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Crude oil markets fell significantly during the week, reaching down below the lows of the previous week and beyond. However, there are some signs of support below, so I think this next week or two are going to be very crucial as to where we go next in both grades that we follow here at FX Empire.
Gold markets spent the majority of the week falling but got a bit of a reprieve on Friday as Donald Trump suggested that interest rates in the United States should remain low, and perhaps rate hikes should be on hold. Of course, he doesn’t have that power so the market reacting the way it has on Friday is a bit of a head scratcher.
The GBP/USD pair rallied rather significantly during the trading session on Friday, reaching towards a critical supply area near the 1.3075 handle after Donald Trump tweeted that the US dollar was being unfairly strengthened as interest rates around the world it remained far too low. For some reason, market participants read this as a sign that interest rates were going to be put on hold in the United States. The funny thing is, he doesn’t have that power and just ½ an hour before one of the Federal Reserve governors reiterated the need to continue to raise rates.
Investing.com – WTI crude oil prices settled higher Friday, supported by a weaker dollar and signs of tightening in U.S. output. But they failed to avert and second-straight weekly loss.
Yesterday, US crude oil’s implied volatility was 24.4%, 3.2% below its 15-day average. The inverse relationship between oil prices and oil’s implied volatility is illustrated in the graph below. Since reaching a 12-year low in February 2016, US crude oil active futures have risen 165%. Crude oil’s implied volatility has fallen ~67.5% since February 11, 2016.
MARKET PULSE U.S. oil prices climbed Friday, extending gains from a day earlier when comments from Saudi Arabia's OPEC governor eased concerns over the potential for an oversupplied market. Rising U.
Oil prices rose on Friday as a weakening dollar and lower expected August oil exports from Saudi Arabia supported the market, offsetting concerns about U.S.-China trade tensions and supply increases. U.S. crude strengthened late in the session as the U.S. dollar index slipped to a four-day low, on reports that U.S. President Donald Trump worries that the Federal Reserve will raise rates twice this year. The expiring U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for August delivery was up $1.50 cents at $70.96 a barrel by 2:23 p.m. EDT [1823 GMT], while the more liquid September contract rose 14 cents to $68.38 a barrel.
Yesterday, natural gas’s implied volatility was 19.6%, ~4.4% below its 15-day moving average. In the last week, natural gas’s August futures have fallen 1%, and its implied volatility has fallen ~2.5%. Since June, these two variables have been moving together .
Yesterday, US crude oil September futures rose 0.7% and settled at $68.24 per barrel. Meanwhile, oil-weighted stocks Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), Apache (APA), Denbury Resources (DNR), and California Resources (CRC), which benefit from higher oil prices, rose 0.4%, 0.2%, 0.5%, and 0.3%, respectively.
Oil prices have lost more than 8% this month, but investors should be aware that a roughly 40% spike from last week’s levels to more than $100 is possible this year.
PointLogic estimates that US dry natural gas production fell 0.7% to 80 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on July 12–18. However, the production has risen 11% year-over-year.
Between July 11 and July 18, our list of natural gas–weighted stocks fell 4.2% while natural gas August futures fell 3.8%. On average, natural gas–weighted stocks underperformed natural gas futures in this period. Let’s take a look at the natural gas–weighted stocks that have outperformed natural gas prices in the last five trading sessions: Cabot Oil & Gas (COG): rose 1.2% Range Resources (RRC): fell 2.7%
The S&P 500 Index fell ~0.4% to 2,804.49 on July 19. The index fell due to disappointing second-quarter earnings results from some of the S&P 500 companies and escalating trade tensions between the US and Europe. The European Union could impose tariffs on goods imported from the US. Six out of the 11 key sectors in the S&P 500 fell on July 19.
The natural gas–weighted stocks on our list that are sensitive to US crude oil September futures’ movements based on their last five trading sessions’ correlations with US crude oil September futures are as follows: Chesapeake Energy (CHK): 82.9% Range Resources (RRC): 59.8% Antero Resources (AR): 47.3% Southwestern Energy (SWN): 25.4%
Approximately 36.4% of the Wall Street analysts rated Whiting Petroleum (WLL) as a “buy,” 45.5% rated it as a “hold,” and ~12% rated it as “underperform.”
Oasis Petroleum’s (OAS) production guidance range for Q2 2018 is 76.0–80.5 Mboepd (thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day). Oasis Petroleum expects this growth to be driven by the Williston (Bakken) and Delaware basins. OAS was a pure-play Bakken player until it announced its Permian basin acquisition last year.
On July 18, natural gas August futures fell 0.7% and settled at $2.72 per MMBtu (million British thermal units)—the lowest closing level since May 4. Oversupply concerns in the face of weak demand could be behind the decline. Moreover, the forecast of cooler summer weather is another worry for natural gas bulls.
Between July 11 and July 18, our list of oil-weighted stocks fell 2.4%, while US crude oil September futures fell 1.6%. Below are the oil-weighted stocks that have seen the largest increases in the last five trading sessions: RSP Permian (RSPP): rose 3.9% Concho Resources (CXO): rose 3.8% WPX Energy (WPX): rose 1.4%
On July 18, US crude oil September futures rose 0.9% and closed at $67.75 per barrel. In the last three trading sessions, US crude oil September futures have been struggling to close above the $68.00 mark.
The current implied volatility in Whiting Petroleum (WLL) is ~57.24%—0.49% higher than its 15-day average of 56.96%. In contrast, the broader energy sector, represented by the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), has an implied volatility of ~17.8%—5.86% lower than the 15-day average of ~18.91%.
The correlation between National Oilwell Varco’s (NOV) stock price and crude oil prices on April 16–July 16 was 0.52. The correlation shows that there’s a strong positive relationship between National Oilwell Varco stock and crude oil prices.
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