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Ventas, Inc. (VTR)
NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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Feeling pretty comfortable about VTR. The long term trends pre-pandemic haven't changed. VTR's business probably takes a year or so to fully normalize, but I expect it'll be tough to add capacity to VTR's core markets because demand for home building and the like will compete for those resources. Which aids VTR and the stronger players. My guess is by mid-next year, we're looking at a $3+ annual dividend and a $70+ share price
Sold Short a lot of shares of VTR today at $53.88. This is a Pure Earnings Short Sell play. VTR reports earnings pre-market tomorrow, and I am expecting a major sell-off in response to disappointing and weak numbers. VTR is poised to collapse because she is significantly over-valued and faces past, present, and future Covid-related headwinds.
Stock is close to a 52 week high for absolutely no valid reason. Top insiders of the company are selling their shares in recent weeks. Company Guided down in February. There is just no reason for the stock price to go up from these levels on this earnings release, barring absolute blow-out beats on both EPS and Revenue estimates, which is extremely unlikely.
Will Cover tomorrow afternoon and feeling confident this will be my 7th winning trade in a row, all of them single day Pure Earnings Short Sells.
Ventas stock has recovered nearly all of its pandemic related capital loss and continue to move towards $60 per share. The company appears to have weathered the pansemic issues imopacting its stock, however it has not adjusted its dividend given the return to nearly full valuation. The stock was very ayttractive with a yield of 6% when I purchased it, however the current yield of 3% makes me question if it is safe to continue to hold. I would think that management would be feeling the pressure to reinstate the full dividend to keep sharehoulders from bailing out. I have already liquidated 35% of my holdings after making a nice 59% return on the cheap post pandemic crash shares I purchased in the 20s and 30s. Bottom line, for longs focusesd on dividend income with possibly better options, is Ventas still a hold?
07/01/2020 - So far I'm quite right, I'm still looking at $40 by end of July and $50 by end of year. 2021 will be the recovery year when vaccine becomes and available followed by bring back the original dividend.
It'd be an easy $60. Why invest in FANG stock, when you can get paid a good dividend while waiting for the recovery. Write OTM calls in the mean time to boost return, that's what I'm doing!
Well folks, we are up a long way from the bottom! Hope some of you were able to buy near the lows.
Now, let's consider the dividend going forward. Wondering what some of you think would happen with the share price under the conditions listed below. I have my thoughts shown out to the side.
* No change to the current dividend (Price goes over $50 by end of summer)
* 30 to 50% dividend cut (Price falls 10 to 15% from here but still over $40 by end of summer)
* Short term halt to the dividend (Price falls to 31 to 33 dollar range but recovers to 35 to 40 dollar range by end of summer)
The price when you sell is what matters. Lower prices in between when you bought and when you sell are just part of the game. Too many investors these days need instant gratification to confirm their investments are OK. VTR is going to be OK. Just wait for it. That is something people in this world don’t do well anymore. Patience and waiting for something to work is a trait that has been lost. We would be better off most of the time if we would buy something high quality at a low relative price (like VTR) regardless of what the short term momentum chasers are doing and saying and just bury it and forget about it. Then dig it up in 10 years. Forget about what happens in between. You would be surprised at how wrong the momentum chasers are most of the time about the long term.
I get criticized for this philosophy as being too simple and too naive. I am told investing is much harder than that. Well it works for me. (Definitely not every time, but if I apply it consistently then it works enough to give me overall success). And so many people make it so much harder than they need to. It really isn’t that hard. Low prices of high quality assets lead to high future returns. High prices of those same assets lead to low future returns. Low prices of relatively good assets present opportunity for high future returns. So welcome this disconnect between value and price. Only care about price when it is time to sell. If my time horizon is 10 years or more the price today doesn’t matter. It only tells me if I should be a buyer or a seller.
No dividend increases until 1) earnings stabilize 2) covid 19 is not seen as a senior housing issue 3) Covid 19 not seen as acute care issue. Let's hope there is no dividend cut.
Jon E. Holiday
.45/dividend is intact for another quarter. Good news, I suppose. Once a vaccine is out and things stabilize, I would hope we'd start to see some dividend increases within another year or two.
08:34 AM EST, 02/20/2020 (MT Newswires) -- Ventas (VTR), a real estate investment trust company, reported Q4 2019 normalized funds from operations (FFO) of $0.93 per share, compared with $0.96 a year ago. That beat the Capital IQ consensus forecast of $0.92.
Revenue for the quarter was $996 million, up from $923.3 million. That beat the analysts' forecast of $977.9 million.
The company said it expects normalized FFO for full-year 2020 of $3.56 to $3.69.
The company noted that its Q4 2019 Normalized FFO per share included $0.01 of fees and a cash tax refund that will not carry over into 2020.
Price: 60.00, Change: +0.83, Percent Change: +1.40
Revenue over $1B, record, no dividend cut, FFO $0.97/share, just shy of 2 cents from March 2019 quarter. Yet stock dropped 50%. Yeah, this price won't last long, I'm buying another 200 shares at open.
Does anyone have information on the offering vtr filed today in an attempt to raise funds. Not happy it was filed day before ex-div date.
I thought the earnings release was scheduled BEFORE the market opened today. 4/24/2020
I really like this stock. The cost vs yield is compelling. At this price in 15-years assuming no dividend hikes (or cuts) your cost basis will be effectively zero. This is how you make money in the stock market. Buy quality companies that are out of favor and get paid 6% while you wait.
Analyst Actions: Jefferies Upgrades Ventas to Buy From Hold, Lifts Price Target to $68 From $62
I purchased this as a long term investment....saying that makes me feel better...NOT!
Love this in today's press release. Reduced interest on debt by 1.25%. Wow. "The Company extended its maturity profile and managed interest rate risk via the issuance of $650 million of 3.00% Senior Notes due 2030, the proceeds of which were used to retire $600 million of 4.25% Senior Notes due 2022."
Finally! 1st qtr dividend announcement today. Payable 4/14 to holders of record 4/1. $.7925/share.
Vaccine development is going well. VTR will rise to $40 by end of month, and by $50 in July, and back above $60 by summer end. Glad that I bought. This is among the most undervalued stock out there, the customer base remains stronger than ever.
Announced around 12-10-18, dividend increased by 1 cent, or 1/4 cent each quarter. Pretty cheap of them. They give themselves big raises and stock options and we loyal share owners get a crumb. These people will want your vote next year to vote them on the board of directors, so remember the 1/4 penny you get each quarter.
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