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Ventas, Inc. (VTR)

NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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52.72+1.29 (+2.51%)
At close: 04:00PM EDT
52.74 +0.02 (+0.04%)
After hours: 04:07PM EDT
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  • p
    phil
    Not sure what got said in the NaReit conference that caused VTR to drop today. I listened to it, they reaffirmed guidance, discussed some pretty helpful long term trends (limited new construction in their markets, coming significant increases in population of people in the '80s, etc) and were quite upbeat on their prospects. Maybe people were looking for an improvement in guidance? VTR tends to be conservative in guidance, so I didn't expect that!!

    Based in the timing, VTR shares dropped BEFORE they were scheduled to start speaking, so maybe it was something else which did it.

    Still think this is a great long term value. Management does have their act together and the wind is at their back for the next several years.
  • P
    Phil
    A day to beat down every single REIT. I own several and in some cases, I get it. But not with VTR. Their core demand is strong and getting stronger. The management team knows what it is doing.

    I've added shares during pullbacks before. This isn't enough for me to add, yet. Markets often overreact and individual stocks can swept up, whether deservedly or not. VTR under $45 is a great deal and I'll likely add a bit. if the markets continue to tank as badly as some think, it might get below $40, at which point it'd be time for me to add a ton to the position.
  • p
    phil
    Earnings tomorrow.

    I can understand why VTR has been reluctant to raise the dividend so far. Covid, cost increases and interest rate moves complicate the outlook enough for them to be conservative.

    But if this quarter is another strong one, I'd expect a dividend hike to at least 50 cents per quarter and possibly as high as 60 cents per quarter. Not sure if they'll announce the hike at the same time as earnings get reported, or at a later date.

    If they don't raise the dividend based on this quarter's report, it makes it more likely they make a larger raise a few months down the road.

    A year ago, I thought this could get to $70/share and a $3 annual dividend by mid-2022. Neither is likely, though $70 remains possible.

    $3 dividend is less likely by mid-2022, but a .70-.75 quarterly dividend is possible this year.

    Either way, I expect VTR to reach (or get very close to) both targets this year.

    This is a great long term, conservative holding.
  • P
    PF Wagner
    I'm out. I used the bounce to exit with a tiny profit. VTR has an insane P/E and it won't survive in a BEAR market no matter what they do. Good luck longs... you'll need it.
    Bearish
  • p
    phil
    Looks like a solid quarter to me. Not as much of a bump in FFO (.79 and .81 -- they report 2 FFO numbers) as I'd have liked to see, but they exceeded the forecast they'd given for the quarter. Forecast for next quarter is a bit lower. Not thrilled with that, but will get more from the cc on why. Combined, looks like H1 FFO of about $1.50, with dividend payout of $0.90.

    Best quarter since they reduced the dividend to .45/q. Will we get a bump there? Maybe. Dividend announcement typically a few weeks after reporting.

    Stock remains cheap -- and given how brutal the markets are at the moment, VTR is a good place to be!!
  • p
    phil
    I guess the good news is the market has been tanking, but VTR has held up reasonably well. Apparently, the earnings report didn't move the needle at all. Almost flat on the day
  • J
    John
    After reading the VTR proxy material and seeing how much the board members are paid and how many shares of stock they get, I'm not voting for them. I am voting for Litt. A few years ago the dividend rate to us stockholders was slashed, yet board members get paid + free stock. It's an old boys club.
    Neutral
  • J
    John
    The Blue card has 1 person, Litt, they are trying to get on their board. I voted for Litt. On the white card I voted against all the ones running for the board. IF Litt gets on he'll be one person and far outnumbered. Maybe shake the board up a little. I don't like board members getting over $175,000 + about the same dollar amount in free stock and not get us poor share owners a penny more in dividends. "Good ole boys club" is a term and covers both genders.
  • J
    John
    The Blue ballot is trying to get 1 person on the board, the majority would still be the "good-old-boys".
    I say , lets get Litt on the board. Might do some good.
  • t
    tim
    back out the grant revenue from the number and its a big whiff?

    a 1 time gain is not supposed to be baked in the cake.
  • p
    phil
    voted for the current mgmt team.

    3 big reasons

    1 -- they navigated the pandemic quite well -- no small feat given how much it impacted senior living
    2 -- mgmt has been consistently honest. Never sugar coated stuff and I appreciate leaders who don't blow smoke. I've seen times when someone encouraged Cafaro to overstate how good things were and she pushed back. Most CEO's wouldn't, she did (also like the CAG CEO for the same reason).
    3 -- current performance. VTR is doing well overall. The hangover issues from the pandemic are clearing -- expect continuing FFO increases and soon, dividend increases.

    In addition, there's no compelling reason to trust the alternative slate -- nor do they offer a compelling reason to vote for them.

    And fwiw, I've voted 'no' on plenty of management recommendations in my holdings. Was once part of a successful vote to oust a BOD and install new management.
  • J
    Joe C
    07/01/2020 - So far I'm quite right, I'm still looking at $40 by end of July and $50 by end of year. 2021 will be the recovery year when vaccine becomes and available followed by bring back the original dividend.

    It'd be an easy $60. Why invest in FANG stock, when you can get paid a good dividend while waiting for the recovery. Write OTM calls in the mean time to boost return, that's what I'm doing!
    Bullish
  • R
    Robert
    I received the white proxy with the annual report (and mailed it back), and then received 2 more copies of the white proxy in smaller envelopes over past 2 weeks. The company must be concerned to spend the money to send 3 separate proxies. Never received a blue proxy with just the 1 name. I wonder why that happened? More reason the blue can't win if many didn't even get the proxy.
  • A
    Anonymous
    Well folks, we are up a long way from the bottom! Hope some of you were able to buy near the lows.
    Now, let's consider the dividend going forward. Wondering what some of you think would happen with the share price under the conditions listed below. I have my thoughts shown out to the side.

    * No change to the current dividend (Price goes over $50 by end of summer)

    * 30 to 50% dividend cut (Price falls 10 to 15% from here but still over $40 by end of summer)

    * Short term halt to the dividend (Price falls to 31 to 33 dollar range but recovers to 35 to 40 dollar range by end of summer)
  • p
    phil
    I guess I'm the lone optimist left here, but there's good reason for my optimism. The quarterly results and cc were both strong. FFO is .73 this Q, forecast at .70 for next. Or $2.80-$3.00 prorated to an annual basis. And an annual dividend of $1.80, or $1 less than FFO. Dividend is easily covered.

    From the call, the company is confident in the next year, a bit cautious in the very near term, with labor costs an issue they touched on repeatedly. But -- not as an excuse -- just as a reality they see now, resolving a bit over time.

    This is a company with their act together, in strong markets with good near and longer term demand. They know how to manage costs, deploy capital efficiently and maintain growth. What they don't do is extend themselves into areas they don't know -- they stay focused on what they do well.

    The share price got a modest bump after the report and call, though given how it had been beaten down, the bump could have been more. Still, if I read this in a vacuum, I'd say this is a $75 stock on its way to $90 in the next year or so. And its available at $54.

    So did I buy more? Yup. will I buy more? At these levels, yup.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/m/31059341-0ab8-3810-90b3-ee1feeba61ce/ventas-inc-vtr-q3-2021.html
    For a more detailed discussion of those factors, please refer to our earnings release for this quarter and to our most recent SEC filings, all of which are available on the Ventas website. Ventas delivered positive results in the third quarter, saw
    For a more detailed discussion of those factors, please refer to our earnings release for this quarter and to our most recent SEC filings, all of which are available on the Ventas website. Ventas delivered positive results in the third quarter, saw
    finance.yahoo.com
  • D
    David
    The price when you sell is what matters. Lower prices in between when you bought and when you sell are just part of the game. Too many investors these days need instant gratification to confirm their investments are OK. VTR is going to be OK. Just wait for it. That is something people in this world don’t do well anymore. Patience and waiting for something to work is a trait that has been lost. We would be better off most of the time if we would buy something high quality at a low relative price (like VTR) regardless of what the short term momentum chasers are doing and saying and just bury it and forget about it. Then dig it up in 10 years. Forget about what happens in between. You would be surprised at how wrong the momentum chasers are most of the time about the long term.

    I get criticized for this philosophy as being too simple and too naive. I am told investing is much harder than that. Well it works for me. (Definitely not every time, but if I apply it consistently then it works enough to give me overall success). And so many people make it so much harder than they need to. It really isn’t that hard. Low prices of high quality assets lead to high future returns. High prices of those same assets lead to low future returns. Low prices of relatively good assets present opportunity for high future returns. So welcome this disconnect between value and price. Only care about price when it is time to sell. If my time horizon is 10 years or more the price today doesn’t matter. It only tells me if I should be a buyer or a seller.
  • S
    Stkpicker
    No dividend increases until 1) earnings stabilize 2) covid 19 is not seen as a senior housing issue 3) Covid 19 not seen as acute care issue. Let's hope there is no dividend cut.
  • J
    Jon E. Holiday
    Rather disappointed and surprised to see Ventas increase their senior housing exposure with yesterday's announcement of the SNR merger. I was hoping to see them expand more in the medical office and research facility space for portfolio diversification. I don't think many hold VTR for the near-term performance outlook, but longer term, the demographics are certainly in its favor. The recent acquisition unfortunately, will probably push any hope for a dividend increase even further out into the future.
  • T
    Timothy
    Ventas stock has recovered nearly all of its pandemic related capital loss and continue to move towards $60 per share. The company appears to have weathered the pansemic issues imopacting its stock, however it has not adjusted its dividend given the return to nearly full valuation. The stock was very ayttractive with a yield of 6% when I purchased it, however the current yield of 3% makes me question if it is safe to continue to hold. I would think that management would be feeling the pressure to reinstate the full dividend to keep sharehoulders from bailing out. I have already liquidated 35% of my holdings after making a nice 59% return on the cheap post pandemic crash shares I purchased in the 20s and 30s. Bottom line, for longs focusesd on dividend income with possibly better options, is Ventas still a hold?
    Neutral
  • p
    phil
    Nice to see VTR continuing to grind higher. Lots of things going on in the world but VTR is far from the center. Things like higher interest rates and higher prices for food, labor, etc can have an impact on earnings, but not likely to be a major impact. Meanwhile, demand is healthy for both life sciences and senior living.

    Hoping it gets to $70 (both because I own shares and because its my prediction and I like being right). Do expect a meaningful dividend increase (guessing 10 cents per quarter) at some point this year, too.
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