|Bid||13.97 x 600|
|Ask||14.36 x 600|
|Day's Range||14.02 - 14.27|
|52 Week Range||11.64 - 15.55|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||18.53|
|Forward Dividend & Yield||0.08 (0.56%)|
|1y Target Est||17.92|
Among the senior mining companies under review in this series (GDX), Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) is trading at the highest EV-to-forward EBITDA (enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) multiple, of 11.5x. As you can see in the graph below, AEM’s EBITDA margin is quite high. The company offers strong production growth, which is supported by a strong project pipeline.
Yamana Gold’s (AUY) stock has also underperformed the gold miners’ index (GDX) year-to-date by returning -6.6% as of April 17. AUY’s 4Q17 results disappointed, with the company reporting earnings far below analysts’ expectations. Its EPS (earnings per share) were -$0.20, below analysts’ estimate of $0.03. The major factor driving the loss was a $356 million non-cash impairment charge related to the remeasurement of its Gualcamayo mine and related expansion projects in Argentina. Investors are wary of Yamana’s inconsistent operational results.
After underperforming its peers in 2017, Goldcorp’s (GG) stock has outperformed YTD (year-to-date). It’s also one of the few major gold stocks to have recorded a positive return YTD performance of 12.5% as of April 17. In comparison, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has fallen 1.5% while the iShares Gold Trust (GLD) has gained 3.0%. Peers Barrick Gold (ABX), Kinross Gold (KGC), and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) have fallen.
Barrick Gold (ABX) generated negative returns amounting to 9.7% year-to-date (or YTD) as of April 17. The stock has significantly underperformed its close peers Goldcorp (GG), Newmont Mining (NEM), and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), which returned 12.5%, 10.9%, and -1.9%, respectively. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) returned -1.5%.
The recent unrest in the markets has had a significant effect on precious metals and mining companies. The US dollar has a prominent role in influencing dollar-denominated precious metals and mining stocks.
Goldcorp Inc (TSX:G) is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 18.9x, which is higher than the industry average of 10.3x. Although some investors may jump to the conclusion thatRead More...
We discussed analysts’ revenue estimates for gold miners in the previous part of this series. In this part, we’ll discuss what analysts expect for these gold miners’ (RING) earnings.
Analyst estimates for gold miners’ (GDX) revenues can give us a good idea about their outlook on gold prices (GLD) as well as companies’ production growth. In this part of our series, we’ll assess analysts’ revenue expectations for gold companies in 1Q18 and beyond. Analysts expect Barrick Gold (ABX) to generate revenues of ~$1.84 billion in 1Q18.
The International Monetary Fund (or IMF) issued an update to its world economic outlook on the eve of IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington this week. The IMF warned that a major trade rift between the US and China could threaten global economic growth, which otherwise should rise solidly this year. The agency still maintained its forecast of 3.9% for global economic growth, which would be the fastest rate of growth since 2011.
At extreme levels, these ratings could even signal a change in direction, so it’s important for investors to track this data. In the senior and intermediate gold miner space (GDX)(GDXJ), analysts are the most bullish on Goldcorp (GG), assigning it 65% “buy” and 5% “sell” ratings.
Gold prices rose ~3% year-to-date (or YTD) after rising ~13% in 2017. Gold prices are affected by a number of factors, including rate hike expectations, trade war fears, the US dollar, and increasing volatility.
Usually, precious-metal-mining companies follow precious metals. Precious metals have risen over the past few days, supporting mining companies.
A new digital marketplace for metals has raised $2.25m in seed funding, with investments from Canadian gold mining group Goldcorp and VC fund Xploration Capital. Launched in September last year, Open Mineral connects miners and their customers such as smelters, looking to buy or sell metal “concentrates”, or mineral ingredients processed into metals including copper and zinc. David Stephens, vice president of corporate development and marketing at Goldcorp, said: “Much of how we conduct business in the physical commodities market has stayed the same for decades.
A classic technical analysis pattern is playing out on the gold ETF chart based on the monthly prices. From the standpoint of classic technical analysis – the kind that John J. Murphy elucidates in Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets – this indicates the potential for reversal. Gold ETF chart. Since this is the case, a decent technical analyst would check for other types of indications to look for confirmation or non-confirmation.
Yesterday, Donald Trump accused Russia and China of devaluing their currencies. Trump tweeted that China and Russia are playing “the currency devaluation game as the U.S. keeps raising interest rates. Not acceptable!” Investors should note that this is a contradiction of the US Treasury, which had maintained that no major trading partners are manipulating their currencies.
Geopolitical risk has been one of the major drivers for equity markets and commodities lately. In the latest development, the US, France, and the United Kingdom launched military strikes on Syria over the weekend. Since the strikes were surgical and the pullback was prompt, risk assets haven’t seen much impact from the strikes yet. However, another round of strikes or Russian retaliation could put the markets in risk-off mode.
While the stock of this gold mining giant has certainly had its ups and downs over the years, the future looks much brighter than the recent past.
Among the senior mining companies under review in this series (GDX), Newmont Mining (NEM) is currently trading at the highest EV-to-forward EBITDA (enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) multiple, of 8.3x. The company’s slower production growth added to its woes in 2017. Its follow-through on its long-term vision of improving reserves, production, and unit costs by 20% each by 2021 could go a long way in further re-rating its multiple. Barrick Gold’s (ABX) higher financial leverage is still a concern for investors, and the recent issues at its Tanzanian mines have added to its woes.
In this part of our series, we’ll look at the correlation between gold and four mining stocks: Royal Gold (RGLD), Goldcorp (GG), Sibanye Gold (SBGL), and Gold Fields (GFI). Mining stocks mostly move with gold prices, but not always. Among these four miners, Gold Fields has shown the highest correlation with gold, while Royal Gold has seen the lowest correlation with gold on a YTD (year-to-date) basis.
On March 12, 2018, RBC (Royal Bank of Canada) downgraded Newmont Mining (NEM) to “underperform” from “sector perform,” and cut NEM’s stock price by $1 to $43. On January 16, 2018, Deutsche Bank (DB) downgraded Newmont from “buy” to “hold.” DB analyst Chris Terry believes that whereas the outlook for commodity prices seems bright, Newmont has a rich valuation and catalysts for the stock have already played out.
Geopolitical tensions and lingering concerns over a trade war might reduce investors' appetite for riskier assets and fuel demand for safe-haven gold.
In 1Q18, gold prices (GLD) rose by just 1%. While gold prices have repercussions on gold miners’ performance based on their leverage, most miners’ price movements in 1Q18 have been driven by company-specific factors such as the release of 2017 results, reserves, and 2018 guidance. Among senior gold miners, analysts are most bullish on Goldcorp (GG), assigning it 65% “buy” and 5% “sell” ratings.
Newmont Mining (NEM) stock rose 2.4% in 1Q18 while Goldcorp (GG) stock rose 4.5%. Newmont Mining reported an earnings beat in 4Q17. The company’s production and unit costs were in line with its guidance.
Barrick Gold (ABX) has underperformed senior and intermediate peers (GDX) (GDXJ) as well as the broader benchmark index (GDX). Barrick has guided for production of 4.5 million–5.0 million ounces of gold in 2018, which implies a ~11% fall from the midpoint of its actual production in 2017. Barrick Gold raised its all-in sustaining cost guidance for 2018 to $765–$815 per ounce.