discussion on how the formulas were developed here). I also found this discussion of DDM, and note that in the article the author uses a discount rate of 5%.
Looking at the David Fish's CCC List(which contains a data on companies that have raised their dividend each year for 5 or more years) I see VTR has raised its dividend each year for 7 years. I also see that analysts are estimating the earnings will grow by almost 7% each year over the next 5 years. With AFFO growing very little over the next year according to management guidance, I want to be very conservative in my estimation of dividend growth, so I will stay with the 5% I estimated in my last article. This has the benefit of being lower than earnings growth, so I can be sure the company could support it. I will use the annualized amount of the currently declared quarterly dividend payment, $3.10 as my dividend value and based on the current yield I will use a terminal dividend growth rate of 1%.
Using those parameters I calculate that the NPV of the predicted dividend payments is $69.16 making my buy price anything below $70. Because of a couple of comments on a recent article, I want to again note that my buy price is not a prediction of where I expect the price to go. While the market does tend to move towards a fair value price, there is no guarantee that it will reach such a price before the variables change enough that the price is some other value. My dividend growth strategy depends on getting shares at a value to the dividend they pay me, not on predicting where the price will go, so I do not try to predict where the price will go.
Morningstar currently lists the 5 year average yield of VTR as 4.18%. Dividing the current dividend of $3.10 by that rate, I get a price of ~$74. I think that price is too high, but it does show that my $70 buy price is not unrealistically high.
Way overvalued. It is a buy at $45. It will fall hard with interest rate increases. Be patient.
why did Yahoo mess up the portfolio part of their website? it is not an improvement, why do software people always want to changE and make things worse. If it isn't broken, DON'T FIX IT!!!
Option trading strategies for stock symbol VTR, stock overbought as of 03/27/2017 - Daily Max Options Trading Strategies
Are you looking for a VTR short term trade? View stock and option trading strategy for Ventas, Inc., short term overbought as of 03/27/2017.
Does a neutral rsi of 43.48 mean little action for VTR? It's an interesting question but anything could happen. A Pullback, a sudden uptick; it's all possible. have you guys heard of a.awesomestocks. i started receiving their allerts and so far i am happy.
Is this drop due to shareholders record date of March 7 for dividends or is something else going on?
What's with all the spam.................
The ticker symbol you want to look at is ZTR for new management, sustainable yield, selling at a large discount, company has been doing buy backs for the last months.
Are the "machines" in control of the trading in VTR? Buy at 59 one day & then sell at 62 etc. etc. I'm long term but there is "yo yo" money to be made here.
Support established at $59.26. Might be the start of some upside. The buy rating at 9trading is set to 7. Target: $82.44.
This REIT is going lower. If they paid out all cash flow it would yields 6.9%. Any growth has come from huge stock offerings --$1B in the last year alone. Income is fixed because leases do not adjust. Should be selling around $45.
What's the reason for big move today. Large options buy interest? Back to $65.00 ??
Getting crushed again. New Lows coming? All utilities are being sold off