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Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc. (XENE)
NasdaqGM - NasdaqGM Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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At close: 04:00PM EST
498 reactions on $XENE conversation
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Just brought today! Hello all
Wow. Such a big reaction following earnings.. lol
The AH action is from retailers buying in on FOMO as well as potential fund manipulation. Secondary offerings are always priced below market pricing so that they can actually sell the entire share offering. They did not announce the offering price in order to avoid negatively impacting the AH price because if the stock dropped significantly AH, then they would have to lower the secondary offering price. The question is how much will they have to discount the price in order to sell all $250M worth of newly issued stock.
It's amazing that people are buying shares after hours. The dilution from the announced offering is 18%+ of current market cap!
Taking my CCXI profit to -> CALA Q4 play with catalysts ahead;
CALA ~>✅2 significant data catalysts coming up in Q4 (which started yesterday);
✅$80M cash / no debt / low cash burn
(Analysts are on $CALA for Keapsake data giving >100% upside potential on interim study results Q4) $25B market for NSCLC
(Also new Phase 1b interim data to be presented at North American Cystic Fibrosis conference Nov 2-5) $8B market for CB
✅Licensed their CD73 with Antengene earlier this year - Calithera will receive an upfront payment and potential development, regulatory and sales milestones of up to $255.0 million.
$CRVS ran 277% earlier this month after AstraZeneca CD73 Success, as it’s the only baby bio with CD73 that isn’t partnered...
✅Consolidation on chart for 6 months now, with significant catalysts ahead $2.50 break needed for a bigger move
✅Per 8-k in September 2021; they reached a Settlement agreement with Incyte - who will pay $CALA for missing 2 milestone payments after a licensing deal signed in 2017
✅Good Tutes like BVF, Primecap Management, and Adage all hold.
✅(BVF disclosed ownership of 7,452,331 shares in July an increase of 70% from their February 2021 filing to become 10% owner / major shareholder)
BVF was the main institution behind the $FPRX turnaround last year which went from $4s ~> $38 in a $1.9B Buyout by Amgen after a bidding war
$XENE $RSLS $VYGR
Look out below!! Read today’s SEC filing. It discusses the immediate dilution to $21.68 per share without the underwriters exercising their rights to sell more. If they do, then the dilution is even larger.
This feels like it's being held up by investment banks to sell the new offering and then dump the shares on the open market
This stock is way over leveraged, the trial results really don't justify the massive pump. I think this will drop to the low to mid 20's in the early morning sell off. With the looming offering coming it is almost a certainty. If it makes it past the morning sell off in the lower 30's it will still need to retrace in order to build up some consolidation and support. Fundamentally this will drop like a ton of bricks without taking a break.
My take: Simply propped up by the underwriters for 2 days instead of 1 this time around. They did that due to the EXTREME size of the share offering. There's no volume anymore though, so good luck dumping that $250m of shares on this group. YIKES! The bottom line: It will dive to around $25 a share, but that could happen at end of day, or after hours, or tomorrow.
The most amazing thing is that there is no restriction on the sale. So these people buying for 29.50 today can immediately sell it for 33, making an easy 10% in one day with no risk. Talk about a sweet deal...
Massive dilution just hit the wires -- $250 mln common share offering.
Short 500 shares at $31! It will drop to $20 in next couple days
Look at the intraday chart and now tell me this isn't being traded around the offering price by investment banks. Watch out for the hammer soon!
News out soon. Great setup technically.
Funny..when it starts to slide a few thousand shares flood in and raise the price to $32 every time...?
Looks like the MMs are done holding this up—RBC, Stifel, etc. must be done getting their clients out of the secondary offering.
"The purpose of using pre-funded warrants is to provide investors that have restrictions on their ability to own a company’s securities. Pre-funded warrants allow the company to receive almost all of the cash proceeds at a time when the company’s underlying valuation is likely difficult to obtain or uncertain."
Since the announcement of a new offering was announced after hours today, I did an analysis on the last 13 biotech/pharma companies that made a similar announcement like this, and I observed that:
* don't move the day of the announcement
* From closing to the next day, it also doesn't move - even from the day of announcement to the next day at 9:30 AM ET
* The next day of the announcement, it doesn't move (maybe only 0.5%).
* However, after 1 week, the stock, on average, moves DOWNWARD 3%. When I look a little deeper, I see that the shares can have a 54% chance of it moving downwards by -15% or there's a 46% of moving up 11%. Take a weighted-average calculation, and you'll see that my nubers add up here.
Since $XENE's secondary public offering was announced after-hours, I have numbers that suggest that it will have a 38% chance of going up 14% or a 62% chance of going down -8% on Tuesday, October 5th.
Stock offering price is not the bottom of the dip.
Do some research yourself, you will find out more than 75% stock will break their offering price within 2weeks after the stock offering.
Im thinking it will tank to the high teens like 17/18 its got no more fuel left in the tank.
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