|Bid||49.38 x 2900|
|Ask||49.39 x 1400|
|Day's Range||49.17 - 50.24|
|52 Week Range||36.20 - 65.95|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|YTD Daily Total Return||-8.59%|
|Beta (5Y Monthly)||1.09|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.53%|
Northern Dynasty Minerals (NYSEAMERICAN:NAK) is a junior gold mining company based out of Vancouver. Its primary gold property in Alaska. Unfortunately, it hasn’t gotten to the mining part yet. That’s because its main mineral prospect has been blocked by environmental regulators for years. As a result, NAK stock continues to lose value. Source: Shutterstock Way back in 2011, during the last gold market, NAK stock surged from the single digits up to $22 per share. It seemed like the company’s massive gold prospect might become a windfall asset. It helped matters that gold traded up to $1,900 per ounce at that time as well. Gold slumped following 2011 and Northern Dynasty’s project ended up on the back burner. By 2015, NAK stock had fallen to less than a dollar per share.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips 7 Biotech Stocks With Catalysts That Go Far Beyond Covid-19 Vaccines Setbacks with the EPA during the Obama administration didn’t help either. However, Donald Trump’s win in 2016 along with a rebound in gold, lifted NAK stock back to $3 in 2017. Soon, though, shares fell back to a $1 and lingered there for years as the proposed mine site continued to sit dormant. Bad News Strikes In May 2020, NAK stock finally showed a pulse again. Shares rallied to $2 that summer on hopes of an upcoming regulatory decision on the fate of Northern Dynasty’s Pebble project. With Trump still in office, it seemed like Northern Dynasty might finally get the green light to mine its massive gold deposit in southwest Alaska. However, in November 2020, the Trump administration dropped the bad news: It officially denied the mine permit for Pebble. The U.S. Corps of Engineers said that the project’s plan to discharge fill material failed to comply with the Clean Water Act. A main sticking point for this project was that the world’s largest salmon fishery is right near where the Pebble mine would have been. There was a perceived trade-off between the environment and salmon fishing industry on one side, and the gold mine on the other. In the end, the generally pro-mining Trump team ended up siding with the environment and fishing industry. A Tough Path Forward If Northern Dynasty couldn’t get the mine approved under Trump, how would it happen under President Joe Biden now? In August 2020, then-candidate Biden said bluntly about the Pebble project: “It is no place for a mine.” Elaborating on that, Biden added: “The Obama-Biden administration reached that conclusion when we ran a rigorous, science-based process in 2014, and it is still true today.” It doesn’t get much clearer than that. Three consecutive presidential administrations in opposed the mine. There’s little chance for that to change until 2025, if not later. Meanwhile, Northern Dynasty will continue to run up the costs of keeping its overhead going and its management team paid. Over the past three years, Northern Dynasty has averaged $50 million per year losses. Meanwhile it has generated no revenue for the past decade. With all that in mind, the company’s $323 million market capitalization is huge given that it has no revenues and no realistic path forward for many years to come. NAK Stock Verdict Northern Dynasty’s attempts to build a gold mine in Alaska just haven’t worked out. Regardless of whether it was Obama, Trump, or now Biden, the government just isn’t inclined to approve this mine. Notably, Alaska’s two senators also oppose the mine. Back when Trump was in office and gold was reaching $2,000 per ounce, that was the best chance Northern Dynasty had seen in years. Still, the Trump administration ultimately shot it down. If the mine couldn’t gain approval then, it almost certainly isn’t going to happen now given the more environmentalist government now in place. That’s particularly true with Biden directly voicing opposition to the mine. The slipping price of gold now further diminishes any residual value of the property. NAK stock also got caught in the r/WallStreetBets excitement. There was a huge short squeeze that lifted shares dramatically earlier this year. But that’s hardly reason to own the stock for anything more than a day trade. There’s a lot of decent gold mining companies suffering in big corrections at the moment. The VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDXJ) is down 22% from its recent high, after all. Even in this correction, however, NAK stock is not one of the better options for a buy-the-dip candidate. On the date of publication, Ian Bezek did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. Ian Bezek has written more than 1,000 articles for InvestorPlace.com and Seeking Alpha. He also worked as a Junior Analyst for Kerrisdale Capital, a $300 million New York City-based hedge fund. You can reach him on Twitter at @irbezek. 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The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX) and VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDXJ) are set for their quarterly rebalancing on March 19. This upcoming rebalancing event should further reduce the overlap between the two exchange-traded funds. Source: allstars / Shutterstock.com RBC analyst Wayne Lam expects the Junior Gold Miners ETF to keep adding companies. He noted that investors have become increasingly focused on the junior end of the GDXJ. Lam believes this means there is an increase in the number of firms that are eligible for inclusion. The GDXJ added almost 30 new junior gold companies last year, including 10 in the fourth quarter. He also sees an emphasis on gradually reducing the overlap between the GDXJ and the GDX. Lam said the two ETFs overlap by almost 50% in the companies they include and 70% in market capitalization. The market cap overlap has declined from an average of 80% in 2018 and 2019.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips To be added to the GDX, gold miners must have a market cap of $750 million and trade more than 50,000 shares over the last three months. They are deleted from the ETF if their market cap falls below $450 million or if fewer than 30,000 shares change hands over three months. 8 Stocks to Buy for March To be added to the GDXJ, companies must have a market cap of more than $150 million and a free float of more than 10%. They must also trade more than 250,000 shares over the last six months. Gold miners are deleted from the ETF if their market cap falls below $75 million or their free float dips below 5%. They are also deleted if fewer than 200,000 shares are traded over the last six months. Additions and Deletions Lam expects Northern Star Resources Ltd. (OTCMKTS:NESRF) to be deleted from the GDXJ because of its increased market cap after the recent Saracen merger. He looks for Skeena Resources Ltd. (OTCMKTS:SKREF), Marathon Gold Corp. (OTCMKTS:MGDPF), Jaguar Mining (OTCMKTS:JAGGF) and Calibre Mining Corp. (NYSEMKTS:CXBMF) to be added to the gold ETF. Lam said Kinross Gold Corporation (NYSE:KGC) could also be re-added to the ETF after it was deleted in the fourth quarter. He predicts that Endeavour Silver Corp. (NYSE:EXK) and Gatos Silver Inc. (NYSE:GATO) will be added to the GDX. Gatos is eligible for inclusion above $12.67 per share with a $750 million market cap. Lam said Gatos could face headwinds due to its limited float, but it’s not unlike DRDGOLD Ltd. (NYSE:DRD), which is already in the GDX after having been added in June. DRDGOLD has a 40% float. In the past, companies with smaller float sizes that were added to the GDX saw significant outperformance after the announcement that they were being included. The addition of Gatos to the GDXJ in the fourth quarter caused it to outperform the ETF by more than 78% in the month following its addition. DRDGOLD outperformed the GDX by 38% after it was added in the second quarter of last year. Focus on Silver Miners Increased Since the Big Squeeze Since the recent silver squeeze, Lam estimates that notional liquidity in junior silver miners has increased by an average of 60% quarter-over-quarter. That puts several of these companies within the liquidity threshold to be included in the GDXJ. However, he believes several quarters of sustained trading liquidity may be required before the ETF considers them for inclusion. Silver firms that have surpassed the threshold this quarter could be eligible to be included at some point in the future. They include Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (OTCMKTS:MYAGF), GoGold Resources (OTCMKTS:GLGDF), Silver Mines (OTCMKTS:SLVMF) and Golden Minerals (NYSEAMERICAN:AUMN). Details on the GDX and GDXJ Gold ETFs According to Lam, the GDX has seen about $1.1 billion in outflows during the first quarter so far. Total assets under management in the GDX and GDXJ is down by about 17% quarter-over-quarter. The GDX provides exposure to 51 gold and silver miners. Its top-10 holdings are Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM), Barrick Gold (NYSE:GOLD), Franco Nevada Corp. (NYSE:FNV), Newcrest Mining (OTCMKTS:NCMGY), Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (NYSE:WPM), Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE:AEM), Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd. (NYSE:KL), Kinross Gold Corp., Northern Star Resources and Anglogold Ashanti (NYSE:AU). This ETF tries to replicate the price and yield performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index. On the other hand, the GDXJ provides exposure to 89 gold and silver miners and has $5.3 billion in net assets. The ETF’s top-10 holdings are Northern Star Resources, Pan American Silver Corp. (NASDAQ:PAAS), Gold Fields Limited (NYSE:GFI), Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE:AUY), B2Gold Corp. (NYSEAMERICAN:BTG), Evolution Mining Ltd. (OTCMKTS:CAHPF), First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG), Endeavour, SSR Mining Inc. (NASDAQ:SSRM) and Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL). Gold and Silver Stocks on the Rise Constituents of the GDX and GDXJ and the gold ETFs themselves rallied on Monday alongside the gold price. The yellow metal increased by more than 1%. In the GDXJ, Hecla and First Majestic each rallied more than 12%, while Gold Fields and Pan American Silver were each up by about 7%. In the GDX, Newcrest was up almost 6%, while Barrick Gold, Franco Nevada, Wheaton Precious Metals, Agnico Eagle Mines and Zijin Mining Group were each up less than 5%. Craig Erlam of OANDA noted in an email that the U.S. dollar struggled on Monday, extending its losing streak to three days. He also said the dollar index is nearing a key support level that could change the near-term outlook. Although the index had been on a good run and key technical levels were being overcome, the recovery seems to have stalled. “This would naturally be good news for gold, but with U.S. yields rising and still doing so at a decent pace despite pulling back today (Monday), the dollar should remain in favor at the expense of the yellow metal. Of course, if [Fed Chairman Jerome] Powell is very successful in playing down the risks of tapering over the next couple of days, that could change.” Michelle does not own any of the stocks or ETFs in this article. More From InvestorPlace Why Everyone Is Investing in 5G All WRONG Top Stock Picker Reveals His Next Potential Winner It doesn’t matter if you have $500 in savings or $5 million. Do this now. #1 Play to Profit from Biden's Presidency The post These Stocks Could Be Added or Removed From Gold Equity ETFs appeared first on InvestorPlace.
Gold prices are trading near major levels of support, which could be used by traders when determining the placement of buy and stop orders.