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Wingstop Inc. (WING)

NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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148.33-0.54 (-0.36%)
At close: 4:00PM EDT
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  • M
    Mort
    Any ideas why we are up so nicely, today? I cannot find news. Thanks.
  • s
    stocktargetadvisor
    $WING
    Upgrades BTIG Research Buy USD 175
  • J
    Jo
    Hearing that an upgrade is coming out? 200 price target
    Bullish
  • g
    gilbert
    why would any investor care that $wing is a one product restaurant and that product is having epic shortages with prices skyrocketing?
    Bearish
  • B
    Benjo
    I am repeating my target on this-200.
  • r
    redwoodturtle
    so who thinks wing stop will beat earnings? I am not sure we know that they sold a boat load of wings ! but they have had extra expenses like adding the new stores but those new stores will add to there earning the next quarter and then there the cost of there wings but they can easily a just there prices to cover extra expenses and they have been on fire since this pandemic and it will be a while before things go back to normal but when it does I think it will do a lot better one reason is besides the fact that all the sports bars and stadiums being open now a lot more people know about wing stop then they did before including my self never heard of them before pandemic so I am leaning towards bullish more then bearish but in this crazy as hell market who know so I am Neutral it could go either way back to 138 or up to 160
    Neutral
  • B
    Benjo
    Adding on any weakness to 200.
    Bullish
  • r
    redwoodturtle
    anybody out there! have you heard any new news?
  • B
    Benjo
    Target is 175-200 on this. Keep adding.
    Bullish
  • A
    Allex
    Stonks. This says it all: https://youtu.be/UZkVed3aqx0
  • L
    Living
    TOO Much debt!
    Bearish
  • A
    Al Lo
    Two statements that popped out from the report were "As a reminder, our domestic same-store sales experienced a slight uptick as we closed out the first quarter with an 8.9% "and "To quantify that, our domestic same-store sales increased more than 30% in the month of April". Now, against conventional wisdom, if at the beginning of the crisis sales were up 8.9% and as the crisis got worse it went up 30%, is this claiming pandemic conditions are good for sales? And if so, do sales drop as we begin to ease out of the crisis? I am assuming these comparisons are to last year same time sales, but can I be wrong and they are playing with words? Maybe April 2019 was a really bad month for some reason? My observations around me are that all dining, fine, casual, and fastfood , are doing worse than before the crisis. Some places have reduced hours, some have staffing and stocking issues, and all have no dining room. Agreed?

    If Wingstop can declare a 30% increase in sales during the worst part of the shutdown, contrary to everything else out there in the dining world, then it has to be declared that it is a result of the shutdown. If logic follows, sales will decrease as we emerge from the shutdown. As temporary layoffs become permanent, recession begins to set in, supply disruptions, and costs rise due to the inflation caused by the Treasury printing money, the food industry environment will at the best be the same as last year and probably worse. I don't see growth for Wingstop in the next 12 months, and the valuations at the current level are that of a small biotech company on the brink of curing cancer. There is a play on words or funny math going on with the April commentary on the report (and yes, it is only commentary), and unfortunately the market won't truly understand until we see the numbers 3 months from now. Until then, I have to side on common sense, despite the technical bear trap conditions that exist at the moment.
    Bearish
  • A
    Al Lo
    Put/Call ratio of 1.39 which is very high. If the price was struggling or even modest, this would be a contrarian indicator to buy. At these high prices I wouldn't consider it a contrarian indicator but instead a great bear trap that will eventually unravel. Institutions really can't dump a lot at these low volumes because of the price reaction. The 11:00 trade today was the largest, and the price went down $1 compared to the price fifteen minutes before. Yesterday's largest trades were at the close; within an hour the price went down $2. So you really can't dump shares without making the price drastically lower. I think this high put/call ratio can be attributed to sellers getting ready to dump and hedging for the price drop. Vanguard and Blackrock both added in February in the mid 90s. If they didn't dump in March, then they must be itching to cash out of WING and reduce their exposure at these levels, so with the Puts they are guaranteed to make a ton of money as they dump and the price drastically declines.
    Bearish
  • D
    DBI_Trader
    One of the top SHORT opportunities in the market. Heading down very soon.
  • s
    spacebee
    They make $60 mil rev per quarter and the market cap is $4.4B.
  • d
    daven
    Amazing hat every stock on the board is down today except the chicken joint that trades at a 180x P/E. Asset managers must see chicken wings as a safe haven during global market volatility.
  • S
    Seleucus
    I had to buy some $125 puts Sep expire. They were expensive. It's a fine company, but I just don't get this market value. A higher mkt value than Papa Johns with 1/2 the debt and 1/8 the revenue. However, the trading AI may not allow the price to drop.
    Bearish
  • s
    steve
    This stock is trading at record highs with earnings that are estimated to beat 2019's ..... (HOW?) First: A large part of their business is sit down in the restaurant..... which is off the table with COVID. Second: the carryout/delivery portion is largely influenced by sporting events, the biggest of which was March Madness. All of these events have been canceled or postponed. Third: the future of sitdown restaurants looks to be limited to 50% of former capacity. Fourth: the overwhelming majority of these resturaunts are still closed with out an opening day insight. At where they are trading right now you have to make the argument that a mandatory shutdown, canceled sports, and limiting future earnings potential has not only had ZERO affected on the health and outlook of a business but it has actually strengthened it. I trust this about as much as I trust 2008 AAA mortgage. If it doesn't go down immensely I'm getting in touch with Ryan Gosling and telling him I have an opportunity for him.
    Bearish
  • R
    Ronald
    I see a couple ways that the company can manipulate the revenue number each quarter.

    1. The advertising fee is boosting revenue and it is restricted revenue. A non revenue item made up almost 28% of their revenue last quarter. WING has turned a franchisee expense into a revenue stream? Seems shady!

    2. Company owned stores inflate revenue as they add a few stores each year and also made up just over 28% of the revenue last quarter. They own 29 stores of 1300+ stores and that accounts for 28% of revenue. They showed over a 20% increase in revenue in company stores, but the vast majority came from adding the 3 stores they picked up from franchisees.

    Together these two scenes made up 56% of the companies revenue?

    3.
  • c
    clark
    Here’s my rundown of the quarter’s results:

    Revenue went up ~$11.5.5M or a little over 31% yoy, which sounds great, but is misleading because of a big change from last year to this year. The advertising fee went from 3%-4% which brought in a little over $5M of additional revenue, which was matched by a similar increase in advertising expense. If you back out the advertising revenue from both quarters, the increase in revenue from restaurants (both company and franchise) was about $6.4 or 22.3%. Still healthy, but not what it first seemed. I think the increase in the advertising fee was a great move. It’s a cost entirely borne by the franchisees, that drove the phenomenal 12.8% same store sales comp, which boosts the company’s take. As long as it doesn’t piss off the franchisees, and they seem to be okay with it it boosts their sales too, it is a huge gain for the company.

    Net income was down by about $1.9M, which means expenses went up that much more than the $11.5M increase in revenue, or went up by $13.4M. Sounds like expenses are out of control, but again, it’s not a true picture. A big chunk of that ($4.8M) was the increased advertising expense. $2.8M was an increase in the cost of sales of the company owned restaurants, which again, was matched by a similar increase in revenue (they added a few company owned locations). The cost of sales was up more than the additional revenue, but not by a lot, and was apparently due to the higher cost of chicken. Now we get to the meaningful increases in expenses. SG&A expense was up $3.3M or about 30%. I’m sure there was some headcount addition, and they talked about ‘investing for the future, but as part of this, the stock based compensation went from $740k to $1.9M, or up by a factor of about 2.5. I noticed a big jump in this expense starting, I think, in the 4th quarter of last year. I suspect management negotiated some lucrative new employment contracts late last year. They deserve it, they’ve done a great job, but it will hit the bottom line for a little while. If the company keeps growing at a healthy clip, the amount will become less and less significant over time. The last big change in expenses was the interest expense. It was up about $2.0M, almost doubling. This is from the special dividend last fall. The company borrowed a lot of money to pay a dividend of a little over $3/share. It was a nice dividend, but now we are paying for it.

    Overall, growth continues at a very healthy clip. I’m blown away by the same store sales comp. I’m sure it will drop back down once they have to compare against quarters with the increased advertising, but I’m hoping for a couple more quarters of double digit growth. Net income is lagging due to the increased interest, and stock based compensation expenses. If you back out the interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (only interest was significant) the EBITDA was up by $600k or about 5.4%. If you also back out the stock based compensation, what they call adjusted EBITDA was up $1.8M or 15.3%. I think we’ll have one more quarter of lagging net income (maybe two, I’m not sure when the increased interest expense kicked in), then we start lapping the increased expenses and the net income should grow once again.