DB - Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
7.26
+0.07 (+0.97%)
At close: 4:00PM EST
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Previous Close7.19
Open7.28
Bid0.00 x 36200
Ask0.00 x 41800
Day's Range7.26 - 7.31
52 Week Range6.44 - 9.47
Volume2703662
Avg. Volume5,074,871
Market Cap15B
Beta (3Y Monthly)1.62
PE Ratio (TTM)N/A
EPS (TTM)-1.12
Earnings DateN/A
Forward Dividend & YieldN/A (N/A)
Ex-Dividend Date2017-05-19
1y Target Est5.51
  • Deutsche paints gloomy picture
    Reuters Videos

    Deutsche paints gloomy picture

    Deutsche Bank has been trying to revive its fortunes - it's been tough going. And now Germany's biggest lender is paring back its growth target. Core banking revenue, it said on Tuesday (December 10), will grow by just one per cent in the run up to 2022. That's half the level estimated only months ago. To blame, say analysts: a gloomy economic backdrop - and the ECB. Its ultra-loose monetary policy has battered savings and bank profits ... And got a major thumbs down from Deutsche boss Christian Sewing ... When the central bank cut rates in September. SOUNDBITE) (German) DEUTSCHE BANK CEO, CHRISTIAN SEWING, SAYING: "Macroeconomically, a further rate cut at the current level will fizzle out. It will only push asset prices further up and burden savers." Tuesday also saw a return to favour for its investment banking unit. In July, Deutsche began cutting 18,000 jobs as it beat a retreat from equities trading. But the remainder of the division is now seen as a growth driver - with a 2 per cent revenue increase pencilled by 2022. With a recent past marred by heavy losses, regulatory fines and litigation. Deutsche is currently under investigation over links to Danske Bank's 200 billion euros money laundering scandal. Its overall progress in restructuring, though, had, said Sewing, made "significant progress".

  • Court rules Deutsche Bank must hand over Trump's financial records
    Reuters Videos

    Court rules Deutsche Bank must hand over Trump's financial records

    In a major blow to U.S President Donald Trump, a federal appeals court on Tuesday ruled that Deutsche Bank and Capital One had to comply with congressional subpoenas and hand over years of Trump's private financial records to House Democrats. The Manhattan-based 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals rejected Trump's bid to block two House of Representatives committees from enforcing the subpoenas, which were issued in April, months before the impeachment inquiry began. Two House Committees had asked Deutsche Bank for records related to Trump, three of his children and the Trump organization. They also requested that Capitol One hand over records related to the Trump Organization's hotel business. Lawmakers said these requests are part of a wider investigation into money laundering and foreign influence over U.S. politics. Deutsche Bank has long been a principal lender for Trump's real estate business. A 20-17 disclosure form showed that Trump had at least $130 million dollars of liabilities to the bank. Congressional investigators have already identified possible failures in Deutsche Bank's money laundering controls in its dealings with Russian oligarchs… AND in 20-17, the Bank agreed to pay regulators in the U.S. and Britain over $600 million dollars in fines for organizing $10 billion dollars in sham trades that could have been used to launder money out of Russia. Trump has broken from tradition by not releasing his tax returns as a candidate in 2016 and as president. He is expected to appeal the latest ruling to the Supreme Court, where he is already appealing two other lower court decisions requiring the disclosure of his financial records.

  • Deutsche Bank Affirms Targets, ECB Reduces Capital Requirement
    Zacks

    Deutsche Bank Affirms Targets, ECB Reduces Capital Requirement

    Deutsche Bank's (DB) transformation strategy is in line with the bank's plan and as well ahead in various areas as announced at its Investor Deep Dive.

  • Reuters

    UPDATE 2-Russia says its money laundering crackdown has halved suspicious cash operations

    Russia has considerably reduced suspicious cash operations in the last nine months, preventing 886 billion roubles ($14 billion) from being taken into the shadow economy, the head of Russia's financial monitoring agency said on Wednesday. Suspicious cash withdrawals in Russia have fallen 52% in the last nine months, said Rosfinmonitoring head Yuri Chikhanchin, adding that the amount of suspicious withdrawals abroad has fallen to 522 billion roubles in the last nine months from 1.5 trillion roubles in 2016.

  • Financial Times

    BofA chief joins chorus of bank bosses predicting strong end to year

    Bank of America chief executive Brian Moynihan has joined a chorus of US bankers predicting a strong end to the year for trading and investment banking. Mr Moynihan told investors on Wednesday that the two divisions would record higher fourth-quarter revenues than a year earlier, a day after upbeat remarks from senior executives at Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs. fourth quarter in some of Wall Street’s biggest businesses in 2018, including double-digit percentage declines in fixed-income revenues at each of the big five banks in a period when investment banking revenues also fell for all major players except JPMorgan.

  • Yes Bank Needs an Arranged Match, Or It’s No Bank
    Bloomberg

    Yes Bank Needs an Arranged Match, Or It’s No Bank

    (Bloomberg Opinion) -- Yes Bank Ltd.’s latest $2 billion rescue plan was perfect except for one minor detail: Most suitors for the beleaguered Indian lender aren’t the kind the board can really take to meet the regulator for tea. Yet in a five-hour meeting Tuesday, the directors decided to do exactly that. Jane Austen would have been proud of their desperation to marry off Yes.Take Erwin Singh Braich, a mysterious Canadian tycoon offering to post three-fifths of the money together with a partner. Braich says he’s Canada’s richest man, but he “has no headquarters, no banker to manage his money, and is currently living in a three-star motel in the Canadian prairies,’’ write Bloomberg News reporters Natalie Obiko Pearson and Suvashree Ghosh. Braich, they show, is also the subject of a 1999 involuntary bankruptcy — orchestrated, he claims, by opponents, including his brother — which remains undischarged with more than C$13 million ($10 million) in total liabilities. But Yes Bank believes his binding offer deserves to remain on the table, so there it will be.Two other interested buyers — Hong Kong-based SPGP Holdings, bidding jointly with Braich, and London-based Citax Holdings Ltd. — have previously shied away from putting up small sums to acquire Indian businesses in bankruptcy. In a note, Suresh Ganapathy, the Macquarie Capital Securities banking analyst in Mumbai, expressed “serious reservations regarding the quality of the board of directors who are willing to consider these kinds of investors to be large shareholders.”The board doesn’t express an iota of self-doubt. It’s “willing to favorably consider” the $500 million offer by Citax, and decide on allotting shares in the next meeting of directors, “subject to requisite regulatory approvals,” Yes said. If those permissions materialize, they’ll show the Reserve Bank of India, the regulator, to be even more desperate than Yes.As I’ve written before, Yes is skating on a thin layer of capital. And that’s scary. Confidence in India’s bad-loan-laden banking system is ebbing; depositors are seething over regulatory restrictions placed on accessing their own money in a failed cooperative bank. Yes, India’s fifth-largest private-sector lender, can’t be left adrift much longer. But the RBI is so distracted fighting other fires that it would rather not have to think about Yes.If not now, when? It’s been nine months since former Deutsche Bank AG executive Ravneet Gill became chief executive officer with a mandate to clean up the bank, whose asset quality was destroyed by the previous owner-manager’s cavalier underwriting. It’s been seven months since the central bank used special powers to appoint a former deputy governor as a director. But for all the chaperoning and assurances from Gill, especially about raising funds, the outlook is getting bleaker.Gross nonperforming loans jumped to 7.4% of total assets in September from 5% in June. Last month, the bank disclosed that the regulator had found its nonperforming assets on March 31 to be $460 million higher than it had reported earlier. “This is the third year when RBI has identified a divergence in the bank's reported financials,” Moody's Investors Service said, while lowering the bank’s credit rating by two levels to B2, deep into junk-bond territory. That cut is bound to complicate the bank’s ability to attract fresh deposits from institutions at a time when current account and savings account deposits — the cheapest source of financing — plunged 14% from a year earlier in the September quarter.A $273 million share sale in August has shored up the Tier 1 equity ratio to 8.7%, but it’s a temporary reprieve. Yes has a quarter of its assets tied up as credit to shadow banks, real estate, and engineering and construction companies, some of the most dangerously fund-starved industries in India. IDFC Securities Ltd. estimates $7 billion of stressed loans at Yes. Assuming 65% eventually goes bad, the slippage would be more than the bank’s net worth.It’s perhaps time to work off that very assumption. Merging the bank with a bigger franchise such as ICICI Bank Ltd. or Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. at a next-to-nil equity value would be a better option than continuing the ongoing fundraising charade. In other words, Yes, which has lost 87% of its market value since August 2018, needs an arranged match, brokered by the RBI.Braich, the Canadian suitor, said he loves the logo: “If it was called ‘No Bank,’ I wouldn’t have been interested.” Even if a joke, this is serious. The shock to India’s broken financial system risks being even bigger than the collapse of infrastructure financier IL&FS Group in September 2018. The regulator must act before Yes Bank becomes, for all practical purposes, no bank at all.  To contact the author of this story: Andy Mukherjee at amukherjee@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Patrick McDowell at pmcdowell10@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Andy Mukherjee is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering industrial companies and financial services. He previously was a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews. He has also worked for the Straits Times, ET NOW and Bloomberg News.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Deutsche Bank Goes Back to Its Old Ways
    Bloomberg

    Deutsche Bank Goes Back to Its Old Ways

    (Bloomberg Opinion) -- Christian Sewing has tried to cast an optimistic light on Deutsche Bank AG’s future as he undertakes the lender’s deepest restructuring in decades. The chief executive officer told staff he’d been looking forward to updating the market on his progress five months into the overhaul.The disclosures from that update, at the bank’s investor day on Tuesday, are more sobering: The skeptics are right to worry about Deutsche’s ability to increase its revenue while shrinking. Profit is also at risk.Sewing’s assumptions on interest rates when he unveiled his revamp in July were too bullish. The bank is now counting on a spike in revenue at its scaled-backed securities unit to hit its overall targets, another acknowledgement that things aren’t going to plan. His changes were meant to rein in the company’s dependence on volatile trading businesses.Back in July, Sewing was heralding a return to the 150-year-old bank’s corporate finance and trade finance roots. Yet after a strong start to fixed-income trading in the fourth quarter, the recently scorned investment bank is making Sewing proudest, he told employees on Tuesday.Deutsche now expects revenue growth at its core businesses of just 1% a year through 2022, half its previous forecast. Sales at the investment bank should increase 2% annually, compared to a previous estimate of no growth. Sewing has also dialed back his objectives for consumer banking and asset management.The trading unit’s recovery is remarkable after a torrid third quarter, during which Deutsche lagged behind its Wall Street competitors in bonds and currencies. While Sewing said his reorganization was helping the bank’s trading of emerging markets debt and interest rates, relying on the investment bank again to improve revenue is a gamble. This doesn’t feel like a different direction.It’s probably too soon to assess the impact of Deutsche’s exit from equity trading, though some clients have been returning. The fourth quarter is expected to be strong too for other Wall Street and European investment banks, according to analysts at KBW, so it’s hard hard to say how much of Deutsche’s improvement is unique.In fairness, there was some genuinely good news on Tuesday. Cost-cutting targets were reaffirmed, and the bank is getting rid of unwanted assets more quickly than expected.Regulators have certainly taken note of Deutsche’s efforts to reduce its riskiness. The European Central Bank has lowered the bank’s capital requirement for 2020. That’s a welcome sign that the lender may be able to fund its reorganization without having to tap investors. With the shares trading near record lows, valuing the bank at about 30% of its tangible book, Sewing desperately wants to avoid a rights issue.For now the CEO is sticking to a 2022 target for an 8% return on tangible equity, although he acknowledged that market headwinds will make that tougher to achieve. His revenue ambitions have become more realistic, but counting on a continued rebound at the investment bank is exactly what he’s meant to be avoiding.  To contact the author of this story: Elisa Martinuzzi at emartinuzzi@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: James Boxell at jboxell@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Elisa Martinuzzi is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering finance. She is a former managing editor for European finance at Bloomberg News.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Bloomberg

    Deutsche Bank Vows to Avoid Capital Raise as ECB Cuts Burden

    (Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Bank AG Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing vowed that the bank will execute one of the largest restructurings in its history without the need for extra shareholder funds as he seeks to build credibility with investors.The lender’s common equity Tier 1 ratio -- a key metric of financial strength -- will be above 13% throughout the end of the year, while the lender’s main regulator reduced its capital burden on the bank for next year as Sewing begins to shrink and simplify Germany’s biggest lender. The bank has said that it wants to keep its CET1 level at 12.5% or higher through 2022.Sewing is rolling back years of aggressive expansion, when Deutsche Bank sought to compete as a global securities firm, and bolstering controls to avoid a repeat of misconduct charges that eroded its financial strength and reputation alike. The CEO is funding the overhaul by running a lower capital buffer, prompting some analysts to say the margin for error is slim and that the lender could be forced to tap long-suffering shareholders for fresh cash.The bank “can stick to our commitment to manage our transformation without asking our shareholders for more capital,” Sewing said in a message to staff accompanying the bank’s first investor update in four years on Tuesday. Under previous CEOs, the company raised about 30 billion euros ($33.2 billion) in four capital increases since the financial crisis.Citigroup Inc. analysts said last month that they cannot rule out a “highly dilutive” capital increase until there is more clarity on how European regulators implement new banking standards. Deutsche Bank’s common equity Tier 1 ratio stood at 13.4% at the end of September. The key driver of Deutsche Bank’s lower capital bar is a decline in the ECB’s so-called Pillar 2 requirement, an assessment of the risk an individual lender poses.That component will fall to 2.5% next year from 2.75% in 2019, the highest level among the euro area’s 10 biggest banks by assets While several other lenders had seen their ECB-set requirements decline in recent years, Deutsche Bank’s 2.75% bar hadn’t budged since 2017, company filings show.Banks need capital to absorb losses rather than being forced to ask taxpayers for help if they run into trouble. The issue also matters to investors and staff because falling below the requirements triggers restrictions on dividends and bonuses.Andrea Enria, who leads the ECB’s oversight arm, said last month that bank capital requirements are “levelling off” as repairs to Europe’s banking sector after the financial crisis come to an end.(Updates with CEO comments in fourth paragraph)To contact the reporter on this story: Nicholas Comfort in Frankfurt at ncomfort1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Dale Crofts at dcrofts@bloomberg.net, Keith CampbellFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Financial Times

    Deutsche Bank raises revenue target for investment bank

    Mr Sewing told analysts at the bank’s capital markets day on Tuesday that the investment banking division’s revenues in October and November were “well ahead of last year” as its fixed income and currencies trading business generated “healthy double-digit growth” during those two months. On Tuesday Deutsche raised its objectives for the investment bank, boosting targets for the division’s average annual revenue growth rate from zero to 2 per cent by 2022. It is now targeting a return on tangible equity of 7 to 8 per cent by 2022 in the investment bank, ahead of the previous goal of more than 6 per cent. Last year, the return stood at just 2 per cent.

  • Financial Times

    Deutsche to cut €100m from domestic retail banking unit

    Deutsche Bank plans to cut about €100m in annual costs by streamlining its corporate structure in German retail banking, as chief executive Christian Sewing prepares to face investors on Tuesday. The German lender plans to scrap the separate legal entity that runs its domestic retail banking operations, which is called Deutsche Bank Privat- und Firmenkundenbank AG (PFK), and merge it into the group structure, according to people familiar with the situation.

  • Deutsche paints gloomy picture at investor gathering
    Reuters

    Deutsche paints gloomy picture at investor gathering

    Deutsche Bank pared back its revenue growth target on Tuesday, highlighting the tough task facing Germany's biggest lender to revive its fortunes against a gloomy economic backdrop. Deutsche's management gave a presentation to investors on its restructuring which aims to shift the bank away from Wall Street to its home market of Germany as it seeks to draw a line under years of scandals and heavy losses. To arrive at that overall target, the bank cut growth forecasts for retail banking and wealth management to zero but predicted that its long-suffering investment bank would generate 2% more in earnings by 2022.

  • U.K. elections could be the beginning of the end of the EU
    MarketWatch

    U.K. elections could be the beginning of the end of the EU

    In Thursday’s elections, Boris Johnson has a decent shot at winning a workable majority in Parliament to pull the U.K. out of the European Union. This could be a turning point for Europe—rather than enabling consolidation of the continental bloc, Brexit will provide the contrast that blows it apart. The Conservative Party is running on a platform to push through a transition agreement to leave the European Customs Union and accomplish simple free trade.

  • Reuters

    Deutsche Bank names new regulatory affairs head

    Deutsche Bank named Christian Berendes, a veteran of more than 20 years at Germany's largest lender, as its new head of government and regulatory affairs on Monday. Berendes will succeed Karin Dohm, who has led the department for four years and will take on new responsibilities, in January, Deutsche Bank said in a statement.

  • Deutsche Bank Fined EUR15M for Money-Laundering Scandal
    Zacks

    Deutsche Bank Fined EUR15M for Money-Laundering Scandal

    Deutsche Bank (DB) and Frankfurt prosecutors reach a settlement for 15 million euros ($16.5 million), related to the probe of German client interactions with foreign companies set up by Regula Ltd.

  • Deutsche Bank Seen ‘Fine-Tuning’ Goals as Headwinds Increase
    Bloomberg

    Deutsche Bank Seen ‘Fine-Tuning’ Goals as Headwinds Increase

    (Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Bank AG Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing addresses shareholders on Tuesday, five months into a historic restructuring that so far has failed to arrest a long decline in revenue.Sewing, who is scheduled to speak at the bank’s first investor day in four years, can point to success in selling down unwanted assets and reducing costs. But investors are likely to press him on how he wants to meet mid-term targets and what he’s doing to offset headwinds. Plans for the once mighty fixed-income unit may also feature prominently.“We expect only fine-tuning to targets, acknowledging a more difficult outlook” for revenue, Credit Suisse Group AG analysts led by Jon Peace wrote in a note on Thursday. The bank’s profitability target could become more sensitive to the economic and market environment, the analysts wrote.What’s the biggest challenge?Investors are concerned that Sewing will struggle to reverse a protracted decline in revenue, especially from trading fixed-income securities. The bank has already had to walk back its revenue goal, in part because its assumptions about interest rates and the economy were too optimistic. Third-quarter earnings showed all but one of the businesses Sewing is keeping continued to shrink.Sewing had initially pledged to lift revenue in the core bank to 25 billion euros ($27.7 billion) by 2022, equal to an annual growth rate of 2%. The bank has since softened that goal to between 24 billion euros and 25 billion euros.“We fear revenue attrition will be worse than the company expects,” Citigroup Inc. analysts led by Andrew Coombs wrote in recent note. A capital increase by the bank can’t be ruled for as long as it hasn’t provided estimates of the impact from new capital requirements, the analysts wrote.What’s going to happen to the investment bank?Deutsche Bank’s investment banking heads -- Mark Fedorcik for the business of advising companies on deals and raising money, and Ram Nayak for fixed-income trading -- are likely to tell investors that the actions they’re taking will eventually stem the unit’s long decline. The lender has highlighted its leading role on various initial public offerings since the strategy announcement as a way to show it can keep market share despite the restructuring.Revenue from deal advisory rose last quarter, but it’s been contracting in other parts and overall in the division. Analysts don’t predict this will change anytime soon. The bank has also been debating how much to cut back the business of trading securities linked to interest rates.What will the bank say about efforts to grow?The corporate bank under Stefan Hoops is central to Sewing’s plan for growing the lender. Among other things, the division will discuss a project called contextual banking that will enable companies to finance certain assets on a pay-per-use basis, the unit’s digital head, Thomas Nielsen, said at a conference on Wednesday.The retail unit now, known as Private Bank, will likely highlight attempts to lift prices for services, said people familiar with the matter. The bank has recently stepped up its effort to offset the margin pressure from negative interest rates, partly by charging clients for large deposits or introducing fees on some basic services such as checking accounts that used to be free.The division, led by President Karl von Rohr, may also announce a decision to dissolve the separate legal structure around its German unit, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private information. The plan could save the bank more than 100 million euros in annual costs, people briefed on the matter have said previously.What’s it done to shrink?One achievement Sewing can tout is the bank’s progress on ridding itself of unwanted assets since it moved them into a wind-down unit, led by Ashley Wilson and Louise Kitchen. The lender has begun to transfer the business that services hedge funds to BNP Paribas SA and sold various portfolios of assets including equity derivatives and emerging-market debt, people familiar with the matter have said.At the same time, some analysts have expressed concern at the high losses the wind-down unit has been incurring. Analysts surveyed by the bank expect the division’s pretax loss to hit 3.2 billion euros this year and 2.2 billion euros in 2020.Deutsche Bank has also continued to cut costs and said previously that it’s on track to meet its target to keep costs adjusted for restructuring expenses below 21.5 billion euros this year, and below 17 billion euros in 2022. Analysts doubt Sewing can reach the latter goal.What’s in store for the bank’s asset manager DWS?The bank’s asset management arm DWS, which has been publicly traded since early 2018, will hold a separate investor event on the same day. Like the CEO of his parent company, DWS chief Asoka Woehrmann has highlighted cost savings and a stronger focus on sustainability products as a way to lift profit.Sewing has said he wants to turn DWS into a top 10 asset manager globally, an ambitious goal. Woehrmann has said he will need to take over another large company to achieve that target. Deutsche Bank earlier this year held informal talks with UBS Group AG about merging both banks’ asset management units, but those discussions fell apart.(Updates with details on costs in 14th paragraph)\--With assistance from Nicholas Comfort.To contact the reporter on this story: Steven Arons in Frankfurt at sarons@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Dale Crofts at dcrofts@bloomberg.net, Christian BaumgaertelFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Speed of Euro's Revival May Surprise Forecasters in 2020
    Bloomberg

    Speed of Euro's Revival May Surprise Forecasters in 2020

    (Bloomberg) -- The euro may take pundits by surprise next year by climbing faster than expected.The common currency is seen rising to $1.12 by March before a steady ascent to $1.16 by the end of 2020, up from around $1.1065 now, according to a Bloomberg survey. Yet some analysts could be underestimating the prospects for fiscal stimulus, a growing chorus against the European Central Bank’s sub-zero interest rates and the potential for a pick-up in volatility that would threaten the viability of using the euro as a funding currency for carry trades.An increasing number of banks are becoming more optimistic on the euro’s 2020 prospects. Morgan Stanley is the most bullish on Wall Street, betting on the euro rallying nearly 5% to $1.16 in the first quarter as one of its top trades. ABN Amro Bank NV and Commerzbank AG also see a faster climb to $1.14 by March, as the region’s economy stabilizes and Brexit uncertainty fades. And options traders are betting on gains for the common currency.The new ECB President Christine Lagarde, who will give her first policy meeting announcement Thursday, seems focused on the need for greater fiscal stimulus to tackle the region’s growth and inflation troubles. She has acknowledged that “the ECB’s accommodative policy stance has been a key driver of domestic demand during the recovery, and that stance remains in place,” which in theory supports bets on further interest-rate cuts next year, as current market pricing suggests.This sub-zero monetary stance is being increasingly challenged by euro-zone finance chiefs, complaining about its detrimental impact on savings and pension systems. And they are not alone. Pacific Investment Management Co. warns that negative rates may be doing more harm than good as they squeeze banks’ profitability, depress market returns and create a “money illusion” in which savers feel poorer and thus cut consumption.Policy makers counter that negative rates wouldn’t last so long if governments did more to stimulate their economies. The ECB may end up tweaking its inflation goal to 2% over the medium term, which could finally result in a pick-up in inflation expectations. Then the market may need to start pricing in a move away from negative interest rates, effectively reducing the euro’s allure as a funding currency.This year, the potential for a euro rally -- as predicted by strategists at the start of 2019 -- has been suppressed by the use of the euro as a funding currency. As Europe’s bond yields are among the most negative in the world, when global risk appetite is high investors have sold the euro to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere.Yet some see this carry-trade idea as antiquated, and using the euro as a liability may not be the way forward. Positioning may be largely overstretched, given euro-funded carry trades resulted in returns for 20 of the 23 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg so far this year.A drop in euro volatility to record lows supported these emerging-market currencies as they managed to overcome global risks this year and pare the losses seen in 2018. While traders may be facing a new era in currency volatility, where low expectations are the norm, current levels may not be sustainable for long.A repeat of price action following the summer of 2014, when volatility rebounded from then-record lows to enter a two-year bullish trend, could be due.Current volatility levels reflect a wait-and-see stance by investors on trade talks and Brexit, so any resolution on those events, market friendly or not, may be accompanied by greater price swings that would hurt carry trade positions and therefore support the euro.In the options market, bullish wagers over the one-year horizon stand at their highest level since April 2018, according to risk reversals, a barometer of sentiment and positioning. This has yet to be reflected in the cash market, which has deviated this year from a long-lasting correlation with options trading.From a technical perspective, charts offer something to bulls and bears alike, with a slight bias on holding long positions. The euro is challenging a bearish trend channel that started in early 2018, with key resistance from its 55-weekly moving average coming at $1.1210.A move above that would target $1.1412, the high on June 25. Failure to extend gains would signal the euro is currently at a powerful wave three of a major Elliot Wave formation that started in February 2018, which would eventually target a drop to $1.05.Over the short-term, however, things are more clear, as the euro seems to have established a bottom at $1.0980-90 and looks to test its 233-daily moving average at $1.1186.NOTE: Vassilis Karamanis is an FX and rates strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice(Updates prices throughout.)\--With assistance from Anooja Debnath.To contact the reporter on this story: Vassilis Karamanis in Athens at vkaramanis1@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Dana El Baltaji at delbaltaji@bloomberg.net, Neil Chatterjee, William ShawFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Trump asks Supreme Court to shield banking records
    MarketWatch

    Trump asks Supreme Court to shield banking records

    President Donald Trump and three of his children asked the Supreme Court on Friday to shield records held by Deutsche Bank and Capital One from House Democrats.

  • Deutsche Bank staffers cleared but bank fined in money laundering case
    Reuters

    Deutsche Bank staffers cleared but bank fined in money laundering case

    Frankfurt prosecutors have dropped an investigation into two Deutsche Bank employees accused of aiding tax evasion through a former Virgin Islands unit, although they have fined the lender for compliance lapses. In a two-day raid a year ago, 170 police officers searched Deutsche Bank's headquarters in Frankfurt, hitting its share price just as management was battling with losses and a string of other financial and regulatory scandals. Sources close to the investigation said as recently as July that prosecutors were set to escalate the investigation, planning raids on wealthy former clients after searching the homes of eight people in May.

  • UBS Group Contemplates Restructuring Asset Management Unit
    Zacks

    UBS Group Contemplates Restructuring Asset Management Unit

    UBS Group (UBS) to revamp the company's asset management unit, in a bid to boost its profitability.

  • Financial Times

    Deutsche Bank pays €15m in money laundering settlement

    Frankfurt prosecutors have forced Deutsche Bank to pay out €15m for shortcomings in money-laundering controls but have dropped a criminal investigation into suspected tax evasion at Germany’s biggest lender. and improved its control functions. “The prosecutors have not found any instances of criminal misconduct on the part of Deutsche Bank employees following the raid of our Frankfurt office in November 2018,” a Deutsche spokesman said on Friday, adding that the investigation had a “heavy impact” on the bank last year.

  • Financial Times

    Orange targets growth spurt as it kicks off tower carve-out

    Orange will carve out its mobile towers in Europe from its main business with a view to consolidation or stake sales, as the French telecoms group targets a return to “significant” growth. Several European telecoms companies, including Vodafone, Telefónica, Telecom Italia and Deutsche Telekom, have monetised their towers by splitting them from their core operations.

  • Appeals court sides with Congress in battle for Trump’s bank records
    MarketWatch

    Appeals court sides with Congress in battle for Trump’s bank records

    The House Financial Services and Intelligence committees asked Deutsche Bank and Capital One for records of Trump’s business ventures.

  • Financial Times

    Deutsche Bank ordered to disclose Trump financial records

    from scrutiny as Deutsche Bank was ordered to disclose his records to Congress. The decision on Tuesday by a federal appeals court in New York adds to a string of cases that will probably be ultimately decided by the Supreme Court, which Mr Trump has asked to support his claims of immunity from investigation.